中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究.pdf

2019 05 中国传统燃油汽车退出 时间表研究 A STUDY ON CHINAS TIMETABLE FOR PHASING-OUT TRADITIONAL ICE-VEHICLES 能源与交通创新中心（iCET）中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目 ( 油控研究项目 ) 中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是 中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态 环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着 中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自 然资源保护协会（NRDC）和能源基金会中国（EF China）作为 协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等 十余家有影响力的单位合作，于 2018 年 1 月共同启动了“中 国石油消费总量控制和政策研究” 项目 （简称油控研究项目） ， 促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用， 助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障 能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变 化等多重目标做出贡献。 自然资源保护协会（NRDC）是一家国际公益环保组织，拥有 约 300 万会员及支持者。NRDC 致力于保护地球环境，即保护 人类、动植物以及所有生灵所倚赖的生态系统。自 1970 年成 立以来，我们的环境律师、科学家和专家一直在为公众享有 清洁的水和空气以及健康的社区而努力。通过在科学、经济 和政策方面的专业知识，我们在亚洲、欧洲、拉美和北美等 地区与当地合作伙伴一起共同推进环境的综合治理与改善。 请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc。 本报告由能源与交通创新中心（iCET）撰写。能源与交通创新 中心（iCET）是在中国北京和美国加州注册的非营利专业智库 组织，2016 年被评为中国 4A 级社会组织。iCET 是一个在清洁 交通、低碳经济和气候变化领域中具有领导力的机构，其核 心使命是为各级决策者提供能够缓解能源和气候危机并创造 绿色能源生态体系所急需的创新型解决方案。在清洁交通领 域，致力于加速中国交通向后石油时代与零排放转型。请登 录网站了解更多详情 icet。3 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究 油控研究项目系列报告 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究 A STUDY ON CHINAS TIMETABLE FOR PHASING-OUT TRADITIONAL ICE-VEHICLES 报告作者 安 锋 康利平 秦兰芝 毛世越 王雯雯 Maya Ben Dror 能源与交通创新中心（iCET） 2019 年 05 月油控研究项目系列报告 4 首字母缩略词 BEV Battery Electric Vehicle 纯电动汽车 CA Conditional Autopilot 有条件自动驾驶 CNG Composed Natural Gas 压缩天然气 CO Carbon Monoxide 一氧化碳 CO 2 Carbon Dioxide 二氧化碳 CV Commercial Vehicle 商用车 DA Driving Autopilot 汽车驾驶辅助 EV Electric Vehicle 电动汽车 FCV Fuel Cell Vehicle 燃料电池汽车 GDP Gross Domestic Production 国内生产总值 GHGs Greenhouse Gases 温室气体 HC Hydrocarbon 碳氢化合物 HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle 混合动力汽车 ICEV Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle 内燃机汽车 LNG Liquied Natural Gas 液化天然气 MaaS Mobility as a Service 出行即服务 NEV New Energy Vehicle 新能源汽车 NGHV Natural Gas Hybrid Vehicle 天然气混合动力汽车 NGV Natural Gas Vehicle 天然气汽车 NOx Nitrogen Oxides 氮氧化物 PA Partial Autopilot 部分自动驾驶 PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle 插电式混合动力汽车 PM 10 Particulate Matters under 10m 可吸入颗粒物 PM 2.5 Particulate Matters under 2.5m 微颗粒物 PV Passenger Vehicle 乘用车 SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide 二氧化硫 VKT Vehicle Kilometers Travelled 平均行驶里程 VOCs Volatile Organic Compounds 可挥发性有机物 ZEV Zero Emission Vehicle 零排放汽车5 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究 目录 Executive Summary 7 执行报告 11 前言 37 1. 全球传统燃油汽车退出背景研究 38 1.1 汽车行业降低石油消耗的核心路径 1.2 各国新能源汽车发展规划与目标 1.3 主要企业新能源汽车发展战略 1.4 各机构对全球新能源汽车市场的预测 1.5 各国 / 地区传统燃油汽车禁售情况 1.6 传统燃油汽车禁售驱动力分析 2. 中国汽车产业未来发展趋势及规划 60 2.1 中国汽车产业发展及石油消耗情况 2.2 中国汽车未来需求发展分析 2.3 中国汽车未来技术趋势及市场分析 2.4 中国汽车产业基础设施发展趋势分析 2.5 中国汽车产业发展相关规划 3. 中国传统燃油车退出“2050 未来情景”分析 72 3.1 中国汽车行业石油消耗模型构建油控研究项目系列报告 6 3.2 中国传统燃油车退出“2050 未来情景”设立 3.3 “2050 未来情景”能源消耗与排放影响 4. 中国新能源汽车发展与传统车退出分区域画像研究 95 4.1 新能源汽车发展与传统燃油车控制的驱动力 4.2 各区域新能源汽车发展现状及推广环境 4.3 区域层级划分及区域画像特点 4.4 中国现有汽车限购区域分析 5. 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表提出 115 5.1 传统燃油汽车与替代能源汽车的定义 5.2 传统燃油汽车退出优先级次序 5.3 传统燃油汽车退出时间表提出依据 5.4 传统燃油汽车退出时间及路径 6. 中国传统燃油汽车退出的不确定性及建议 126 6.1 中国传统燃油汽车退出市场的不确定性 6.1 新能源汽车快速发展的风险与问题 6.3 中国传统燃油汽车退出建议 参考文献 1347 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究 Executive Summary The report assesses the feasibility for phasing out Chinas internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), focusing on the benefits, uncertainties and risks associated with this transition. The end goal of the project is to propose a holistic plan for the phasing out of Chinas ICEVs in the near future. China has been the worlds largest car market for a decade, with total sales reaching 30 million a year by 2018. Car ownership rates in China have exceeded 200 million. Chinas oil consumption in 2018 was 625 million tons, with the rate of imported oil rising to 70.9%, posing a potential threat to Chinas national energy security. Vehicles accounted for 42% of the total consumption of crude oil and for more than 80% of refined oil. Indeed, the phase out of ICEVs would be a significant factor in reducing Chinas total oil consumption. There are already several sovereign countries and regions that have announced plans to phase out ICEVs beginning in 2016, including Chinas Hainan province, which officially announced a ban on sales of ICEVs to be completed by 2030. China has invested heavily in new energy vehicles (NEV), especially electric vehicles (EV) by weighing the potentials for energy saving, air quality improvement, and the de- carbonization transition of the auto industry as a whole. After a decade-long incubation period, the proportion of NEV sales exceeded 4% in 2018. An agenda for the phase out of ICEVs should be seriously considered. In this report, the substitutes for ICEVs include Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV), etc. In this study, the principle of “by region, by vehicle category and step by step” has been highlighted. The methodology considers 10 indicators including, local economic conditions, car ownership and saturation, accessibility of ICEVs, NEV promotion, NEV industry development, infrastructure for NEV, and air pollution control area. The mainland China has been divided into 4 levels, among which level I and level II are mainly cities, while levels III and level IV include other regions. The phase-out process should be made step by step, as follows:油控研究项目系列报告 8 Level Regions Level I Mega Metropolis(i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) Functional Pilot Regions(i.e. Xiongan, Hainan) Level II Pilot cities with limited ability to purchase autos Provincial capitals in the key regions of the “Blue Sky War” Cities that lead in NEV promotion, core cities within industrial clusters as well as coastal cities Level III Key regions in the “Blue Sky War,”e.g. North China, Yangtze River Delta, and Fenwei Plain Area NEV industrial cluster areas, e.g. the Great Pearl River Delta, Central China Region Other pilot cities, e.g. Guiyang City Level IV The remaining regions in the Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, and Inner Mongolia Considering the current political strategies, technical developments in car models, scenarios for use and difficulties related to promotion, the ICEV categories have been segmented into several sub-classes under Passenger Vehicles (PV) and Commercial Vehicles (CV), which are listed as follows: Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle PV1 PV2 CV1 CV2 CV3 Category Taxis, rental cars, e-hailing vehicles Official cars Private cars City buses, sanitation vehicles, (light) logistics vehicles, campus vehicles, commuter cars Coaches, intercity buses, intercity logistics vehicle Medium and heavy trucks Based on NEV industry goals and technological strategy, a model projecting Chinas auto industry development has been built with extensive consultation from industrial experts. The trajectory during the 2020-2030 period is close to the existing national goals set beforehand, while the trajectory from 2031-2050 is based on an assumption of oil consumption being 55% by 2040 and 80% by 2050, down from the peak value of 280 million tons. A timetable for phasing out ICEVs has also been proposed, according to estimated car model evolution in the future. The timetable is shown as follows: