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MEDIA PREDICTIONS 2019Media Predictions 2019 2 Before we gaze into our crystal ball and make predictions for 2019, we wanted to reflect on 2018 and what has been another year of change in media - and its implications for research organisations like Kantar. Weve seen the continued fragmentation of audiences and the ever-fierce battle for eyeballs with the growth of Netflix and Amazon. Making sense of this changing landscape is challenging and increasingly were seeing a connected intelligence approach, where syndicated data solutions of all types are being directly integrated with advertisers first party data. Away from the screen, were witnessing a renaissance in audio through the rise of voice activation for consumer applications. As with all new technologies, voice is creating both challenges and opportunities for the research industry. This year, we have started tracking and measuring voice activation and can already see the ways in which it is changing consumer behaviour. And 2018 will of course be remembered for the introduction of the General Data Protection Regulation across Europe. From the point of view of a market research organisation, GDPR is one of the best things that could have happened. It has not only put clear blue water in between market research and other data solutions, but also placed a greater emphasis on the provenance of data and transparency for consumers, both of which have always sat at the heart of market research. There has never been a more exciting time in media. We look forward to working together with our clients the widespread use of Artificial Intelligence in most marketing applications, and maybe a new realisation that there is no Holy Grail in measurement, but you can continue to improve marketings impact through the intelligent application of insights. So for 2019 heres a set of 12 lively predictions from our experts around the world. Were not focusing on grand, airy-fairy concepts, but useful, practical ideas that will help marketers and their agencies tackle media and effectiveness measurement challenges head on, without fear. And this year were renaming them Media Predictions, because most media is now becoming digital. EDITORS INTRODUCTION Jane Ostler, Kantar Media Predictions 20196 More sophisticated use of data, combined with analytics techniques and Artificial Intelligence (AI), will allow marketers to understand true ROI. The pressure to understand the ROI of marketing investments is increasing all around us. Measuring/proving ROI is the #1 struggle for advertisers globally, with understanding omnichannel behaviour and optimizing media investment close behind Source: Kantars Getting Media Right, 2018. The appearance of the “Chief Growth Officer” replacing the good old CMO is not just a phonetic curiosity. It signals a clear trend that marketing professionals need to talk the money language for everything they do, or they will lose their seat at the table. As a client of mine put it recently: “if you cant show your dollar contribution, you become a cost - and costs can be cut”. With this pressure, effectiveness measurement will need to up its game. My bet is that 2019 will see significant changes in this area. The biggest dilemma is that there is still a strong divide in the way measurement is done for different investments. Traditional Market Mix Modelling and econometric models have the advantage of being able to give an overall perspective of marketing investments impact on sales. They were perfect when the media plans and marketing investments followed a fairly standard approach. In todays ever-changing marketing environment, these models lack granularity and are not very sensitive to digital investments, so they are increasingly seen as non-actionable tools for optimisation. Multi-touch attribution approaches are detailed and provide great platforms for optimisation of digital spend, but are too campaign-specific and limited to digital conversion. What use is this for companies that still have 90% of their sales happening offline? What will make a difference? Firstly, advancements in data management systems and analytics will help to solve the offline/ online conversion dilemma, and also navigate the online and offline investments ecosystem. And all this in an always-on data ingestion environment. Secondly, the increased use of AI/Machine Learning during the modelling process will expedite the process and allow greater sophistication in the number of modelling solutions used as well as real-time validation (i.e. what is actually happening in the market). Getting this right is important for demonstrating the ROI of marketing investments and will be a massive competitive advantage to help forecast ROI for our clients strategies. ANALYTICS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE ROI DIVIDE Gonzalo Fuentes, Kantar Media Predictions 20198 Marketers will start to explore voice technologies in creative ways. We predict a veritable outburst in voice/audio activity undertaken by brands in 2019. Far removed from the traditional 30” broadcast radio spot, the growth in connected audio devices (smart speakers, connected in-car entertainment) and formats (podcasts, voice search, voice assistants), gives rise to new creative opportunities for brands to use audio in their communications. This raises some interesting questions for marketers: how to integrate voice activity with the rest of the campaign and how they find their own voice. This will include decisions about what voice (or voices) to choose, and means they need to develop an approach for sonic logos/taglines/mnemonics. With around 24% of US households owning a smart speaker, voice retail gives rise to new branded search opportunities, the equivalent of being at the top of a paid search, or on an eye level shelf instore. It means a whole new landscape for branded content too. How about sponsored audio recipes from manufacturers which link to a basket of ingredients? Theres also more potential for brands to target their advertising, based on audiences demographic and voice search behaviour. The use of AI in deciding the optimal target audience in real time will be based on other consumers past behaviour, and will determine what results you hear. Voice means some tricky challenges in company structure: voice content means tmerging the traditional silos of marketing and customer service. Trust in brands will become even more important in determining who moves to the top of the list. Alexa and others will start to be integrated into in-car entertainment, overcoming the horrendous in-car UX experience. Voice capability will expand to other currently dumb objects ask your microwave how long to defrost that fish! And finally, well see voice used more as a market research tool; youll be in your kitchen, answering questions, reviewing experiences, or submitting product reviews. This means connection and integration with other brand channels will become crucial - any innovation is pointless if you dont test and learn. And a host of new exciting jobs will be established: who wants to be an audio influencer, a sponsored voice assistant, or the voice of branded audio content? Sounds great to me. BRANDS RAISE THEIR VOICE Jane Ostler, Kantar Media Predictions 201910 Marketers will turn to China to understand how social media can use new technologies to develop trusted and richer experiences. Paid and earned use of social media by brands in China is thriving; Tik Tok, the short video sharing platform, reaches more than 100,000 users with social ads. Meanwhile there are more than 500,000 product- related posts every minute on Red, the social media site Source: Kantar Media CIC. Given the vastness of social media in China, with more than 700 million regular users, the importance of influencers continues to grow. Marketers in China are increasing investment in influencer and celebrity partnerships on social media. However, brands are finding it challenging to measure the real ROI among the many walled garden platforms. New solutions are emerging to quantify the influence of key opinion leaders, including a Kantar Media CIC partnership using blockchain. The concept is simple: the influencer sets up an account on the platform with an opt-in profile to their digital influencing power data, e.g. number of fans, average reads per posts, etc. The data is then verified by other users on the blockchain, providing an accurate indication of the influencers reach. In effect users become the quality controllers, building trust when it comes to how many fans an influencer has, and how many of them read, engage and interact with them. The use of social media by brands is becoming even more sophisticated with a third generation of social media user - artificial intelligence. AI is an emerging “user” in social media who can learn cognitive functions to develop a human personality and interacting with other social media users. These AI users are gaining popularity and even becoming influencers. One such example is Microsofts Xiaobing, a popular virtual social media character, and is able to interact with users on Weibo, WeChat and Meipai and even write poetry, childrens books and songs. In 2019 well see the continued evolution of social media in China as a channel for rich brand experiences with consumers. ADAPTED FROM KANTAR MEDIAS CHINESE SOCIAL MEDIA LANDSCAPE REPORT BUILDING TRUST AND INTERACTIVE EXPERIENCES ON SOCIAL MEDIA Coolio Yang, Kantar China Media Predictions 201912 Brands will create new kinds of experiences for consumers, and learn how to integrate and evaluate them. Welcome to disruption: Social platforms becoming marketplaces, ecommerce businesses becoming publishers, publishers becoming content creators, data scientists becoming advertisers, ad agencies becoming technology businesses. Within just three months of 2018, Amazon launched their first voice-controlled microwave, Apple introduced their fourth generation of smart watches, and 6 million new smart speakers were sold into our homes. The consumer is at the centre of this development and is turning the marketing world upside down. The conversation now goes beyond selling products: we now have the mission to create experiences, more than converting leads and driving consumers in one single journey. But what does that all mean for media managers? Media channels like TV, radio and social media, will evolve into the internet of everything a vast experience network. Our Connect database, with over 350,000 touchpoint evaluations, reveals that experiential brand moments contribute up to nearly 50% of brand desirability, and paid media contribute around 25% of the overall success in building long-term brand equity. Media managers will turn into network managers and will be forced to create an integrated experience across all touchpoints consumers interact with. How can a brand message create value in this new infrastructure? To answer this question, media managers will need to move from thinking about media channels to thinking about consumers. How will consumers make use of the internet of everything in the various categories? For automotive brands, the connected car is becoming a standard infrastructure, but nearly half of connected car owners dont understand the features they have Source: Kantar TNS Connected Car study. For consumer products like food, the smart fridge or microwave might be a relevant touchpoint. This development has just started, and its more than a trend - its a fundamental change. Those that rethink media management will lead this development and create exciting use cases in 2019. BRANDS BUILD EXPONENTIAL EXPERIENCES Niels Neudecker, Kantar Maura Coracini, Kantar Brazil Media Predictions 2019Media Predictions 2019 14 Brands will start to take the portrayal of women in advertising seriously. We predict that in 2019 advertisers will start getting to grips with societal issues, and use their power and leverage to promote progressive gender portrayals in advertising. Not being gender progressive would be to “reinforce rather than help eradicate harmful gender-based stereotypes” Source: Unstereotype Alliance. When it comes to gender targeting, the marketing industry is going back to school. As with any new skill, there are four stages of learning, commonly known as the Hierarchy of Competence. There are still many people in the marketing industry who dont realise there is a problem unconsciously incompetent, if you like. But in 2019 evidence will continue to emerge showing that gender targeting is not sufficiently progressive. Women cannot relate to many of the ads they see, and progressive male role models are also a rare sight. For example, while 75% of ads tested by Kantar feature women, just 6% portray women in authoritative roles Source: Link global database, 2018. Major brands such as Sofitel are still unwittingly causing offence, and needing to pull their ads. As more marketers accept they are consciously incompetent, we will see a thirst for knowledge about how to address these media and creative challenges. People will pore over the insights and case studies being shared via platforms such as the Unstereotype Alliance, as well as enhancing their copy testing with gender equality metrics, and ensuring suitable checks and balances are in place prior to launch. This will lead to proactive action, and the gradual eradication of the worst offending ads (hopefully). By the end of 2019 many more advertisers will be consciously competent. The transition will not be without some missteps. It will be typified by more statement campaigns which turn gender stereotypes on their head, such as Always #LikeAGirl and Axe #isitokforguys, as well as many less heralded but equally important steps, such as toy manufacturers adjusting stereotypical gender assumptions in how they target children. It may not be until 2020 before we see many advertisers making progressive targeting seem like second nature unconscious competence. The ones who will get there first will be marketers who establish progressiveness measurement systems to benchmark themselves and drive institutional change, like Diageo and Unilever. Gender targeting is obviously just one aspect; other factors such as race, sexual orientation and age are also vital considerations. Best in class marketers will embrace gender as part of a wider inclusion and diversity programme, and will expect the same of the agencies that work with them. GENDER TARGETING GETS REAL Duncan Southgate, Kantar
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