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EUROPEAN ECONOMYEconomic and Financial AffairsISSN 2443-8049 (online)4thQuarter 2017TECHNICAL PAPER 022 | JANUARY 2018EU Candidate & Potential Candidate Countries EconomicQuarterly (CCEQ)EUROPEAN ECONOMYEuropean Economy Technical Papers are reports and data compiled by the staff of the European Commissions Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. Authorised for publication by Uwe Stamm, Head of Unit D1, Candidate and Pre-Candidate Countries. The Report is released every quarter of the year. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 PDF ISBN 978-92-79-77407-2 ISSN 2443-8049 doi:10.2765/915049 KC-BF-18-002-EN-N European Union, 2018 Non-commercial reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Data, whose source is not the European Union as identified in tables and charts of this publication, is property of the named third party and therefore authorisation for its reproduction must be sought directly with the source. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs EU Candidate Countries & Potential Candidates Economic Quarterly (CCEQ) 4thQuarter 2017 This document is written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Directorate D for International Economic and Financial Relations and Global Governance, Unit D1 Candidate and Pre-Candidate Countries. Contact: Uwe.Stammec.europa.eu. EUROPEAN ECONOMY Technical Paper 022 Contents OVERVIEW . 5 ALBANIA . 9 THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA . 13 MONTENEGRO . 17 SERBIA . 21 TURKEY . 25 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA . 29 KOSOVO* . 33 * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. 5 OVERVIEW The economic recovery in the Western Balkans continued during the third quarter of 2017 with annual GDP growth at around 2.5% across the region. Private consumption and investment continued to support growth and exports seem to have regained momentum. Annualised current account deficits narrowed further in almost all countries, but overall external positions in many cases remain vulnerable. Economic expansion led to further job creation but at a slowing pace and with marginal or no quarter-on-quarter improvement in the unemployment rate in most countries. The jobless rate still remains high across the Western Balkans. Progress in fiscal consolidation seems to be slowing down in some countries, despite the fact that high public debt levels remain a source of vulnerability in several of them, especially given no or limited monetary policy autonomy. In Turkey, annual GDP expansion reached almost double-digit level in the third quarter due to a low base and the impact of various government stimulus measures, but macroeconomic imbalances such as high inflation and a sizeable current account deficit persist. Economic growth accelerated in some countries of the Western Balkans in the third quarter of 2017 whereas it remained unchanged or decelerated in others. In Serbia, GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% y-o-y largely driven by investment and household consumption. The economy of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia returned to a sluggish growth of 0.2% y-o-y after contracting in the preceding quarter. Economic activity was mainly supported by household spending and exports, but investments declined further, still severely affected by the recent political turmoil. In Kosovo, annual output growth remained at 4.4%, on the back of strong investments and a positive contribution of net exports. In Bosnia and Herzegovina the pace of growth was also unchanged at 2.9% y-o-y in the third quarter, mainly driven by private consumption and exports. Conversely, compared to the previous quarter, annual GDP growth decelerated in Albania to 3.5% due to a sharp slowdown of gross fixed capital formation growth and a decline in goods exports and in Montenegro to still robust 4.7%, with growth driven by domestic demand components. Overall, in the third quarter of 2017, the Western Balkan regions real GDP growth reached 2.5%, up from 2.1% in the preceding quarter, and compared to 2.8% in the same quarter of the previous year (Chart 1). In Turkey, annual GDP grew markedly by 9.6% (calendar day adjusted) compared to 6.4% in the previous three months, mainly driven by strong investment supported by the state-guaranteed corporate loan scheme as well as a strong recovery of household consumption. - 1.50.52.54.56.58.5- 2.00.02.04.06.08.010 .012 .02011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q3Ch a r t 1: R e a l GDP gr ow t h, % y - o - yWe s te rn B a l k an s (rh s ) T u rk e y ( lh s )Source: Macrobond, Commission calculations * The labour market situation in the Western Balkans remains challenging. Despite the ongoing economic recovery the pace of job creation slowed down in most countries of the region in the third quarter of 2017. Annual employment growth decelerated, compared to the preceding quarter, in Albania (to 1.3% down from 3.5%), in Montenegro (to 3.1% 6 from 3.2%), in Serbia (to 2.4% from 4.3%) and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (to 2.1% from 2.7%). Overall, the average annual job growth rate in the Western Balkans fell to 2.5% from 4.3% in the second quarter (Chart 2). Growing employment levels contributed to marginally lower unemployment rates in most countries whereas in Serbia the jobless rate increased to 12.9% from 11.8% in the preceding quarter due to an increase in the participation rate and lower informal employment in agriculture. In Turkey, annual employment growth accelerated further to 4.5%, resulting in a drop of the unemployment rate to 10.7% in the third quarter. - 4.0- 2.00.02.04.06.08.02011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q3Cha r t 2: Em pl o ymen t gr ow t h, % y - o - y We s te rn B a l k an s T u rk e ySource: Macrobond, Commission calculations * As a result of narrow production bases and competitiveness challenges, merchandise trade deficits remain very high across the Western Balkans, ranging from almost 12% of GDP for Serbia to 18% or above for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina and equal to 42% or above for Montenegro and Kosovo. Trade deficits are only partially offset by surpluses in the services account and in current transfers, resulting in large foreign financing needs. At the same time, higher external demand, generated by the cyclical upturn in the EU, contributed to the further narrowing of annualised current account deficits in all countries except Serbia. In the four quarters to September, the regional current account deficit was around 5% of GDP, the lowest level in many years (Chart 3). In Turkey, the 12-month cumulative current account deficit increased from 3.8% of GDP in 2016 to 4.8% in October 2017, largely due to a further increase in the trade deficit in goods. As opposed to the Western Balkan countries, the financing of the current account deficit in Turkey continues to rely mainly on debt-creating flows. - 14.0- 12.0- 10.0- 8.0- 6.0- 4.0- 2.00.02011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q3Ch a r t 3: Cu r r e n t a cc oun t ba l a nc e , % of GDP We s te rn B a l k an s T u rke ySource: Macrobond, Commission calculations * Low inflation remains a key characteristic of the Western Balkan economies, reflecting low commodity prices and exchange rate stability. At the same time, economic growth is generating some upward pressure on prices, and consumer price inflation gained pace in some countries in the region. In Montenegro, and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia annual CPI inflation accelerated to 3% and 2.2% respectively, in November whereas in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo it decelerated to 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In Albania, annual CPI inflation stood at 1.8% in December (still below the central banks 3% target) while in Serbia it was at 3%, the mid-point of the target tolerance band of 3%1.5pps. This target will be retained until 2020, following a recent decision by the central bank of Serbia. The latter continued its accommodative monetary policy stance by keeping its key policy rate at 3.5% after two successive cuts of 25 bps each 7 in September and October, while the Bank of Albania has kept it at the historic low of 1.25% since May 2016. The central bank of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has kept the coupon on its bills, which serves as its benchmark interest rate, unchanged since February, at 3.25%. In Turkey, the annual CPI inflation decelerated to 11.9% in December down from 13% (the highest rate in the current inflation series that began in 2003) in the preceding month. Nevertheless, it remained significantly above the central banks official 5% target (+/- 2pps band width). * In the third quarter of 2017, bank lending continued to be supportive of growth in the Western Balkan region. Credit growth accelerated, compared to the previous quarter, in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia as well as in Serbia and Albania (when adjusted for exchange rate changes and loan write-offs in both countries). On the other hand, credit growth decelerated in Montenegro and Kosovo As a common feature, household lending has been growing faster than corporate lending. Credit extension is gradually becoming less constrained by the level of non-performing loans, as most Western Balkan countries managed to further reduce NPL ratios partly as a result of improved resolution frameworks and mandatory write-offs. Albania records the highest NPL ratio in the region (14.3 % of total loans in November), but this is down from 20.4% one year earlier. In Serbia the NPL ratio reached its lowest value since January 2009 (12.2%), followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina (10.8%) and Montenegro (7.4%). Annual credit growth in Turkey further accelerated to 23.5% in the third quarter up from 22.1% in the preceding three months, supported by public loan guarantees and macro-prudential loosening. The NPL ratio decreased marginally in November to 2.9% down from 3% in the previous month as new loans were added faster than non-performing loans to the banks balance sheets. * In the first eleven months of 2017, fiscal consolidation efforts seem to have lost pace in some Western Balkan countries, resulting in increases of fiscal deficits compared to the same period last year. In Montenegro, expenditure rise outpaced revenues growth as capital spending surged as a result of strong base effects, albeit it remained below plan. The central government deficit amounted to 3.6% of full-year GDP in January to November. During the same period, in Albania, the rise of budget revenues was more than offset from the expenditure growth and the budget recorded a shortfall of 0.7% of GDP. Conversely, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia the central government fiscal deficit contracted by 3% y-o-y standing at 2.2% of full-year GDP, with both revenues and current expenditure going up moderately. In Serbia, the fiscal situation continued to improve with the budget surplus standing at 2.1% of GDP as revenue growth outperformed expenditure increases. Continued fiscal consolidation (without, however, undermining much-needed capital spending) is necessary in a number of countries to rebuild fiscal buffers and reduce public debt levels which are especially high in Albania (69.7% of GDP), Serbia (62.6% of GDP), and Montenegro (61.7% of GDP). In Turkey, in the first eleven months of 2017, central government total revenues increased by 13.4% y-o-y and total spending by 18.2% y-o-y. General government debt declined from 28.7% of GDP in the second quarter to 28.2% in the third quarter of 2017. 8 E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n , E C F I N -D -1C a n d i d a t e a n d p o t e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e c o u n t r i e s : S u m m a r y t a b l e2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q 2 1 7 Q 3 1 7 Q 4 1 7 O c t 1 7 N o v 1 7 D e c 1 7G r o s s d o m e s ti c p r o d u c t ( i n r e a l t e r m s , a n n u a l % c h a n g e )A l b a n i a 1 . 0 1 . 8 2 . 2 3 . 4 4 . 0 f 3 . 8 4 . 2 4 . 1 3 . 5 : N . A . N . A . N . A .T h e f o r m e r Y u g o s l a v R e p u b l i c o f M a c e d o n i a2 . 9 3 . 6 3 . 8 2 . 9 1 . 7 f 2 . 7 3 . 2 - 1 . 3 0 . 2 : N . A . N . A . N . A .M o n t e n e g r o 3 . 5 1 . 8 3 . 4 2 . 9 3 . 9 f 3 . 0 3 . 3 5 . 2 4 . 7 : N . A . N . A . N . A .S e r b i a 2 . 6 - 1 . 8 0 . 8 2 . 8 2 . 0 f 3 . 3 3 . 5 1 . 4 2 . 1 : N . A . N . A . N . A .T u r k e y 8 . 5 5 . 2 6 . 1 3 . 2 5 . 3 f 4 . 0 4 . 1 5 . 4 1 1 . 1 : N . A . N . A . N . A .B o s n i a a n d H e r z e g o v i n a 2 . 3 1 . 1 3 . 1 3 . 1 : : : 2 . 9 2 . 9 : N . A . N . A . N . A .K o s o v o 3 . 4 1 . 2 4 . 1 4 . 1 : : : 4 . 4 4 . 4 : N . A . N . A . N . A .U n e m p l o y m e n tA l b a n i a 1 6 . 4 1 7 . 9 1 7 . 5 1 5 . 6 1 4 . 2 f 1 3 . 7 1 3 . 0 1 4 . 3 1 4 . 0 : N . A . N . A . N . A .T h e f o r m e r Y u g o s l a v R e p u b l i c o f M a c e d o n i a2 9 . 0 2 8 . 0 2 6 . 1 2 3 . 8 2 2 . 2 f 2 1 . 4 2 1 . 0 2 2 . 6 2 2 . 1 : N . A . N . A . N . A .M o n t e n e g r o 1 9 . 5 1 8 . 2 1 7 . 8 1 8 . 0 1 7 . 2 f 1 6 . 7 1 6 . 0 1 5 . 3 1 5 . 1 : N . A . N . A . N . A .S e r b i a 2 2 . 1 1 9 . 2 1 7 . 7 1 5 . 3 1 3 . 5 f 1 1 . 6 9 . 5 1 1 . 8 1 2 . 9 : N . A . N . A . N . A .T u r k e y N . A . 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 5 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 3 f 1 1
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