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RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSISLATIN AMERICAACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report benefited from the support of: Henning Wuester, Salvatore Vinci, Nicolas Fichaux, Adrian Whiteman, Michael Taylor, Aleksi Lumijarvi, Neil MacDonald, Paul Komor, Diala Hawila, Divyam Nagpal, Arslan Khalid, Troy Hodges, Andres Fernandez, Celia Garcia-Baos, Verena Ommer, Bishal Parajuli, Ruben Contreras, Deger Saygin, Asami Miketa, Laura Gutierrez, Francisco Boshell, Tobias Rinke, Andrei Ilas, Jacinto Estima, Abdulmalik Oricha Ali, Sandra Chavez (IRENA); Peer reviewers: Manlio Coviello (UN-ECLAC), Hugo Ventura (UN-ECLAC), Claudio Alatorre (IDB), Karin Troncoso (WHO), Jed Bailey (Energy Narrative), Rainer Schrer (GIZ), Marlen Goerner (GIZ), Roberto Schaeffer (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro), Gilberto Jannuzzi (Universidade Estadual de Campinas), Kilian Reiche (ii Development), Jeremy Martin (Institute of the Americas), Arina Anisie (PSR). IRENA would like to acknowledge the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN-ECLAC) in co-organising the expert workshop on October 2015 in Santiago de Chile.AUTHORSThe report was conceptualised and directed by Rabia Ferroukhi (IRENA). The authors include: Ghislaine Kieffer, lvaro Lpez-Pea (IRENA); Luiz Barroso, Rafael Ferreira, Miquel Muoz Cabr, Roberto Gomelski (IRENA consultants). For further information or to provide feedback, please contact IRENAs Policy Unit, P.O. Box 236, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Email: infoirenaDISCLAIMERThe designations employed and the presentation of materials featured herein are provided on an “as is” basis, for informational purposes only, without any conditions, warranties or undertakings, either express or implied, from IRENA, its officials and agents, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness and fitness for a particular purpose or use of such content. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. IRENA 2016Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material featured herein are the property of IRENA and are subject to copyright by IRENA.Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation that it is subject to copyright ( IRENA 2016). Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copy-right and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use. This publication should be cited as: IRENA (2016), Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Latin America. IRENA, Abu Dhabi.ISBN 978-92-95111-49-3 (Print)ISBN 978-92-95111-50-9 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-95111-23-3 (PDF, Executive Summary, ES)ABOUT IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports coun-tries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.irena A Renewable Energy RoadmapLatin America hosts some of the worlds most dynamic renewable energy markets, building on the historical role of hydropower the cornerstone of the regions power sector development and liquid biofuels, driven by Brazils early determination to diversify its transport fuel mix. Since 2004, renewable energy investment in the region (excluding large hydropower) has grown 11-fold, compared with a 6-fold increase worldwide. Investment trends attest to the rapid evolution of the regions energy mix towards a more diversified set of technologies and countries. For the first time in 2015, in addition to Brazil, both Mexico and Chile joined the list of the top 10 largest renewable energy markets globally. In recent years, energy security has been a key driver for energy diversification to limit adverse macroeconomic effects due to the high reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce vulnerability to recurring climate events impacting hydropower generation. The imperative to decarbonise, together with national energy security concerns, in the context of rapidly falling costs of non-hydropower renewables, provides a compelling case for broader renewable energy development in Latin America.Enabling policies have played a decisive role in the regions uptake of renewables. Policy instruments, from renewable power auctions, to solar thermal requirements, to biofuels blending mandates, have helped drive crucial cost reductions. Latin America boasts highly competitive development costs, notably for onshore wind and more recently, solar photovoltaic. In addition, policy makers increasingly recognise renewables as a catalyst for job creation, GDP growth, development of local industries, and energy access. For countries with high shares of hydropower, investment in non-hydropower renewables promises valuable complementarities climatic, technical and economic and greater power system reliability. Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Latin America aims to capture the regions wealth of knowledge and draw key lessons from the regions experience. Building on earlier IRENA work, this ambitious report identifies emerging renewable energy trends and explores key themes at the intersection of public policy and market development. Among those themes is the evolving investment landscape. While investment depends on country conditions, common factors chiefly, access to funding and the cost of finance underlie successful experiences across the region. The ability to leverage local capital, including from Latin Americas strong national development banks, and to allocate risks between the public and private sectors, will be crucial to raise finance for renewables. Energy security, environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness are all at stake in the regions delicate balancing act. With low technology costs, rapid policy learning curves and some of the worlds best resources, rising energy demand presents an opportunity for the region to move to a more sustainable energy system based on higher shares of renewables. Latin Americas policies and achievements, furthermore, bring valuable insights for other renewable energy markets. IRENAs series of regional market analyses consolidates the growing knowledge on policies, finance, costs, benefits, resource potential, technologies and other dimensions into a coherent narrative. This report provides a strong basis to disseminate best practices for renewable energy development, both among countries in the region and in other regions that see comparable challenges and opportunities.Adnan Z. AminDirector-General IRENARENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSISLATIN AMERICAFOREWORDHierve el agua, geothermal, Oaxaca, Mexico sunsinger| Shutterstock5Lists of figures, tables and boxes . 6Abbreviations . 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 10BACKGROUND AND ENERGY OVERVIEW . 221.1 Background . 241.2 Energy overview . 291.3 Energy sector dynamics . 42RENEWABLE ENERGY LANDSCAPE . 482.1 Renewable energy supply and demand . 502.2 Drivers and policies for renewables . 62COSTS AND BENEFITS OF RENEWABLES . 763.1 Renewable energy costs . 773.2 Socio-economic benefits . 81RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT AND FINANCE . 904.1 Renewable energy investment in Latin America . 914.2 Evolution of the capital mix in renewables investment . 944.3 Barriers to renewable energy investment . 1044.4 Overcoming financial barriers to renewable energy investment . 108 IN FOCUS: COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN HYDROPOWER AND OTHER RENEWABLE GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES . 1125.1 Status of hydropower in Latin America . 1145.2 Complementarities between hydropower and other renewable technologies . 1175.3 Harnessing complementarities in electricity system expansion . 1305.4 Harnessing complementarities in electricity system operation . 136 THE WAY FORWARD . 142 References . 152Photo Credits . 159CONTENTS01020304056RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: LATIN AMERICALISTS OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXESLIST OF FIGURESFigure 1.1 GDP growth in Latin America, emerging and developing Asia, and global average, 1990-2014 .22 Figure 1.2 GDP in Latin America in 1990, 2002 and 2014 .23 Figure 1.3 Value of exports of goods and services from Latin America .24 Figure 1.4 Total primary energy supply (TPES) by energy source in Latin America and the sub-regions, 1990-2013 .27Figure 1.5 Electricity generation by energy source in Latin America and the sub-regions, 1990-2013 .29Figure 1.6 Electricity generation by source in Latin America, 1990-2013; and by sub-region in 2013 .30Figure 1.7 Electricity market structures in Latin America . 31Figure 1.8 Evolution of total final energy consumption (TFEC) by sector in Latin America; 1990-2013 .32Figure 1.9 Total final energy consumption (TFEC) by sector in Latin America and the sub-regions, 2013 .33Figure 1.10 Final energy consumption in the transport sector, by energy source, complete region and detail on bioenergy and natural gas use in 2013 by sub-region .35Figure 1.11 Final energy consumption in the industrial sector in Latin America and the sub-regions, 1990-2013 .36Figure 1.12 Final energy consumption in the residential sector in Latin America and the sub-regions, 1990-2013 .37Figure 1.13 Exports and imports of energy relative to total primary energy supply (TPES) in Latin American countries in 2013 (%) .38Figure 2.1 Evolution of renewable energy investments in Latin America and the world, 2004-2015 .45Figure 2.2 Total primary energy supply by sub-region in Latin America, 2013 .46Figure 2.3 Installed renewable power capacity in Latin America, 2000-2015; all technologies and excluding hydropower .47Figure 2.4 Renewable power generation in Latin American sub-regions, 1990-2013 (excluding all hydropower). . . . . . . . . . . 48Figure 2.5 Final consumption of renewable energy in end-use sectors, 2013 .49Figure 2.6 Examples of wind power suitability maps: grid connected, off-grid .54Figure 2.7 Examples of wind power suitability maps: southern Mexico grid-connected .55Figure 3.1 Typical levelised cost of electricity and regional weighted averages by technology, projects commissioned in 2014 .72Figure 3.2 Levelised cost of electricity from utility-scale renewable energy technologies in Latin America .73Figure 3.3 Renewable energy jobs per technology in Latin America (direct and indirect). . . . . . 76Figure 3.4 Rural and urban electrification rates in Latin American countries, 2013 .79Figure 4.1 Investment in renewable energy by country in Latin America, 2005-2015 .62Figure 4.2 Investment in renewable energy by technology in Latin America, 2005-2015 .66Figure 4.3 Total stock market capitalisation and levels of GDP of selected Latin American countries .67Figure 4.4 Barriers to renewable energy investment in Latin America .67Figure 5.1 Electricity generation mix in Latin America in 2013 .68Figure 5.2 Spot wholesale electricity prices in Colombia, 2009-2013 .69Figure 5.3 Water regimes in the northwest of Colombia and wind speeds at the Jepra-chi wind farm .80Figure 5.4 Simulation analysis of the complementarity of wind energy and hydropower from two rivers in Colombia .83LISTS OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES7Figure 5.6a and 5.6bComparison of the flows in the Chiriqu River and the wind speed at David station .84Figure 5.7 Seasonal complementarity between hydropower reservoir levels and wind and biomass power generation in Brazil .86Figure 5.8 Hydropower and other renewable energy technologies in Latin America: Taking advantage of complementarities .86LIST OF TABLESTable 2.1 Renewable energy policies in Latin America, 2015 .62Table 2.2 Renewable energy targets in Latin America, 2015 .65Table 2.3 Biofuel blending mandates in Latin America, 2015 .68Table 4.1 Activities of selected private financing institutions in Latin America .58Table 4.2 Recent activity of global funds for renewable energy in Latin America . 81Table 5.1 Overview of the complementarities mechanisms and their descriptions .37Table 5.2 Selected hydropower projects in Latin America with implementation delays .38Table 5.3 Summary of complementarity mechanisms between hydropower and other renewable energy technologies .49Table 5.4 ENFICC for different generation technologies in Colombia, as established by CREG .58Table 5.5 Estimated values of ENFICC considering the contribution over all periods of the year, and ju
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