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2020 full-year analysis of M more specifically, the aviation industry. Blackstone agreed to acquire Signature Aviation PLC, a London-based provider of air transportation support services for the global business and general aviation market, for a total of $4.29 billion. This is one example of an airlines and airports deal; deals in this subsector made up approximately 40% of the 67 total mergers and acquisitions in the passenger transport segment. The share of announcements involving airlines and airports is thus stable, but the rationale of many transactions has shifted towards cost reduction or short-term liquidity. Targets in Logistics * forecast with COVID-19 Development of global GDP and RPK/CTK (2014 = 100%) Sources: IATA, IMF, World Bank, PwC analysis 60Top 10 M preventative measures such as pre- flight testing or remote symptom detection; and hygiene on the plane, including safe seats, travel kits and on- board assistance. Only 7% of passengers would resume travelling without further ado. Hence, it will become crucial for carriers to ensure a safe but unrestricted passenger experience for travelling in comfort again. Cost pressure and efficiency through automation Due to the drop in demand, many market players are currently focusing on cash flow management and on leveraging potential cost savings. Investments have become few and far between. At the same time, the state of the industry has created new momentum to drive digital transformation. As the willingness of passengers to use self-service increases, it opens up opportunities for carriers to foster automation and address efficiency gains. Such services may include passenger handling during irregularities, automated claims management, chatbot interaction or kiosk services. By driving these initiatives, airlines may be able to improve passenger experience while stepping ahead in optimising their operations at the same time. Beyond those short- and medium-term challenges, however, 2021 is based on the hope of taking another big step towards normality. The cargo segment in particular, which will face an additional demand of around 8,000 cargo flights to distribute the COVID-19 vaccines globally, is expected to contribute significantly to that recovery. While the current pain points and challenges are certainly being acknowledged and understood in the industry, many players still lack the resources and capacity to address them properly in time. Once the industry moves back towards an operational level that generates stable cash flows, we might see a substantial expedition of those initiatives17 Transport and logistics barometer | 19 January 2021 Sources: Refinitiv, PwC analysis Deep dive: cruise lines and ferries After several positive years and a steady increase in revenues and profits, the cruise business faced an almost complete standstill in worldwide business activities due to the effects of the pandemic. Several cruise companies were forced to stop cruise operations as result of travel restrictions and measures taken to contain the spread of the virus. They worked on implementing hygiene plans to restart operations and to attract passengers, but the worldwide development of the pandemic led to the failure of this aim. Containing the virus is a necessity for the recovery of the cruise market. The market itself is fundamentally attractive with significant potential especially in Asia but the current focus of cruise companies is surviving the COVID- 19 crisis to be able to profit from the subsequent upswing. Therefore, companies are looking for mergers within the industry to combine strengths, optimise cost structures or extend cooperation with travel agencies. For example, TUI Cruises bought Hapag-Lloyd Cruises to strengthen their position in an ailing cruise market. In addition, many cruise companies are seeking financial support from investors or state funding to make it through the crisis. Ferry companies have been severely affected by a significant volume decrease. Passenger transport declined sharply by up to 90% or even more; cargo transport also dropped by more than 60% in some cases, but this was still less than the drop in passenger volume. Therefore, ferry companies have been affected by the pandemic less severely than cruise companies. Despite the COVID-related challenges, important issues remain for ferry companies. To be compliant with increasing environmental regulations, investments in new environmentally friendly technologies are required. Moreover, customer demands are forcing cruise companies and ferry companies to reinvest earlier in their vessels and entertainment equipment than in the past. Financing this transformation will be a challenge, which might offer opportunities for investors to invest in these companies. M sharp decline in infections after initial social distancing Scenario 2 mutations and measures: ineffective vaccination due to mutations and imperfect supply chain; new measures in 2021 In both scenarios, we expect a recovery of GDP for the most important economies, e.g. 5.0% in the EU in scenario 1 and 3.5% in scenario 2 in 2021. 3 In the following, we limit our consideration to selected EU territories (see right). The projected growth rates put the EU in the mid range, while China, for example, will rebound much faster with an expected GDP growth of 11% (scenario 1) or 4.1% (scenario 2), and will thus lead global economic recovery in 2021. In the EU, growth will be constrained by continued uncertainty, repeated containment measures and subdued confidence until the vaccination takes effect on a large scale. Investment and private consumption are also expected to remain at low levels due to unemployment or modest wage growth. What does this mean for the T the situation in passenger transport is much more complex. Holiday and leisure travel, business travel and daily commuting have their own dynamics. The first influencing factor is the global economic recovery, which gives companies, but also individuals, the opportunities and the need for mobility. But the traditional correlation between economic development and mobility will no longer exist in its familiar form. Peoples mobility habits will change permanently. Companies have found that working remotely works better than they had thought. Working from home schemes will reduce commuting, and business trips will also be reduced for cost reasons. People are also likely to be cautious about holiday travel, especially long-distance travel, for years to come. So we will see a structural, lasting effect, beyond a crisis-related slump in demand. The future of passenger transport will ultimately also depend on how the mobility industry with airlines, rail companies, bus companies and other new mobility providers, but also associated segments such as hotels can meet these new mobility needs and regain consumer trust in safe travel. Source: PwC scenario analysis Freight transport and logistics Projected GVA in the EU* Source: PwC scenario analysis, November 2020 Passenger transport Projected GVA in the EU* * Based on selected territories: Austria, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Spain * Disclaimer: projection wherever actuals are not yet available Source: PwC scenario analysis, November 2020 -9.0% -9.5% +5.4% +3.9% +4.0% +2.9% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 2020* 2021 2022 -19.7% -24.3% +6.6% +4.5% +4.8% +3.1% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 2020* 2021 202228 Transport and logistics barometer | 19 January 2021 Outlook for M all other specialty trade contractors; commuter rail systems; bus and other motor vehicle transit systems; other urban transit systems; inter-urban and rural bus transportation; taxi service; limousine service; school and employee bus transportation; charter bus industry; special needs transportation; all other transit and ground passenger transportation; other support activities for road transportation Rail: line-haul railroads; short-line railroads; support activities for rail transportation Logistics: gas distribution; freight transportation arrangement; packing and crating; all other support activities for transportation; postal service; couriers; local messengers and local delivery; general warehousing and storage; refrigerated warehousing and storage; farm product warehousing and storage; other warehousing and storage; process, physical distribution and logistics consulting services Trucking: general freight trucking, local; general freight trucking, long distance, truckload; general freight trucking, long distance, less than truckload; used household and office goods moving; specialised freight (except used goods) trucking, local; specialised freight (except used goods) trucking, long distance Shipping: deep-sea freight transportation; deep-sea passenger transportation; coastal and great lakes freight transportation; coastal and great lakes passenger transportation; inland water freight transportation; inland water passenger transportation; port and harbour operations; marine cargo handling; navigational services to shipping; other support activities for water transportation; regulation and administration of transportation programmes Other: scheduled freight air transportation; non-scheduled chartered freight air transporta- tion; other non-scheduled air transportation; mixed-mode transit systems; commercial air, rail and water transportation equipment rental and leasing; passenger car rental; passenger car leasing; truck, utility trailer and RV rental and leasing Includes content supplied by IHS Global Inc. or its third party provider. Copyright IHS Global Inc. 2020. All rights reserved. Methodology This report is an analysis of the current industry environment and of global transaction and strategic collaboration activities in the T non-scheduled chartered passenger air transportation; air traffic control; other airport operations; other support activities for air transportation36 Transport and logistics barometer | 19 January 2021 Contacts Ingo Bauer Partner, Transport & Logistics Industry Leader Tel: +49 201 438-1107 Dr. Andr Wortmann Partner, Coordinator Transport & Logistics Deals, PwC Europe Tel: +49 40 6378-1414 Acknowledgements Christian Czernay, Business Recovery Services, PwC Germany Frank Stadlbauer, Infrastructure Advisory, PwC Germany Martin Krause, Marketing & Communications, PwC Germany Matthias Riveiro, Customer Practice, PwC Germany Niklas Schemken, Customer Practice, PwC Germany Philipp-Marcel Strobl, Strategy& Germany Thorben Wegner, Strategy& Germany Dr. Peter Kauschke Director of Transport, Logistics, Mobility Tel: +49 211 981-2167 Elisa Domnik Business Development, Transport & Logistics Tel: +49 211 981-4082 Philip Wbse Manager, Research Center Tel: +49 69 9585-6945 Burkhard Sommer Deputy Head, Maritime Competence Center Germany Tel: +49 40 6378-1769 Alan Ng Partner, Mainland China & Hong Kong Transportation & Logistics Leader Tel: +852 2289 2828 Roger Zhang Partner, Mainland China & Hong Kong Transportation & Logistics Deals Leader Tel: +86 (20) 3819 2247 Mainland China and Hong Kong Other territories2021 PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprfungsgesellschaft. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprfungsgesellschaft, which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm of PwCIL is a separate legal entity
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