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3651357836593836513578365938365135783659383651 3578365938365135783659383651357836593848975296 8462762467863853275680178237859365879632845673 4853846589346574785637865387465487365783468347 6587465875687346583756385698376583756783265823 5683474658376583657346587346384648373683747348 5384658934657478563786538746548736578346834765 8746587568734658375638569837658375678326582356 8347465837658365734658734638464837368383265823 5683474658376583657346587346384648373683747348 3265823568347465837658365734658734638464837368 3747348326582356834746583765836573465873463846 4837368374734832658235683474658376583657346587 3463846483736837473483265823568347465837658365 7346587346384648373683747348326582356834746583 7658365734658734638464837368374734832658235683 4746583765836573465873463846483736837473483265 8235683474658376583657346587346384648373683747 3483265823568347465837658365734658734638464837 3683747348326582356834746583765836573465873463 8464837368374734832658235683474658376583657346 5873463846483736837473474658376583657346587346 3846483736837473483265823568 MARKETING MIX MODELING Isolating the Effects of Media-Based Public Relations on Sales by Mark Weiner, CEO of PRIME Research with contributions from Liney Arnorsdottir, Rainer Lang, Brian G. Smith3651357836593836513578365938365135783659383651 3578365938365135783659383651357836593848975296 8462762467863853275680178237859365879632845673 4853846589346574785637865387465487365783468347 6587465875687346583756385698376583756783265823 About the Institute: The Institute for Public Relations is an independent nonprofit foundation dedicated to the science beneath the art of public relations. The organization focuses on research that provides timely insights and applied intelligence for professionals to put to immediate use. Contributing Research Areas and Commissions include the IPR Measurement Commission, the Coalition for Public Relations Research Standards, the Commission on Organizational Communication and the IPR Social Media Research Center. About PRIME: Combining talent, tools and technology, PRIME Research delivers award-winning global strategic communications monitoring, measurement, evaluation and analysis across social, digital and traditional media channels; sophisticated ROI statistical modeling; research-based PR consulting; and real-time/fully-integrated advanced analytics. With offices in North and South America, Europe and Asia, PRIMEs team of 500 consultants and analysts gather, filter, translate and report on media trends across 63 countries. Established in 1987 in Mainz, Germany by Dr. Rainer Matheswho continues to lead the companyPRIMEs client experience spans all of the Fortune categories, plus government agencies, NGOs and non-profits. PRIME combines the speed and consistency of real-time technology with the accuracy, actionable insights and strategic guidance available only through human expertise. Based on real-time media trends across all forms of media, PRIME makes a simple promise to deliver a comprehensive and customizable approach to enable better communications and business decisions the science beneath the art of public relations 36513578365938365135783659383651357836593836513578 3659383651357836593836513578365938489752968462762 4678638532756801782378593658796328456734853846589 34657478563786538746548736578346834765874658756873 46583756385698376583756783265823568347465837658365 73465873463846483736837473485384658934657478563786 53874654873657834683476587465875687346583756385698 37658375678326582356834746583765836573465873463846 48373683832658235683474658376583657346587346384648 37368374734832658235683474658376583657346587346384 Marketing Mix Modeling: Isolating the Effects of Media-Based Public Relations on Sales Preface Introduction Presenting Marketing Mix Modeling What is a Marketing Mix Model? Public Relations and Marketing Mix Modeling Marketing Mix Modeling: A Step-by-Step Guide Challenges and Limitations Case Studies A New Case Study: Center Parcs Europe Group Conclusion About the Authors 04 05 06 07 08 10 12 13 14 18 19 TABLE OF CONTENTS by Mark Weiner, CEO of PRIME Research with contributions from Liney Arnorsdottir, Rainer Lang, Brian G. Smith4 “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted. The trouble is, I dont know which half,” goes the adage attributed both to John Wanamaker, the turn-of-the century U.S. retailer, and Lord Leverhulme, the British industrialist and founder of Lever Brothers. Though they referred to “advertising,” Wanamaker and Leverhulme might just as easily substituted the terms “public relations,” “promotions” or any other form of marketing communication. From the time they made their statements until relatively recently, it was impossible to determine how or even if each contributed to overall marketing success. Todays marketers, with the benefit of advanced mathematical methods along with new technologies for data-collection, data-warehousing and data-mining, are unraveling marketings mysteries to answer fundamental questions about business performance and sales. The discipline through which these answers are derived is known as “marketing mix modeling,” a technique that uses advanced statistical analysis to provide quantitative answers to marketing questions. This paper defines marketing mix modeling, shares approaches for incorporating public relations results into the model primarily through media content analysis and provides a recent case study. While marketing mix modeling has become more common and more reliable in the past decade, relatively few cases integrate public relations. Among those few cases which do integrate public relations results, even fewer are available for public dissemination. We are fortunate in this paper to share a case study which reveals both the company and the brand. Before entering into our discussion of marketing mix modeling and public relations, the authors would like to put marketing mix modeling, as outlined in this paper, into the broader framework of public relations practice. First, we recognize that media relations is only one aspect of the professional scope of public relations. For the purposes of this paper, references to “public relations” refer to “media- centric public relations.” Second, while public relations often resides within marketing organizations, the authors acknowledge that public relations serves many purposes beyond marketing. Third, while the paper seeks to explore how marketing public relations activities drive sales specifically, the modeling techniques presented here apply just as well to other business outcomes including membership drives, sponsorships, donations, enrollment, employee loyalty, and many other important measures of organizational performance. Consistent with results found in other published accounts of marketing mix modeling that feature The Miller Brewing Company, AT Bruce Jeffries-Fox and Mark Weiner, “Understanding how news coverage and advertising impact consumer perception and attitudes at ATT, ” Public Relations Tactics, August, 1999;” Michael Bush, “How P&G measures up, ” PR Week, March 27, 2006. PREFACE: “Which 5 The easiest and most direct way to examine the connection between public relations and sales occurs in isolated situations where public relations is the sole form of marketing communication. Simply stated, when no competing marketing communication activity exists except public relations, one may reasonably infer that PR drives incremental sales. For example, when a well-known New Jersey food brand celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of its pioneering brand of frozen dinner entrees, it did so with just a modest media relations campaign but neither advertising nor promotions. Within the anniversary month, there was a 40 percent sales boost in the overall frozen entree category and an even greater increase for the anniversary- celebrating brand. Because the media relations activity was the only marketing communication employed to support this campaign, the brand felt comfortable attributing the incremental sales to the PR campaign. The case was made using a simple cross-tabulation of stories generated and sales during the corresponding months. While this example does not quantify causation or correlation, the marketing investment decision-makers were comfortable with the assumption which - for them - demonstrated a positive relationship between PR and sales. Scientifically proven approaches to proving PR effectiveness - especially quantifying the impact of PR expenditure on business outcomes - have always been a challenging proposition. While media relations represents only one aspect of public relations, developments in the past decade have enabled PR departments and agencies to measure the impact of media coverage on the business results of an enterprise. The challenge of measuring direct impact on business results is complex and cannot be answered so easily when multiple sales-driving elements occur simultaneously. While direct comparisons can be made between two variables (e.g., between clip volume and sales in our example above), such simple equations do not reflect the influence other controlled (advertising, promotions, websites, etc.), semi-controlled (publicity, sponsorships and word-of-mouth, etc.) and uncontrolled factors (news, competitive marketing, the weather, etc.) may have on sales nor the relative impact of each factor. In this context, the essential questions are: (1) “how does the interaction of different controlled, semi-controlled and uncontrolled factors, including PR, drive sales” and (2) “how can PR be leveraged optimally within the marketing mix to propel incremental sales?” According to Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS), a leading private equity firm dedicated to the information, education and media industries which published the Communications Industry Forecast covering the years 2003-2013, PR programs traditionally attract much lower levels of overall investment when compared with other forms of marketing and communication (on average, a fraction of one percent of all market investment goes towards PR). And yet, the competitive nature of business today requires that every performance-optimization opportunity be fully explored. As a result, the VSS findings point towards increasing levels of interest in public relations, the case for which would be accelerated by PRs ability prove its power in efficiently driving business outcomes, either directly or in conjunction with other elements. A growing collection of statistically validated evidence, one example of which is included here, makes for a credible and compelling proposition highlighting the value of media-focused public relations in a marketing communication environment. And yet, despite the urgent need for organizations to optimize their marketing resources across the entire portfolio including advertising, sales, promotion, digital, public relations and more relatively few PR-focused marketing mix modeling cases are publicly available for further study. This paper examines marketing mix modeling and PRs representation in such measurement. At the same time, this paper seeks to introduce, represent and add information to the body of knowledge which clearly demonstrates the business case for public relations within an organizations marketing portfolio. INTRODUCTION: Proving and Improving PR Value 6 Presenting Marketing Mix Modeling Since the late 1990s, in cases of simultaneous and parallel marketing communication campaigns, leading marketers have adopted marketing mix modeling to understand and fully leverage the effect of individual and integrated marketplace activities on business results, including sales and profitability. While the analytical technique is most commonly applied to those marketing activities with the highest levels of expenditure, such as television advertising, trade marketing and price promotions, the technique applies very well to public relations tactics such as media relations, event sponsorships and social media. Marketing mix modeling is a technique that draws market-shaping data from disparate sources, applies advanced statistical analysis and provides insights into the efficiency and effectiveness of ongoing marketing programs. Using traditional variables including sales, advertising Gross Rating Points or the content analysis of news coverage to represent PR in the form of media relations results, researchers examine the data to create more complete views of the marketplace and to estimate the impact on sales. Given an understanding of what drives sales, it becomes possible to explain past results and influence future sales. Furthermore, by taking each marketing communication expenditure into account, brands can empirically determine the best budget allocation from among their different marketing investment options. The importance of knowing in advance what factors, or combination of factors, drive sales, and their relative efficiency in doing so, promises to answer important questions such as the one posed by John Wanamaker and Lord Leverhulme. Based on its underlying use of multivariate statistics and regression analysis, marketing mix modeling seeks to quantify the impact of any individual marketing activity on sales volume. At the same time, the model accounts for the effects of concurrent controllable (e.g., advertising, pricing), semi-controllable (e.g., public relations, sponsorships) and uncontrollable external factors (e.g., seasonality, competitor activities) to quantify the
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