上海写字楼市场报告2019年第三季度.pdf

SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q3 2019 上 海 写 字 楼 市 场 报 告 2019 年 第三季度 RESEARCH 研究报告3 2 RESEARCH SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q TABLE Major Grade-A oc e sub-market indicators, Q3 2019 Submarket Rent (RMB / sqm / day) Rent % change (QoQ) Vacancy rate Vacancy rate percentage point change (QoQ) Little Lujiazui 12.2 1.2% 10.2% 0.6 Nanjing We Road 11.1 3.7% 0.2 Huaihai Middle Road 9.8 3.1% 0.3 Xujiahui 7 .6 2.7% 2.6% 0.3 The Century Avenue 8.9 3.3% 14.6% 1.2 Source: Knight Frank Research FIGURE Grade-A oc e rental and price indices In Q3, the average rent in Core Business Districts decreased 0.9% QoQ to RMB11.3 per sqm per day, albeit a slower decline. Amongst, the average rent in Nanjing West Road and Huaihai Middle Road remained the same as that in the second quarter (Q2). Some landlords in Little Lujiazui previously with high office rents began to reduce asking rents, causing the average rent to go down by 1.2% QoQ to RMB12.2 per sqm per day. In Q3, the average rent in the Century Avenue area dropped by 3.3% QoQ to RMB8.9 per sqm per day, showing the largest rental decline among all business districts in Q3. Landlords slashed rents and offered incentives such as fit-out contributions and rent-free periods to allow the vacant space resulting from new completions and the withdrawal of P2P companies to be absorbed at a fast pace. The average vacancy rate of office buildings along Century Avenue continued to drop for four consecutive quarters to 14.6%. The Century Avenue area has become one of the most favourable markets to undertake the overflow demand from Little Lujiazui due to its relative low rents and the vicinity of Little Lujiazui. For example, Chongqing Fumin Bank rented 1,200 sqm of office space in Yuexiu Tower . Although the overall office market rent continued to drop in Q3, the average rent in some submarkets increased steadily. The average rent in Xujiahui increased by 2.7% QoQ to RMB7 .6 per sqm per day. The high volume of leasing activity of Grand Gateway 66 in Xujiahui contributed the most to the overall rental increase in Xujiahui. New Oriental Education rented 1,650 sqm of office space in Grand Gateway 66. The average rent in Hongkou North Bund increased by 7 .8% QoQ to RMB8.3 per sqm per day. High-end financial and financial technology companies with high rental affordability performed actively, pushing up the rental level in the North Bund area. Puhui Wealth, a wealth investment and management company, leased 700 sqm of office space in the high zone of Sinar Mas Plaza. Liantong Technical Service, a financial technology joint venture between American Express and Lianlian Pay, also rented 2,500 sqm of office space in the high zone of Sinar Mas Plaza. In the strata-title market, the average office price increased slightly 1% QoQ to RMB67 ,958 per sqm. The sales performance of Tagen Riverside Centre in Pudong and Hongqiao R&F Centre in Hongqiao CBD were good in Q3. The LOFT type Tagen Riverside Centre was well received by the market with transaction prices ranging from RMB54,000 to RMB60,000 per sqm. Most of the units sold in Hongqiao R&F Centre are office space sized between 250 sqm and 410 sqm with transaction price ranging from RMB55,000 to RMB70,000 per sqm in standard office towers and detached office blocks. RENTS AND PRICES Source: Knight Frank Research RENTAL DECLINE IN CORE CBDS SLOWED IN Q In the third quarter (Q3), new supply in the Shanghais Grade-A office market was 72,000 sqm and the net absorption area rebounded to 330,000 sqm. In the first three quarters of 2019, the total newly completed Grade-A office space reached 757 ,665 sqm. The average rent of Grade-A office fell by 1.1% QoQ, dropping for four consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of 2018 to RMB9.3 per sqm per day. Due to the limited number of new project openings and the increased leasing demand, the overall vacancy rate in the Grade-A office market in Q3 decreased by 1.4 percentage points QoQ to 12.1%. The leasing demand was still dominated by domestic companies, which accounted for more than 60% while that of European and American companies accounted for 20%. The office leasing demand from sectors including finance, professional services, TMT and biomedicine remained active. In Q3, several favourable policies were introduced and implemented by the government, encouraging both domestic and foreign companies to invest and jointly develop high-end manufacturing, frontier technology and high-end finance, posing a positive impact on the future leasing TABLE Shanghai Grade-A oc e market indicators Indicator Q3 2019 gure QoQ change Outlook (Q4 2019) New supply 72,000 sqm 47% Rent RMB9.3 / sqm / day 1.1% Vacancy rate 12.1% 1.4 percentage points Price RMB67 ,958 / sqm 1.1% Source: Knight Frank Research TABLE Major Grade-A oc e leasing transactions, Q3 2019 Dirict Building Zone Area (sqm) Hongkou Sinar Mas Plaza High-zone 2,500 Pudong Building 1, Crystal Plaza High-zone 2,100 Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation TABLE Major Grade-A oc e r ata-title sales transactions, Q3 2019 Dirict Building Floor / unit Area (sqm) Unit Price (RMB / sqm) Pudong Hengyue Huading Plaza 6 thfloor unit 61 88,266 Xuhui Greenland Centre Phase Two 19 thfloor unit 504 75,021 Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2003Q1=100 Rental index Price index 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 demand of Shanghais overall office market. It is expected that there will be another 900,000 sqm of new projects to be completed in the fourth quarter (Q4), of which most of the new supply will be concentrated in Xuhui Binjiang and the Pudong Post-Expo areas. The above submarkets will face downward pressure on rents due to the increase in new supply. Given the weakening demand and lack of new demand sources, the market rent is expected to drop 1-2% QoQ in Q4 while the overall vacancy rate would increase due to the huge amount of new supply. Furthermore, with the support of incentive policies, artificial intelligence (AI) and related industries will remain a major source of leasing demand of Grade-A offices in the long term. On 26 July, the Shanghai Municipal Government published “the opinions of Shanghais promotion of the development of multinational corporation (MNC)s regional headquarters by Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government”, which was implemented on 1 September. According to the opinions, more asset-light enterprises in emerging sectors, including Internet and digitalisation, will benefit from the relaxation of the standards for the classification of regional headquarters by receiving fiscal subsidy and enjoying tax reduction. Favourable business environment will foster the development of enterprises, which is of great benefit to drive the office leasing demand on the expansion or the setup of new offices and branches. On 6 August, the State Council approved the setup of Lingang area of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) and released a series of favourable policies, which POLICY REVIEW aimed to establish a cluster featuring international business, cross-border financial services, frontier technology research and development (R&D) as well as cross-border trade in services. Amongst, the leading industry including intelligent network and new energy vehicles (NEV) have gathered in Lingang. A total of 24 key projects about intelligent network and NEV covering manufacturing, application, services and functional platform signed contracts in September for a total investment of RMB8 billion. Given the development opportunities of industries brought by the gathering of enterprises, the commercial projects in Lingang area has also drawn attention from the market. More enterprises locate their offices in Lingang area, which will have a positive impact on the development of Shanghais overall office market in the future. On 12 September, a total of 26 specific measures were released by the government to further promote foreign investment at a broader and deeper level. Amongst, relaxing or removing the restrictions on the proportion of foreign ownership in financial institutions will not only further open up several financial sectors including securities, funds and life insurance, but boost their office leasing demand as well. In the same month, the signing ceremony for 42 foreign-owned projects was held in Shanghai for a total investment of approximately RMB55 billion, involving sectors like intelligent manufacturing, biomedicine, chemicals, integrated circuit, new energy, new material, commerce and trade, as well as finance. Foreign companies desire to step into emerging industries and financial sector will foster their growth. In the long run, foreign companies from the above sectors are expected to be major driving force of the Shanghai office leasing market.5 研 究 报 告 上 海 写 字 楼 市 场 报 告 年 第 三 季 度 4 In Q3, Lujiazui Binjiang Centre, as the only new project in Shanghais Grade-A office market, was completed and delivered in the Pudong Yangjing area, bringing approximately 72,000 sqm of office space to the market and driving up the total stock to 18.72 million sqm. Lujiazui Binjiang Centre, although acquired by Lujiazui Group from Greenland Group for RMB3.413 billion in 2016, was constructed by Greenland after acquisition. The new supply gradually decreased in the previous three quarters in 2019, reaching approximately 758,000 sqm, 21% lower than the average level of 960,000 sqm over the same period since 2016. Financial companies performed relatively well in Q3. In terms of new leases, the leasing demand from the financial sector accounted for 30% of the total, including banks as well as investment and financing lease companies. As the CBDs, both little Lujiazui and Nanjing West Road areas are the first choices for financial companies. For example, American Cathay Bank moved from Azia Centre to Foxconn Building, leasing 2,600 sqm of office space in the low zone. Qingsong Fund, a domestic fund, leased 300 sqm of office space in Jingan Kerry Centre Phase Two on Nanjing West Road. Its worth noting that co-working players still performed well and continued to take up more space in the office leasing market. WeWork leased 4,500 sqm of office space in One Lujiazui in Little Lujiazui in Q3 after taking up a large space in Yifang Centre in In Q3, the Shanghai property investment market was quiet, recording four en-bloc sales for a total consideration of over RMB2 billion. Of the four transactions, three involved office properties and one for mixed-use development. Besides domestic developers, investors in Q3 also included funds from South-East Asia. On 7 August, Daning Partners Limited, co-invested by Amprop, Chelsfield Group 7 月26 日 ， 市 政 府 办 公 厅 印 发 上 海 市 人 民 政 府 关 于 本 市 促 进 跨 国 公 司 地 区 总 部 发 展 的 若 干 意 见 ， 并 于9 月1 日 起 开 始 正 式 实 施 。 其 中 ， 优 化 地 区 总 部 认 定 标 准 使 得 更 多 企 业 例 如 互 联 网 、 数 字 化 等 新 兴 领 域 轻 资 产 企 业 可 以 符 合 地 区 总 部 认 定 ， 享 受 财 政 补 贴 和 税 收 减 免 等 政 策 优 惠 。 良 好 的 营 商 环 境 将 推 动 企 业 积 极 发 展 ， 无 论 是 规 模 的 扩 张 抑 或 是 新 设 立 办 公 地 点 或 者 设 立 分 支 机 构 对 于 上 海 整 体 写 字 楼 市 场 租 赁 需 求 的增加大有裨益。 8 月6 日 ， 国 务 院 批 准 设 立 中 国 （ 上 海 ） 自 由 贸 易 试 验 区 临 港 新 片 区 ， 推 出 多 项 积 极 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INVESTMENT MARKET 政策回顾 上 海 甲 级 写 字 楼 市 场 平 均 租 金 继 续 环 比 下 跌1.1% 至 每 天 每 平 方 米 人 民 币9.3 元 ， 这 是 2018 年 第 四 季 度 以 来 连 续 第 四 个 季 度 租 金 出现下滑。 第 三 季 度 新 入 市 项 目 有 限 以 及 市 场 需 求 有 所 回 暖 ， 使 得 甲 级 写 字 楼 市 场 整 体 空 置 率 环比下降1.4个百分点至12.1%。 国 内 企 业 的 租 赁 需 求 依 旧 占 据 主 导 地 位 ， 超 过60% 的 租 赁 需 求 来 自 于 国 内 企 业 ； 欧 美 企 业 的 租 赁 需 求 占 比 仅 在20% 左 右 。 金 融 、 专 业 服 务 、TMT 以 及 生 物 医 药 行 业 的 写字楼租赁需求仍然比较活跃。 第 三 季 度 ， 市 府 出 台 并 实 施 了 多 项 利 好 政 策 ， 鼓 励 国 内 及 外 商 企 业 积 极 投 资 和 参 与 高 端 制 造 、 前 沿 科 技 以 及 高 端 金 融 等 行 业 ， 对 于 上 海 整 体 写 字 楼 市 场 未 来 租 赁 需 求的增加具有积极意义。 FIGURE 2 Grade-A oc e supply, take-up and vacancy rate 第 三 季 度 核 心 商 务 区 租 金 下 跌 趋 势 有 所 放 缓 第 三 季 度 ， 上 海 甲 级 写 字 楼 市 场 新 增 办 公 面 积72,000 平 方 米 ， 市 场 净 吸 纳 量 回 升 至 33万平方米左右。2019年前三季度，市场共新增甲级写字楼面积757 ,665平方米。 表 一 上 海 甲 级 写 字 楼 市 场 参 考 指 标 指 标 2019年 第 三 季 度 数 字 按 季 变 幅 预测 （2019年第四季) 新 增 供 应 72,000平方米 47% 租 金 人民币9.3元/平方米/天 1.1% 空 置 率 12.1% 1.4个百分点 价 格 人民币67 ,958元/平方米 1.1% 资 料 来 源 ： 莱 坊 研 究 部 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 2008 2009 2010 20112 012 2013 20142 0152 0162 0172 018 2019Q1-Q3 000 sqm Grade-A oce supply (le) Grade-A oce net absorption (le) Vacancy rate (right) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 and KHI Holdings, together with Pamfleet Asset Management, acquired four office blocks in Daning International Commercial Plaza of Jingan Daning from Sino Ocean for RMB1.454 billion with a total leasable area of 37,548 sqm. After this acquisition, Daning Partners Limited and Extra Noble, the investment subsidiary of Pamfleet Asset Management hold 50% of the equity for each. Daning International Commercial Plaza, a mixed-use complex in Daning, 第 四 季 度 ， 我 们 预 计 还 将 有90 万 平 方 米 左 右 的 新 项 目 入 市 ， 主 要 分 布 在 徐 汇 滨 江 及 浦 东 后 世 博 区 域 。 新 供 的 增 加 将 对 于 上 述 区域的市场租金产生下行压力。 考 虑 到 整 体 市 场 需 求 较 弱 且 未 有 新 需 求 增 长 点 出 现 ， 我 们 预 计 第 四 季 度 市 场 租 金 仍 the North Bund Area in Q2. Furthermore, Singapore co-working company, JustCo planned to establish a new co-working space by renting a space of 3,300 sqm in LL Land Plaza on Nanjing West Road. This is JustCos third co-working centre in Shanghai following the other two located in the Raffles City Changning Tower Three in the Zhongshan Park area and Wheelock Square on Nanjing West Road. Due to limited number of new projects and stable leasing demand from frontier sectors including technology, pharmaceutical and AI, coupled with incentives such as fit-out contributions and rent-free subsidies periods offered by landlords, the leasing demand rebounded with the overall vacancy rate in the Grade-A office market decreasing by 1.4 percentage points QoQ to 12.1% in Q3. As one of the few hotspots in Shanghai, Pudong Qiantan attracted various types of companies including finance, biomedicine, frontier technology, high-end manufacturing and trading companies. High occupancy rates were recorded in both new completions and existing office buildings. In Q3, the average occupancy rate in Qiantan office market surged from 27% in early 2019 to the current 60%. Louis Dreyfus, a merchant of agriculture goods in France, leased 2,100 sqm of office space in Crystal Plaza Phase Two Building One. comprises office buildings, hotels and a shopping street. On 26 August, First Shanghai Investments sold Fuhai Business Park Phase Three locat