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OUTLOOKWORLDEMPLOYMENTSOCIALWORLD EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL OUTLOOK TRENDS2019ILOTRENDS2019International Labour Office GenevaWORLDEMPLOYMENTSOCIALOUTLOOKTRENDS 2019World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2019 International Labour Office Geneva: ILO, 2019ISBN 978-92-2-132952-7 (print) ISBN 978-92-2-132953-4 (web pdf) ISBN 978-92-2-132954-1 (epub) ISBN 978-92-2-132955-8 (mobi)employment / unemployment / labour market analysis / labour policy / economic development / sustainable development / trend / Africa / America / Arab countries / Asia / Central Asia / Europe / Pacific13.01.3The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at: ilo/publns.Copyright International Labour Organization 2019First published 2019Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: rightsilo. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications.Libraries, institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit ifrro to find the reproduction rights organization in your country.ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data Produced by the Publications Production Unit (PRODOC) of the ILO.Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy editing, layout and composition, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution.The ILO endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner.Code: CMD-CORREDIT-WEI-COUCover photos:iStock photos: UntitledImages, Women working to produce woven carpets ; pixelfusion3d, Farmer pulling agriculture equipment; SamuelBrownNG, Checking sales reports; hadynyah , Indian street vendor selling sweets near Jaipur.Preface iiiThis report assesses the impact of both new and long-standing challenges on global labour market trends. Its analysis should also be useful in considering the recommendations in the Report of the Global Commission on the Future of Work (ILO, 2019) and its call for a new focus on the changing nature of employment and its place in economy and society, as part of a “human-centred agenda for the future of work”.If such an agenda is to be pursued, our analysis of labour market trends must be attentive to certain key issues. These include: equity considering, for example, the shared experience of growth and decent work between and within regions; an expanded selection of indicators of labour market performance such as informality, underemployment and in-work poverty, in addition to the standard employment rate and unemployment rate indicators; gender, with a disaggregation of statistics not only to highlight gender differences but also to understand properly the functioning of labour markets; and sustainability, for example by understanding the virtuous and vicious cycles generated by the interaction of labour market characteristics.This latest report on labour market trends moves towards a more nuanced and more holistic approach that could facilitate possible new approaches in working towards “a brighter future” (ibid.). Chapter 1 presents the global picture, disaggregated where possible to countries categorized by income level. Chapter 2 considers what is happening at regional level with a distinctive narrative that reflects key empirical realities, as well as policy concerns, within each region. Chapter 3 provides some initial findings on progress towards SDG 8, the UNs 2030 Sustainable Development Goal for “inclusive and sustainable growth, employment and decent work for all”. The ILO will be developing a deeper, multidimensional analysis over the coming months as part of its preparations for the UNs High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development in July 2019.It is more vital than ever that the ILOs global vision of decent work, inclusive growth and social justice should be founded on robust, up-to-date and relevant labour market research and data. We hope that this report will make an important contribution to that end.Guy Ryder ILO Director-GeneralPrefaceAcknowledgements vAcknowledgementsWorld Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2019 was prepared by the Labour Market Trends and Policy Evaluation Unit of the ILO Research Department. The report was produced by Stefan Khn, Santo Milasi and Damian Grimshaw, Director of the Research Department. Ekkehard Ernst and Lisa Feist provided important contributions. Erika Chaparro provided valuable research assistance.The ILO modelled estimates presented in this report are produced in cooperation between the Labour Market Trends and Policy Evaluation Unit of the ILO Research Department, led i.a. by Vernica Escudero, and the Data Production and Analysis Unit of the ILO Department of Statistics, led by Steven Kapsos. The authors of this report would specifically like to thank Roger Gomis for the excellent col-laboration on model development and for the verification of results. The underlying database of labour market indicators is collected by the ILO Department of Statistics.Excellent comments and suggestions were provided by Damian Grimshaw, Director of the ILO Research Department, Deborah Greenfield, Deputy Director-General for Policy of the ILO, and James Howard, Senior Adviser to the Director-General of the ILO.The ILO Research Department wishes to acknowledge the comments and suggestions provided by Antoine Bonnet, Aurelio Parisotto, Beate Andrees, Carlos Andre da Silva Gama Nogueira, Catherine Saget, Christian Viegelahn, Christina Behrendt, Domenico Tabasso, Elisenda Estruch Puertas, Guillermo Montt, Kee Beom Kim, Ken Chamuva Shawa, Marva Corley-Coulibaly, Michelle Leighton, Naren Prasad, Patrick Belser, Sara Elder, Shane Ohiggins, Uma Rani, Vernica Escudero and Waltteri Katajamaki. The authors are also grateful for the suggestions received from the ILO Regional Offices for Africa, the Arab States, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.We would also like to express our thanks to Judy Rafferty and our colleagues in the Publications Production Unit for assisting with the production process, and our colleagues in the ILO Department of Communication and Public Information for their continued collaboration and support in disseminating the publication.Table of contents viiTable of contentsPreface iiiAcknowledgements vExecutive summary 11. Global employment and social trends 5The global labour market at a glance 5Labour force participation 9Employment-to-population ratio 11Informality and status in employment 12Structural transformation and job quality 14Income 15Unemployment 18Extended labour underutilization 23Labour markets and social unrest 242. Employment and social trends by region 27Africa 28Americas 35Arab States 42Asia and the Pacific 44Europe and Central Asia 483. Sustainable Development Goal 8. Is the world moving towards more inclusive economic growth and decent work? 57Sustainable Development Goal 8: Targets and indicators 58Economic growth, transformation and productivity 60Full and productive employment for all, with equal pay for work of equal value 65Rights, safety and non-exploitative work 69Summary of progress on Sustainable Development Goal 8 and next steps 71AppendicesA. Country groupings by region and income level 75B. ILO modelled estimates 77C. The relationship between the social unrest index and the unemployment rate 83D. Tables of labour market indicators worldwide, by country income group and by region/subregion 84Bibliography 117viii World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2019Boxes1.1 Why is unemployment so low in some low- and middle-income countries? 201.2 Labour flows: Why it is important to look beyond unemployment figures 213.1 Targets and indicators for Sustainable Development Goal 8 59B1 Revisions to unemployment estimates 78Figures1.1 Snapshot of the global labour market, 2018 61.2 Growth of global labour force, employment and productivity, 19922020 (percentages) 71.3 Average growth of GDP and its two components (labour productivity and employment), global and by country income group, 19982020 (percentages) 81.4 Distribution of employment by aggregate sectors, global and by country income group, 1991 and 2018 (percentages) 141.5 Changes in extreme and moderate working poverty, 19932018 161.6 Real wage growth, global and by country income group, 200017 (percentages) 171.7 Global unemployment rate, 200020 (percentages) 181.8 Labour flows and unemployment rates, Germany, Italy, Japan and United States, 200018 (percentages) 211.9 Social unrest index, global and by subregion, 2018 242.1 Distribution of working-age population by status in the labour market, Africa, 2018 (percentages) 282.2 Distribution of the working-age, inactive, employed and unemployed population by sex and age group, Northern Africa, 2018 (percentages) 302.3 Employment by economic sector, sub-Saharan Africa, 200018 (millions) 332.4 Share of respondents who desire/plan to move abroad, sub-Saharan Africa, 2015/16 (percentages) 342.5 Labour force participation rates by broad age group, Canada and United States, 2000, 2008 and 2018 (percentages) 372.6 Distribution of employment by status and country income group in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2018 (percentages) 392.7 Variation in the share of informal employment in market services across Latin America and the Caribbean, latest year (percentages) 412.8 Relationship between informal employment and multidimensional poverty in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, latest year 412.9 Employment shares by broad sector, Asia and the Pacific, 2000 and 2018 (percentages) 462.10 Share of temporary employment in total employment across sectors, Asia and the Pacific, latest year (percentages) 472.11 Share of workers working excessive hours in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Myanmar and Viet Nam, selected sectors, latest year (percentages) 482.12 Distribution of temporary employment contracts by contract duration, countries in Northern, Southern and Western Europe, 2017 (percentages) 502.13 Share of part-time workers by main reason for part-time employment and by sex, Northern, Southern and Western Europe, 2017 (percentages) 513.1 Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, global and by country income group, 200018 (percentages) 613.2 Annual growth rate of real GDP per worker, global and by country income group, 200018 (percentages) 623.3 Proportion of informal employment in non-agricultural employment, by sex and country income group, latest available year (percentages) 633.4 Domestic material consumption per capita and per unit of GDP, global and by region, 200016 64Table of contents ixTables1.1 Labour force participation rates, global and by country income group, level in 2018 and changes during 19932023 101.2 Employment-to-population ratio, global and by country income group, 1993, 2018 and 2020 (percentages) 111.3 Informality and employment status, global and by country income group, levels in 2016 and 2018, and projected changes during 201823 121.4 Working poverty, by country income group and demographic group, 1993, 2018 and 2023 161.5 Rate and level of unemployment, global and by country income group and demographic group, 201720 191.6 Labour underutilization (based on LU3 indicator) and potential labour force, global and by country income group, 2018 232.1 Unemployment, employment growth, labour productivity growth and working poverty trends and projections, Africa, 200720 292.2 Unemployment, employment growth and labour productivity growth trends and projections, Northern America, 200720 362.3 Unemployment, employment growth, labour productivity growth and working poverty trends and projections, Latin America and the Caribbean, 200720 382.4 Unemployment, employment growth, labour productivity growth and working poverty trends and projections, Arab States, 200720 422.5 Unemployment, employment growth, labour productivity growth and working poverty trends and projections, Asia and the Pacific, 200720 452.6 Unemployment, employment growth and labour productivity growth trends and projections, Northern, Southern and Western Europe, 200720 492.7 Unemployment, employment growth, labour productivity growth and working poverty trends and projections, Eastern Europe and Central and Western Asia, 200720 53C1 Estimated regression coefficients 833.5 Three indicators measuring the accessibility of financial services, by country income group, latest available year 643.6 Distribution of unemployment rates by age, sex, disability status and country income group, 2018 (percentages) 663.7 Young people with NEET status, by sex, global and by country income group, 2005 and 2018 (percentages) 673.8 Wage premium for men relative to women by occupation, latest available year (percentages) 683.9 Number of children involved in child labour, 517 years age range, actual and projected trend lines, 200025 703.10 Rates of fatal and non-fatal occupational injuries, European Union and rest of the world, latest available year (since 2010) 71Executive summary 1Inclusive and well-functioning labour markets are central to the ILOs mandate of delivering decent work and supporting social justice. This is because paid work is the main source of income for the vast majority of households worldwide, and also because the organization of work can reinforce the core principles of equality, democracy, sustainability and social cohesion. This notion is reinforced during 2019, the ILOs Centenary, by the powerful vision advanced by the Report of the Global Commission on the Future of Work1to secure a human-centred agenda for the future of work. The report c
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