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Christopher Hooton, Ph.D.Internet AssociationMeasuring The U.S. Internet Sector: 2019Table of ContentsExecutive Summary 3Introduction 5Overview Of The Internet Sector 6Defining The Internet 6Identifying Internet Industries 6Methodology 7Updating And Converting IAs NAICS Codes 7Growth Scenarios 11Multipliers And Economic Measurements 11Results 12The Economic Footprint Of The Internet 12Internet Sector Growth 13Investment 14Comparing Internet Sector with Other Sectors 15Robustness Tests 16Conclusion 19Understanding The Value Of The InternetinternetassociationThe unified voice of the internet economy 21. Executive SummaryIA presents new estimates on the size of the internet sector in the U.S. economy as of 2018, the most recent year data is available. The results show the internet sector contributed 10.1 percent of U.S. GDP and 4.0 percent of jobs (non-farm employment). IA estimates the internet sector supported another over 13.1 million indirect jobs and that the sector invested over $60 billion into the economy. The report also lays out a new methodology that IA will use to conduct these estimates on an annual basis going forward. Table 1 provides a summary of key results.Table 1: Summary ResultsNational References Volumes Percent of U.S. Total2018 National GDP (Millions) $20,494,100 100%2018 National Employment 150,275,000 100%Internet Sector Estimates2018 Internet Sector Value-Added (Millions) $2,070,642 10.1%2018 Internet Sector Direct Employment 5,948,115 4.0%2018 Internet Sector Indirect Supported Jobs 13,084,566 8.7%1.1 Finding #1 - The internet sector contributed $2.1 trillion to U.S. GDP.IA estimates the internet sector contributed $2.1 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2018, which equates to 10.1 percent of U.S. GDP. This is more than twice the output volume than the internet contributed to the economy in 2014, which was approximately $966 billion. 1.2 Finding #2 - The internet sector created 6 million direct jobs to the U.S. economy, double the number in 2014.Direct employment levels in the internet sector have grown dramatically since 2014, increasing to 6 million direct jobs in 2018. This is equal to about 4 percent of U.S. employment. Output to employment ratios have historically been lower in the industry, given the high productivity and efficiency of the sector (based on its use of cutting-edge technologies). But the internet sector is now maturing and rapidly creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs. 1.3 Finding #3 - The internet sector supported another 13.1 million indirect jobs in other areas of the economy.Apart from direct jobs, the internet sector supported another 13.1 million jobs in the U.S., the equivalent of roughly 8.7 percent of total U.S. employment. 1.4 Finding #4 - The internet sector supports 2 indirect jobs for every 1 direct job it creates.With over 13 million indirect jobs compared to 6 million direct jobs, the internet sector demonstrates strong positive downstream effects for the economy.1.5 Finding #5 - The internet sector has doubled in size twice in the past decade.The internet sector has undergone staggering growth since 2007. The results of this study show the internet sector has doubled in size (in terms of value-added and employment) since 2014. That builds on the previous growth between 2007 and 2012 when it doubled as well. Total internet sector revenues increased at an annual compound growth rate of 23.4 percent between 2012-2018. Internet sector value-added contributions grew by approximately 470 percent since 2007.Understanding The Value Of The InternetinternetassociationThe unified voice of the internet economy 31.6 Finding #6 - The internet sector grew nine times faster than the U.S. economy as a whole between 2012-2018.The growth of the internet sector far surpasses national growth. The U.S. total GDP grew by 41.8 percent between 2007-2018, from $14.5 trillion to $20.5 trillion. The internet sector grew about 372 percent, from about $438.8 billion in value-added to about $2.1 trillion, nine times faster than total GDP during that period, For additional comparison, the Information sector and Manufacturing sector grew by 59.3 percent and 26.6 percent, respectively, over the same period. The internet sector, therefore, grew more than six times faster than the Information sector and 14 times faster than the Manufacturing sector in that period. Figure 1 and Figure 2 illustrate this growth.1.7 Finding #7 - The internet sector invested over $60 billion into the economy in 2018.U.S. internet sector companies invested $64 billion in the U.S. economy through capital expenditures. IAs members alone invested over $42 billion.1.8 Finding #8 - The internet sector is now the fourth largest sector in the U.S. economy.The internet sectors $2.1 trillion in value-added makes up 10.1 of U.S. GDP. That puts it as the fourth largest economic sector in the country behind only “Real estate, rental, and leasing,” “Public Administration (Government),” and “Manufacturing.”Understanding The Value Of The InternetThe unified voice of the internet economy internetassociation42. IntroductionInternet Associations founding in 2012 signaled the explicit recognition of the internets importance for the United States economy. As a trade association serving as the unified voice of the internet economy, IA provided new focus and guidance on how we understand the internets value. IAs 2015 report,1“Measuring the U.S. Internet Sector,”(referred to going forward as the “2015 report”) detailed the economic contributions of the internet in the U.S. and demonstrated the internets new (at that time), but established role as an economic sector. It was a novel, but overdue look at the internets economic role and it helped us realize just how far the internet had evolved since its infancy in the late 20th century.The 2015 report also showed how far behind we were in terms of accurately measuring the internet. We used data from 2007 and 2012 to develop estimates of the U.S. internet sectors economic footprint for 2014. We were able to use data that were several years old to forecast the sectors economic contributions, but the methodology only allowed for accurate updates approximately every five years.2It has consequently been four years since we first released our flagship economic report and seven years since we have had up-to-date data for new estimates.To address these challenges, we have developed an adapted approach to its sector measurement methodology that will now allow for annual updates to its U.S. internet sector footprint estimates. The method follows the same principles and basic approach as our 2015 inaugural report, thus preserving methodological consistency. However, our approach now utilizes big data sources, blending its standard input-output approach with a microeconomic dataset to provide a timelier picture of the internet economy. In short, we can now produce estimates on the size of the internet sector every year and with only a delay of approximately six months.The results are exciting and staggering. The internet sector was responsible for approximately $2.1 trillion of value-added, or 10.1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018. The value-added 1Stephen Siwek at Economists Incorporated authored the report on behalf of IA.2This relates to the 2015 reports methodology, which relied on the Bureau of Economic Analysiss (BEA) five-year comprehensive updates to its Benchmark Input-Output Accounts. These occurred in 2007, 2012, and 2017; however, the 2017 data releases lag by one to several years.3Behind only “Real estate, rental, and leasing”, “Public Administration (Government)”, and “Manufacturing.”contributions continued the same incredible growth rates of previous years, more than doubling in volume between 2012 and 2018 (similar to its doubling between 2007 to 2012). The internet contributed approximately six million jobs to the American economy, about 4.0 percent of total employment in 2018 and more than twice the number in 2014. And internet companies spent over $64 billion on capital investments in the U.S. economy, providing a key source of investment into the economy.These new numbers provide an up-to-date benchmark for the internet sectors economic contributions, but they also tell a more important story. The internet sectors importance to the U.S. economy continues to increase rather than leveling. The growth of new industries typically lessens over time. They grow rapidly at first, but then move into marginal year-over-year increases as the sector matures. We are not seeing this same pattern with the internet sector. The internet sector has doubled in terms of economic output twice in approximately the last decade alone. This is not a result of our new measurement approach (the numbers remain consistent between methodologies as we show later). Nor are there signs of it slowing down. Internet sector companies continue to drive economic growth in the U.S. while simultaneously encouraging older industries to innovate and update in order to compete. The result is that the internet is now the fourth largest economic sector and a central engine of the U.S. economy.3This report, Measuring the U.S. Economic Sector: 2019, provides our newest measurements on the economic contributions of the internet for 2018 and formally kicks off our new and improved flagship report. We will follow this years report with annual updates going forward to provide crucial information to policymakers, researchers, and the general public about the value and contributions of the internet. We invite you to read the report and look forward to providing regular updates in the future. The internet sector was responsible for approximately $2.1 trillion of value-added, or 10.1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2018.Understanding The Value Of The InternetinternetassociationThe unified voice of the internet economy 53. Overview Of The Internet Sector3.1 Defining The InternetThe starting point for understanding the internet sector is to distinguish it from the internet as a technology. The Cambridge Dictionary defines the internet as “the large system of connected computers around the world that allows people to share information and communicate with each other.”4The technology is ubiquitous, with nine out of 10 U.S. adults and 98 percent of those between the ages of 18-50 using the internet and 73 percent of adults with access to high-speed broadband service at home.5Individuals and organizations use the internet to conduct a wide range of activities that produce value and which comprise the internet economy (or digital economy).6The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development defines the internet economy as “the full range of our economic, social and cultural activities supported by the Internet and related information and communications technologies”7(OECD 2008). The BEA recently estimated that the digital economy accounted for approximately $1.35 trillion (6.9 percent) of GDP and 5.1 million (3.3 percent) of U.S. employment in 2017.8The core of the internet economy is the internet sector, which consists of businesses that utilize 4dictionary.cambridge/dictionary/english/internet5Pew Research Center. “Internet/Broadband Fact Sheet.” February 5, 2018. Available at: pewinternet/fact-sheet/internet-broadband/6Researchers and stakeholders often use these terms interchangeably. 7OECD. 2008. The Seoul Declaration for the Future of the Internet Economy, Ministerial session, 18 June 2008, Available at: oecd/internet/consumerpolicy/40839436.pdf (accessed 29 March 2012).8BEA. 2019. “Measuring the Digital Economy: An Update Incorporating Data from the 2018 Comprehensive Update of the Industry Economic Accounts.” Online Report. Bureau of Economic Analysis.9See internetassociation/our-members/ for a current list of IA member companies10The Census Bureau defines NAICS as, “the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy.” See: census.gov/eos/naics/online commerce for their primary lines of business. This narrower group leaves out traditional companies that may engage in limited online activity (e.g. a shoemaker having an online store) and is the group that IA represents on matters of public policy.9We define the internet sector as the set of businesses engaged primarily in the production, distribution, and or processing of products and services through online platforms and applications. In its 2015 report, we estimated the internet sector contributed approximately $1 trillion in value-added to U.S. GDP and 3 million jobs to total national employment.3.2 Identifying Internet IndustriesResearchers have typically measured both the internet economy and internet sector using a macroeconomic input-output approach. This process relies on a group of experts selecting the specific industries within a country that are relevant to the internet and then identifying the specific business receipts within those industries that are relevant to the internet. It relies on the use of North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS),10which consists of 2- to 6-digit hierarchical codes and which classifies all economic/business activity in the U.S. into one of 403 unique 6-digit codes. These 6-digit codes are aggregated up into larger groupings. For example, a 6-digit code forms a part of a 2-digit code the last four digits identify the subcategory of the 2-digit code. We identified eight specific NAICS subindustries (as well as a set of “Selected Services - E-Commerce”) that comprised the internet sector in its 2015 report based on the 2012 NAICS vintage. Table 2 shows the subindustries identified in the 2015 report, recreating the previous reports Table A-4.The starting point for understanding the internet sector is to distinguish it from the internet as a technology.Understanding The Value Of The InternetinternetassociationThe unified voice of the internet economy 6Table 2: NAICS Industry Classifications That Include Internet ActivitiesNAICS Code Industry TitleProduct Line Receipts518210 Data processing, hosting and related services5171 Wired Telecommunications carriers5172 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite)517919 All Other Telecommunications51713 Internet publishing and broadcasting and Web Search Portals54151 Computer Systems Design and related servicesE-Commerce Retail45411 Electronic shopping454112 Electronic AuctionSelected ServicesVarious Selected Services E-CommerceSource: Internet Association; categories from U.S. Census Bureau, American Fact FinderWe then used these codes to identify relevant gross receipts from specific Product Line Statistics by Industry from national accounts data. The s
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