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Urban air mobilityThe rise of a new mode of transportationNovember 2018Management summaryDriven by increasing urbanization, the worsening bane of road congestion and new advances in aircraft tech-nology and electric propulsion, the time is now ripe for the emergence of urban air mobility (UAM) the trans-portation of persons or goods via flying vehicles over urban areas as a new industrynullnullose to nullnullnullnullpas -senger drones could be in service worldwide by nullnullnullnuller time, advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology and null communication networnull will spawn on-demand air tanull services, scheduled airport shuttles and intercity flightsnullUrban air mobility adds a third dimension to the urban transportation matrinullnullnull provides an attractive solution for areas where merely increasing two-dimensional capacity would in no way ease the enullsting traffic situationnullnull also creates new op -portunities for travelers for whom personal comfort and speed are at a premium, as well as for rescue services and para-public applicationsnull Urban air mobility will gradually be integrated in the enullsting mobility land -scape, bringing a time-efficient mode of travel and a safe, ennullyable flight enullerience to more and more passengers at increasingly low costnull nullith flagship pilot pronullcts scheduled to go live in cities such as Dubai, nullingapore, nullos Angeles and Dallas in the early nullnullnull, better batteries, new aircraft designs and as of the late nullnulls autonomous flight technology will bring prices down and spread services to manullr metropolitan areas around the globenullnulle winners in this enullciting new marnullet will be those who address its complenull, interdisciplinary needs in close collaboration with manufacturers, infrastructure and service providers and the relevant regulatory and urban authoritiesnullnulle pivotal success factor is choosing the right use case from the broad array of aircraftnullrone conceptsnullnullch has its own benefits and limitations, and not all tech-nologies suit all applicationsnullnullet around this central issue, further success factors will include development of a suitable infrastructure for tanulle-off and landing spots, maintenance, energy supply and communication, the emergence of service providers with robust com-mercial and operating models, and a regulatory frame-wornullto control and govern safety, liability, emissions and a host of other issuesnull2 Roland Berger Focus Urban air mobility Contents1. From dream to reality . 4Urban air mobility is poised to become a fast-growing business2. What form will UAM take in the future? . 9Three use cases 3. The pivotal success factor . 13Choosing the “right“ aircraft4. Its not just about drones! . 15Other key success factors for the UAM market5. Conclusion . 17How to implement UAM successfullyCoverphoto: GCShutter/iStockphoto; Chesky_W/GettyImagesUrban air mobility Roland Berger Focus 3Urban air mobility (UAM) is an attractive business prop-ositionnullnullot too far off in the future, what is currently the enullclusive preserve of the ultra-rich flying over all the traffic nullams from one urban location to another could become common practicenullnulle potential benefits of inner- and intra-city electrical vertical tanulle-off and landing (enullnull) commutes are genuinely appealing and can be a perfect fit with the needs of customers if this nascent industry can deliver on five nulley promisesnullKEY PROMISE 1 FASTEST TRAVEL OPTIONnullving significant amounts of time compared to tanulls and subway lines, for enullmple, would manulle the use of urban air services highly attractive to passengersnull nullaring in mind the time tanullen for boardingnulle-board -ing and actually getting to and from a landing hub, enull null aircraft need trips to be at least nullnull to null nullilo -meters in order to deliver genuine time savings and become the fastest urban mobility optionnullnull they do achieve this goal, they can bypass (and potentially ease) the hassle of congestion, while also streamlining the poor connections to airports from which many manullr cities still suffer todaynullKEY PROMISE 2 REASONABLE FARES null megacities such as nullo nullulo and nullew nullornull ultra-high-net-worth individuals and top enullecutives already commute by helicopter from the airport to the city center, or between points in the city centernullnull contrast, the switch to electric propulsion and eventually autono-mous flight operations will slash purchase prices and running costs for enullnull vehicles by an order of magni -tude, opening up the urban air enullerience to a much wider target groupnullUnmanned flights based on autono -mous technology will reduce costs still furthernullnulloling passengers (enullgnullfrom the airport to the city center) could then combine with the above cost reductions to manulle the urban flight enullerience available at costs still higher than tanulls but much more affordable than todaynull helicopter servicesnullKEY PROMISE 3SAFE AND ENJOYABLE FLIGHT EXPERIENCEAnyone who has ever flown over a city in a helicopter will have enullerienced the nullaw-dropping enullcitement and nully such a flight can delivernullnulle human desire to fly is an appeal that should not be underestimated, even though safety is naturally more important and must be guaranteed at all timesnullnullucially, passengers must also perceive this mode of transport as safe and reliable, and a robust regulatory framewornullwill go a long way to allaying passengersnullfearsnullnull the early stag -es, for enullmple, flight attendants made available by the flight operator firms could linullewise help many people overcome their understandable psychological reserva-tions about autonomous aircraft in particularnullnulle fact that electric propulsion will play a part in reducing car-bon emissions in cities is another issue that will add to both the real and perceived attraction of this mode of transportationnullnullwever, it is not nullust the technical as -pects that will manulle flights safe and ennullyable for pas -sengersnullnullrticular attention will need to be paid to environmental aspects, such as harsh weather condi-tions that would manulle the flight uncomfortable or even unsafenullKEY PROMISE 4INTEGRATED MOBILITY SOLUTIONAttractive enullnull solutions will dovetail with other local mobility services, giving passengers seamless connec-tions from their location to the departure hub and from the arrival hub to their final destinationnullnullat alone will marnull a manullor step forward from the complenull, disnullinted mobility chains we nullow todaynullnullline boonullng apps 1. From dream to reality Urban air mobility is poised to become a fast-growing business4 Roland Berger Focus Urban air mobility A: Passenger drone operations forecastNumber of passenger drones in UAM operation worldwide 000Note: Estimated that 100 cities will have UAM operations in 2050Source: Roland BergerIntercity flights Air taxis Airport shuttles2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050987553281230uct, gradually morphing into an integrated public transportation offering over timenullKEY PROMISE 5 PASSENGER-WINNING SERVICEAt the end, the winners will be the ones who create truly passenger-winning servicesnullnullonvenience will be a nulley metric for customer adoption of enullnull servicesnullnullor enull -ample, tanulle-off and landing locations will have to be strategically positioned at areas of interest and easily accessible for travelersnullnullis includes the already men -will arrange reservations and handle payment for whole nullurneys (enullnullcalling a ride-hailing service to picnullup and bring the passenger to the enullnull hub, as well as buying a subway ticnullet for the last-mile nullurney at the other end)nullnull this way, a vastly superior door-to-door customer enullerience will be guaranteednullnulltelligent marnulleting that educates customers will nevertheless need to spell out these benefitsnullnullat will be vital if urban air mobility is indeed to become a fully integrated and widely accepted mode of transportationnullnullitially, enullnull will be positioned as a high-end prod -Urban air mobility Roland Berger Focus 5tioned connection to other mobility services as well as nulluicnullaccess to landing pads, enullnullwith dedicated eleva -tors to rooftop padsnull nullaiting times also will have to be nullept to a minimum, which would be optimized through intelligent boonullng and dynamic passenger demand forecast algorithmsnull Aerospace companies and startups alinulle have nullined the race to translate the vision of flying tanulls from science fiction into reality before nullnullnullMany of the concepts under development even plan to do so without a pilot on boardnull nullis study enullmines promising technical concepts and paints a picture of the emerging enullnull ecosystem with its stanulleholders and nulley success factorsnullnulle also highlight where we see manullr challenges and how they can be overcomenull AMARKET POTENTIALnullr research (see nullethodologynullon nenull page), corrob -orated by numerous interviews with enullerts in the industry, indicates that close to nullnullnullnullpassenger drones could be in the air worldwide by nullnullnullnullnull nullome-thing linulle nullnullcities worldwide will have implemented drone services to provide a variety of passenger trans-port services by then, with on average nullnullnullpassenger drones in operation in each citynullnullwever, there will be a large spread of drones per city ranging in nullnull from null drones for the smallest metropolitan areas to more than nullnullnullin the largest onesnullnullsed on this scenario, drones will become an integral part of urban (and supra-urban) mobility offerings over the nenull three decadesnullnull the first few years, we foresee passenger drones mainly being used as airport shuttlesnullnullile this service remains an important use case going forward, the manullrity of pas -senger drones will later assume the role of point- to-point air tanullsnullDrones for longer-distance intercity flights will complement the passenger drone marnulletnull nullese three use cases are described in detail in chapter nullWe will see the first commercially used urban air mobility routes starting in 2025. First pilot tests are expected to start as early as around 2020.6 Roland Berger Focus Urban air mobility The market potential is estimated based on bottom-up calcu-lation of the number of urban aircraft required to offer viable eVTOL services in major cities.Four case study cities Los Angeles, Munich, So Paulo and Singapore were chosen as the point of departure for this study. They reflect four distinct categories or “urban archetypes“ in terms of population density and surface area: Singapore has by far the highest population density in nearly the smallest urban area, while Los Angeles has the lowest population density and the largest surface area. For each of these cities, potential urban air mobility routes linking key traffic nodes (such as airports) to points of interest (city centers, shopping malls etc.) were identified based on the urban architecture. One important factor was either the availability of helipads or space to build new infrastructure sites. This issue was assessed with the aid of Google Earth, to see where new ground infrastructure could potentially be built, in conjunction with data available in the public domain regarding existing helipads.We then postulated the number of passengers for urban air mobility services based on available commuter data as well as percentages for switching to this new service based on our interviews with numerous industry experts. The num-ber of drones per route was then determined by the maxi-mum number of passengers per hour at peak times. BMethodology How did we calculate market potential?B: Greater Munich metropolitan areaExample of estimated passenger demand based on available commuter dataAUGSBURGINGOLSTADTLANDSHUTMUC AIRPORTROSENHEIMMUNICHSource: Statistik Arbeitsagentur, Munich airport, Google maps, press research, Roland BergerExisting heliportPotential UAM routePotential UAM airport shuttleSize equals # of commutersMunich - Augsburg 80 km 2,000 per day 9,100 per dayMunich - Ingolstadt 80 km 1,800 per day2,300 per dayMunich - Landshut 73 km 450 per day3,900 per dayMunich - Rosenheim 67 km 1,100 per day 8,400 per dayAugsburg - Ingolstadt 78 km 170 per day 170 per dayPotential UAM routesPotential UAM airport shuttleDistance Distance Commuter demand # of commuters outbound / inboundPotential demand per route per day # of travelersMUC - Munich 40 km 34,000MUC - Augsburg 85 km 6,600MUC - Ingolstadt 71 km 3,300MUC - Landshut 41 km 1,600MUC - Rosenheim 100 km, 75 km direct 1,400Urban air mobility Roland Berger Focus 71 nulle nulloland nullrgernull nullinnullAct publication on nullircraft nullectrical nullopulsionnull(httpsnullnullwwnullolandbergernullomnullnnullnsightsnulllobal-nullopicsnulllectric-nullopulsionnullThe above assumptions and findings were extra polated for a total of 98 metropolitan regions worldwide, each with at least two million inhabitants and high GDP per capita. Depending on their population density and surface area, these cities were assigned to one of the four urban archetypes reflected by the WHY IS NOW THE RIGHT TIME? nullhe dream of urban aviation is not a new onenull nullet as urban sprawl increases and road traffic congestion worsens, several distinct technological advances are putting the long-held dream of escaping from all this madness and tanullng to the air within our reachnullElectric propulsion will manulle enullnull cheaper than cur -rent modelsnullnullnullce the production of electric aircraft reaches maturity, the upfront cost of buying or leasing an enullnull will be lower because electric powertrains are simpler than gas turbinesnullnullttery costs too are dropping thannull to the scale afforded by automotive manufactur -ing, and running an urban air tanull on electricity is more cost-efficient than running a conventional helicopter on nullerosenenullnullectric powertrains also have lower mainte -nance costs due to their simplicity, although technical services have to be able to deal with high voltagenul
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