超越城市分级体系.pdf

超越城市分级体系BEYOND THE TIERSPUBLISHED BY06|2017MediaCom is “The Content + Connections Agency”, working on behalf of its clients to leverage their brands entire system of communications across paid, owned and earned channels to deliver a step change in their business outcomes.MediaCom is one of the worlds leading media communications specialists, with billings exceeding US$31 billion (source: RECMA June 2016), employing 7,000 people in 125 offi ces across 100 countries. MediaCom is a member of WPP, the worlds largest marketing communications services group, and part of GroupM, WPPs consolidated media investment management arm.竞立媒体是一家“内容与渠道整合传播代理商”，致力于代表客户，利用客户品牌付费、自有或获得的整个沟通渠道系统，为客户业务成果带来改变。竞立媒体是全球领先的专业媒介传播机构，年度媒介承揽额超过310亿美元（来源：RECMA 2016年6月数据）。竞立媒体在全球100个国家拥有125个办事处，拥有7000名员工。竞立媒体是全球最大市场传播服务组织WPP的成员之一，还是WPP联合媒体投资管理组织GroupM的组成部分。MANY THANKS TO KEY CONTRIBUTORSPeter PetermannChief Strategy Offi cer, MediaCom ChinaSaw Gin Toh Head of Insights, MediaCom ChinaBLINK |BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK 超越城市分级体系一个驱动商业增长的全新视角虽然中国近期的经济增长较之前有所放缓，但他仍是世界上最富活力和最繁荣的市场之一。为了做出恰当的投资决策，国际与本土品牌都需要寻找丰富的数据来准确描绘出中国的投资环境。然而，无论是中国的传统城市分级体系，还是“具有政治意味”的消费者分级（如“中产阶级”），两者都不能提供足够的洞察，帮助营销者做出恰当的投资决策。在本期白皮书超越城市分级体系中，我们针对中国市场提出全新的“互联城市”分级体系，并使用 “互联消费者”概念 为品牌增长提供新方向。Dr. Peter Petermann, CSO, MediaCom ChinaPeter Petermann, 竞立媒体中国区首席战略官BEYOND THE TIERSA new systematic to growth in ChinaDespite its relative recent slow-down in economic performance, China is still one of the most dynamic and most prosperous markets in the world. To make apt investment decisions, international and Chinese brands alike need to look for rich data that will provide an accurate picture of Chinas investment landscape. But neither Chinas traditional City Tier System nor “political” consumer classifications such as “the middle class” provide enough granularity for marketers to make apt investment decisions. Our White Paper on “Beyond the Tiers” provides a new systematic of “Connected Cities” for market segmentation across China and suggest “Connected Consumers” as new lens to identify growth potentials for brands.|BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK FOR MOST BRANDS, CHINA STILL OFFERS MAJOR GROWTH OPPORTUNITIESFor most consumer-facing Multinational Companies (MNCs), unlocking new consumer segments is key. And China, despite its relative recent slow-down in economic performance, is still one of the most dynamic and most prosperous markets in the world.According to the China Center for Economics and Business, consumer spending is forecast to rise by 5.2% per year over the next decade and will reach a stunning 40 trillion RMB in 2025. At current exchange rates this translates into an unbelievable 6 trillion $US. And even if GDP growth were a full percentage point less, China would still outperform most other markets worldwide in relative dynamism. Thus, China is most certainly still by far the market with the greatest overall revenue potential for MNCs if they can make the right investment decisions, if they have the right expansion strategy and if they can connect with the right consumers at the right place at the right time. To make apt investment decisions, MNCs and Chinese brands alike need to look for rich data that will provide an accurate picture of Chinas investment landscape. And this is where businesses may face a major challenge. Chinas traditional City Tier System that classifies Chinas cities into four broad categories fails to provide enough granularity about consumption patterns and growth opportunities across Chinas cities. |BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK CHINAS TRADITIONAL CITY TIER SYSTEM FACES SIGNIFICANT LIMITATIONSMore than 600 cities have been classified within Chinas Tier system. From the handful of super-rich megalopolis cities in Tier 1 down to the exhausted clonetowns in the provinces. No other country in the world has such a classification, but then again no other country in the world has such a complex market economy. For decades, the Tier system has provided the framework in which China would organize the complex relationship between the central government and its provincial (or not so provincial) counterparts. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that the Tier System is of limited value in understanding and, more importantly, grasping growth opportunities for MNCs and Chinese brands. The problem starts with the classification itself. Tier 1 cities consists of the 5 biggest and wealthiest cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjing. With populations the size of not-so-small nation states but with more buying power than many African economies, these cities will continue to contribute heavily to brand growth. Historically, it has always been obvious which cities belong to this cluster though no clear-cut definition exists why its just these. Tier 2, on the other hand, consists mostly of provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities, although a few other large cities are included. Again, no definition exists why some are included and others are not. Tier 3, then, is even less clearly defined, consisting of a rather incoherent number of about 100 cities. And the only similarity between Tier 4 cities seems to be that they are not included anywhere else. Clearly, such categorisations are not based on analysis of current or future economic conditions or household consumption patterns and hence, they do not reveal anything about a citys uniqueness as a consumer market. In this White Paper, we claim that brand owners in China can no longer depend on the traditional Tier classification system to give a practical shape to their expansion strategies. This is the Information Age and theage of Big Data and peoples purchase decisions are greatly influenced by their access to the internet. With this, we introduce the concept of Connected Consumers who have access to the internet and whose purchase decisions depend on their willingness to spend their disposable income once they have secured their basic necessities. And we introduce the concept of Connected Cities to better reflect where we believe growth for brands will be found in the years to come.|BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK CONNECTED CONSUMERS: THE EMERGING DRIVERS OF CONSUMPTION GROWTHMNCs in China typically target the countrys growing middle class to promote their expansion strategies. However, the term “middle class” is broad and rather vague as there is no criterion to define how much a consumer should earn to be classified as middle class. Additionally, brands often consider the income of their prospects, but do not base their planning on the consumers mind-set. A consumer may have a high income, but to be interesting for brands he or she should be willing to spend this income on branded goods or services. In todays internetworked consumer market, consumers carefully evaluate various spending options before making a purchase decision. At MediaCom, we have identified a new and unique consumer segment called “Connected Consumers” as a key driver for growth. More and more consumers are found outside the well-developed retail environments of the higher Tiers and to be considered a Connected Consumer they need to have access to e- and more importantly m-commerce to be able to spend their money on consumer goods and services. To look at consumers through this lens has many practical advantages specifically when it comes to understanding their mindsets. “Connected Consumers” are now defining consumer culture and brands need to target them for growth. They demonstrate a significantly higher level of consumption compared to other households: where other households spend about $2000 per person per year, Connected Consumers spend $4400. They tend to be younger, more affluent and better educated. They spend over-proportionally on non-essential items such as magazines, books, personal-care products and cars. But their key focus is on fashion, dining the Peripheral Cities that benefit from spill over from the large metroplex areas and show immense growth in consumption power; the large Crossborder Cities that benefit from trade with neighbouring countries and show high per capita income growth; or the Modern Industrial Cities whose economic power stems from their industrial success and their ability to reinvent themselves. Connected Cities are noted for their diversified economies. They present optimal growth opportunities and offer a fertile landscape for investment. Hence, brands that are looking to expand their territories should consider these markets first. Source: “Beyond the Tiers, 2017” HMCHSAMIPOPULATION GROWITHAVG. CONTRIBUTION TO CONSUMPTIONBTMCDARETPCBMC = MegacitiesBT = BoomtownsMI = Modern Industrial CitiesCB = Crossborder CitiesP = Peripheral CitiesHM = Heartland Mainstream CitiesCH = Challenged Heartland CitiesSA = Struggling Agricultural CitiesT = Tourism CitiesRE = Resource Exhausted CitiesDA = Diversified Agricultural Cities5 clusters will contribute to growth in China These 5 key segments represent:533m consumers now605m consumers in 202551% of all consumption in 2025|BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK On the other hand of the spectrum are cities that either have negative population growth due to an inability to innovate, resource exhaustion or limited opportunities for diversification. We call them “disconnected”.26 of the markets we have analysed are “resource-exhausted”: located in remote mining regions, they offer very little else and consequently have been hit hardest by resource depletion and unemployment. Then there are the small, shallow markets of Chinas Challenged Heartland Cities. Chinas Agricultural Cities, be they Struggling or Diversified Agricultural, are facing the problems of a quickly shrinking population. And even Chinas Tourism Cities with their small domestic population are finding only limited opportunities for economic diversification. Of course, as China in total is growing some of this growth will happen in these markets; and as they are coming from a very small base their relative growth may look intriguing. But economically, these markets are volatile and more likely than not substantial growth will not happen here. While individual cities may find a way to thrive, most of these markets will struggle in the years ahead. Finally, there is the large cluster of Chinas Heartland Mainstream Cities: 52 cities with more than 200 million people will make up 13% of Chinas consumption in 2025. These are the non-descript, extremely average cities that dominate Chinas heartland. There is too little going on in these cities to accurately predict their future. And while this cluster may become an interesting area for the next wave of brand growth, currently we would recommend to concentrate marketing investments on the 5 growth segments outlined above.|BEYOND THE TIERS超越城市分级体系BLINK MEGACITIESWith an average population of 19 million, Chinas Megacities are robust stand-alone economies. These cities have high level of wealth and strong government support, which make them stable markets for several industries including food, media, finance, hospitality, and healthcare. However, markets such as Beijing or Shenzhen are already mature with hundreds of choices and thus relative growth rates are limited. BOOMTOWNS Chinas Boomtowns are noted for their strong population growth and a very high share of consumption. They offer access to foreign trade opportunities. Markets such as Nanjing or Ningbo are very open for expansion as they are less penetrated by international brands. However, high property prices put consumption and spending power under pressure. CHINAS CONNECTED CITIES Rather than using the traditional Tier system, we recommend to build your expansion strategy on the “connectedness” of potential markets. “Connected Cities” are markets that share the following necessary preconditions for growth: they have both the digital and non-digital infrastructure to support expansion strategies; they have a sufficiently large and growing population with enough disposable income; and they are forecast to contribute over proportionally to the increase in consumption growth. This approach is much less arbitrary and more granular than the traditional Tier classification and, therefore, provides a more robust basis for strategic decision making.