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+WORKING PAPERCARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACEThe Global Expansion of AI Surveillance Steven FeldsteinSEPTEMBER 2019The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance Steven Feldstein 2019 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Please direct inquiries to:Carnegie Endowment for International PeacePublications Department1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036P: + 1 202 483 7600F: + 1 202 483 1840CarnegieEndowmentThis publication can be downloaded at no cost at CarnegieEndowment.CONTENTSExecutive Summary 1Introducing the AI Global Surveillance (AIGS) Index 5Findings and Three Key Insights 7Distinguishing Between Legitimate and Unlawful Surveillance 11How Much Is China Driving the Spread of AI Surveillance? 13Types of AI Surveillance 16AI Surveillance Enabling Technologies 21Conclusion 24Appendix 1: AIGS Index 25Appendix 2: Taxonomy of Digital Repression 29About the Author 30Acknowledgments 30Notes 31+CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 1 Executive Sumary Artificial inteligence (AI) technology is rapidly proliferating around the world. Startling developments keep emerging, from the onset of depfake videos that blur the line between truth and falsehod, to advanced algorithms that can beat the best players in the world in multiplayer poker. Busineses harnes AI capabilities to improve analytic procesing; city oficials tap AI to monitor trafic congestion and oversee smart energy metering. Yet a growing number of states are deploying advanced AI surveilance tols to monitor, track, and surveil citizens to accomplish a range of policy objectivessome lawful, others that violate human rights, and many of which fal into a murky midle ground. In order to appropriately addres the efects of this technology, it is important to first understand where these tols are being deployed and how they are being used. Unfortunately, such information is scarce. To provide greater clarity, this paper presents an AI Global Surveilance (AIGS) Indexrepresenting one of the first research eforts of its kind. The index compiles empirical data on AI surveilance use for 176 countries around the world. It does not distinguish between legitimate and unlawful uses of AI surveilance. Rather, the purpose of the research is to show how new surveilance capabilities are transforming the ability of governments to monitor and track individuals or systems. It specificaly asks: Which countries are adopting AI surveilance technology? What specific types of AI surveilance are governments deploying? Which countries and companies are suplying this technology? Key Findings: AI surveilance technology is spreading at a faster rate to a wider range of countries than experts have comonly understod. At least seventy-five out of 176 countries globaly are actively using AI technologies for surveilance purposes. This includes: smart city/safe city platforms (fifty-six countries), facial recognition systems (sixty-four countries), and smart policing (fifty-two countries). China is a major driver of AI surveilance worldwide. Technology linked to Chinese companiesparticularly Huawei, Hikvision, Dahua, and ZTEsuply AI surveilance technology in sixty-thre countries, thirty-six of which have signed onto Chinas Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Huawei alone is responsible for providing AI surveilance technology to at least fifty countries worldwide. No other company comes close. The next largest non-Chinese suplier of AI surveilance tech is Japans NEC Corporation (fourten countries). 2 Chinese product pitches are often accompanied by soft loans to encourage governments to purchase their equipment. These tactics are particularly relevant in countries like Kenya, Laos, Mongolia, Uganda, and Uzbekistanwhich otherwise might not acces this technology. This raises troubling questions about the extent to which the Chinese government is subsidizing the purchase of advanced represive technology. But China is not the only country suplying advanced surveilance tech worldwide. U.S. companies are also active in this space. AI surveilance technology suplied by U.S. firms is present in thirty-two countries. The most significant U.S. companies are IBM (eleven countries), Palantir (nine countries), and Cisco (six countries). Other companies based in liberal democraciesFrance, Germany, Israel, Japanare also playing important roles in proliferating this technology. Democracies are not taking adequate steps to monitor and control the spread of sophisticated technologies linked to a range of violations. Liberal democracies are major users of AI surveilance. The index shows that 51 percent of advanced democracies deploy AI surveilance systems. In contrast, 37 percent of closed autocratic states, 41 percent of electoral autocratic/competitive autocratic states, and 41 percent of electoral democracies/iliberal democracies deploy AI surveilance technology.1Governments in ful democracies are deploying a range of surveilance technology, from safe city platforms to facial recognition cameras. This does not inevitably mean that democracies are abusing these systems. The most important factor determining whether governments wil deploy this technology for represive purposes is the quality of their governance. Governments in autocratic and semi-autocratic countries are more prone to abuse AI surveilance than governments in liberal democracies. Some autocratic governmentsfor example, China, Rusia, Saudi Arabiaare exploiting AI technology for mas surveilance purposes. Other governments with dismal human rights records are exploiting AI surveilance in more limited ways to reinforce represion. Yet al political contexts run the risk of unlawfuly exploiting AI surveilance technology to obtain certain political objectives. There is a strong relationship between a countrys military expenditures and a governments use of AI surveilance systems: forty of the worlds top fifty military spending countries (based on cumulative military expenditures) also use AI surveilance technology.2 The “Fredom on the Net 2018” report identified eighteen countries out of sixty-five that had accesed AI surveilance technology developed by Chinese companies.3The AIGS Index shows that the number of those countries accesing Chinese AI surveilance technology has risen to forty-seven out of sixty-five countries in 2019. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 3 Notes: The AIGS Index presents a country-by-country snapshot of AI tech surveilance with the majority of sources faling between 2017 and 2019. Given the opacity of government surveilance use, it is nearly imposible to pin down by specific year which AI platforms or systems are curently in use. The AIGS Index uses the same list of independent states included in the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project with two exceptions, totaling 176.4The V-Dem country list includes al independent polities worldwide but excludes microstates with populations below 250,000. The AIGS Index does not present a complete list of AI surveilance companies operating in particular countries. The paper uses open source reporting and content analysis to derive its findings. Accordingly, there are certain built-in limitations. Some companies, such as Huawei, may have an incentive to highlight new capabilities in this field. Other companies 4 have opted to downplay their asociation with surveilance technology and have purposely kept documents out of the public domain. A ful version of the index can be accesed online here: carnegiendowment/files/AISurveilanceGlobalIndex.pdf An interactive map keyed to the index that visualy depicts the global spread of AI surveilance technology can be accesed here: carnegiendowment/AIGlobalSurveilance All reference source material used to build the index has been compiled into an open Zotero library. It is available here: htps:/zotero/groups/2347403/global_ai_surveilance/items. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 5 Introducing the AI Global Surveilance (AIGS) Index AI technology was once relegated to the world of science fiction, but today it surounds us. It powers our smartphones, curates our music preferences, and guides our social media feds. Perhaps the most notable aspect of AI is its suden ubiquity. In general terms, the goal of artificial inteligence is to “make machines inteligent” by automating or replicating behavior that “enables an entity to function apropriately and with foresight in its environment,” according to computer scientist Nils Nilson.5AI is not one specific technology. Instead, it is more accurate to think of AI as an integrated system that incorporates information acquisition objectives, logical reasoning principles, and self-corection capacities. An important AI subfield is machine learning, which is a statistical proces that analyzes a large amount of information in order to discern a pattern to explain the curent data and predict future uses.6Several breakthroughs are making new achievements in the field posible: the maturation of machine learning and the onset of dep learning; cloud computing and online data gathering; a new generation of advanced microchips and computer hardware; improved performance of complex algorithms; and market-driven incentives for new uses of AI technology.7Unsurprisingly, AIs impact extends wel beyond individual consumer choices. It is starting to transform basic paterns of governance, not only by providing governments with unprecedented capabilities to monitor their citizens and shape their choices but also by giving them new capacity to disrupt elections, elevate false information, and delegitimize democratic discourse acros borders. The focus of this paper is on AI surveilance and the specific ways governments are harnesing a multitude of toolsfrom facial recognition systems and big data platforms to predictive policing algorithmsto advance their political goals. Crucialy, the index does not distinguish between AI surveilance used for legitimate purposes and unlawful digital surveilance. Rather, the purpose of the research is to shine a light on new surveilance capabilities that are transforming the ability of statesfrom autocracies to advanced democraciesto kep watch on individuals. AIGS IndexMethodology The AIGS Index provides a detailed empirical picture of global AI surveilance trends and describes how governments worldwide are using this technology. It adreses thre primary questions: Which countries are adopting AI surveilance technology? What specific types of AI surveilance are governments deploying? Which countries and companies are suplying this technology?
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