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Commissioned by THE 2019 INFRASCOPE Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean 1 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Contents 2 About this report 3 About The EIU 3 About the IDB 4 Acknowledgements 5 Infrascope categories and indicators 6 Introduction 8 Executive summary 10 Key findings 24 Country summaries 47 Appendix I: Project background 51 Appendix II: Methodology, sources and detailed indicator definitions 66 Appendix III: Glossary 68 Bibliography2 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 This document is the sixth edition of an informational tool and benchmarking index that assesses the capacity of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean to carry out sustainable public-private partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure. The first study was developed in 2009 and updated in 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2017. In 2017, we updated the methodology, reflected in the 2017 report and the latest 2019 report. The analysis and content of this index cover the period from December 2018 to February 2019. The index was built by The Economist Intelligence Unit and is supported financially by the Inter- American Development Bank (IDB). The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of The Economist Intelligence Unit and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the IDB. The complete index, as well as detailed country analyses, can be viewed on the following website: infrascope.eiu Please use the following when citing this report: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2019. Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 2019 Infrascope. EIU, New York, NY. For further information, please contact: The Economist Intelligence Unit Leo Abruzzese, Project Director: leoabruzzeseeiu Atefa Shah, Project Manager: atefashaheiu Anil Sarda, Project Manager: anilsardaeiu Saksham Kotiya: Project Analyst: sakshamkotiyaeiu Jennifer Wells, Marketing Executive: jenniferwellseiu /+44(2)7 576 8224 Inter-American Development Bank Gastn Astesiano, Public-Private Partnerships Team Leader: gastonaiadb Ancor Surez Alemn, Public-Private Partnerships Specialist. Infrascope IDB Project Manager: ancorsiadb Carolina Lembo, Public-Private Partnership Specialist: clemboiadb Marcos Siquiera, Public-Private Partnership Sr. Specialist: msiqueiraiadb Daniel Vieitez, Public-Private Partnership Sr. Specialist: dvieiteziadb Daniel Cabrera, Project Assistant: danielcaiadb About this report3 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 About The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is the research arm of The Economist Group, publisher of The Economist. As the worlds leading provider of country intelligence, we help governments, institutions and businesses by providing timely, reliable and impartial analysis of economic and development strategies. Through our public policy practice, The Economist Intelligence Unit provides evidence-based research for policymakers and stakeholders seeking measurable outcomes in fields ranging from gender and finance to energy and technology. We conduct research through interviews, regulatory analysis, quantitative modelling and forecasting, and display the results via interactive data visualisation tools. Through a global network of more than 350 analysts and contributors, The Economist Intelligence Unit continuously assesses and forecasts political, economic and business conditions in more than 200 countries. For more information, visit eiu. About the Inter-American Development Bank The Inter-American Development Banks (IDB) mission is to improve lives. Founded in 1959, the IDB is one of the main sources of long-term financing for economic, social and institutional development in Latin America and the Caribbean. The IDB also conducts cutting-edge research projects and provides policy advice, technical assistance and training to public and private clients throughout the region. The IDB PPP Team catalyzes the specialized capacity of IDB Group in PPP Projects. The Team comprises specialists in regulatory and institutional framework, project evaluation, and structuring of PPP contracts. Its main goals are: (i) mobilize private and public resources for PPP projects; (ii) design personalized financial and advisory services products for public and private clients; (iii) develop lessons learned and knowledge products; (iv) respond to the growing demand for PPP in Latin America and the Caribbean. The Team is also responsible for the development of regulatory frameworks, and institutional capacity for the implementation of PPP projects, to support their preparation, and the generation and dissemination of PPPs best practices. For more information, visit iadb.4 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Acknowledgements The following researchers, country analysts and specialists contributed to this report. We thank them for their participation. Country analysis: Renata Diniz, Fernando Freijedo, Tamar Koosed, Vianna Maino, Susana Martinez, Felice Meoli, Denis Pavon, Bryn Philibert, Claudia Pompa, David Ramirez, Ancor Surez-Alemn, Francisco Javier Trevio Moreno, Kimberly Waithe, Nick Wolf, and Allan Wright. Model and report production: Mike Kenny, Emma Ruckley, Anil Sarda, Atefa Shah, Will Shallcross and Nick Wolf. Experts interviewed: As part of the research process for this project, we conducted approximately 70 in-depth interviews with policymakers and country infrastructure experts from multilateral and consulting institutions and the private sector. We would like to express our thanks to all the infrastructure and country experts for their advice and input. A list of the experts interviewed can be found in the Bibliography.5 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Infrascope categories and indicators The Infrascope index consists of 23 indicators and 78 sub-indicators, both qualitative and quantitative in nature. Data for the quantitative indicators is drawn from The Economist Intelligence Unit and from the World Bank Public Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Database. The qualitative data comes from a range of primary sources (legal texts, government websites, press reports and interviews) and industry reports. The five categories and 23 indicators of the index are listed below. Appendix II provides detailed definitions and the complete list of sub- indicators.1 Regulations 1.1 Conducive regulatory environment 1.2 PPP selection criteria 1.3 Fairness/openness of bids and contract changes 1.4 Conciliation schemes 1.5 Regulators risk-allocation record 1.6 Co-ordination among government entities 1.7 Renegotiations 1.8 Sustainability 2 Institutions 2.1 PPP institutional framework 2.2 Stability of PPP dedicated agency 2.3 Project preparation facilities 2.4 Transparency and accountability 3 Maturity 3.1 Experience with infrastructure PPP contracts 3.2 Expropriation risk 3.3 Contract termination 4 Investment and business climate 4.1 Political effectiveness 4.2 Business environment 4.3 Political will 4.4 Competition environment in the local industry 5 Financing 5.1 Government payment risk 5.2 Capital market for private infrastructure finance 5.3 Institutional investors and insurance market 5.4 Currency risk6 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Introduction The environment for public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Latin America and the Caribbean has evolved over the past ten years as PPPs have become more commonplace in the region, and as countries have created, tested and improved the regulations, institutions and conditions that enable successful partnerships between public and private sectors. Fourteen of the 21 countries included in the 2019 Infrascope have developed markets for carrying out PPPsan increase from 11 in 2017, and five in 2014. In 2009, the first Infrascope reported that only one country in the region had all the necessary institutions to adequately design and oversee concessions at the federal level. After a decade of progress, 16 countries have created dedicated agencies that promote PPPs, provide technical support and supervise private participation in infrastructure; and every country in the index demonstrates some level of political support for private investment in infrastructure development. The Infrascope has changed since the first edition was published in 2009, reflecting evolving practices, growing regional capacities and increased interest in PPPs. PPPs are now a much larger part of the discourse in Latin America and the Caribbean, compared to ten or 15 years ago, as countries plan and implement PPPs in sectors ranging from the traditional (transport, energy and water) to the innovative (government offices, healthcare, sports and justice). Reflecting this growing interest, the 2019 Infrascope features two new countries, Bahamas and Barbados. The Infrascope has taken this progress into consideration, adding indicators to measure alternative financing mechanisms, interinstitutional co-ordination, environmental and social sustainability, and transparency and accountability. These additional indicators have revealed both successes and areas for improvement. For example, the 2017 Infrascope highlighted how corruption scandals in several countries were affecting perceptions of PPPs and resulting in cancelled projects, noting that this could catalyse increased transparency and accountability. The 2019 Infrascope documents both improvement and regression in this area. While the average regional score for the transparency and accountability indicator has increased, the number of countries regularly sharing reports on the progress of PPPs online has fallen (from nine in 2017 to seven in 2019). However, the number of countries that have an agency tasked with evaluating the performance of PPP contracts has increased since 2017 (from 11 to 16). In 2017, the Infrascope introduced a number of new measures of sustainability for PPPs. The 2019 Infrascope provides the first opportunity to examine how countries have progressed on these indicators and demonstrates some examples of integration between PPPs and countries broader sustainability policies. Ten of the 21 countries now incorporate social inclusion goals into PPP identification, selection and development, up from seven in 2017. Four countriesChile, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvadordo the same for gender goals, while more than one-third of countries include their climate change commitments in PPP planning. Although scores and performance vary across the region, interest in mobilising private capital for infrastructure development has taken a decidedly upward track. Countries such as Ecuador, Nicaragua, Argentina and El Salvador have expressed renewed interest in 7 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 and commitment to increasing opportunities for PPPs, as well as testing recently created frameworks. These commitments are important because the regions infrastructure needs have not abated. In 2017, Latin America and the Caribbean invested less in infrastructure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) than any other region except Sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade, average investment in infrastructure in the region reached 3.5 percent of regional GDP 1 , and it is agreed that the region needs an infrastructure upgrade to close the gap. 2In late 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned governments in the region that “policies should be geared toward safeguarding much-needed spending on education and infrastructure”. 3PPPs have long been held up as one solution to the challenge of inadequate spending on infrastructure. However, PPPs can also potentially drive higher efficiency in 1 Serebrisky, T., Surez-Alemn, A., Pastor, C. and Wohlhueter, A., 2018. Lifting the Veil on Infrastructure Investment Data in Latin America and the Caribbean (No. IDB-TN-1366). Inter-American Development Bank. 2 The Economist. 2018. “Latin America needs an infrastructure upgrade”. economist/the-americas/2018/03/10/latin-america-needs-an- infrastructure-upgrade. 3 IMF. 2018. “Regional economic outlook. Western hemisphere: An uneven recovery”. imf/media/Files/Publications/REO/WHD/2018/ October/wreo1018.ashx?la=en. infrastructure projects. 4The 2019 Infrascope collects and presents data on how countries are approaching all of the potential impacts of private investment in infrastructure and provides an opportunity for investors and policymakers to gauge their progress. At the same time, the Infrascope asks questions designed to highlight the risks that appropriate implementation of PPPs must address, including fiscal pressure, public backlash, adequate risk distribution among partners, durability of political support, and regulatory and institutional maturity. As the use of PPPs continues to grow in Latin America and the Caribbean, governments across the region share the challenge of ensuring that they are prepared to maximise the positive impacts and minimise the risks of these investments. The Infrascope is one more tool that governments and private partners can use to build successful partnerships and achieve these goals. 4 Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Inter-American Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and World Bank. 2016. The APMG PPP Certification Guide.8 The 2019 Infrascope Evaluating the environment for public-private partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Executive summary Latin American and Caribbean countries perform strongly on the Regulations domain, with PPPs almost universally accepted as a procurement tool, widespread adoption of national infrastructure plans, and improvement on sustainability indicators. The regulatory framework in 17 of 21 countries in the 2019 Infrascope qualifi
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