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navigating complexity AI think, therefore AI am Are we ready for the next revolution in technology?Think:Act #24 02 | 2018 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE bonus POSTER T op thinkers on AIs future impact“People dont often realize that humans at work do a whole variety of tasks typically, and just because you automate one or two of them, jobs dont tend to go away. “ TOM DAVENPORT Professor at Babson College and author of Only Humans Need Apply read more on page 28 “Y oull see more and more everyday things becoming more alert to your context, a little bit smarter. “ DEMIS HASSABIS Artificial intelligence researcher and co-founder of DeepMind read more on page 12 3 Think:Act 24 in this issue 2 Think:Act 24 photo: russ campbell photo: adrian lourie / eyevine / intertopics“Y ou want to be careful about who you hire. The data suggests that having the right people on your bus isnt as critical as keeping the wrong people off that bus. “ ADAM GRANT Organizational psychologist and author of Give and T ake read more on page 70 “A thorough understanding of a company, its employees, its customers and products and its culture is a great help when it comes to shaping the future. “ HANS VAN BYLEN CEO of Henkel read more on page 66 5 Think:Act 24 in this issue 4 in this issue Think:Act 24 photo: slaven vlasic / getty images photo: ma ya claussencover illustration: erkin demir | photos: vcg / imago; spacex pr | illustration: ana kova The Artificial Intelligence Issue Friends or Foes? Aiming for the Perfect Moon Shot 74 32 8 At a Glance Interesting stuff you need to know in a snapshot. 20 Smarter Than Man Friday Charles-Edouard Boue on the Hirschhorn Theory and how we will manage in the future. 22 China Steps Up a Gear Chinas commitment to AI is transforming its economy. 28 Augmented Intelligence Smart machines are nothing to fear. In fact, they may free us to reimagine our working lives. 40 Imitating the Mind of a Child The answer to better AI may be closer to home than we think. 46 The New Melody Makers Computers are taking on a brand new role in pop music. 48 Journalists vs. Robots Disruption is far from old news. For journalism, its just begun. 52 New Laws for Machines to Live By The technology may still be in its infancy, but experts are calling on policymakers to act. The new space race is on. But its not countries footing the bill this time around its companies. Some see a bleak, jobless future ahead. For others, its the dawn of a new harmon y betw een man and machine. Think:Act Getting Down to Business With AI The Future of Artificial Intelligence: Beyond the Hype 12 56 A Question of Trust Storing, mining and monetizing data is big business, but bigger opportunities may go to those prioritizing consumer privacy. 62 Gender on the Pay Agenda With like-for-like pay gaps having all but disappeared, we look at the causes behind the ongoing earning disparity. 66 Were equipping Henkel for the digital future CEO Hans Van Bylen talks about his ambitions for digital transformation by 2020. 70 Goodbye, Groupthink Adam Grant wants todays businesses to reap the rewards of inspiring generosity and focusing on original thought. 80 Food for Thought T ake a deep dive and nd out more in related articles and studies. 82 Should We Fear the Singularity? Scientist and writer Vernor Vinge weighs in on the rise of arti cial superintelligence and if it will actually happen. It seems like suddenly everyone is talking about how AI will change the world. We cut through the hype and fi nd out what it will really mean for business once you push those fears of killer robots aside, of course. 7 contents CHARLES-EDOUARD BOUE CEO of Roland Berger “The coming revolution in portable artificial intelligence will dramatically shift the balance of power between large firms and users. “ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 6 in this issue Think:Act 24 photo: jan vothAT A GLANCE 10% the new energy vehicle score (linked to the production of zero- or low-emission vehicles) that China has imposed on automakers manufacturing or importing more than 30,000 vehicles annually. Automakers must reach that target by 2019, which will then rise to 12% in 2020. 126m people the number of Americans that Facebook now says were reached by Russian- backed posts during and after the 2016 US presidential election. 100 the length in feet of a large, mysterious and void-like space recently discovered inside the Great Pyramid of Giza by a French team using cosmic rays to gain a view of the ancient structures hidden secrets. $10bn the estimated value of the opioid drugs industry in the US. The painkiller use epidemic has been called the worst drug crisis to hit the US. Can you shape experiences and capitalize on opportunities to create them?by Chip and Dan Heath Food for Thought Think in Numbers “Kill chain“ Get to grips with new industry lingo in a flash with our stripped-down explanations of the latest jargon. “Someone is sitting in the shade today, because someone planted a tree a long time ago.“ Warren Buffett Investor and philanthropist If someone on your team asks “whats our kill chain here?“ you should know that what they mean is the step-by-step analysis. It sounds aggressive because it comes from the militarys four Fs: Find, Fix, Fight, Finish. Re- Thinking Buzzwords Thoughts to Live By brothers chip and dan heath are co-authors of the bestselling business books Switch and Made to Stick. Their new publication The Power of Moments: Why Certain Experiences Have Extraordinary Impact is out now. Dan is a professor at Duke University and Chip is a professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business. on your couch. For anyone in the business of serving others patients, customers, employees this is a critical lesson. Great experiences hinge on peak moments, and peak moments dont build themselves. We must create them. psychologists know that we dont remember experiences start to finish, like a video that we can play back in our heads. Rather we forget most of what happened and hold on to certain key moments. Specifically, we tend to remember two particular moments: the “peak,“ which is the best moment in a positive experience; and the ending. Heres what the research is telling us: Some moments matter vastly more than others. And it helps explain what we might call the Disney Paradox: If you were to measure your minute-by-minute happiness at a Disney theme park on a hot, crowded summer day, chances are you would have been happier for most of the day if you were sitting on your couch at home. But, in memory, the Disney visit might be a highlight of your year. And youre not crazy to think that, because at the park you experienced some peak moments the kinds of moments that never come from sitting Borrowing a phrase that was apparently coined at Lockheed Martin for a cyber-defence system, however, might be a little jarring. Also, its been used for years by gamers, so it might not be a good look. And since the word “strategy“ will do, why not just use that? photos: travel ink / getty images; henry medina 9 Think:Act 24 at a gL aNce 8 Think:Act 24AT A GLANCE the Redacted Read Actual cost Best Practice today we have more opportunities to be connected than at any time in human history. Mobile, social media and the internet make up the background hum in every corner of the planet. But how healthy or desirable is this? There is an edge of madness creeping into all of this and its called “overload.“ Humanity is beginning to choke on the fumes of excess connection. We suffer from information obesity, time star- vation, techno-spread (when technology expands around us like a ballooning waistline), network tangle, organizational bloat and life gridlock. We need to start looking after our “social health,“ bal- ancing our face-to-face and electronic connections in a way that manages flows of knowledge, networks and time. People with social health know how to use technology and where to find the off switch.T o reach that state, you need to follow the Hexagon of Social Health. The top three factors are: knowledge, networks and time (the KNOT), the key con- straints in this age of overload. Three coping mechanisms can help untie the KNOT. These are management, communication you enter a conference room in India expecting the meeting to start when you were told. But often, it does not. Fret not, for this is a matter Indians self-deprecatingly refer to as Indian Standard Time (IST). It might be inconvenient, but it isnt meant to be rude. These benign delays are so routine that youll find few Indians notice them anymore. Senior business executives, who are used to working with international guests, will be on time, and so will flights and most trains. But the rest of India might still waylay you. Your cab may arrive 10 minutes late or lunch might be served slowly, setting in motion a daylong domino effect of delays. To save time and spare yourself the anxiety, do what punctual Indians do: Work the uncertainty into your plans. Set your watch to reflect a 10-minute, even a 15-minute, delay. Call a cab driver earlier than you need. The only way to truly beat IST is to give in to its predictability. and a sixth sense, and together they form the balancing half of the hexagon: management: Its important to manage the pace, process and performance of your work. communication: Think before you write. In the general swirl of overload, the risk of miscommunication is high. sixth sense: Pay attention if something doesnt smell right. When all are at sea in a tsunami of overload, such factors may just be the cure. Too busy to read the strategy books? We have it covered for you. Heres Julia Hobsbawms new book cut down to its essentials, in the style of the original. Everything connects Time is of the essence if you are doing business in India that chocolate bar may have tasted nice, but as you indulge yourself a little, maybe think beyond the price tag: There are the social and environmental costs of subsistence cocoa farming in West Africa and South America to consider. Fair trade and small-batch chocolates, as well as growing demand from Asia, are also having an impact on prices. Here we have broken down the cost of a good quality $2.50 US chocolate bar, chunk by chunk. Fully Connected: Surviving and Thriving in an Age of Overload by Julia Hobsbawm. 256 pages. Bloomsbury Business. $28. british farmers are starting to feel the pinch of Brexit, according to some sources. Reports say that fruit and vegetables are being left to rot in the fields due to a shortage of migrant labor from EU countries. The UK has become less attractive to seasonal workers many of whom come from Romania and Bulgaria because of the fall in value of sterling against the euro, one of the consequences of the referendum vote in 2016 to leave the European Union. The National Farmers Union is calling on the UK government to implement a seasonal agriculture workers scheme to help alleviate the problem. economic impact Brexit field study photos: westend61 / getty images; i images / imago sources: oxfam, wageningen university, tejas chocolate, hardman the share price of Nvidia, the leading maker of GPUs, has risen more than tenfold in the past four years as a result. Deep learnings power was first apparent in 2012 at the annual ImageNet competi- tion, which pits image recognition systems against each other. That year a deep learning system demonstrated an unprecedented improvement in accuracy, easily winning the competition. That prompted widespread adoption. “The applications are so broad. There are so many ways to use it,“ says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang from his self-driving car, which contains two of his companys chips, as it drives him to work in Silicon Valley. 10+ The factor by which Nvidias stock price has risen in four years. It closed at $12.72 on Jan. 2, 2013; $102.01 on Jan. 3, 2017. By October 2017, the price per share was approaching $200. Theres been excitement about AI before. Is this time really different? es. building software systems that learn from data, rather than following explicit rules hand-coded by human programmers, is not new. Previous bursts of enthusiasm around AI always ran out of steam as the technol- ogy proved difficult to scale up or deploy, however, resulting in fallow periods known as “AI winters.“ This time around, deep learning systems are pow- erful enough that they have been deployed on a large scale by internet companies, and are now used on a daily basis by billions of people, most of whom are entirely unaware of it. Deep learning systems underpin Googles search engine and translation services, suggest replies to emails and recognize speech for its smartphone assistant. Facebook uses deep learning to recognize and help tag people in uploaded photographs, and to figure out which posts and advertisements to show to users. Deep learning powers Apples Siri and Amazons Alexa. Chinese internet giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent are all using it too. In short, and in contrast to previous AI technologies, it has proven to be applicable to a wide range of tasks and is reliable enough to be embedded in systems that people use every day. “Youre using it when you talk to your phone, when you search for something on the internet. Youre using it already in so many ways,“ says Richard Socher, an AI researcher who is now chief scientist at Salesforce. Even if the tech- nology failed to advance any further, says Yoshua Bengio, a pioneer in the field of deep learning, there are still lots of areas where it can be usefully applied. Another deep “AI winter“ seems unlikely. digital pa amanda orders a driverless taxi to get to an early doctors appointment. h er ai assistant set up the appointment based on her work patterns. data-based diagnosis amandas doctor is assisted by genomic pattern recognition. t agged data is fed into the database. suiting her needs amanda walks to work and tasks her ai assistant to order her a suit, which is later delivered to the office by a driverless drone. by T om Standage illustrations by Ana Kova 15 Think:Act 24 ai exPL ained 14 ai exPL ained Think:Act 24 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
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