5G潜在商机报告.pdf

Industry digitalization and the untapped opportunities for operatorsOctober 2017The 5G business potentialSECOND EDITION2 ERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITIONThe 5G market potential Operators can benefit from an additional 36 percent revenue from 5G-enabled industry digitalization market opportunities by 2026.In todays world, telecom operators are facing multiple challenges; increasing demands from consumers and tough pricing competition are only a few of the factors causing market stagnation for the industry. Despite high growth in both mobile subscriptions and mobile data traffic, overall mobile service revenue growth has flattened out, compared to the 10 to 15 percent annual growth a decade ago.1Operators are struggling to turn the growing usage of mobile data services into greater revenues.The current average forecast for operator service revenues is expected to increase by 1.5 percent annually from 2016 to 2026 globally. While this offers a steady revenue stream, it is slim when compared to 5G-enabled revenue growth opportunities in industry digitalization.This report unveils updated 5G industry findings, introducing data from an additional two industries retail and agriculture and adding these to the eight key industries in the first edition of the report. Our latest figures back up and build on the fact that in a competitive marketplace, 5G presents huge financial opportunities for operators over the next decade. Figure 1: Revenue forecast (CAGR 20162026, USD billion)Current operator service revenues Industry digitalization revenues for ICT playersSource: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little2016 2026 2016 20261,4979681,7363,45813.6%1Ericsson Mobile Business Trends, 20151.5%Ericsson worked closely with Arthur D. Little, a leading international management consultancy firm, conducting interviews, consulting leading market reports and liaising with global and local representatives of Ericsson industry practices, as well as Arthur D. Little experts. A conservative view was taken on the findings in this research report, to deliver an authentic interpretation of the impact 5G will have on future markets. The operator-addressable share of revenue is based on the 2017 Arthur D. Little global telecoms study report, Major Strategic Choices Ahead: Reconfiguring for Value, which is based on 150 industry interviews.METHODOLOGY* Industries included: manufacturing, media and entertainment, financial services, public safety, energy and utilities, healthcare, retail, agriculture, automotive, public transportAs the world becomes ever more digitally and globally connected, industries are experiencing an Information Communication Technology (ICT)-driven transformation. For operators, traditional methods of revenue are slowing; however, the market for industry digitalization is only just beginning. Digitalization has risen industrywide across the globe, and it is predicted that digital revenue for ICT players will be worth around USD 3.5 trillion by 2026 across the 10 key industries studied.2Industry digitalization revenues for ICT players come from adopting or integrating digital technologies into a specific industry.3These industry digitalization revenues are substantial even today. In fact, revenues reached USD 968 billion in 2016; operators should consider that this young market is already bearing fruit for those who take the opportunity to reap the financial rewards.Global business trends such as hypercompetition, new customer power and sophistication, the fast-paced change in business ecosystems and disruptive technological advances all affect vertical industries to different extents. Industries are moving towards digitalization for better business outcomes: to increase revenue by better serving their customers, increasing demand, and beating the competition; to decrease costs by increasing productivity and efficiency; and to decrease risk by increasing safety and security.Tomorrows progress begins today5G will be a major technology for growing industry digitalization, creating and enhancing industry digitalization use cases such as autonomous driving, remote robotic surgery and augmented reality (AR) support for field maintenance and repair. Globally, the largest opportunity will be seen in the energy and utilities industry, closely followed by the manufacturing and public safety sectors.Three families of use case scenarios and applications have been identified: Massive machine-type communications requiring connectivity for millions of devices, typically transmitting a relatively low volume of non-delay-sensitive data (low bandwidth and not latency-critical) via low-cost devices with extended battery life, e.g. asset tracking in a warehouse, a factory, or on a farm; or massive numbers of sensors in cars or other machinery to enable predictive maintenance Critical machine-type communications for ultra-reliable, resilient, instantaneous connectivity, with stringent requirements for capabilities such as throughput, latency and availability, e.g. remote medical procedures; drones to inspect remote assets; or remote control of machinery in hazardous conditions Enhanced mobile broadband for mass mobile connectivity, as demand for mobile broadband continues to increase, e.g. enhanced gaming or AR/VR to enhance the shopping experienceERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITION 3DIGITAL transformation2Public safety, manufacturing, financial services, healthcare, energy and utilities, automotive, media and entertainment, public transport, agriculture and retail3In this report, we do not include revenue from the sale of smart objects such as devices, cars, forklifts, or hospital bedsFigure 2: 5G-enabled industry digitalization revenues for ICT players, 2026Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. LittlePublic transportEnergy and utilitiesAutomotiveMedia and entertainmentManufacturingPublic safetyUSD 1,307 billion19%4%6%8%18%13%12%10%9%HealthcareFinancial servicesRetailAgricultureHaving gained an understanding of industry digitalization revenues for ICT players, the study delved into the impact of 5G on key industries. Some 400 industry digitalization use cases were assessed and categorized as 5G created, enhanced or independent.4Based on this assessment the 5G-enabled revenue potential for ICT players in 2026 is estimated to be USD 1.3 billion. Establishing a new identityOne of the objectives of this report was to determine potential revenue growth for operators based on the role of the operator in the industry digitalization value chain. While operators may still profit from focusing on one of the steps in the value chain, they could achieve much larger growth if they embrace every step. Using 5G to solve the key challenges in digitalization for industries (such as manufacturing and automotive), operators can become more than network developers, addressing additional revenue streams by becoming service enablers or even service creators (see Figure 4, page 5). Today, there is already a mix of operator positions in the value chain. Digitalization of industry-specific business processes generates a vast opportunity for operators assisting their customers from various vertical industries with new strategic direction. This B2B2X model represents a market where the operator provides a solution (e.g. connected car capabilities) for a vertical industry customer (e.g. an automotive OEM) which provides the solution to an end user (e.g. a consumer). In other words, the end customer (“X”) is sourcing a non-ICT solution, in which the operators solution is embedded or integrated into the value proposition. Vertical industries outside the ICT sector may not have the necessary experience to provide the solution by themselves. Although operators have the capabilities and technological advantage to offer such ICT services, they will need to focus their organizations engagement, operation and production models to succeed in these B2B2X opportunities.Figure 3: The B2B2X modelWhyistheservicebought?What solution is the end customer sourcing?4 ERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITION4Some of the use cases can be catered for with current 4G technologies, while others require 5G network capabilities. “5G created” means those use cases requiring 5G; “5G enhanced” use cases are those that can employ other technologies such as 4G but are improved by utilizing 5G; while “5G independent” use cases do not need 5G and many of them can be done todayTo succeed in B2B2X opportunities, operators will need to focus their organizations engagement, operation and production modelsTelecom/ITFor input into the value chainFor own consumptionNon-telecom/non-ITB2C B2BIT B2BWholesaleB2B2XBased on the 10 industries examined in the study, the graph above illustrates the potential revenue for operators addressing industry digitalization with 5G in 2026.The three main roles for the operator when it comes to generating revenue through 5G industry digitalization have been identified as follows: Network developers excel in operating network infrastructure, including access, core and transport, and apply powerful IT enablers to support consumers and businesses with uniquely tailored connectivity solutions that maximize the power of digital Service enablers, in addition to empowering connectivity, provide digital platforms on which businesses can easily configure and integrate value-enhancing digital capabilities into their business processes in highly automated ways Service creators create new digital services, build innovative businesses and collaborate beyond telecoms to set up new digital value systems, in addition to providing digital platforms and infrastructure servicesThe 5G value chainFigure 4: Total 5G-enabled revenue (2026, USD billion)Figure 5: Current and 5G-addressable revenues (global)Newaddressable5G-enabledrevenuesCurrent operator servicerevenues01,0005002,0001,5002,500USD bn2016 2020 20242017 2021 20252018 2022 20262019 2023Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. LittleSource: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little1,307Application and service provisioningConnectivity and infrastructure provisioningService enablementTotal 5G-enabled revenue per value chain step230 646 432Operator-addressable share 89% 52% 18%Operator-addressable market for role of network developer204 204Operator-addressable market for role of service enabler204 337 541Operator-addressable market for role of service creator204 337 79 619Sum of addressable 5G revenue per operator rolePotential to add 36% growth in revenues in 2026ERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITION 56 ERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITIONIn 2026, there will be an anticipated USD 619 billion revenue opportunity for telecom operators addressing industry digitalization with 5G technology. The largest opportunity for operator-addressable 5G-related revenues will be in the manufacturing and energy and utilities sectors.As mentioned on page 2, the forecast annual growth for current operator service revenues leading up to 2026 is 1.5 percent. As 5G becomes increasingly integral to industrial businesses, there is a clear rise in the opportunity for new 5G-enabled revenues for operators. In fact, it is predicted that, by addressing 10 key industries, there is a market potential of 36 percent revenue growth globally by 2026. To capture this growth, operators need to take on all three roles in the value chain. Investments in 5G networks (e.g. 5G radio and 5G core), business development, go-to-market models and organizational adaptation are also required.Figure 6: 2026 split per industry (global, USD billion)Public transportEnergy and utilitiesManufacturingPublic safetyHealthcareAutomotiveMedia and entertainmentFinancial servicesRetailAgriculture113101787674624830299Total revenue opportunity for telecom operators = USD 619 billion Disruption from Fintech (technology used to support financial services) due to online payments, e-wallets, etc. Changing customer relations with online/mobile transactions and customized financial solutions Structural changes state involvement, protectionism and fiscal measuresKey industry trends Hypercompetition with no sustainable competitive advantages Increasing volatility from business cycles and product lifecycles Smart factory advancing from developments in the Internet of Things and automation Increasing consumer attention on wellbeing Increasing cost to fit with social demographic changes Increasing demand on quality, patient safety and data storage Changing consumer behavior, freedom of choice and alternative service providersEach of the 10 key industries identified face numerous challenges due to industry trends, which could be addressed with the adoption of 5G digitalization.MANUFACTURING HEALTHCARE Growing public surveillance with video surveillance and wearable cameras Cyber-attacks global integration and the digital economy Engaged and connected citizens Internet of Things in public safety Autonomous driving and a connected traveler with telematics Car sharing and changing commuter habits Electric mobility with decreasing battery costs and a green agenda Digital enterprise and connected supply chain Digital vehicle ecosystemPUBLIC SAFETY AUTOMOTIVE Shifting consumer role as a co-creator of media content Increasingly interactive and immersive forms of entertainment Expansion of digital content through new platforms and new market players (OTT and VOD) Ecosystem complexityMEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENTFINANCIAL SERVICESERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITION 7 Infotainment on the move Urbanization and intermodality Environmental awareness CO2emissions and public spaces Urban lifestyle and growing expectations on public transport Electrification and renewable energy generation New decentralized business models Structural shifts with increasingly retiring assets Political and societal push for sustainable energy systemsPUBLIC TRANSPORT ENERGY AND UTILITIES Increasing use of technology in smart farming Changing agricultural techniques Changing consumer awareness and political requirements e.g. food transparency Changing farming structure, such as vertical integration Seamless e-commerce and omnichannel Increasing use of big data analytics and personalization Unique in-store experience such as AR/VR Smart logistics and in-store operational optimizationAGRICULTURE RETAIL8 ERICSSON REPORT THE 5G BUSINESS POTENTIAL SECOND EDITION The manufacturing industry: Production line roboticsManufacturing is one industry identified from the study that shows a strong market potential for ICT players when addressing 5G industry digitalization. The challenge for manufacturers is to increase productivity, efficiency and flexibility and to enable greater personalization of products and services.5G