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HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 METHODOLOGY Visit our website: adobe.ly/AdobeInsights Sign up for email alerts: cmo/adiregister.html Follow us: adobeinsights Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via: Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S. based on retail websites Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products Companion research based on survey of 1,000+ U.S. consumers in October 2018 Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100* retailers on the web in the U.S. Adobe Advertising Cloud * Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018 Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics CloudHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Key Findings Online Holiday Retail Approaching $125B Over 1 dollar in 6 of retail will be spent online Faster online growth will eat up share vs. offline Faster growth on holidays will concentrate sales on those days Max days between Thanksgiving and Christmas will boost sales Retailers Must Adapt to New Retail Rules Smartphones alone will be half of traffic, and a quarter of dollars Getting phone checkout right could mean $9 billion Serve your mobile app users: they will be even more valuable Online is not enough: storefronts will give retailers an advantage Pickup in store and fast shipping will be growing consumer asks Think beyond last-touch: 30% of people will use voice for some shopping behaviors Shoppers from social are spending less, consumer trust eroding Consumers Can Win Under the New Retail Rules Look inside for the hottest toys to buy and when the best moments are to buy them! Expect to spend a lot of time shopping enough to build a quarter of a pyramid Stay home on Thanksgiving use your smartphone Spend on yourself: $1 in $7 is on gifts for the buyer Give experiences they will be in demand this year Dont be embarrassed about where you shop (at least you arent shopping during a wedding) Know the best toys, speakers, TVs and consoles to give Dont forget to work off the 100 million calories of eggnogHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Online Holiday Shopping Season Approaches $125 Billion Online holiday shopping (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. is projected to be $124.1B in 2018, 14.8% more than online holiday spending in 2017. Since 2016, online holiday season revenue growth has been increasing, attributed to strong consumer confidence. Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace overall retail growth (14.8% online vs. 4.5% overall*). Nearly 1 dollar in 6 of retail will spent online in 2018*. Just how much money is $120B? You could fly nearly 500K people into space via Virgin Galactic. Methodology * The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 4.3% and 4.8% *The NRF Estimates $720B in total holiday spending this year, online and offline. SURVEY SAYS Consumers say theyll spend 57% of their holiday budget online, up from 55% last year.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Thanksgiving Weekend Growth Outpaces Season Thanksgiving weekend* online revenue growth will outpace holiday daily averages The Thanksgiving weekend, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, will generate $23.4B or nearly $1 in $5 (19%) of online holiday shopping. Cyber Monday is set to remain the overall leader with both the highest predicted revenue ($7.8B) and fastest growth (17.6% year-over-year). Glossary *The Thanksgiving shopping weekend is Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday SURVEY SAYS 44% of consumers prefer to do their online holiday shopping on big days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Holiday Boosted by More Days Between Thanksgiving & Xmas Retailers can thank the calendar for a revenue boost this year, since there will be 28 days between Cyber Monday and Xmas, compared to last years 27. With the longest time possible between Cyber Monday and Christmas, holiday spending will ramp up as early as possible this year, resulting in $284M of value for retailers. Consumers spend on average 26% more on the days after Cyber Week compared to the days prior. Every day is going to be a $1B dollar day, except for Dec 22 nd , 24 th and 25 th . Glossary Pre Cyber-Week: Nov 1 st Nov 17 th . Post Cyber-Week: Nov 28 th Dec 31stThree hours on Cyber Monday (7pm 10pm PST) will bring in as much revenue as an average day. The average visit to an online retailer during these hours is worth $9. Conversion rates reach their yearly peak at 7.3%. Over a quarter of revenue came from smartphones during these hours. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 The Golden Hours Of E-Commerce: 7pm-10pm PST on Cyber MondayHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Consumers in Larger Cities Prefer Cyber Monday over Black Friday In 2017 Holiday, 7 out of 10 cities had larger online retail sales on Cyber Monday compared to Black Friday. When Cyber Monday won, online sales average 20%+ higher than on Black Friday. Cyber Monday winning cities have the following characteristics They are twice as large as losing cities They are 10% less dependent on smartphones to drive revenue They have a 20% higher revenue per visit overallHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Almost Half of Retailer Visits Will Come from Phones Alone Shoppers will use smartphones more than any other device this season Smartphone visits will continue to steal share from desktop visits this season (48%), and drive close to one third of purchases (27%). Out of the three big days shoppers will be the most mobile on Thanksgiving Thanksgiving: 35% smartphone revenue, 53% desktop Black Friday: 30% smartphone revenue, 60% desktop Cyber Monday: 25% smartphone revenue, 66% desktopRetailers can increase their total holiday season revenue by 7.3% if mobile checkout is made easier. This is equivalent to earning a second Cyber Monday. The last purchasing step, from cart to order, happens over 20% less often on smartphones compared to desktop. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Smartphone Devices Hold a $9B Potential For Retailers This SeasonHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Mobile App Shoppers are 2X More Likely to Convert Overall conversion on mobile apps is 2X that of their website counterparts. This higher conversion is correlated with 2.4X time spent 30% better content relevancy 25% better return frequency 3X as many Mobile App Shoppers have made a purchase recently compared to traditional web shoppers. Tablets are losing their niche screen position between smartphones and laptops Laptops have gotten on average 1” smaller, while smartphones have gotten on average 1” larger. Share of visits from tablets has decreased by 30% in the last 4 years. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Bigger Smartphones & Smaller Laptops Leave Little Space For Tablets SURVEY SAYS Half of consumers say they have a 5-inch or bigger screen, up from 40% in 2016.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Recurring* Customers Abound in Large and Pure-Play* Retailers Online-only stores will rely more on recurring customers Brick-and-click retailers see 28% higher online conversion Large, pure-play retailers see 40% more of their revenue share coming from recurring* customers compared to their brick-and-click counterparts. Smaller retailers rely more on new customers Retailers with less than $100M in yearly online revenue see a much smaller share of their revenue coming from recurring customers. Glossary *Recurring customers: customers with at least 2 previous orders *Pure play: retailers that dont have any physical stores Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations. SURVEY SAYS 47% of shoppers have visited a store to browse a product they intend to buy online in the future.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Buy-Online-Pick-Up-In-Store is Outpacing Other Retail BOPIS orders have more than doubled since January (+119%) Top retailers (75th percentile) have seen 3.5X growth since January. Retailers need to up-sell-in-store BOPIS baskets tend to contain few items (1.9 vs 2.7 units). Glossary Brick-and-click: retailers that have an online store, and physical locations. SURVEY SAYS People are roughly as interested in picking up in-store as they are getting 1-day shipping, if they are buying a last-minute gift.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Voice Assistants Augment the Shopping Experience While not many smart speaker owners commit to placing orders over their device, they use them heavily to create lists, compare prices and initiate their product search.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Volume Coming From Social is Growing, But Its Quality Suffers The social marketing channel is inserting itself into retail through sheer volume. Share of traffic coming from social channels doubled in the last two years. The value of each social visit has decreased by 11% over the same period. Retailers are capitalizing on their loyal customers who go straight to their website. Direct visit value has grown over 30%. Glossary Visit Value: Revenue Per Visit Referring Domains: shopper helper sites like RetailMeNot SURVEY SAYS 25% fewer consumer consult social media for gift ideas compared to two years ago.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Ads Are Move Valued During the Holiday Season Display Ad CPMs rise about 11% a week, through the Cyber shopping week, and taper off as shipping cut off dates pass. Ranking of Advertising Prices by Region (Thanksgiving Giving Tues, Most expensive to least) 1. North East 2. South West 3. West 4. Mid West 5. South EastHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Good News Elections Are Only a Blip Consumers Heading into the Holiday Season and Midterm elections, we wanted to quantify the effect of elections on E-Commerce Bit of softening in total visits the day after the election (-6%), but visits restore by Friday (+8%). RPV on smartphones dips 15-20% on election day suggesting more browsing and lower conversion, but again recovered by the weekend.The biggest advantage of the retail juggernauts comes from consumers basket sizes The retail giants shared a similar conversion to their smaller counterparts, only 3% difference. Consumers make purchases that are 30% bigger at the large ($1B+) retailers websites. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Large Retailers ($1B+) Benefit From Large Baskets, Conversion is the Same Across the Board Glossary Recurring customers: customers with at least 2 previous ordersCustomers will spend the same amount over the first 6 months whether theyre acquired inside or outside the holiday season. Holiday customers are just as likely to return to a retailers website as the ones acquired throughout the rest of the year. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Customers Acquired in the Holiday Season Have the Same Long Term Value As Average CustomersHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Consumers Spend More On Shipping, And Return Their Purchases 18% More Often During the Holidays Consumers spent 5% more on shipping, and returned their purchases 18% more last holiday season compared to the rest of the year. +5% more was spent on shipping +18% more purchases returned SURVEY SAYS Consumers returned 10% of the gifts they received last holiday season.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Consider Staying Home on Thanksgiving Day More and more retailers are opening later or just staying closed on Thanksgiving Day. More and more people are skipping shopping on Thanksgiving in person, but are shopping on their phones. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Feel Free to Spend on Yourself People consistently say about 13% of what they spend during the holidays is on themselves. Though, of course, some people spend a little bit more. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Unwrap The Gift of Experience This Holiday Season Retail isnt the only industry thriving on Black Friday and Cyber Monday Consumers will also shop for experiences on these key dates, evidenced by lift in revenue on airline, cruise, and hotel sites. Cruise companies saw over 6X more revenue on Cyber Monday compared to the average Monday in 2017. SURVEY SAYS One third of consumers plan to spend more on experiences than things as gifts this Holiday SeasonHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Dont Be Embarrassed People Shop in Strange Places At least you didnt shop while at a wedding!HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Think About How and When to Buy the Hottest Items The hottest items will be going fast 1% of products drive 54% of online sales on average, but increase to 70% of sales during the holidays (30% lift).HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Video Game Consoles A Retro Showdown Video game consoles pick up on nostalgia Nintendo sold more consoles last season than XBOX and PlayStation combined, accounting for 58% of all video game consoles sold. Nintendos success was driven by The Switch which made up nearly two-thirds (63%) of all Nintendo consoles sold. 2018 Holiday Top Product PlayStation Classic Sony is following in Nintendos footsteps and bringing back its original PlayStation console.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 The Season of Smart Giving Sales of smart speakers will surpass conventional speakers this season Nearly half of speakers sold last holiday season had smart assistance enablement, 33% YoY growth from 2016 holiday. Nearly 50% of consumers will own a smart speaker after the holidays 32% of surveyed consumers already own a smart speaker, and 16% more are planning on getting one in the upcoming holiday season (ADI 2018 US Voice Assistant Survey). 45% of consumers who own a smart speaker are planning to purchase another one for themselves in the upcoming holiday season (ADI 2018 US Voice Assistant Survey).HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 4K TVs Will Reign This Holiday Season Nearly all TVs sold this Holiday will be 4K 83% of TVs sold during Holiday 2017 were 4K, 45% YoY growth. We can expect this trend to continue as 4K is now the standard. Wait until Thanksgiving Weekend to get the best deals on 4K Shoppers for 70”+ 4K TVs can save 25% during Thanksgiving weekend.HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS | 2018 Top Products: Toys Holiday Newbies Holiday Veterans Fingerlings, LoL Surprise, Hatchimals Hatchibabies Lego Sets (HP Great Wizard Hall) Ride-Ons (Jurassic World Jeep) furReal Pets Pomsies, Grumblies, Scruff-a-luvs Arcade1UP, Sony PlayStation Classic Super Smash Brothers Ultimate Fortnite Monopoly
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