2019英国媒体预测报告.pdf

NOV 2018 UK MEDIA FORECASTS This Year Next YearContents INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 TELEVISION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 RADIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 CONSUMER PRESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 OUTDOOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 CINEMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 DIGITAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 GroupM 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data is as up-to-date only to the extent that their availability, compilation and printed schedules will allow and are subject to change. UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 This Year Next YearTHIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 4 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 The governments Office for Budget Responsibility has no special gift for astrology, but determines Brexit damage will be relatively small. Another forecaster, Oxford Economics, reckons a no-deal Brexit would mean the economy grows 27% by 2030 instead of 31%. HSBC thinks no deal would spell an immediate 2% recession. What is perhaps more illuminating is Deloittes October 2018 CFO survey, which found Brexit being by far the biggest threat to British business over the next 12 months, ahead of weak demand, trade wars and geopolitics. This feeds into a gloomy narrative of cost reduction and deferred investment/hiring. The economy is actually doing OK, with GDP growth sequentially accelerating to 0.7% in the rolling quarter to end-August 2018; wages growing 2.9% MayJuly 2018, the fastest in more than three years; and in March the manufacturing sector (admittedly only 10% of the economy) marking its longest sustained period of job creation in 40 years. Weak sterling will have helped: a floating national currency is a gift the eurozone foreswore itself 20 years ago. Brexit might produce another surge: some would argue this is to be welcomed as an automatic stabiliser and worth some short-term pain. 2017 media investment growth of 6.4% is looking more like the peak we suggested, as we shave our outlook for 2018 to 6.0% 2018 (from 6.1%) and 4.8% 2019 (from 5.1%). Pure-play internet growth appears to us to be slowing down. We have digital growth pegged back to 11% for the full year 2018 and another step down to 9% for 2019. This would still account for all net new growth in UK advertising investment. As we see in other countries, TV price inflation arising from the loss of the measured 1634 audience inflation is becoming painful for advertisers and killing growth in TV ad investment in developed economies generally. Facebook is still winning share of audio-visual investment, and is heavily video- biased for large advertisers. But TV is still doing the big basic things well: arguing its case for safety and certainty, with convincing proofs of ROI. Print brands are still losing more in traditional than they gain in digital, but the medium is getting better at collective defence. In audience measurement, the new PAMCo system is already deployed tactically, and will shape advertiser strategy as it beds in. Sales point collaboration has progressed markedly with the national publishers Ozone offer, and multi-title packaging remains a competitive and popular option for advertisers, buttressed by recent ownership consolidation. Our radio forecast is up, as rising demand pours into well-sold inventory. Radio resilience comes from relatively limited loss of young audiences; from not depending upon them excessively for ad sales anyway; selling an ambiance rather than particular programmes; from being a passive medium; and being free to the listener. Sports popularity is under attack from festivals, gaming, social media and piracy. Radio suffers none of this. Last time we thought out-of-homes digital build out had gone about as far as it could, but it is still going. There is enough digital capacity to get a solus-digital national campaign away in small sizes at high prices. The digital price is falling, and will have to fall a lot more before national campaigns on solus digital 48s are going to make sense. The day may yet come. Today our figures show digital commanding 50% of ad investment. 60% is in reach. Progress in advanced out-of-home targeting remains incremental, hemmed in by multiple standards and formats. IntroductionTHIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 5 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 INTRODUCTION TOP ADVERTISERS (HOLDING COMPANY LEVEL) OCT 2017 TO SEPT 2018 M YOY% BT Group Plc 211 -7.7 Procter vendors cannot toggle between different methods to fix supply problems, and those problems can become the advertisers problems when real-world campaigning gets disrupted. But this hybrid is likely to become more common as audience measurement struggles to cover every screen the same way, and vendors see more monetisation potential in their peripheral/unmatched audiences than in winning an inch or two in the trench-warfare battle for share. Facebook is still winning share of audio-visual, and is heavily video-biased for large advertisers. The main reason is convenience and the lust for performance. Advertisers are however taking more care in how they use Facebook, which partly explains its slower growth in 2018. These checks include using only made-for-platform copy, as opposed to testing audience patience with uncut TV copy; more systematic explanation of channel selection (cheapest first is a useful rule); being more alive to diminishing returns and opportunity cost; and being on guard when Facebook makes investment so beguilingly quick and easy. Advertising and user experience seem increasingly uncomfortable in each others company. The excellent Sky Q invites users away from interruptive advertising, and may be stoking ad cost inflation in consequence. In Europe, it is commonly assumed Netflix (and Amazon Prime) complement more than substitute existing TV. The USA is certainly a different TV market, but Morgan Stanley makes the interesting observation that 20% Netflix penetration marked the peak of linear TV viewing in the US, which then decayed in near-perfect correlation to Netflixs rising penetration. It seems likely that over time more UK homes will opt out of more TV advertising, the snowball starting in affluent homes in peak. Where it has dominion, ad-supported TV remains hands down the most effective advertising medium. It consistently and convincingly argues for its safety and certainty, with proofs of ROI. Measurement and validation is a long-term struggle, but BARB remains the global gold standard, striving to satisfy almost infinite expectations. In May and June ITV offered an advance-booking-penalty amnesty in response to criticism that Google and Facebook are open and happy to welcome customers 24/7, whereas TV shakes latecomers down. That is an unfair characterisation, as any advertiser consenting to share dealing will concede. The gesture might have had more impact if Sky and C4 had joined in too, but they probably have greater need to levy AB premiums to offset discounts in their main book. We saw no rush of unpenalised money flowing to ITV during the amnesty, but it seems to us ITV AB deadlines have become less painful since then. THIS YEAR PAR, NEXT YEAR +1%THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 9 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 TELEVISION TOP CATEGORIES OCT 2017 TO SEPT 2018 TOP CATEGORIES OCT 2017 TO SEPT 2018 M YOY% Finance 553 7.8 Food 542 -1.9 Entertainment not depending upon them for ad sales anyway; selling an ambiance rather than particular programmes; being a passive medium; and being free to the listener. Sports popularity is under attack from festivals, gaming, social media and piracy. Radio suffers none of this. Radio CPTs are still small. Annual negotiations will however be tougher, and advertisers will head into streaming for some respite, where breaks are rising from an established one minute per hour to two and three, compared to traditional radio at 10 minutes. Globals diversification into out-of-home is rational. The competition regulator had already frozen its share of the radio market. Out-of-home complements on-the-go audio, from drivetime to podcasts, with synchronisation possibilities from the simple to the sophisticated. Few media have the technical capacity to measure unduplicated reach and frequency in cross-media campaigns, but one proxy used in radio is to measure awareness scores, giving some idea of the best mix. Common ownership makes unified measurement easier. We imagine Global will offer a reach-and-frequency dashboard, perhaps impressions-based. Spotify has been hiring, and ad sales service has improved. In common with many digital media, streaming audio can be sliced and diced by place and people, but in practice most streaming is bought at network level, with only the audience refined. Discrimination by place can also be achieved by dynamic creative. Sponsorship is sold out. It is hard to create more opportunities, but Global is still working on untapped potential in festivals. The promotion side is flat for the opposite reason it can be a lot of work creating bespoke events. Digital and streaming revenues are not included in the Ad Association figure. In our mid-2018 edition we estimated this at between 40m and 50m. The mix of static and dynamic activity makes this very hard to pin down, but the run rate is probably above 100m already. THIS YEAR +10%, NEXT YEAR +7% (SPOT REVENUE)