德银：房地产行业.pdf

ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.dbResearchDeutsche BankThe House ViewHappy holidaysDISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.11 December 2017marcos.aranadbmatthew.luzzettidbmichael.hsuehdbDistributed on: 11/12/2017 02:00:00 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.dbMonths in Review2Reuters, 02-Nov-17FT, 02-Nov-17FT, 26-Oct-17Reuters, 14-Nov-17FT, 15-Nov-17BBC, 07-Dec-17FT, 02-Dec-17FT, 27-Oct-17Guardian, 29-Nov-17DW, 16-Oct-17Reuters, 22-Sep-17FT, 01-Nov-17WSJ, 27-Oct-17Reuters, 19-Oct-17FX Street, 08-Nov-17Guardian, 04-Dec-17The Guardian, 20-Nov-17ResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.dbHappy holidays. This is what market sentiment feels like at the moment, with riskassets at or close to multi-year highs. Faster progress on tax reform bills in the USand the EU-UK exit deal provided the last positive catalysts. They add to a favourablebackdrop of strong economic growth, increasingly supportive fiscal and regulatorypolicy, and tightening but still easy monetary policy.The positive environment should extend in 2018. The global economy should expandat a strong pace, with the US and eurozone growing above potential, and Chinaslowing down but only moderately. Political risk, though still present, shouldntescalate. We expect central banks exit from ultra-accommodative monetary policy tocontinue very gradually. As a result we are generally constructive on risk assets.What could challenge this positive undertone? A sharp rise in inflation for starters.Despite strong growth and tight (or tightening) labour markets, developed marketsinflation remains low, and markets have gotten used to this. There are howeverincreasing signs that inflation will continue rising in 2018. A faster than expected pick-up could surprise markets and lead to a sharp repricing of central bank rate riseexpectations, which could be disruptive for risk assets akin to 2013s taper tantrum.Another risk is China growth. Authorities seem to have gotten more comfortable withslightly slower growth, and the central bank is tightening monetary policy. We expectsome policy easing in mid-2018 to support growth. But this option may be off thetable if inflation is high. Growth would then slow and could weigh on global growth.In our base case these risks dont materialise. But they are there. Happy holidays.David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist3The House View, 11 December 2017Happy holidaysThe views in this publication are informed by Deutsche Banks Global Strategy Group, which advises management and clients on broad market risks and global economic and financial developments. The views and forecasts of the group, which consists of senior research staff, may occasionally differ from those disseminated by their research colleaguesTable of contentsIntroduction 4-boxes Total returnsMacro outlook Global growth DM inflation US growth and tax reform Eurozone, China and EM growthPolitical risk Brexit EuropeMonetary policy Overview Fed and ECB outlookMarkets Summary market views Equities outlook FX and rates views Oil outlookResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db Fed: expect rate hike in December, another 4 in 2018 ECB: slow exit to continue. No new measures until mid-2018; expect QE to end in 2018, first hike in mid-2019 BoJ: not under pressure to act, no change expected in target short rate or yield curve control policy BoE: on hold, risk is additional rate hikes PBoC: policy tightening to curb financial risks, followed by some easing in H2-2018 to avoid growth slowdown EM: rate hikes starting especially in Asia, CEE with few exceptions where cuts are still possible Global growth to remain robust in 2018, even as momentum slows from highs, China slows down. Forecast 3.8% growth, higher than 2017 US growth to continue above potential at 2.6% in 2018, up from 2017. Drivers of growth broadening beyond solid consumer spending Eurozone cyclically strong, see above consensus growth in 2018 at 2.3%. Main concern is how much longer can above-potential growth last EM: cyclical acceleration to continue, growth ticking up to 4.9% in 2018, even as China growth slows slightly Central banks on slow tightening path: led by Fed, followed by ECB but also across EM. Still low inflation means markets not yet fully pricing CBs stated plans Risk assets: with favourable macro backdrop, rally can last, as long as rates rise is not sharp Political risk: to remain prevalent (e.g., Germany, Italy, Catalonia, Brexit, US mid-terms) but little macro impact Brexit: increasingly seen as a UK issue. Focus now turns to ability to agree transition deal by Q1-2018 US tax reform: rising chances of reform. Positive esp. for high tax corporates, but not a major macro impactViews on key themesEconomic outlook Central bank watchKey downside risks to our viewNotes: H / M / L indicates estimated probability of risk (High, Medium, Low). 4 Sharp rise in rates: taper tantrum-type scenario if inflation rises faster, central banks seen behind curve China growth slowdown: high inflation prevents easing of monetary policy to support growth DM growth deceleration: rising policy rates interrupt macro momentum, mild recession De-globalisation: rise of anti-trade policies exacerbates anaemic global trade and sharply slows growthMLWe expect the robust macro backdrop to continue in 2018, with monetary policy continuing to gradually tightenLMResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db3120 2019141410875-1766322-0.412953 3-3-898-12-15-10-50510152025303540MSCIEMItalyMilanUS S&P 500JapanNikkeiFrench CAC40German DAX30Europe Stoxx600Shanghai CompositeUKFTSE100MexicoIPCRussia MicexUSHYEUR HYUSIGEUR IGUSFranceGermanyEURGBPCNYJPYEMFXGBPEURDollarIndexBrentOilGoldIronOreIn USD termsReturns* per asset class in 2017Equities Commodities*FX*Sovereign debtCorporate CreditYTD20175Note: (*) Total return accounts for both income (interest or dividends) and capital appreciation. (*) FX, Commodities are spot returns.Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research. As of COB, 07 December 20172017 is set to have been a brilliant year for risk assets, with equities and credit rallying while rates remained well bidSterling narrows the gap as Brexitnegotiations show progressEuropean rates finish on a strong note, with minimal signs of ECB exitOil up as US supply estimates fall; China iron ore demand to pause in winterRobust finish to year after spreads tightened from November widesDollar weakness theme to persist as downside risks dominateStrong returns in local currency terms; USD equivalent returns even stronger despite minor dollar recovery in fourth quarterResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db61.92.66.37.51.01.01.42.02.32.32.64.92.23.80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8RussiaBrazilChinaIndiaJapanUKItalyFranceGermanyEurozoneUSEMDMWorld2018Real GDP growth (%yoy)Global growth outlookUS: solid growth outlook 2%+ growth through end-2018 Growth drivers broadening as capex and trade pickup Deregulation is positive; only a modest boost from tax cutsChina: moderate slowdown in 2018 Government appears tolerant of lower growth, policy tightening in H1-2018 Rising inflation in H1 could trigger faster policy tightening Growth to rebound in H2-2018Eurozone: strong growth not for long Economy much more resilient to political uncertainty than feared Expect robust growth in 2018 But pace unlikely to be sustained for long EM: helped by strong global growth Positive outlook for EM as strong DM growth provides export pull Asias growth cycle most advanced, LatAm playing catch-up CEEMEA benefitting from strong growth in EuropeJapan: growth to slow in 2018 Five-year economic expansion reaching mature stage Domestic demand saturating and expected to slow See growth slowing to sub-1%, from nearly 1.5% in 2017UK: weakening economy Weak demand, high inflation to persist Downside risks to growth if household confidence weakens, Brexit contingency plans are triggered5% n/aSolid global growth outlook continues. 2018 set to post highest growth in the decade, slightly ahead of 2017Source: Deutsche Bank ResearchResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db 72018 could be the year of reckoning for inflation and the Phillips curve as inflation at last rises Major DMs core inflation below target despite strong growth US 0.5pp below target Eurozone higher but below target; Japan falling Puzzle of weak inflation but strong growth, tight labourmarkets has raised questions about the Phillips curve* Rising belief in structural disinflationary forces, including at central banks While we sympathise with these arguments, core inflation should move sustainably higher in 2018 Labour markets to tighten further Inflation leading indicators supportive (e.g., ISMs, metals prices, US dollar / import prices)-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5US Euro Area JapanLatest Average (2002-07)Source: Haver Analytics, National Sources, Deutsche Bank Research Core inflation below pre-crisis averages %y/y* Core PCE inflation used for USJapan: Sep-2017 Core CPI = 0-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4US Europe JapanCurrent 2018Labor market set to tighten further%Note: Data is unemployment rate minus NAIRU.Source: Haver Analytics, BLS, EC Statistical Office, Ministry of Internal affairs and Communication, Deutsche Bank Research 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5-80-60-40-2002040608010098 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16Metals (-20m, ls)US core cpi (rs)EUR core cpi (rs)%yoy %yoy0.00.51.01.52.02.52013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019%yoyUS EUNote (*): Phillips curve is the negative relationship between inflation and measures of economic slack, either the output gap or unemployment gap. Source: Haver Analytics, BLS, WB, Eurostat, Deutsche Bank Research Source: Haver Analytics, Eurostat, BLS, Deutsche Bank Research Core inflation expected to improve from recent lowsMetals prices lead US and EUR core inflationResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db 8US growth should remain solid as the drivers of growth broaden. We expect only a modest boost from tax cuts US growth has picked up: back-to-back 3%+ growth in Q2 and Q3 We expect 2.8% growth in Q4, lifting 2017 growth to 2.6% (Q4/Q4), strongest since 2014 Growth drivers have also broaden-ed, as stronger capex, trade have joined resilient consumer spending Solid performance should continue into 2018 Solid balance sheets, elevated optimism support consumer Capex lifted by firmer energy prices, solid global growth, and elevated business sentiment Financial conditions are at record easy levels Modest boost from tax cuts (a few tenths), if they occur Potential growth has been sub-dued but should pick up modestly Some scope for tepid product-ivity growth to improve-2.00.02.04.06.010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17%Real GDP. %q/q ARReal GDP , %y/yGrowth has picked up in recent quarters Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research -10-8-6-4-2024681085 90 95 00 05 10 15Real GDP ex PCE Real PCESource: Haver Analytics, BEA, Deutsche Bank Research %yoyAnd growth drivers have broadened beyond the consumer 808590951001051102040608010012014016000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16Consumer confidence (ls)NFIB small business optimism index (rs)Consumer and business confidence riding highIndex IndexSource: Haver A., Conference Board, NFIB, Deutsche Bank Research -8-6-4-202468-5-4-3-2-10122000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018DB high frequency FCI(1q ahead, ls)Real GDP (rs)Source: Haver Analytics, BEA, Deutsche Bank Research Financial conditions move to a new highIndex, 13w MA2q % change,ARResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db 9US tax reform is progressing faster than markets expected. This is positive for corporates, individuals but macro impact modestComparison of both bills House bill Senate billCorporate Rate 20%Tax cut in 2018 2019Repatriation Liquid assets at 14%Illiquid assets at 7%Bonus capexdepreciationExpires in 2022 Phases outHousehold Top rate 39.6% 38.5%Brackets Four SevenCurrent deductions*Eliminated PreservedStandarddeductionNearly doubledAlternative minimum taxEliminated Scaled back but not eliminatedChild tax credit $1,600 per child $2,000 per childPass throughs Top rate 25% with caveatsDeduct 23% of incomeState & local deductionPreserved for property tax up to $10,000Deficitimpact2018 $32bn / 0.2% of GDP2018-27 (10 yr) $1.45tnNote: (*) Deductions for medical expenses, student loans interest rates, personal exemptionSource: US House and US Senate, Deutsche Bank ResearchFinal bill to be closer to Senate bill US Congress working towards passing a bill to cut taxes for corporates and households odds have improved that this will be achieved by year-end House, Senate each passed own version of bill Conference to reconcile differences as next step Final bill to be closer to Senate version, as this is where voting constraints are Expect incremental deficit of $1.4tn over next ten years Tax cuts to be positive for corporates, households Corporate: rate cut from 35% to 20% in 2019; upfront expensing of investment; limits on interest deductibility; repatriation tax holiday Households: lower tax rates; eliminate most major deductions, including for state and local taxes; tax cuts expire after 2025 Other: small business tax cuts; pivot to a territorial corporate tax system Despite the positive impact at micro level, overall macro impact looks to be relatively limited Impact of only a few tenths of 1% of GDPResearchDeutsche BankThe House View 11 December 2017thehouseviewlist.db houseview.research.db 10We expect strong growth in the eurozone to continue into 2018, but this pace is unlikely to be sustained for very long1.01.52.02.5Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-172017 2018Dots represent current Deutsche Bank forecasts. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Eurozone growth came in stronger than expected, with 2017 growth nearly a full pp higher than foreseen a year agoEurozone GDP forecast, consensus-6-5-4-3-2-1012345-10-8-6-4-202462003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017Credit impulse, pp of GDP, 2Q leadPrivate domestic demand, %yoy (rhs)Source: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research The credit impulse* suggests a slower level of private domestic demand growth Eurozone to record strongest growth in a decade in 2017, showing resilience