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Global Networks, Global CitizenWelcome to the 2018 edition of Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF). Commercial aviation is already the most global of businesses. Offi cial Airline Guide data shows that the global network connects all countries in the world: 3,190 cities and 3,250 airports. Connectivity between these airports, which has doubled since the early nineteen-eighties, continues to grow, and more of the worlds people from both emerging and mature economies use aviation as part of their lives. Global network travel encourages more people to see themselves as global citizens. In the same way as access to the internet and social media provoke curiosity and interest in other people and other places, physically travelling between cities and countries satisfi es that curiosity in allowing people to meet and understand each other. And that understanding is one of the most powerful forces for good in the world. One only needs to look at the “propensity to fl y” section of this book and the accompanying GMF 2018 App to see how air travel can grow further. It is particularly noticeable in the emerging countries. In India for example the propensity to fl y is 0.1 trips per capita today but by 2037 will rise to 0.4, or roughly four times greater. A BBC survey* questioned 20,000 people from 18 countries and found that 56% of the people surveyed coming from emerging countries saw themselves fi rst and foremost as global citizens. In India this fi gure was 67%. The BBC suggests this is partly because “the world as a whole is becoming more prosperous and air travel is becoming more affordable to the rising middle classes.” This is one of the common themes in our Global Market Forecast when we explore the drivers for growth in aviation. We hope that you fi nd the 2018 Global Market Forecast informative and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards this goal. Dont forget you can download our App to your smartphone. It complements the forecast and enables you to have facts, fi gures and insights at your fi ngertips wherever you go. If all you want are the numbers, you can download an excel sheet from airbus. Introduction I am not an Athenian or a Greek, but a citizen of the world. Socrates 003 Global Networks, Global Citizens01 Executive summary 007 057 Asia-Pacifi c 071 Europe 079 North America 089 Middle East 097 Latin America32 Advanced Economies; 120 Developing Economies 7.8% 3.9% 3.9% 1.9% 51.2% 61.5% 33.2% 5.3% 15.3% 16.0%AIR TRANSPORT LEADING INDICATORS REMAIN GREEN SUMMER OF 2018 A short-term outlook would not be complete without a view on where we are in the overall cycle. At Airbus, we monitor leading indicators to highlight any trends that may indicate an industry issue; some of these are shown in this years GMF. As can be seen, positive market conditions, which have been in place for several years, remain at the time of writing in the summer of 2018. However, the movement of oil prices and geo-political stability are both areas which will need to be monitored. EMERGING REGIONS AND ECONOMIES EXPECTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGE SHARE OF NEXT 20 YEARS WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTHSource: IHS Economics, AirbusTraffic light code: : Positive : Concerns : Negative Trend indication: : unchanged : improving : moderating INDICATOR STATUS TREND COMMENT Economy Despite some uncertainties, global economic growth is expected to pick up from +3.1% in 2017 to +3.2% in 2018 and +3.3% in 2019 led by the United States, the Eurozone and emerging markets Passenger traffic Strong passenger traffic growth in the 1 quarter of 2018, especially for airlines from emerging markets Rising load factors, up 1 percentage point since the beginning of 2018 Freight traffic Freight traffic expected to continue to grow throughout 2018 Finance Low level of tension in finance and stock markets Interest rates still at low levels Aircraft Stored aircraft remaining at historical low levels Passenger aircraft productivity continues to improve Airlines Airline profitability expected to continue but down from record levels as a consequence of increased jet fuel and labour costs 017 Demand for air travel 016 Demand for air travel0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2037 2032 2027 2022 2017 2012 2007 2002 Advanced economies Private Consumption (trillion US$) x1.5 History Forecast 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2037 2032 2027 2022 2017 2012 2007 2002 Million Share Middle Class* History Forecast 31% 40% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Middle Class* 2.1 billion 3 billion 5 billion Upper Class* Middle Class* Lower Class* Share Middle Class Emerging economies Private Consumption (trillion US$) x2.4 History Forecast 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2037 2032 2027 2022 2017 2012 2007 2002PRIV A TE CONSUMPTION EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO EXPLAIN AIR TRANSPORT GROWTHSource: IHS Economics, AirbusMIDDLE CLASS TO ALMOST DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARSSource: Oxford Economics, Airbus A driver for private consumption is the “wealth effect”, with wealth, and an increase in disposable income also important elements of peoples desire and ability to fly. The evolution of the middle classes is an excellent proxy for this relationship. In 2002, about a quarter of the worlds population could be described as “middle class”, today its around 40% and by 2037, is forecast to be well over 50% or some five billion people, all in the pool of regular or potential new flyers in the future. Airline business models also evolve over time to meet the needs of customers, to take advantage of opportunity and to respond to their competition. There is no doubt that whilst not new, the low-cost model has helped to deliver additional growth, through the provision of low fares and new city pairs largely, but not exclusively, to the leisure market. Businesses are also benefiting from the new routings and additional connectivity the model delivers. In recent years, the low-cost model itself has evolved with ultra-low cost and long-haul low-cost variants growing the number of seats they offer. Middle Class expected to represent 57% of total population by 2037 ADVANCED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES *Households with yearly income between $0 and $20,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices *Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices *Households with yearly income above $150,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices 018 019 Demand for air travel Demand for air travel0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Seats offered by Low-Cost Carriers with operations above 2,500nm (Million) 11% 30% 40% Share in 2017 Other Europe - Europe Africa - Europe Asia/Pacic - Europe Asia/Pacic - North America Latin America - North America Europe - Latin America Asia/Pacic - Middle East Europe - North America Asia/Pacic - Asia/PacicAS OTHER BUSINESS MODELS, TRADITIONAL LOW COST CARRIERS HAVE BEEN DIVERSIFYING OVER THE LAST YEARSSource: OAG, Airbus Business models defined based on 2017 operations Long-haul low-cost operations are fairly concentrated today, largely on routes within Asia Pacific and across the Atlantic, with about 70% of the seats offered by LCCs (on routes over 2,500nm) on these flows. This concentration and the relatively small share of overall seats offered suggests there is still opportunity to grow this model. STRONG ACCELERA TION OF LONG-HAUL OPERATIONS BY LOW COST CARRIERS OVER THE LAST 5 YEARSSource: OAG, Airbus GMF, Business models defined based on 2017 operations 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Seats offered evolution by business model (Billion, All distances considered) Other Ultra Low Cost Low Cost Carrier with long haul ights Low Cost Carrier Full Service Carrier 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Seats offered evolution by business model (Billion, All distances considered) Other Ultra Low Cost Low Cost Carrier with long haul ights Low Cost Carrier Full Service Carrier 021 Demand for air travel 020 Demand for air travel Governments policies around open skies, visa and immigration have long infl uenced demand for aviation. Understanding the benefi ts aviation can bring in terms of business and tourism has meant that these policies have relaxed over time stimulating demand. Two recent government driven initiatives also look set to help stimulate air travel both in their own countries but also to others. In India, the Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik Regional Connectivity scheme or UDAN-RCS is a government initiative designed to make domestic fl ying more accessible to the Indian population, by making it more affordable and convenient, whilst at the same time stimulating economic growth. In the fi rst round, RCS-1, a total of 128 routes were awarded to 5 players. The Government awarded more than 300 routes to airlines and helicopter operators under RCS-2 on January 24 , 2018. Whilst being largely regional in focus greater connectivity will also feed additional passengers to the larger aviation centres creating a need for larger aircraft types. With a number of these new routes also expected to grow and in time needing for example single-aisle types. Already today, Letters of Award from the Airport Authority of India detail a number of routes, many with a capacity requirement for 180 seats. In China, the much discussed Belt and Road initiative seems to have started to stimulate higher air traffi c growth to and from China for some of the countries connected to the initiative. For example, Kenya and Vietnam both have higher traffi c growth to and from China for the period 2013-2017 than the previous fi ve years. Some estimates list the Belt and Road Initiative as one of the largest infrastructure and investment projects in history, covering more than 68 countries, including 65% of the worlds population and 30% of the global GDP as of 2017, with this scale it is likely the initiative will stimulate further aviation growth. RECENT GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES STIMULATING AIR TRAVEL Indias UDAN-RCS initiative designed to make domestic fl ying affordable and convenient. 022 023 Demand for air travel Demand for air travel
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