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WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS This Year Next Year JUNE 2019WHAT DOES OUR FORECAST MEAN FOR MARKETERS? . . . . . 5 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 AUSTRALIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 BRAZIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 CANADA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 CHINA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 GERMANY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 INDIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 UNITED KINGDOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 UNITED STATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 CONTENTSGroupM 3 World Trade Center 175 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 USA FOR THE FULL 70-COUNTRY FORECAST AND APPENDIX : ALL WPP EMPLOYEES: link to inside.wpp/marketing GROUPM CLIENTS: please speak with your client account director for the full data file or contact Brian Wieser (brian.wiesergroupm) EVERYONE ELSE: contact Brian Wieser (brian.wiesergroupm) WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS JUNE 2019 This Year Next Year All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data is as up-to-date only to the extent that its availability, compilation and printed schedules will allow and is subject to change.5 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 What does our forecast mean for marketers? Where media spending growth outpaces growth in ad inventory and produces inflationary conditions for like-for-like inventory, brand-focused marketers must continually evolve their tactics to optimize campaigns. For example, the timing of flights, the balance of resources allocated to data, consumer insights, creative content and media buys, and the relative utility of specific media owners must all be managed for greater efficiency. Marketers should continually look to develop alternative approaches to their communications efforts, so they have the credible ability to walk away from less desirable choices. 1 Where media spending growth is tepid or worse brand and performance marketers alike may still find valuable opportunities to use a medium, so long as the potential for campaign reach against target audiences is still relatively substantial. In these situations where spending grows slowly (or declines faster) than consumption, opportunities to secure improved overall terms, presence and efficiency are likely to be produced. 2 Where territories economic growth is stronger than advertising growth, those markets may offer disproportionate benefits for shifts of ad budgets from global companies across countries. Using the IMFs expectations for economic growth and our own for advertising growth, in 2020, the widest gaps of this nature among the worlds 20 largest economies are found in Argentina, Switzerland, Italy, China and the Netherlands. Where economic growth is weaker than advertising growth, and unless there are meaningful changes in trends in media consumption or ad inventory management, those countries may be relatively less effective places to spend. The widest gaps of this nature among the top-20 markets include the UK, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia and Spain. 3THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 6 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 Introduction Growth with Fragile Foundations in 2019. On its face, the global economy appears to be healthy and growing. However, it would be equally apt to use the words the OECD chose in its May 2019 report characterizing conditions as “fragile,” warning that, “trade and policy uncertainties could significantly damage the world economy and further contribute to the growing divide between people.” Escalating trade tensions especially between the United States and China, but also among the US and other parts of the world, and disruptions in Europe depending on how Brexit plays out along with broader and sometimes overlapping geopolitical disputes have weakened the foundations of a global economy built on trade. Other factors supporting growth may also be temporary, such as increases in consumer and corporate spending associated with changes in tax policies if those policies do not lead to an improvement in long-term economic efficiency. At the same time, narrow distributions of economic gains within societies represent additional potential sources of long- term risk, at least relative to something broader in its nature. We can see the global advertising industry in a similar light, with emerging signs of deceleration. While global advertising trends reported on a headline basis are forecast to grow by +3.4% in 2019 (down from +6.9% in 2018), this result is heavily skewed by US political advertising, which by itself accounted for 1.5% of the worlds advertising total last year and will represent more with every passing election cycle. If we removed our estimates for this category in the US alone (the only market where the category meaningfully distorts growth rates), our reported 6.9% growth rate for 2018 would look more like +5.6%. 2019 would be +4.6% excluding US political advertising rather than the +3.4% headline figure. Notably, all of these growth figures would be lower than if a broader definition of media were used (including direct mail and directories, for example). Slight Global Acceleration into 2020. Aggregating expectations from around the world, our rolled-up forecast does look more favorable for 2020 with ex-US political growth of +4.7%, or +6.0% including it. While some large markets such as the US should decelerate slightly, more than half of the territories we track will post better growth than vs. 2019, and median growth will rise from +3.3% in 2019 to +3.8% in 2020. Some of the underlying improvement in 2020 is not directly associated with the economy and is instead due to the Olympics and World Cup, which can skew results in many countries around the world. Inflation, expected to fall a range of between 3% and 4% globally is also supporting this outcome, although it is not anticipated to be meaningfully different vs. 2019 or 2018. China, Brazil, India and the UK Look Particularly Resilient. At a country level, outside of the US, China, Japan, India, the UK and Brazil collectively account for well over half of global growth in each of 2019 and 2020, and so deserve some focus here. China, which represents one-sixth of global advertising, is also notable among the faster-growing countries because its absolute gain is once again so large. Growth in 2020 is expected to be +5.6% vs. 2019 which should be more like +5.2% a slowdown from pre-2018 levels, but still rapid vs. most other global markets. Brazil, now neck-and-neck with Germany for its standing as the worlds fifth-largest advertising market, stands out the most for its reversal from a -0.9% decline in 2019 to a +6.1% gain in 2020, in part aided by a rebound on easy comparables, given conservative expectations this year and mid-single-digit inflation, despite mixed conditions for its overall economy. India is not forecast to be bothered by global challenges, although as with elsewhere, downside risks remain. Still, the country should still see double-digit growth in 2019 (+14%) and 2020 (+13%), allowing it to surpass Australia and Canada in size by next year as the worlds eighth-largest ad market. As for the UK, growth THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 7 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f North America 173,095 174,427 181,175 185,976 200,218 208,845 228,290 234,668 253,742 YOY% 3.8 0.8 3.9 2.6 7.7 4.3 9.3 2.8 8.1 Latin America 19,852 23,308 24,842 26,304 24,187 25,431 28,429 28,389 30,012 YOY% 7.2 17.4 6.6 5.9 -8.0 5.1 11.8 -0.1 5.7 Western Europe 89,124 87,874 90,282 92,511 95,819 99,853 103,682 106,874 109,815 YOY% -2.9 -1.4 2.7 2.5 3.6 4.2 3.8 3.1 2.8 Central and ultimately, is more immune to competition from the worlds digital giants, at least without significant incremental investment on their parts. Outdoor advertising, 6.4% of the worlds total this year, is somewhat compressed in 2019 with very little overall growth, but this is primarily because of the difficult comparable produced by US political advertising during 2018; growth should rebound in 2020, in part because of a return of US political. In Asia which now accounts for nearly half of the mediums global total, including its #2, #3 and #4 markets in China, Japan and South Korea similarly low underlying growth is anticipated there as well. We see similar expectations for the biggest European markets, the UK and Germany, and median growth of slightly more than +3% in both of 2019 and 2020 for the medium in countries around the world. Radio is slightly smaller with closer to 5.3% global share and slightly weaker growth trends a decline of -2.2% in 2019 and a gain of +0.5% in 2020 although US political advertising distorts this number as well. Median growth for countries around the world is expected to be +1% in both years.
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