2018中国主题公园项目发展预测.pdf

1 Economics 2018 中国主题公园项目发展预测 China Theme Park Pipeline Report China2 AECOM About Economic Services, AECOM 关于AECOM经济规划服务 AECOM is a global network of experts working with clients, communities and colleagues to develop and implement innovative solutions to the worlds most complex challenges. Alongside AECOMs multi- disciplinary services, AECOMs economic team offers strategic and economic planning consultancy services to clients worldwide. In Asia, leisure, culture and tourism development, urban regeneration, and new town development present both opportunities and challenges. Economic analysis plays a critical role in shaping strategy and identifying an appropriate positioning for these new projects. AECOM是全球领先的咨询专家团队，与不同的客户和 行业伙伴合作，为世界最具挑战的项目提供创新解决方 案。作为AECOM众多专业领域咨询服务之一，经济服务 为全球客户提供战略和经济规划咨询服务。在亚洲，休 闲、文化和旅游开发，城市更新，新城开发等项目既存 在机遇同时又充满挑战。经济分析在这些项目的战略规 划制定和市场定位方面发挥着关键作用。 Research: Economic Services, AECOM 调研:AECOM经济咨询团队 Editor/编辑: Shaojin Li 李少金 Publication T eam /出版团队: Tsz Yin Au, Shuangping Bian, Beth Chang, Guocui Gu, Jodie Lock, Shaojin Li, Hui Long , Dan Wu, Chris Y oshii. Contacts/联系信息 For further information about the content of this report and about the economics practice at AECOM, contact the following: 如需了解有关AECOM经济咨询团队以及本报告的更多信息， 请联系: Chris Y oshii 吉井贵思 Vice President, Economics Global Director of Leisure + Culture, Aisa AECOM全球休闲文化副总裁 chris.yoshiiaecom T +852 3922 9000 Beth Chang 張本 韻 Executive Director, Economics AECOM经济咨询执行总监 beth.changaecom T +852 3922 9000 2018 年 Economic Services, AECOM3 Economics 前言 中国主题公园在过去的二十年里发展迅速。随着中 产阶级的不断壮大，以及国内交通条件前所未有的 改善，国民主题娱乐需求极大增加。为此，中国各 地规划建设了大量的主题公园以应对该需求。本报 告重点介绍了主题公园行业历史和未来趋势，以及 行业增长情况，旨在让读者能更好了解中国现有和 未来的主题公园规模及特点等。 Preface Theme parks have been developing rapidly over the last twenty years in China. Demand for themed entertainment products is increasing significantly as the middle class population expands and the improvements of transportation occur at unprecedented rate. In response, governments and developers are planning to develop more theme parks nationwide. This report highlights historic data and future trends, as well as in industry growth. This report helps industry participants to understand the scale and characteristics of the current supply and future pipeline of theme park development in China. CHRIS YOSHII 吉井贵思 Vice President, Economics Global Director ofLeisure + Culture, Aisa AECOM全球休闲文化副总裁 BETH CHANG 張本 韻 Executive Director, Economics AECOM经济咨询执行总监4 AECOM About This Report Definition of Theme park Drawing on decades of experience in the themed entertainment sector, AECOM defines the meaning of theme park as follows: A theme park is a type of amusement park in which landscaping, buildings/ structures, man-made attractions (rides, games, shows), and activities that are based on one or more unifying theme. A theme park is a gated area requiring an entry ticket and may be indoor, outdoor, or a combination of both. They are tangible, stationary and built for long-lasting operation, often featuring multiple zones with distinct storylines. Significant capital investment is necessary to deliver a complementary mix of entertainment, food and beverage outlets, retail shops, and other supporting facilities. Selection Criteria AECOM carefully selected existing and pipeline theme parks in Mainland China for inclusion in our research sample according to following criteria: Selecyed theme parks are city-scale projects operating in China; they are all of significant scale and prestige (i.e. strong brand), and include a large proportion of entertainment facilities. Selected theme parks are well constructed with a significant level of investment. This report excludes all Family Entertainment Centers (FECs) and small amusement parks. Selected theme parks include a significant proportion of entertainment facilities; this excludes characteristics towns, landscaped parks, retail, dining and entertainment (RDE) districts , and standalone aquaria, botanic gardens and zoos. This report excludes water parks as only land based park are considered. Reference The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) The National Development and Reform (NDRC) of the China defines a theme park as a commercial venture developed as a going concern, of sizable area, certain requisite investment level, and closed-end management. A theme park has one or more special culture or tourism theme; it charges for offering visitors a leisure experience, and cultural/entertainment products or services. Different types of theme park include large scale amusement parks with rides, large scale miniature landscape parks, movie studio parks, or animation parks with simulating and immersive experiences. Public city parks, botanical gardens and zoo funded by government are not considered theme parks. *The theme park definition used by AECOM is consistent with the NDRC definition. However, only larger city-scale theme parks are included in this report. AECOM 45 Economics 关于报告 主题公园定义 AECOM凭借多年国际和国内主题公园项目的经验，对主题公园的定义做出合理解释，并 根据一定标准对中国大陆地区现有及未来主题公园样本进行筛选： 主题公园属于游乐园的一种，园区内通常包含多个具有不同故事线的区域，区域内的景 观，建筑，人造景点及活动设施均基于一个或多个特定的主题。其特征主要包括：长期 商业运营，有大量资金投入，建设有游乐、餐饮、零售和其他综合服务设施，游客需付 费参观游览，有固定经营场所，室内、室外或室内外结合的封闭式园区。 本报告筛选标准 本研究报告所选取的主题公园样本主要由国内外主题公园运营商在中国大陆地区经营 的，具有一定投资规模，占地及一定比例娱乐设施，在当地有一定知名度，并符合主题 公园定义标准的，城市级主题公园构成。 所选取研究主题公园需要有一定投资额，占地规模，不包括室内娱乐体验中心，小型 游乐场； 所选取研究主题公园需具有一定比例的游乐设施，不包括特色小镇，纯景观类公园， 纯商业类景区，单体海洋馆及动植物园； 所选取研究主题公园范围仅限于陆公园，不包括水公园。 参考 国家发展和改革委员会 -关于规范主题公园建设发展的指导意见 主题公园：指以营利为目的兴建的，占地、投资达到一定规模，实行封闭管理，具有一 个或多个特定文化旅游主题，为游客有偿提供休闲体验、文化娱乐产品或服务的园区。 主要包括：以大型游乐设施为主体的游乐园，大型微缩景观公园，以及提供情景模拟、 环境体验为主要内容的各类影视城、动漫城等园区。政府建设的各类公益性的城镇公 园、动植物园等不属于主题公园。 资料来源：中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会 -关于规范主题公园建设发展的指导意见-发改社会规 2018400号 *AECOM使用的主题公园定义与国家发改委的指导范围一致。然而，AECOM在本报告中研究对象仅包括大型的城 市级主题公园。 Economics 56 AECOM Overview of Theme Parks in China 中国现有及拟建主题公园项目概览 “What is the current market in China?” “中国主题公园现状如何？” Chinas theme park market is in a period of fast-paced development. In 2017, aggregate attendance across Chinese theme parks increased by 20%, serving to underpin increased attendance in the global theme park market. By 2020, China is expected to surpass the United States to become the worlds largest themed entertainment market based on attendance. Of the 200 existing and future city-scale theme parks reviewed in this report, 128 theme parks were already in operation and at least 70 future city - scale theme parks have officially been announced to developed by 2025. There are some industry comments indicating a much larger number of “theme parks“ in China. However, AECOM believes many of those parks are very small-scale operations that can not be considered as city- scale theme parks. Pipeline projects are mostly concentrated in the more economically developed areas of South China and East China. The accelerated development of the domestic theme park industry has pushed total attendance to almost 190 million. 中国主题公园建设正处入快速发展期，2017年中国主题公园游客总量增幅近20%， 大力推动了全球主题公园的游客增长。预测至2020年，整体游客量将超越美国， 成为世界最大的主题娱乐市场。 本次研究的中国主题公园包括现有和未来的城市级主题公园项目数量共计约200 个，其中现有项目128个，已发布官方消息在2025年前完成建设的未来项目至少70 个。 然而，一些业内人士指出中国的“主题公园”数量远多于此，AECOM则认为其中 大多为小规模运营的游乐园，而非城市级的主题公园。 拟建项目多集中在华南，华东等经济发达地区。随着国内主题公园快速开发建设， 中国主题公园游客总量现今已达到近1.9亿人次。 200 128 Existing and proposed theme parks reviewed in this report 本次研究的主题公园总量 Theme parks in operation 本次研究的现有主题公园总量7 Economics Northeast/东北地区 South China/华南地区 East China/华东地区 Southwest/西南地区 North China/华北地区 Northwest/西北地区 Central China/华中地区 44 15 4 10 6 8 15 15 13 4 14 16 10 22 Existing Projects / 现有项目 Proposed Projects / 拟建项目 0.14 190Million Per capita visits to China theme park 中国主题公园人均访问量 T otal attendance of China theme parks in 2018 2018年中国主题公园游客总量8 AECOM Historically speaking, growth in theme park attendance has generally fallen in line with the growth in the number of theme parks. However since 1993, attendance has increased at a faster rate than the number of parks. Average attendance at major Chinese theme parks have increased from around 1 million to 1.5 million in 2017. Over the last 10 years (2008-2017), total theme park attendance grew at an average rate of 13% annually. The market is expected to continue a rapid growth to 2020. 主题公园游客量增长基本与主题公园数量增长同步。自1993年起，主题公园游 客量增速逐渐超过主题公园数量的增速。中国主题公园的年平均游客量也从近 100万提高至2017年的150万。 过去十年(2008-2017)，主题公园游客量每年平均增长13%，预计该市场将持 续快速增长至2020年。 50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250 Million 1985 2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Growth of Theme Park Attendance and Quantity in China (1985 - 2020) 1985年 2020年中国主题公园年游客量及数量增长趋势 2008 CAGR(20082017): 13% T otal Attendance of Theme Parks 主题公园总游客量 Quantity of Theme Parks 主题公园数量9 Economics T otal attendance of the domestic theme parks reached almost 190 million in 2017. By 2020, total attendance is anticipated to reach 230 million. With a population of nearly 1.4 billion people, the per capita visitation to theme parks in China was 0.13 in 2017. This is expected to rise to 0.16 by 2020. The research team estimats that the per capita attendance in the United States is 0.65, four times that of the 2020 China level. This indicates the significant opportunity for continued expansion of the industry in China. As the middle class population in China increases and transportation systems improve, demand for leisure and theme parks is expected to rise. If developers and operators can deliver high quality, enjoyable and safe experiences, overall visitation will also increase. 中国主题公园游客总量现今已达到近1.9亿人次。到2020年，预计游客量将达 到2.3亿。基于2017年的14亿人口，中国主题公园人均访问量为0.13，预计到 2020年将增加到0.16。本研究报告预计，美国主题公园现今人均访问量达0.65 ，为中国2020年水平的4倍，预示着中国主题行业仍有持续增长的空间。 随着中国中产阶级人口的增加和交通系统的改善，对休闲和主题公园的需求预 计亦将会增加。如开发商和运营商能够提供高质量，具有愉快和安全舒适游玩 体验的主题公园设施，整体游客量仍会增加。 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Per Capita Visits to Theme Park 主题公园人均访问量 China/中国2017 China/中国2020 US/美国2017 0.13 0.16 0.6510 AECOM Existing Theme Parks - Supply and Scale 现有主题公园市场容量和规模 “Where are the existing theme parks?” “现有主题公园分布情况如何？” Existing theme parks are predominantly concentrated in coastal areas of South-East China. Not only do these areas benefit from greater economic prosperity, they are also more advanced in the development cycle and are more densely populated with a relatively mild climate; this is especially true of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. East China region has by far the largest concentration of major theme parks, accounting for 34% of all in Mainland China. This is understandable given the larger population and GDP in East China region. Central China region also has a very large population and GDP , but it has a relatively smaller number of city -scale theme parks. This indicates growth potential in Central China. 中国现有的主题公园主要集中在经济较为发达，人口众多，且气候相对温和的东 南沿海地带，以长三角及珠三角最具代表性。 主题公园分布最多的地区为华东地区，其数量占全国的34%，主要基于华东地 区庞大的人口规模和经济总量。中部地区人口和GDP总量都很庞大，但城市级规 模的主题公园数量相对较少，表明了中部地区主题公园市场仍有增长潜力。 Northwest/西北地区 Northeast/东北地区 Southwest/西南地区 North China/华北地区 South China/华南地区 Central China/华中地区 East China/华东地区 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 GDP Ranking in Each Region of China (Trillion CNY) 中国各区GDP排名 (1,000亿人民币) 30 9 11 12 14 2 6 Trillion11 Economics Population Ranking in Each Region of China (Million) 中国各区人口总量排名 (百万) East China/华东地区 Central China/华中地区 Southwest/西南地区 North China/华北地区 South China/华南地区 Northeast/东北地区 Northwest/西北地区 100 0 200 400 300 360 101 109 168 174 200 268 Distribution of Existing Theme Parks in China (2018) 中国现有主题公园分布 (2018) East China/华东地区 Central China/华中地区 Southwest/西南地区 North China/华北地区 South China/华南地区 Northeast/东北地区 Northwest/西北地区 34% 17% 13% 6% 10% 12% 8% Million12 AECOM Existing Theme Parks - Types 主题公园分类 “What are the themes of existing parks?” “现有主题公园的主题有哪些？” The Chinese theme park industry has a broader cross-section of themed entertainment concepts than is typical in other countries; types of theme parks are therefore more diverse. AECOM divides theme parks into 7 broad categories, as presented. ”No obvious theme” refers to those theme parks that do not contain a significant amount of thematic content. There is minimal storytelling or thematic design, and they do not target any particular market segment or market niche. 中国的主题公园概念相较其他国家更为宽泛，因此主题分类更加多样。AECOM 根据此次研究所选取的主题公园标准，将主题公园划分为动物/海洋动物、历史/ 文化、奇幻/卡通人物、影视/媒体、无明显主题/器械、自然/景观及其他主题类 共计7种类型。 “无明显主题”指没有或仅有少量主题内容的主题公园，其园区内故事线或主题设 计薄弱，且不针对任何特定的细分市场。 No Obvious Theme / Rides 无明显主题/器械 Fantasy / Character 奇幻/卡通人物 History / Culture 历史/文化 Animal / Sea Life 动物/海洋动物 Nature / Themed Environment 自然/景观 Other(eg.Religions, Food ) 其他类(如宗教，饮食 ) 影视/媒体 Movie / Media13 Economics Around 53% of existing theme parks in China fall into the category No Obvious Theme, while those with distinctly recognizable themes constitute the remaining 47%. Designing, building and operating a theme park with a specific theme is more challenging than one without a theme. International experience indicates parks with strong themes perform better than parks with no obvious theme. Among those existing parks with recognizable themes, Fantasy/Cartoon Characters and History/Culture based theme parks are most common, at 16% and 13% respectively. 国内目前现有的主题公园中，无明显主题类公园占比53%，由主打器械类骑乘 设施的公园组成。有明显主题类公园占比47%。设计，建造和运营具有特定主 题的公园比没有主题的公园更具挑战性。国际经验显示，具有明显主题的公园 整体表现优于无明显主题的公园。 有明显主题的现有项目中，奇幻卡通类和历史文化类占比最高，分别为16%和 13%。 Without Obvious Theme 无明显主题 53% With Obvious Theme 有明显主题 47% Fantasy/Character 奇幻/卡通人物 16% History/Culture 历史/文化 13% Animal/Sea life 动物/海洋动物 9% Nature/Themed Environment 自然/景观类 5% Movie/Media 影视/媒体 2% Other /其他类 2%14 AECOM Existing Theme Parks - Attendance Characteristics 主题公园游客量特征 “What level of attendance are existing parks achieving?” “现有主题公园达到了怎样的游客量水平？” Althoughtotal theme park attendance across China is approaching 190 million, 85% of parks recorded less than two million visitors. The proportion of theme parks attracting more than 3 million visitors is fewer than 10%. Theme parks with an attendance of 3 million visitors or more are as large theme parks. 中国主题公园现今总游客量已达1.9亿人次，但游客量不足200万的主题公园占 比达85%，游客量达300万以上的主题公园占比不足10%。达到300万游客量 的主题公园通常被认为是区域性大规模主题公园。 Attendance of Existing China Theme Parks (Millions) 现有主题公园游客量区间分布 (百万人次) 12 Million 34% 0.51 Million 34% 0.30.5 Million 17% 23 Million 6% 34 Million 5% 4 Million 4%15 Economics Currently, the number of theme parks in China with distinct themes is similar to the number with no obvious theme. However, our analysis reveals that the attendance levels tend to be higher among those parks with a distinct theme. The majority of parks with attendance of 4 million or more visitors have distinctive themes. While having a strong theme does not guarantee success, having a unique theme and wonderful guest experience can enhance the attractiveness and marketability of the theme park. 中国主题公园现阶段有明显主题和无明显主题类公园的数量大致相当，但有明 显主题类公园的游客量表现通常优于无明显主题类。游客量超过400万的大部 分主题公园皆有明显主题。 虽然拥有强主题的公园并不能保证成功，但拥有独特主题和提供卓越游客体验 的主题公园可以增强其吸引力和适销性。 Annual Attendance Range (Million) 年游客量区间 (百万) Without Obvious Theme 无明显主题 With Obvious