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A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Going global Key corporate trends in developing marketsThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M OECD comprises 34 member countries; World data based on 120 countries (excluding countries with limited data coverage). Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Private consumption (% real change, year on year) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 OECD Non-OECD World aggregate 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019GOING GLOBAL KEY CORPORATE TRENDS IN DEVELOPING MARKETS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 3 New car sales in non-OECD countries will reach 48.1m by 2022, compared with 31.5m in the richer 34-country OECD bloc. These non-OECD countries will account for almost half of global retail sales by then, as well as nearly 60% of domestic energy consumption. They will be responsible for close to half of global health spending, and account for nearly three-quarters of global mobile subscribers. Moreover, with the spread of mobile technologies, will come an opportunity to sell financial products to people who have never had a bank account. Armed with local knowledge and strong connections with domestic businesses and officials, companies such as Chinas JAC Motors or Qatars Ooredoo have been quick to capitalise on the opportunities in developing countries such as Pakistan, Tunisia, Myanmar and Vietnam. Their products are improving rapidly as they invest in or imitate the latest innovations. Their ability to raise financing to fund their ambitions has also increased as investors confidence has risen. Many established global companies, such as General Motors (US) or Tesco (UK), have had their own developing-market strategies in place for several years. Yet they are finding that these new rivals are an increasing challenge to their ambitions. In some cases, they have even been forced into a partial retreatas with Uber (US) in China, or Vodafone (UK) in India. In others, they have decided to establish a partnership or joint venture, but have struggled to retain the upper hand in the deal. As their ambitions develop, these emerging companies will face their own challenges. Pressure on local currencies and fluctuating commodity prices will add to existing roadblocks such as policy inaction and political instability. Ongoing global trade disputes will force them to reassess their investment plans and supply chains. They will also need to see off competition from their established rivals, many of which still have deeper pockets, better products or greater expertise. They will need all their ingenuity and local knowledge to survive this intensifying competition. Note. World based on 52 largest countries. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Growth in developing countries, 2018-22 (Compound annual growth rate) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Non-OECD World aggregate Mobile subscriptions (000) Gross domestic energy consumption (ktoe) Healthcare spending (US$ m) Retail sales (US$ m) Passenger car registrations (000) Bank loans (US$ m)GOING GLOBAL KEY CORPORATE TRENDS IN DEVELOPING MARKETS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 4 Kamaz: courting developing markets Russias automotive market has rebounded since a slump in 2015, but the pace of growth is decelerating. Seeking greener pastures abroad in order to counter slower growth in the Russian truck market, Kamaz, Russias largest truckmaker, is turning to developing markets such as Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam. The global commercial vehicle market has so far been dominated by Swedish companies such as Volvo Trucks and Scania, but Kamaz has geared up to take over in countries where big players from OECD nations have failed to solidify their presence. In August 2018 the company set up a subsidiary in Indonesia to import and sell its trucks in the country. It has inked deals to enter India, and in 2017 made inroads into South Africa. Alongside heavy trucks, Kamaz has a stronghold in the Russian market for agricultural vehicles such as tractors. It is now seeking to replicate this success abroad. To keep up with its global competitors, the truckmaker is also investing in newer technology in automation and industrial robotics. In the domestic market, we expect Kamaz to stay head of its local rival, GAZ, which has been slapped with US sanctions owing to its close association with a Russian oligarch. However, growth in Russia will slow in the long term as the economy returns to normality following the 2018 FIFA World Cup, which temporarily boosted infrastructure and, in turn, truck sales. A wider industry slowdown is likely to temper Kamazs growth plans. The company, which sold over 33,000 trucks in Russia compared with 5,000 internationally in 2017, is still heavily dependent on local sales for growth. Automotive Source: Kamaz. (a) Attributable to Western sanctions imposed on Russia and depreciation of the rouble. Kamaz PJSC (Rb m) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net prot; right scale -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Revenue; left scale (a) -2,383GOING GLOBAL KEY CORPORATE TRENDS IN DEVELOPING MARKETS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 5 JAC: an unexpected champion At a time when most Chinese automakers are entering into joint ventures at home with global automakers, JAC Motors is expanding into markets outside China to boost its business. A high- end carmaker, the company has started manufacturing many of its vehicles in countries such as Kazakhstan, Algeria, Vietnam and Paraguay. This has helped JAC to maintain margins amid the rising costs of raw materials such as rubber and iron in China. JAC plans to continue cutting costs by setting up factories in Mexico to export to neighbouring countries in Latin America. By increasing its sales focus in Latin America, JAC is ensuring that Mexico remains a low-cost production hub in case potential modifications to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) jeopardise exports to the US. Investment in new-energy vehicles (NEVs) has helped JAC to shrug off the effect of lower electric vehicle subsidies and the rollback of certain tax policies in China. To counter sluggish domestic sales the company is investing heavily in NEVs in developing markets such as Pakistan. It also has plans to enter Argentina in 2018. However, JAC also remains focused on retaining its place in its domestic market, notwithstanding further policy changes that could hit sales. In May 2018 the automaker formed Chinas first NEV joint venture with Germanys Volkswagen to produce an electric sports utility vehicle (SUV). It is also racing to launch an autonomous vehicle in 2019 in a tie-up with Baidu, a Chinese technology giant. Source: JAC. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp Ltd (JAC): revenue (Rmb bn) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2015 2016 2017GOING GLOBAL KEY CORPORATE TRENDS IN DEVELOPING MARKETS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 6 Grupo Bimbo: breaking bread across the world After securing a strong market share in its home country of Mexico (the second-largest retail market in Latin America), Grupo Bimbo, which makes bread, cookies, pastries and other baked goods, including Blanco bread and Coronado caramel spreads, is pushing into new territories. It is moving across the Atlantic Ocean, and has recently made key acquisitions and signed partnerships in Europe and Asia. It estimates that its products sell in over 20 countries across the Americas, Europe and Asia. In 2017 the company acquired East Balt Bakeries, a US-based maker of muffins and tortillas with a presence in 11 countries; and Mankattan, a Chinese bakery. Grupo Bimbo has also invested in India, France, Portugal and Russia by picking up stakes in several local bakeries. In 2017 it took a 65% stake in Ready Roti India, an Indian bakery. Since 2015 Grupo Bimbo has also acquired Panrico SAU, a European bakery; and the Argentine bakery business of General Mills, a US food company. The company has successfully expanded into several emerging markets through a strategy that combines introducing its existing brands in new markets and acquiring local brands. The company has made more than 20 acquisitions in the past ten years while trying to maintain lean operations. However, after struggling to boost operating margins, it completed an organisational restructuring at Bimbo Bakeries USA, leading to 600 job cuts in June 2018. With the Mexican peso still volatile against the US dollar, further restructuring cannot be ruled out. Consumer goods Source: Grupo Bimbo. Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (Ps bn) Revenue; left scale Net prot; right scale 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017GOING GLOBAL KEY CORPORATE TRENDS IN DEVELOPING MARKETS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 7 Majid Al Futtaim: retail therapy Formed in the early 1990s, UAE-based Majid Al Futtaim has risen sharply to become a major player in retail in the Middle East and North Africa. The company has reported significant revenue growth since 1995, and in the past few years it has anchored itself in its domestic market through strategic investments. At the same time, it has been expanding in neighbouring countries. An exclusive licensing agreement with an older and more established French retailer, Carrefour, underpins the companys international plans. Its takeover of complete ownership in Majid Al Futtaim Hypermarkets in 2013 was a landmark in its growth strategy (until then, the chain was run as a joint venture with Carrefour). The deal extended Majid Al Futtaims licence agreement with Carrefour for another 12 years and to an additional 19 countries. It has since expanded both its own retail stores as well as its network of Carrefour stores. Majid Al Futtaim currently has a presence in 13 countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE. Armed with an exclusive licence to operate Carrefour stores in 38 countries and a sturdy cash flow from its domestic activities, it has plenty of room to grow further. It has been spreading roots in neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Egypt, with plans to launch 100 Carrefour stores in the latter country. The retailer is banking on an improvement in the Egyptian economy to boost sales, but further growth could be stifled by geopolitical and economic risks in the Middle East, as well as the continued depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar. Source: Majid Al Futtaim. Majid Al Futtaim (Dh bn) Revenue; left scale Net prot; right scale 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014
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