重塑中国城市形象：可持续城市化发展之路.pdf

ReimaginingChinas citiesTowards a sustainable urbanisationchinadialogue重塑中国城市形象可持续城市化发展之路城镇化特刊关于“中外对话”QD1=,5/R;(A-,!4C+e,A3?E DA558,9C(R2 C2*1: D1?2CZ.EEDQD1=,5/R+eDXA AR;(8E,!%CcC8! 5W *1;!131D1.Li8Q*3+e99?:+!(I/.?3/0DB.e3B/24BE*1*(I+a+eD1./20CDAbout chinadialoguechinadialogue is an independent, not-for-profit organisation based in London, Beijing and Delhi.Alongside a bi-monthly journal, chinadialogues primary vehicle is our website (chinadialogue), a unique bilingual platform which promotes a global understanding of the environmental impact of Chinas rise by publishing informed articles, commentaries and analysis by writers from inside and outside of China. We aim to inform, educate, and contribute to building a global consensus on fair and workable solutions. chinadialogue also organises annual press awards, in conjunction with the Guardian, SEE Foundation and Sina to recognise environmental journalists who have made outstanding contributions to the field in China.支持机构 QD1=,5/R)C/3);1R?6 +eD)DJournal PartnersThis journal was supported by E3G, Stiftung Mercator, Germanwatch and the Low Carbon Future Cities Project.伦敦办公室：总 编： 伊莎贝尔希尔顿副 总 编： 奥莉维亚博伊德执行编辑： 汤姆莱维特 山姆吉尔营运经理： 黄露珊发展经理： 杰西卡雅各布 助理编辑：尼克霍史达克文化编辑： 贝丝沃尔克北京办公室: 北京总编辑： 刘鉴强北京副总编： 徐 楠编 辑： 萧潇 周维运营主任： 张迎迎助理编辑： 张 春记 者： 林 娜London Office:Editor: Isabel Hilton Deputy Editor: Olivia Boyd Managing Editor: Tom Levitt Executive Editor: Sam GeallProduction Editor: Huang LushanDevelopment Manager: Jessica Jacoby Assistant Editor: Nick HoldstockCulture Editor: Beth WalkerBeijing Office: Deputy Editor: Liu JianqiangMananging Editor: Xu NanAssociate Editor: Xiao Xiao, Zhou WeiDevelopment Manager: Zhang Yingying Assistant Editor: Zhang Chun Reporter: Luna Lin联系我们有关供稿请联系：ideaschinadialogue (English)ideaschinadialogue（中文）有关在经济上支持中外对话请联系：supportchinadialogue有关咨询中外对话实习或者工作信息请联系：lushan.huangchinadialogue 有关咨询加入中外对话志愿者翻译员请联系：volunteerchinadialogueContact usFor editorial submissions, please contact: ideaschinadialogue (English)ideaschinadialogue（中文）For information on how you can support chinadialogue financially, please contact:supportchinadialogueTo enquire about internships or jobs at chinadialogue, please contact: lushan.huangchinadialogue To enquire about joining chinadialogues network of volunteer user-comment translators, please contact:volunteerchinadialogue我们的团队Our Team中国城市困局 A“:P(U,E,:中外对话总编 在经历了近20年的高速城镇化之后，中国城镇的正式和非正式居民总数一举超越了农村人口数量。过去30年中，超过4亿人迁入城市，2011年城镇人口占总人口比重首次超过50%。如今超过52%的人口居住在城市，到2025年这一比例预计将达到70%，这也就意味着接下来的12年城镇将迎来2.5亿新增人口。中国的城镇化是人类历史上规模最大、发展最快的社会运动，它给中国社会带来了翻天覆地的变化，也给中国的政策制定者们带来了诸多的挑战，由此产生的许多问题都与资金有关。户口是当前中国面临的历史遗留问题之一，这个人手一份的身份证明决定了中国人的居住地。在毛泽东时代，户籍制度使得农民被土地绑住腿脚。然而，过去几十年中，大量农村人口涌入城市寻找工作机会，工程建设红火时期尤甚。但这些没有城市户口的农民成了弱势群体，虽然可以在城市工作，却不能享受与城里人同等的医疗、教育等福利。户籍制度以极低的附加成本为城市带来了廉价的劳动力，但也被普遍认为不公平，需要改革。现行户籍制度下，农民工的生活充满不确定性，因此往往不得不撇下父母子女，只身进城赚取高于农业收成的收入。如果希望下一代城市居民成为新的消费者，带动中国经济挺进下一阶段的发展，那么他们就应当享受同等的权益。问题是，谁来推动这一改革？中国大多数的地方城镇税收不足，几十年来财政主要依靠征用农业土地用作工业、商业和住宅的开发。这让许多地方政府背上了沉重的债务负担，想要进一步推进城镇化，地方政府的财政制度就必须进行改革。现行财政制度的问题不止于此：它吞噬良田建起城市，与此同时，城镇的扩张加剧了居民对私家车和公共交通的依赖，上班族不得不长途通勤，进而导致碳排量的攀升，并带来了令人窒息的空气污染和严重的交通拥堵等一系列问题。城市必要的基础设施建设则不时被忽略，例如许多大城市在排水系统等方面仍存有隐患，令其无力应对未来的扩张和气候变化所带来的不确定性。面对2025年恐将新增的2.5亿城镇人口，在接下来的10年里，中国要建造怎样的城市来容纳这些新城市人？新建10个2500万人的城市，3个7000万人的大城市，还是100个250万人的小城市？这些新城市人将过着怎样的生活？他们将以何为生？他们每天要通勤多长的距离？他们能否住进高能效的房子？他们能否享受到城市生活所需的充足水源？他们产生的垃圾又能否得到回收利用？中国未来城市的设计将不仅影响到中国城镇居民的健康和福利，还将影响到中国对不断 飙 升的碳排放的控制，这对中国人民乃至世界人民都有着重要的意义。中国如果要成为“十二五”规划中描述的那个可持续发展的国家，决策者们就应该更多地学习哥本哈根这样先进城市的经验，而不是效仿洛杉 矶 那种已经过时了的样板。如果中国真的实现了城镇化目标，12年后的中国将是一个完全不同的社会。历史上任何一个社会的变革都产生了巨大的影响，中国城镇化将是一场长期的社会和经济转型。过去5年中，中国的城镇中产阶级开始越来越积极地发出他们的声音。他们希望自己的产权得到保护，希望自己的孩子能在一个压力更小、环境更好的社会中成长。他们要求清洁的空气和安全的水源，要求免受有毒化工厂的侵害。这些诉求已经超越了某个特定议题的本身，他们抱怨政府的不作为、透明度的缺失，他们要求在那些影响他们生活的决策和规划中发挥更大的作用。李克强总理将城镇化摆在中国经济和社会发展、以及建立可持续小康社会的核心地位。随着中国经济增速放缓，中产阶级城市居民将向拥有更高价值的工作岗位转移并成为推动经济发展的消费者，他们也会要求享受更高质量的生活。中国规划者今天的决策，将决定这些美好的愿景能否得以实现。Isabel Hilton Editor, chinadialogue Chinas urban dilemmaAfter nearly three decades of rapid urbanisation, Chinas official and unofficial city dwellers outnumber its farmers. More than 400 million people have already moved into cities in the past thirty years; and in 2011 China crossed the threshold of a predominantly urban society. Today more than 52% of Chinese citizens live in cities, and by 2025 the government wants that figure to be 70%. To achieve this up to 250 million people will have to move in the next 12 years.Chinas urbanisation counts as the biggest and fastest social movement in human history, a movement that has turned Chinese society on its head and raises many difficult questions for policy makers. Many of these questions revolve around money. One legacy of earlier times in China is the hukou, a permit held by every Chinese citizen that determines where he or she is domiciled. In Mao Zedongs time, the hukou tied farmers to the land. In recent decades those farmers have migrated to Chinas cities, seeking work, many of them in the construction boom. But with no right of abode they are locked into the status of a disadvantaged underclass, allowed to work in cities but not to enjoy the right of residence that would give them and their families access to health or education.This system gives the cities the benefit of cheap labour with few of the associated costs, but it is widely recognised as unfair and in urgent need of reform. It makes for a precarious life for migrant workers, who often leave parents and children behind while they work in town for the higher cash wages that farming denies them. If Chinas new city dwellers are to become the consuming middle classes that China wants in its next stage of development, they will need the same privileges as existing urbanites, but who will pay? Most of Chinas local towns and cities have too little in the way of tax revenue and have financed themselves in recent decades by requisitioning agricultural land for development into industrial, residential or commercial buildings. This has left a worrying debt overhang for many local authorities, and further urbanisation will demand reform of local government finance. This model of financing has created other problems: it has swallowed up precious farmland and created sprawling cities whose inhabitants depend on cars and buses to get around. This means long commutes for workers and rapidly climbing carbon emissions, as well as the choking pollution and congestion that bedevils many Chinese cities. Essential urban infrastructure has sometimes been neglected and many of Chinas major cities lack such basics as adequate sewerage systems, that will cope with future expansion and the uncertainties of climate change. What kind of cities will China build in the next decade to house the further 250 million city dwellers planned for 2025? Will that be ten new cities of 25 million inhabitants? Three new mega-cities of 70 million? Or 100 smaller cities of 2.5 million? How will these people live? How will they earn their living? How far will they commute each day? Will they live in energy efficient buildings? Will their new homes have enough water to cope with urban life and will the waste they generate be recycled?The design of Chinas future cities will not only affect the health and well-being of their residents; it will also be an important factor in the battle to contain Chinas soaring carbon emissions. These questions, therefore, are of high importance to all of humanity. If China is to become the sustainable society envisaged in the 12th Five Year Plan, it would be wise to look for models in such cities as Copenhagen, rather than such outdated models as Los Angeles. If China does reach its urbanisation target, it will be a very different society in just 12 years. Few societies have undergone such rapid upheaval without consequences and the impacts in China will extend beyond the short-term social and economic shifts. In the past five years Chinas urban middle classes have become vocal in defence of their property interests and in their desire for a less stressful, less polluted environment in which to bring up their children. Their demands for clean air, safe water and protection against noxious chemical plants have spilled over into complaints about lack of accountability and transparency in government. They are insisting on a greater role in the decision making and the planning that affects their lives. Prime minister Li Keqiang has put urbanisation at the heart of Chinas economic and social agenda as the country aims to become a modestly prosperous, more sustainable society. As China slows down its breakneck pace of growth, middle class city dwellers will move into higher value occupations and become consumers. They will also demand a better quality of life. The decisions that Chinas planners make today will determine whether those hopes are fulfilled.ReimaginingChinas citiesTowards a sustainable urbanisation重塑中国城市形象可持续城市化发展之路目 录CONTENTS城市之梦 Key issues9.中国城市化30年：得大于失 徐楠11.Three decades of urbanisation in China Xu Nan13.中国户籍制度改革：一张路线图 陈金永 16.How to reform Chinas hukou system Kam Wing Chan19.应对城市盲目扩张 良好的财政体系必不可缺 谭晓梅20.Chinas urban sprawl needs fiscal reform Tan Xiaomei21.外来务工者的都市生活 林娜23.Chinese migrants struggle to find urban dream Luna Lin城市之困 Cities under pressure26.廉价房短缺 中国梦难圆 黄友琴29.Lack of affordable housing threatens urban dream Huang Youqin32.中国城市水患治理的前景预期 程晓陶34.Chinese cities decades behind on flood risk Cheng Xiaotao36.中国城市：应对气候变化为GDP让路 李秉勤38.Chinas cities focused on GDP not adaptation Li Bingqin40.中国“鬼城”忧虑几何 汤姆米勒42.Time for a reality check on ghost towns Tom Miller44.中国新兴中产阶级的环保诉求 汤姆约翰逊46.Chinas emerging urban middle class Tom Johnson48.新加坡治水对中国的启示 塞西莉亚托塔哈达 阿希特彼斯瓦斯50.Water consumption and cities Cecilia Tortajada Asit K. Biswas52.中国人正在丧失街巷和社区生活 汤姆莱维特55.Chinese cities feel loss of streetlife and community Tom Levitt中国与世界,环境危机大家谈China and the world discuss the environment城市之光 Reimagining the city59.城市发展必须牺牲环境吗？ 薛瑾61.Does city growth have to sacrifice the environment? Xue Jin63.智能手机能否有助于解决中国道路拥堵？ 诺林卡比尔等 65.How smartphones could clear Chinas congestion Naureen Kabir67.北京顺风车 谢良兵69.Citizen-led carpooling takes on Beijings traffic Xie Liangbing71.城市“轨道化”能解决拥堵问题吗？ 叶静宇 73.Are urban rail projects a solution to congestion? Ye Jingyu74.斯德哥尔摩可持续发展背后的故事 安娜霍特等76.The story of sustainable Stockholm Anna Hult 79.生态城以人为本，还是以技术为本？ 鲍存彪 梁俊忠81.Eco-cities in China: an analysis Pow Choon Piew Harvey Neo83.上海塔：世界第一座生态友好摩天楼？ 尼科拉戴维森85.The worlds first eco-skyscraper? Nicola Davison 87.转型城镇：小镇上的全球性运动 玛蒂尔达李89.Transition towns: the local movement Matilda Lee91.城市治理模式能拯救全球气候变化吗？ 亨利基平95.Can cities save us from climate change? Henry Kippin99.弹性城市的发展前景美国案例研究 塞布丽娜舒尔茨 迈克尔斯泰温斯101.The resilient city of the future Sabrina Schulz Michael Stevns103.无锡杜塞尔多夫：绿色城市新伙伴 奥莉维亚博伊德106.Wuxi-Dsseldorf: green city partnerships Olivia Boyd109.德国：能源供应大转型 德克罗姆尼110.Germanys radical energy plans Dirk Rommeney -KEY ISSUES-城市之梦