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On a wing and a prayer?Challenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industryJanuary 2019Management summaryAfter flying high with strong growth in the past decade, the commercial aircraft industry is altering its trajecto-ry. Production volumes will remain strong, but a lack of new programs mean that growth rates will decline. In addition, OEnull are starting to rethink their industrial systems and make-or-buy strategies. As OEnull continue to snullueenull shipset prices from sup -pliers, insource work packages or transfer them to emerging markets and limit suppliersnullbargaining pow -er, suppliers could be left with overcapacity and serious pressure on margins. nullo avoid a hard landing and im-prove their competitiveness they must invest in automa-tion, new technologies and their global footprint. nullat in turn will open up new, business-defining opportuni-ties. A survey of top enullecutives conducted for the nullnull edition of our Aerospace nullnullfence Issues nulldar indeed identified aerostructures as an area with a high poten-tial for insourcing by OEnull and for consolidation be -tween supplier firms.nulle resultant upheavals are bound to reconfigure the aerostructures industrial landscape. nulluppliers therefore must proactively shape their future to secure a nullweet spotnullin the changed market constellation.2 Roland Berger Focus Challenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industryContents1. Leaving cruising altitude .4As growth slows in the commercial aircraft industry, OEMs and aerostructure suppliers must rethink their strategies2. Turbulence ahead .6OEMs are looking to cut costs and control the market putting serious pressure on suppliers3. Riding the storm . 10Suppliers must embrace change and reinvent themselves to become indispensable4. Into the future with a flying start .13A proactive role in shaping consolidation will keep aerostructure suppliers on the winning sideCoverphoto:NealWilson/GettyImagesChallenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industry Roland Berger Focus 3The commercial aircraft industry has been flying high for some time, and order intakes are likely to stay at or around all-time highs for another couple of years. But change is com-ing and growth is slowing. OEMs and aerostructure suppliers alike must use the time to engineer a soft landing.nullew orders in the commercial aircraft industry doubled between nullnull and nullnull. nullnce then, order books have remained stable at or near to record highs, with roughly null,nullnullaircraft still in the pipeline. nullarge commercial aircraft nullnullAnull programs null including the Anullnull neo and the nulleing nullnullnull , the Anullnull and the nulloeing nullnullnullhave driven much of this growth. As of around nullnull, however, current planning figures indicate that the growth curve will flatten nullee nullgure Anull nullis assumes a production rate of null aircraft per month for single-aisle programs as well as major aircraft programs, which will either slow down production nullhe Anullnullis a case in pointnullor stop altogether nullike the nulleing nullnull. Only Airbusnullsmaller, single-aisle Anullnullnullormer null-nullriesnullis forecast to see pro -duction increase continually in the years ahead. Other than that, no major new aircraft programs are sched-uled to get off the blocks before the middle of the nenull decade. nullwever, enullisting programs could see a sub -stantial increase if the production rate null or null scenari -os materialinull for the Airbus Anullnullneo and nulleing nullnull nullnull families. Anullth large commercial aircraft constituting by far the largest segment of the civil aerostructure market nullbout null to nullnullin value terms nulln nullnullnull many tier-nullsuppliers in particular have taken good advantage of the favorable conditions in recent years. As OEnull outsourced the bulk of aerostructure production, aerostructure tier-nullsuppli -ers specifically built up capacity to accompany the ramp-up of the above nullA programs. nulley are still enjoying market growth rates of around null.nullbstantial enullansion of single-aisle programs, boosting production to null or even null aircraft per month, will keep growth from grinding to a complete halt. nullke their customers and other industry players, however, aerostructure suppliers must prepare for growth that could be as much as two thirds lower after nullnull. nullis study enullmines how aircraft OEnull themselves are re -sponding to this changing scenario, the challenges that will confront aerostructure suppliers as a result, and what the latter can and must do to engineer a soft land-ing nullor, better still, position themselves to make a flying start under changed market circumstances.STUDY METHODOLOGYThe analysis and recommendations reproduced in this paper are based on a comprehensive market and competition model developed by Roland Berger. Figures for growth in the aerostructure market (in US dollars) are based on estimates of the number of aircraft produced and aerostructure value per aircraft. Aircraft production data was derived from pro-jected fleet growth and current order backlogs. The aero-structure value per aircraft was calculated by breaking over-all aerostructure value down into individual components (such as flaps and side shells).Based on a thorough understanding of the demand and supply situation for each of the work packages, we then as-sembled the overall market model. This includes not only the status quo but also the changes in the demand and supply situation based on the sourcing strategies of OEMs, strate-gies of suppliers as well as as process, technology and ma-terial trends.This model was backed up and enhanced by the findings from more than 20 in-depth interviews conducted with key aircraft OEMs and aerostructure suppliers in Europe as well as the Americas.1. Leaving cruising altitude As growth slows in the commercial aircraft industry, OEMs and aerostructure suppliers must rethink their strategies4 Roland Berger Focus Challenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industry* Compound annual growth rate* * Components may not sum to total due to rounding CAGR*2016-2026 %1.9%2.5%20262025202420232022202120202019672018Forecast60201759201660A: The end of rapid growthDevelopment in segments of the aerostructure market, global market volume 2016-2026 USD bn*2.0%Rate 600.2%3.7%3.0%Rate 80Rate 705452525251505248241021432492142249214423820SpaceUAVBusiness JetMilitaryLarge Commercial AircraftRegional AircraftScenario single-aisle rate 70Scenario single-aisle rate 8025102125102125822259212592125921473273 448142764479447944796971737071 7171258210.5%4.8%4.1%1.7%Source: CLIENT, Research, Market reports, TEAL, Roland BergerChallenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industry Roland Berger Focus 5To cut costs, shore up the global supply chain and gain great-er control of the market, aircraft OEMs are quite happy to clip the wings of their suppliers, if need be. Aerostructure suppli-ers must thus deal with lower growth, pressure on margins and possibly a loss of business.As major nullA programs tail off and growth is project -ed to flatten as of nullnull, aircraft OEnull must naturally protect their interests and align with a changed set of market circumstances. nullme of them are less profit -able than their suppliers right now, and are under in-tense pressure from airlines to lower prices. nullo sharp-en their competitive edge and raise profitability, OEnulls are thus moving to cut both internal costs and the cost of purchasing products from the supply chain. Airbus, for enullmple, is committed to the nullopenullcampaign, while nulleingnull nullartnering for nullccess nullnull nullnull nullnull drive likewise targets cost nullnd hencenullprice reduc -tions in the companynull major nullA programs. In recent decades, the aerospace industry followed the lead given by the automotive industrynullOEnull scaled back their own vertical integration, allowing suppliers to advance from build-to-print nullnullnullto design-and-build nullnullnullwork packages. Of late, however, OEnull have enulle -rienced delivery issues with some suppliers nullffecting the Anullnull nulleing nullnull Anullnullneo and nullnull nullnullprograms, for instancenull which has also been driven by the risk-shar -ing partnership model that transferred considerable re-sponsibility from the OEnull to their supplier firms null however, the nullP model did not always deliver the benefits to the OEnulls or supplier firms as intended. Ac-cordingly, and driven by the need to cut costs and have a more balanced share of industry profit pools, they are now keen to regain more control of work packages they see as critical to aircraft performance nullpylons and na-celles, for enullmplenullor that command significant after -market business nulluch as nacelles againnull At the same time, they are looking to strengthen their bargaining po-sition and reduce dependency on outside suppliers.TO MAKE OR TO BUY?All these considerations are prompting aircraft OEnull to rethink their make-or-buy strategies and insource activ-ities that they hitherto farmed out to aerostructure sup-pliers. nullngs for the nulleing nullnullnull for enullmple, are now being produced back in-house at a brand-new, heavily automated facility. nullis trend means that future market growth will largely end up in-house with the OEnull, not in the hands of tier-nullsuppliers. 2. Turbulence ahead OEMs are looking to cut costs and control the market putting serious pressure on suppliersSource: Roland Berger Contracted shipset priceP3P2P1P0PRICE PER SHIPSET USDDELIVERED SHIPSETS #n 0 n 1 n 2 n 3B: Downward pressure Evolution of shipset prices based on the number of units delivered6 Roland Berger Focus Challenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industry* Earnings before interest and taxes Source: Roland BergerC: Fighting to remain profitableAerostructure (tier-1) EBIT* margins, 2014-2017Average EBIT margin %Highest EBIT margin %Lowest EBIT margin %2014 2015 2016 20178.14.2 4.15.816.6-0.813.4-26.215.9-28.116.1-9.8nullor those work packages that will continue to be out-sourced, OEnull are adopting a more granular approach and also enullloring the option of dual sourcing strate -gies. If the same work package is split null-null between two different suppliers, say, that again gives the OEnullgreater negotiating muscle. nullre than that, it helps them safe -guard a reliable supply chain and remain more flenullble in the event of a production ramp-up. It also forces sup-pliers to compete with each other. nullreover, developing work packages in-house and then outsourcing them on a build-to-print basis adds greater transparency, limit-ing suppliersnullpotential to realinull attractive margins.MORE THAN A SPOT OF TURBULENCE FOR SUPPLIERS: PRESSURE FROM THE OEMSnullving upscaled to accommodate the nullA production boom in recent years, aerostructure suppliers now face the very real threat of being left sitting on overcapacity in the years ahead. As programs such as the Anullnulland the nulleing nullnullnullare phased out, suppliersnulldedicated production enulluipment will be left standing idle. nullowth in the order of null is projected to decline to around null as of nullnull nulln our base scenario with single-aisle produc -tion rates at null aircraft per monthnull partly due to a slow -er increase in production rates compared to previous Challenges and opportunities in the aerostructure supplier industry Roland Berger Focus 7nullIndia and nulludi Arabia in particular nullhave launched ambitious programs to build up their own aerospace and defense industries. nulley are doing this on the basis of local content and offset obligations, as well as by en-gaging with established OEnull and supplier firms in the form of joint ventures that operate local production in these countries. nullis development puts additional pres -sure on the supplier firms due to the rise of new suppli-ers in these emerging markets. In particular, the latter are often assisted by government funds provided on fa-vorable terms to cover their investment and non-recur-ring costs. nullese newcomers thus also reap the benefits of cutting-edge enulluipment. Although many of these supplier firms are initially established within the frame-work of defense programs, they very nulluickly also prog-ress to targeting the civil aviation market.At least in the years from nullnull-nullnull, tier-nullsuppliers of aerostructures defended their margins fairly success-fully despite the pressure enullerted on them by OEnull. nulley did so by streamlining their internal cost base, enull -ploiting economies of scale as they ramped up produc-tion to keep pace with aircraft programs, but also by re-ducing the cost of materials purchased from tier-null suppliers and benefiting from favorable enullchange rate effects. Cnulle problem now is that, having already successfully reduced costs within the supply chain in the recent years of plenty, it will become increasingly difficult to make further cutbacks in the comparatively lean years ahead. nullat said, OEnullnullnow-stronger bargaining position has undermined suppliersnullability to resist outside pressure to realinull further savings. As a consenulluence, tier-nullsup -pliers have been ramping up production in low-cost countries and increasing automation. nulley have also reorganinulld their supply chain and are working with new tier-nullcompanies, e.g. in nullrocco or India. Dyears, and partly due to enullsting price reduction agree -ments for the work packages. As suppliers strive to be-come more efficient, this too will enullcerbate the prob -lem of overcapacity as they can effectively realinull the same output with less enulluipment. nulle capacity situa -tion is made even more complenullby the fact that, before growth begins to flatten, demand for capacity will spike in the short term nullfor perhaps the nenull two to four years nullon the back of a sharp increase in single-aisle aircraft production nullnullnullneo and nullnull nullnull.On top of flatter growth, OEnull too are putting the snullueenull on suppliersnullmargins. nullor aerostructure suppli -ers, OEnullnullinsourcing trend effectively reduces the sinull of the accessible market. nullal sourcing policies will likely further reduce even those work packages that th
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