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2016 Top Markets Report Financial Technology A Market Assessment Tool for U.S. Exporters U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Industry & Analysis (I&A) August 2016 Industry & Analysis (I&A) staff of industry, trade and economic analysts devise and implement international trade, investment, and export promotion strategies that strengthen the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. These initiatives unlock export, and investment opportunities for U.S. businesses by combining indepth quantitative and qualitative analysis with ITAs industry relationships. For more information, visit trade.gov/industry I&A is part of the International Trade Administration, whose mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements. Scott Schmith served as the lead author on this report. Vincent Tran and Tino Perera of the Office of Finance and Insurance Industries were co authors and major contributors. The team would like to thank Karen Ballard, Duncan Archibald, Ryan Hollowell, and Sweehoon Chia of the U.S. Commercial Service and Alex deKeyserling for their gracious support. 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary . 3 Overview and Key Findings . 5 Country Case Studies United Kingdom. 17 China . 19 Singapore . 21 Brazil . 23 Australia . 25 Addendum: Resources for U.S. Exporters . 27 Appendices Appendix 1: Methodology . 33 Appendix 2: The Global Financial Centers Index (GFCI) . . 37 Appendix 3: Citations . 38 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 2 This Page Intentionally Left Blank 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 3 Executive Summary The emergence of financial technology companies (FinTech) companies whose line of business combines software and technology to deliver financial services will reshape and improve finance by cutting costs and expanding access to financial services. FinTech companies can create a more diverse and stable credit landscape by gathering data from social-media and other sources to assess the needs of young businesses and borrowers on the fringes of the banking system. From payments to wealth management, from marketplace lending to equity crowdfunding, a new generation of startups is emerging within the FinTech sector, with firms attracting $19 billion in investment in 2015 (up from $12 billion in 2014). Goldman Sachs forecasts that over $4.7 trillion of revenue at traditional financial services companies is at risk of disruption by the new FinTech entrants. There are several factors that help explain FinTech , including technology (social networks, big data), a favorable regulatory environment and demographics (rise of the millennials) that may give FinTech options an increasing advantage over traditional financial services. 1Sectors There are four main roles that financial services companies perform in any economy: 1) facilitate payments, 2) create credit, 3) manage wealth and 4) manage risk. 2Within the FinTech sector, payment services have the highest acceptance, followed by savings and investments, insurance services and online lending. 3 Overview of Rankings and Methodology The International Trade Administration (ITA) has ranked markets by both projected FinTech payments and overall projected FinTech sector size. FinTech Payments Ranking: ITA ranks markets by consumer to business (C2B) payments for the end of 2017 by using nominal gross domestic product (GDP), consumer purchases and smartphone ownership. Figure 1 shows the 10 top payments markets (the top 30 markets are identified in the main report). (See appendices for further explanation of the methodology.) Overall FinTech Sector Potential Rankings: ITA ranks the overall projected size of the FinTech sector (payments, crowdfunding, wealth management, lending, money transfer and risk mitigation) for the end of 2017 by using nominal GDP, financial assets as a percentage of GDP and broadband access as a percentage of population. Figure 2 shows the 10 top projected FinTech sector markets (the top 30 are identified in the main report). Figure 2: Ranking of Overall Projected FinTech Markets Potential 1. Japan 3. UK 5. Germany 7. Netherlands 9. South Korea 2. China 4. France 6. Canada 8. Australia 10. Switzerland The differences between the two rankings primarily relate to overall financial development. The projected payments ranking is somewhat independent of overall financial development, which is a rough proxy for economic development, so we find that emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia, rank much higher in the payments ranking. The overall projected FinTech sector size rankings follow more closely with general economic development rather than solely market size. Figure 1: Ranking of Projected FinTech Export Markets Payments Subsector Potential (2017) 1. China 3. Germany 5. France 7. Canada 9. Australia 2. United Kingdom 4. Japan 6. Italy 8. South Korea 10. Spain 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 4 The infrastructure needed to support a vibrant FinTech sector includes telecommunications, widespread electronic payment acceptance devices, big-data-supported credit information systems, consumer education and sound and efficient regulations that support innovation and provide sufficient consumer protection. An emerging FinTech market with cities known for their strength in the financial sector is better positioned than a similar country without such financial centers. A financial center is typically home to a cluster of nationally or internationally significant financial services providers, such as banks, investment managers or stock exchanges that funnel investment towards innovation and growth. These centers are an important determiner for FinTech activity as they connect industries and activities to broader global financial networks. Product awareness and general financial literacy are important for the growth of FinTech within a market. Understanding consumer culture is also important for U.S. FinTech companies looking to enter a new international market. Government Action Regulations need to support a sound FinTech system by addressing consumer protection issues and promoting competition in the marketplace. There is also the danger of the regulatory environment becoming less favorable to FinTech companies. If regulations ease for traditional financial services companies or tighten for emerging ones, the balance of growth could change dramatically. 4The United States remains a premier destination to develop a FinTech business due to the size of its market, availability of technology and vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem. As such, U.S. fintech companies are globally competitive. The U.S. government (USG) can play a role in stimulating greater U.S. competiveness in FinTech export markets through participation in trade and investment agreements. The USG, through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or other USG technical assistance programs, could also support U.S. FinTech companies focused on smaller or less-developed markets. By working with governments, USAID facilitates the development of institutions and infrastructures to bolster many market sectors, including FinTech. Country Case Studies The country case studies provide an overview of opportunities in several important markets. The country cases of the United Kingdom, China, Singapore, Brazil and Australia represent developed, emerging, big and small markets and offer a broad perspective on the efforts of governments and private stakeholders to shape their FinTech markets. Significantly, within each of these markets are concentrated clusters of financial services companies called global financial centers. United Kingdom: A leader in government initiatives to foster the FinTech sector, the UK has a strong pro- startup environment within London, one of the most vibrant global financial centers. China: A burgeoning FinTech payment and e-commerce system, China has a few global financial centers such as Hong Kong and Shanghai. Singapore: Although a small market, Singapore is a globally important financial city with a populace that is internet savvy. Singapore is also well placed to serve as a hub for other ASEAN countries. Brazil: With the largest country and population, Brazil is the most attractive FinTech market in Latin America. It has a strong payments system that has been modernizing. Australia: This Asia-Pacific country with a Western outlook is attractive to many FinTech firms. The government supports the growth of the FinTech sector that is in a good position to compete regionally. A concentrated banking system suggests opportunities for FinTech marketplace lenders. 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 5 Overview and Key Findings Introduction The FinTech “revolution,“ or the merging of financial services with communications technology, promises to reshape finance by cutting costs and improving the quality of financial services, creating a more diverse and stable financial landscape. 5 From payments to wealth management, from peer-to-peer lending to crowdfunding, a new generation of startups is emerging, with FinTech firms attracting $19 billion in investment in 201 (up from $12 billion in 2013). A 2015 survey of over 10,000 digitally active consumers suggests that adoption rates of FinTech products could double within the next 12 months. 6Global FinTech activity has increased substantially in the last couple of years but remains significantly concentrated in the United States (see chart). Goldman Sachs forecasts that ultimately $660 billion in revenue could migrate from traditional financial services to FinTech payments, crowdfunding, wealth management and lending. 7The emergence of FinTech holds the potential for the rapid growth of well-paying jobs. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor, the median annual wage for computer and information technology occupations was $79,390 in May 2014, compared to the median annual wage for all business and financial occupations of $64,790 and $35,540 respectively. Key Findings: Top Markets and Methodology ITA ranks markets by both projected FinTech payments and overall projected FinTech sector size, as payment trends are leading indicators for the rest of the sector. Overall FinTech sector size provides useful information about general FinTech opportunities. See appendices for additional information on the methodology. Projected FinTech Payments ITA ranked markets using consumer to business (C2B) payments in 2017. C2B payments are the largest component of the FinTech sector and are the quickest to respond to industry trends. ITA used nominal GDP personal consumer purchases as a percentage of GDP (2017) to estimate C2B payments. Finally, ITA used estimated smartphone ownership as a percent of population (2017) to match C2B purchases with their potential FinTech application and rank the country markets. Figure 4 shows the 30 top projected FinTech payments markets. Projected Overall FinTech Sector The FinTech sector includes payments, crowdfunding, wealth management, lending and money transfer fees. ITA used nominal GDP (2017) as a rough measure of each market. ITA then used assets as a percentage of GDP to measure its financial development. A larger financial market should have a greater market for FinTech products. Finally, as FinTech development requires internet access, ITA Asia 6.67 North America 32.36 Middle East 0.90 Africa 0.33 Latin America 0.14 Europe 9.90 Figure 3: 5 Year FinTech investment (2010-2014) (USD billions) Source: consultancy William Garrity Associates Figure 4: Ranking of Projected Export Markets for FinTech Subsector: Payments (2017) 1. China 7. Canada 13. India 19. Sweden 25. Argentina 2. UK 8. South Korea 14. Mexico 20. Indonesia 26. Israel 3. Germany 9. Australia 15. Turkey 21. Taiwan 27. Austria 4. Japan 10. Spain 16. Switzerland 22. Poland 28. Belgium 5. France 11. Russia 17. Netherlands 23. Hong Kong 29. Denmark 6. Italy 12. Brazil 18. Saudi Arabia 24. Norway 30. South Africa 2016 ITA FinTech Top Markets Report | 6 estimated broadband use as a percentage of population (2017) to represent the portion of a e to use FinTech products. Figure 5 shows the 30 top projected FinTech sector markets. The differences between the two rankings primarily relate to overall financial development. The projected FinTech payments ranking is independent of overall financial development, which is a rough proxy for economic development. ITA finds that emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia, rank much higher in this index. The overall projected FinTech sector rankings follow more closely with general economic development rather than solely market size. Industry Overview and Competitiveness Causes for the FinTech Emergence Technology Several factors help explain FinTech e as a growth sector. The first is developments in technology, inclu
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