资源描述
The futureAlternative pathways to 2050of food andagricultureISSN 2522-722X (online)ISSN 2522-7211 (print)2Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsRome, 2018Alternative pathways to 2050The futureof food andagricultureThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-130158-6 FAO, 2018Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; creativecommons/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original Language edition shall be the authoritative edition.Any mediation relating to disputes arising under the licence shall be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) as at present in force.Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user.Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (fao/publications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfao. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: fao/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: copyrightfao.Required citation:FAO. 2018. The future of food and agriculture Alternative pathways to 2050. Rome. 224 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.iiiContentsForeword viiiAcknowledgements xiAbbreviations xiiiExecutive summary xvIntroduction 31 | Challenges ahead for food and agriculture 71.1 Population and economic growth as drivers of future agricultural demand 81.2 Food security amid persistent inequality and transformation of agrifood systems 141.3 Binding natural resource constraints and insufficient investment 241.4 Climate change challenges for all dimensions of food and agriculture 311.5 Trends and challenges in a nutshell 332 | Looking into the future: scenarios for food and agriculture 352.1 The approach 352.2 Fitting scenarios in the “challenges space”: key drivers, strategies and policies 442.3 Scenario narratives 463 | Scenario drivers: alternative assumptions for the future 553.1 Population 553.2 Total gross and world domestic product 573.3 Per capita gross domestic and world product 603.4 Cross-country income inequality 643.5 Capital intensity 673.6 Food consumption, undernourishment, biomass feedstock demand and food losses 683.7 Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change 733.8 Crop yields: technical change and climate change impacts 763.9 Cropping intensity 833.10 Land and water expansion and boundaries 853.11 Livestock systems 913.12 Fish production 933.13 Remarks on scenario assumptions 944 | Scenario findings 954.1 Size of agriculture within the economy 954.2 Gross agricultural output 964.3 Agricultural prices 984.4 Wages in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors 1004.5 Consumption patterns and undernourishment 1024.6 Commodity balances and net international trade 1124.7 Crop yields and harvested areas 117ivFiguresFigure 1.1 Food and non-food agricultural demand: historical trends 8Figure 1.2 Global population by region: historical and projected, 19502100 9Figure 1.3 Global urban and rural populations: historical and projected 10Figure 1.4 Per capita gross domestic product: globally and for selected regions 11Figure 1.5 Trends in food demand by income group 12Figure 1.6 Prevalence of obesity among children and adults by region 13Figure 1.7 Undernourishment under a business as usual scenario, 20052030 16Figure 1.8 Per capita income inequalities across regions, 19702014 17Figure 1.9 Share of agriculture, fisheries and forestry in the total economy 22Figure 1.10 Land by use: percentage in total land, 19012015 25Figure 1.11 Freshwater withdrawals as a percentage of total renewable water resources 27Figure 1.12 Average annual growth rates for selected crop yields 28Figure 1.13 Agricultural net capital-output (value added) ratio, 19902015 29Figure 1.14 Agricultural investment orientation ratio by region, 19902015 30Figure 1.15 Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 19902014 32Figure 2.1 Step-wise approach for the foresight exercise 39Figure 2.2 Quantitative modelling framework 42Figure 2.3 Challenges to food and agricultural systems and key scenario drivers 45Figure 2.4 Scenario pathways without and with policies for sustainable food and agriculture 46Figure 3.1 Annual growth rates of population by region (medium variant), 19512100 564.8 Animal herds 1244.9 Land and water use 1284.10 Greenhouse gas emissions 1374.11 Scenario outcomes and Sustainable Development Goals achievements 1405 | Challenges ahead and strategic options 1435.1 Trends in food and agriculture and challenges ahead 1445.2 Concluding remarks 156Annexes 158Annex I A comparative review of selected foresight exercises 159Annex II Detailed assumptions for scenario narratives 168Annex III Quantitative model features and data 177References 191vFigure 3.2 Gross domestic and world product: historical trends and projections by scenario (2012 exchange rates) 59Figure 3.3 Per capita gross domestic and world product: historical trends and projections (2012 exchange rates) 62Figure 3.4 Per capita gross domestic and world product: annual growth rates, historical and projections by scenario 63Figure 3.5 Gini index of per capita income: historical trends and projections by scenario 65Figure 3.6 Per capita gross domestic product in low- and middle-income countries and China, as percentage of that in high-income countries 67Figure 3.7 Minimum dietary energy requirements in all scenarios 70Figure 3.8 Food losses as percentage of Daily Energy Supply in all scenarios 71Figure 3.9 Yield changes from 2012 to 2050 due to climate change and technical progress 80Figure 3.10 Potentially highly suitable additional land for rainfed cropping systems, 2012 88Figure 4.1 Share of agriculture, fisheries and forestry value added of total value added (base-year prices) 96Figure 4.2 Gross agricultural output at base-year prices 98Figure 4.3 Projected agricultural producer price index 100Figure 4.4 Average wages for unskilled labour in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors 102Figure 4.5 Daily energy consumption by source and scenario 103Figure 4.6 Per capita kilocalorie consumption in low- and middle-income countries (excluding China) as a share of that in high-income countries 107Figure 4.7 Projected shares of per capita food expenditures in per capita income 108Figure 4.8 Prevalence of undernourishment: global, historical and projected 111Figure 4.9 Number of undernourished people: global, historical and projected 112Figure 4.10 Balance of total agricultural commodities (2012 exchange rates) 116Figure 4.11 Yields and harvested areas for the five major crops, by region: changes 20122050 121Figure 4.12 Total animal herds by livestock category 127Figure 4.13 Global arable land requirements by scenario and estimated loss of agricultural areas to urbanization, degradation and climate change 131Figure 4.14 Arable land requirements 132Figure 4.15 Projected irrigated areas 134Figure 4.16 Sources of growth in crop production in 2050, by region and scenario 136Figure 4.17 Projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions for different scenarios 139Figure A 3.1 Activity and commodity structure in FAO GAPS for a single country 178Figure A 3.2 Multi-country trade equilibrium in FAO GAPS 179Figure A 3.3 Budget and calorie allocation process in FAO GAPS 186viTablesTable 1.1 Global land by use and land-use change 26Table 3.1 Population by region: historical trends and projections (medium variant) 56Table 3.2 Gross domestic and world product: historical trends and projections by scenario 57Table 3.3 Per capita gross domestic and world product: historical trends and projections by scenario 60Table 3.4 Per capita gross domestic product by region, as percentage of that in high-income countries 66Table 3.5 Post-harvest losses as percentage of commodity availability, 2012 72Table 3.6 Changes in greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 2010 by representative concentration pathway 74Table 3.7 Projected yield changes from climate change and technical progress by period, production system and scenario 82Table 3.8 Average cropping intensities: historical, base year and projections by scenario 84Table 3.9 Potential additional, unprotected, and highly suitable areas for rainfed crop production: base year and projections by scenario 90Table 4.1 Gross agricultural output at base-year prices 97Table 4.2 Historical dietary energy supply and projected dietary energy consumption 104Table 4.3 Historical animal product supply and projected per capita animal product consumption 105Table 4.4 Historical fruit and vegetable supply and projected per capita fruit and vegetables consumption 105Table 4.5 Historical per capita supply and projected per capita consumption in low- and middle-income countries (excluding China) as share of high-income countries 106Table 4.6 Prevalence of undernourishment 109Table 4.7 Number of undernourished people 111Table 4.8 Balance of total agricultural commodities 114Table 4.9 Crop yields, major crops by region 118Table 4.10 Harvested area by production system 122Table 4.11 Total animal herd size 126Table 4.12 Arable land by production system 129Table 4.13 Production in irrigated areas, percentage in total production value 133Table 4.14 Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions 138Table 4.15 Nitrogen fertilizer consumption 139Table 4.16 Key indicators for the three scenarios in 2030 and 2050 141viiTable A 1.1 Overview of reviewed foresight studies 167Table A 2.1 Macroeconomic, social and technical drivers by scenario 168Table A 2.2 Food and agricultural sector features by scenario 173Table A 2.3 Food- and agriculture-specific policies by scenario 176Table A 3.1 Activity/commodity structure for processed commodities 179Table A 3.2 FAOSTAT data used to calibrate FAO GAPS 180Table A 3.3 Activities and commodities in FAO GAPS 181Table A 3.4 Countries in FAO GAPS regions 183Table A 3.5 Food bundles in FAO GAPS 185BoxesBOX 1 Food and agriculture in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 14BOX 2 Food security and nutrition: the analytical framework 20BOX 3 Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 37BOX 4 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 38BOX 5 The FAO GAPS model in a nutshell 43BOX 6 Sustainable food and agriculture: trade-offs and policy principles 47BOX 7 Using information from the FAO-IIASA Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) database 78BOX 8 The linkages between land and water management, economy-wide development patterns, climate change and societal welfare outcomes 86BOX 9 Overview of results for selected regions by scenario 142The future of food and agriculture Alternative pathways to 2050viiiviiiForeword
展开阅读全文