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Lower growth in China and emerging signs of a slowdown in the US cloud the outlook for Asian property. More positively, interest rates ought to increase only slowly, holding funding costs low for developers and investors.Office rents should diverge in 2019, rising 8% in Singapore but falling 4% in Shenzhen. Singapore will stay attractive to occupiers despite rising rents, while CBD fringe areas of Hong Kong offer tenants amenity and lower rent.Logistics should grow further this year, notably in China, where low vacancy is pushing tenants into Tier 2 cities. Retail property is stable but faces long-run threats.After a likely 2% dip in 2018 from 2017s record, we expect total property deals to slip 5% in 2019. Demand is firm, and we still see investment potential in office, logistics and business park assets.Summary however, solid net absorption should generally prevent significant rental declines. In Shenzhen, we expect the vacancy rate to rise 14pp to 30%, and average rent to drop by 4%. In most of the other leading Chinese cities, we predict average rent growth of between about -1% and +1% this year. The impact of the heavy new supply in Shenzhen and Guangzhou should lessen from 2020 onwards.Tokyo: recent firm trends should persistRecent positive trends in the Tokyo office market should persist in 2019. Demand for office space has been firm for several years, with the total occupied area in CBDs expanding 2% year over year since February 2011. The key demand driver remains the trend for functional consolidation in more convenient locations within the Greater Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Net absorption should remain stable, tracking at around 2.7 % of existing supply or 150,000 tsubo (496,000 sq metres) on average per year.We expect increasing supply for late 20192021, with annual expansion averaging 2.8% of stock, but note that demolition of older buildings should continue at an average annual rate of 55,000 tsubo (181,00 sq metres) that has already eliminated about 45% of new supply over the past four years. We expect the overall vacancy level to remain at the current record low level of below 3%, reflecting past pent-up demand leading to near 100% pre-commitment for the 2019 supply, as well as strong demand from tenants for lower-grade and more affordable buildings, typically with monthly rents of below JPY30,000 per tsubo (USD80.7 per sq metre). Prime grade office rental growth should be higher in the short term; however, over the next five years we only predict growth of 0.8%, compared to CPI inflation of 1.1%.Seoul: vacancy escalates due to abundant supplyIn 2018, Seouls office market witnessed an increase in demand as flexible office operators leased major Grade A office buildings, often occupying larger spaces. Vigorous marketing and strong demand from flexible workspace operators absorbed long-term empty space in the CBD and the YBD districts. Thus, the average vacancy rate in Seoul stood at 9.5% in Q4 2018, a slight decrease from end-2017. Although we do not expect a demand recovery in the traditional industries due to the slow economy and sluggish employment in 2019, the IT industry including flexible workspace operators will lead office leasing demand in 2019. Looking ahead, while demand for Grade A office space in Seoul is recovering, the upward trend in vacancy in the market is likely to continue over the years due to abundant supply. It is proposed that the total new office supply for the CBD, YBD and GBD districts will be 9 million sq feet (0.9 million sqmetres) over 2019-2021, amounting to about 12% of the total stock of the three submarkets. In particular, it appears that there will be oversupply in the YBD over this period. This will potentially result in a significant increase in the vacancy rate for the overall office market in Seoul. Although some new completions should be owner-occupied, the relocation of headquarters from existing buildings to new completions will create backfilling space. We expect the average asking rent forl Grade A office space to rise by 2% from Q4 2018 to KRW27,939 (USD24.8)1 per sq metre per month in 2019, as most office buildings adjusted their rates similar to the CPI level from the beginning of 2019.We expect office space in Shenzhen and Guangzhou to rise by about 100% and 50% respectively over 20192022 from the level of end-2018.Overall vacancy in Tokyo should remain at the current record low level of below 3%, reflecting firm demand and low net supply._1 The average asking rent for Grade A office in Seoul is stated on a gross floor area basis. 5COLLIERS OUTLOOK ASIA | COMMERCIAL PROPERTY | 17 JANUARY 2019Hong Kong: likely dip in Central rents should provide relief; CBD fringe areas offer amenity and lower rentThe difference in rent levels between Hong Kongs CBD (Central/Admiralty) and Kowloon East (the designated CBD2) has increased in recent years to give Asias joint widest gap between core and non-core rents. An influx of mainland Chinese companies drove up Centrals rents to new records whereas ample supply in Kowloon East kept rents moderate. In 2019, we expect to see a shift in this pattern. Office supply in Central should grow slightly due to scaling-back by certain Chinese occupiers and modest surrendering of space by the financial sector after the recent financial market decline. We expect Central/Admiralty rents to drop by 3.8% in 2019, a healthy correction following growth of over 40% growth since early 2015. Central is still the preferred location for the financial sector and MNCs. On the other hand, rents in Kowloon East should benefit from active pre-leasing activities in 2018 and a lack of new supply in 2020.Over 2018, we highlighted Hong Kong as Asias #1 location for Finance and Law occupiers, and as an emerging location for Tech occupiers, in our “Top Locations” research series. (This work determined the best sites for tenants by assessing 5060 criteria relevant to location choice under three headings, socio-economic, property and human factors, across 16 cities.) In addition, our Hong Kong Occupier Survey showed that the main CBD fringe areas, namely Sheung Wan, Wanchai and Causeway Bay, were the most fluid markets in terms of tenants moving in and out of the area. In our view, these three CBD fringe areas, especially Wanchai, offer tenants a good combination of amenity and affordable rents. Wanchai offers large floorplates, affordable rents, easy accessibility, and good business facilities. Furthermore, it should stay popular for the next decade as transport links improve due to the completion of the Shatin to Central MTR link, and as new supply appears in Wanchai North after the relocation of government offices.Singapore to remain Asias firmest office marketIn 2018, average prime grade office rent in Singapore rose 15% to SGD9.43 (USD7.0) per sq foot per month as vacancy tightened to below 6%. Demand drivers were broad-based, with flexible workspace operators, technology and professional services firms continuing to expand their footprint.In 2019, with a lower but benign real GDP growth forecast of 2.5%, we think demand will stay firm; and the governments push to promote technology, innovation and R Chongqing less soWe expect sustained demand from retailers, e-commerce groups, 3PLs and manufacturers in the Chengdu logistics market. Vacancy and rent should thus be stable despite the launch of 0.5 million sq metres (5.38 mn sq ft) of new supply in 2019. In Chongqing, by contrast, the electronics and auto parts sectors, which are the top sources of demand for warehouse space, are under pressure; supply should also be heavy in 2019. Higher value-added technology will take time to replace these sectors as drivers of demand.Hong Kong: conversion demand drives the sectorWe expect rents and prices for Hong Kong industrial and logistics properties to grow by 8.4% and 5.4% respectively in 2019. This growth reflects lack of new supply and the governments revitalisation scheme, which is lowering total industrial stock. In contrast to other markets, continuous conversion and redevelopment of industrial buildings for office, retail, residential and hotel use are the chief drivers of rent and capital value growth in the sector.Singapore: logistics market stabilisingLogistics rents stabilised in Singapore in late 2018. We expect demand to improve in 2019, with e-commerce a key driver, as the market steadily absorbs the supply influx of 2017 and H1 2018. However, uncertainty arising from the US-China trade dispute and global slowdown will probably weigh on the sector. Warehouse vacancy is still high at over 10%. We predict new supply equal to 3.0% of current stock over 2019. We expect logistics rents to remain weak in H1 2019 before recovering 12% towards the year-end.India: logistics market set to take offThe logistics sector in India has received a major boost from the granting by the government of infrastructure status and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Infrastructure status enables logistics groups to access lower-cost credit, while the GST eliminates a patchwork of state-by-state boundaries, making way for the cost-effective Hub this is 34x recent historic averages, but the K11 Musea development in Kowloon accounts for about 80% of the increase. Newly launched transport links in the Greater Bay Area of South China should continue to boost tourist arrivals. However, the slowdown in Chinas economy may lower mainland tourists willingness to spend, particularly on luxury items.Singapore: rents on Orchard Road prime shopping centres should rise 12% in 2019Over the first nine months of 2018, Singapore retail rents edged down 2.2%. We expect the overall retail property market to continue finding its footing in 2019 with landlords seeking the optimum trade mix and digitalisation of their malls. Besides the continued challenge from e-commerce, we expect noticeable new retail space supply in 2019 (equivalent to 3.0% of current stock), spread out over the central region (excluding Orchard Road), city fringe and suburban areas. Supply should taper off significantly from 2020. In 2019, we expect ground floor retail rents in prime shopping centres along Orchard Road to rise by 12% YOY, due to the lack of new stock in Orchard Road, while prime floor rents in suburban Regional Centres should stabilise.Key long-term need is to devise new business modelsConditions in retail property remain uncertain. Besides the existential threat to traditional retailing from continuous growth in e-commerce, we predict ample new supply of retail space in several cities. Rent growth is either mildly positive or mildly negative in Shanghai, Beijing, Singapore and Hong Kong (where rents have stabilised after several years of declines). However, landlords and tenants face the long-run challenge of putting experience, entertainment and digital connection at the heart of their retail offering.East China: demand firm, but rising supply to hit rentShanghais retail property market remained active in 2018 with strong demand. Net absorption exceeded new supply and pulled down the vacancy rate to 7.6%, the lowest level in three years. Average rent declined modestly to RMB33.7 (USD4.96) per sq metre per day as most new supply was located in emerging areas with lower rent. In 2019, new supply should surge to 2.0 million sq metres (21 million sq feet), pushing up the vacancy rate to 13.0%. We expect 90% of the new supply to be located in non-prime retail areas such as New Bund, Xuhui Binjiang and North Bund where rents are low. This prospect should push average rent down by 3% to RMB32.6 (USD4.85) per sq metre per day.North China: mixed-sector brands should growFierce competition and firm demand encouraged active tenant adjustment in prime shopping malls in Beijing in 2018. The vacancy rate fell by 1.0pp to 2.1% despite new supply of 5.9 million sq metres (63.8 million sq feet). The average ground floor fixed rent in mid to high-end shopping malls rose 1.3% yoy to RMB827 (USD121) per sq metre per month. We predict 0.5 million sq metres (5.38 million sq feet) of new supply in 2019, with one-quarter in prime markets. Shopping malls with a higher proportion of experiential sectors are more likely to succeed as consumption trends become more sophisticated. Notably, mixed-sector brands are likely to show new growth in 2019. These conditions are likely to drive vacancy down about another 1.0pp and overall rent should be should rise marginally, by about 0.3%.Retail market conditions look stable in most cities now, and Hong Kong is recovering. However, supply is rising in the Chinese cities, and landlords and tenants need to devise new business models for the future.9COLLIERS OUTLOOK ASIA | COMMERCIAL PROPERTY | 17 JANUARY 2019INVESTMENT MARKET SET TO SLOW, BUT OPPORTUNITIES REMAINInvestment transactions in 2018 and 2019 likely to be slightly below 2017s high levelQ4 saw a sharp reversal in investment levels. However, we suspect that the Q4 total will be revised up as RCA collates further data. We currently assume that property transactions totalled USD122.0 billion in 2018, down 2% YOY. Looking ahead, we expect aggregate investment transactions to moderate due to the weaker growth outlook, modest upward pressure on interest rates, and the fact that office property assets in many cities now offer only a narrow spread over ten-year bonds (see Figure 4 below; Tokyo is a key exception, with a 3.5pp spread over bonds). For 2019, therefore, we assume a 5% decline in investment property transactions, to USD117.0 billion. Hong Kong looks especially likely to see a decline in investment deals this year: we predict a drop of 15%. An outcome of USD116 billion for Asia as a whole would be above the range between 2013 and 2016, and so would represent a modest slowdown, not a collapse.Between 2013 and 2016, aggregate transactions of completed properties in Asia ranged between about USD110 billion and USD115 billion, based on data from Real Capital Analytics (RCA). Despite controls on outbound capital from China, aggregate transactions grew by 14% in 2017 to what we believe was an all-time record of USD126.1 billion. Driven by robust growth and strong occupier markets, demand for investment property rose further over the first nine months of 2018: transactions of completed properties totalledUSD94.0 billion in the period, up by 6% YOY. The top three urban locations were Hong Kong, Seoul and Tokyo, which saw total transaction volumes rise 64%, 110% and 9% respectively. However, other centres saw activity decline, notably Shanghai and Yokohama with drops of 44% and 67% respectively.Preliminary data from RCA show that aggregate transactions for 2018 as a whole fell by 8%, to USD116.0 billion. At first sight, this figure suggests thatFig 3: Investment Property Transactions in Asia by City (USD million)Source: RCA. Note: Transacted pr
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