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Gold and climate change: Current and future impacts Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsAbout the World Gold CouncilThe World Gold Council is the market development organisation for the gold industry. Our purpose is to stimulate and sustain demand for gold, provide industry leadership, and be the global authority on the gold market. We develop gold-backed solutions, services and products, based on authoritative market insight, and we work with a range of partners to put our ideas into action. As a result, we create structural shifts in demand for gold across key market sectors. We provide insights into the international gold markets, helping people to understand the wealth preservation qualities of gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs of society. Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East and the US, the World Gold Council is an association whose members comprise the worlds leading gold mining companies.For more informationPlease contact: John Mulligan Director, Member and Market Relations john.mulligangold +44 20 7826 4768Terry Heymann Chief Financial Officer terry.heymanngold +44 20 7826 4771Cover photo: Essakana mine, courtesy of Wrtsil, IAMGOLD Corporation.ContentsExecutive summary 01Foreword by Dr Ben Caldecott 02Introduction 04Climate change now 04Risks and opportunities 05Better understanding 061: Golds carbon footprint 07Gold mine production Scope 1 and 2 emissions 07Refining and recycled gold emissions 08Upstream (gold production) and downstream (gold products) Scope 3 emissions 09Findings 102: Net zero carbon transition pathways for the gold supply chain 13Implications for the gold industry 14Steps towards a net zero carbon gold supply chain by 2050 15Implementing a practical and cost-effective net zero carbon strategy for gold production 22Gold industry progress 233: Gold as an investment and climate-related risks 27Investor and regulatory pressure 27Climate-related risks and portfolio performance 29Asset sensitivity to climate-related risks and scenarios 29Gold implications and explanations 32Conclusions 3501Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsGolds carbon footprint Refining and broadening our understanding of golds overall emissions profile, we have produced more detailed estimates of the GHG emissions associated with gold mining and refining and confirmed that golds downstream emissions are relatively small.Potential net zero transition pathways for the gold supply chain Our analysis suggests there are substantial opportunities for the gold supply chain, and particularly gold mining, to adapt to a net zero carbon future. We outline a range of possible steps and pathways to decarbonisation that we calculate to be both practical and, over time, cost-effective for the industry.Climate-related impacts on gold as an asset in comparison to other economic sectors and mainstream asset classesWe conclude that golds risk-return profile and performance as a portfolio asset is expected to be relatively robust in the context of a range of climate scenarios. The contrasting vulnerability of many other sectors and asset classes to climate-related physical and transition risks suggests a strong case for gold as a strategic diversification and insurance asset in the face of climate change. Executive summaryThis research builds on our initial work in 2018 on golds greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions profile and climate change impacts. We have now deepened and extended our analysis, with a focus on the potential decarbonisation of the gold supply chain and climate-related investment impacts. This report, produced with technical support from independent sustainability consultancy, Anthesis, documents our findings on the following:Key findings This analysis, using more granular data covering the whole supply chain, has produced more accurate estimates of golds greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity and carbon footprint, while broadly validating our 2018 work. Golds downstream uses gold in bullion, jewellery, and electronic products have little material impact on either golds overall carbon footprint or GHG emissions. The current primary source of GHG emissions in the gold supply chain energy and fuel use in gold mine production can transition towards a net zero pathway in a practical and cost-effective manner. Golds risk-return profile is likely to be relatively robust in the context of climate-related physical and transition risks, particularly in comparison to the vulnerability of many other mainstream assets. Heightened market volatility and uncertainty from climate-related risks are likely to be supportive of further investment demand for gold, as golds roles as a risk hedge, portfolio diversifier and market insurance asset are well established. Taken together, these findings suggest gold may have an additional role to play as a climate risk mitigation asset in long-term investment strategies.02Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsIn the case of climate change, globally we need to have a negative carbon footprint (net zero) by mid-century if we are to meet the well-below two degrees objective of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Net zero will allow us to stabilise the stock of carbon in the atmosphere, but that means reducing carbon emissions to zero in every sector we can, while also extracting and sequestering carbon from the atmosphere using biological, chemical, and industrial processes at incredibly large scales. This massive challenge (and opportunity) will reshape the value of assets and companies across sectors of the global economy, as well as portfolios and loan books exposed to them. But in addition to these climate-related transition risks, we have locked in large and growing future physical climate impacts from greenhouse gas emissions that have already been emitted. According to the Global Warming Index produced by the University of Oxford the planet is already 1.12C warmer today the period from 1850-1900,1with warming unevenly distributed across the planet. Climate impacts are already Foreword by Dr Ben Caldecottbeing felt, including from increased storms and floods, rising sea levels, diminishing Arctic sea ice, and more regular and intensive heatwaves. For example, Europes 2019 record-breaking heatwave was made up to 100 times more likely by climate change.2In every future state, therefore, there will be an increased combination of both climate-related transition and physical risks that will need to be managed by society, and by extension by financial institutions. As a result, climate-related risks are increasingly being recognised as financially material, even by those traditionally most sceptic.Growing concern for the environment, combined with environment-related risks becoming both increasingly felt and anticipated, has resulted in massive and ongoing interest in aligning finance with sustainability. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance assets managed under sustainable investment strategies reached US$30.7 trillion (trn) globally in 2018, a 34% increase from 2016.31. See: globalwarmingindex 2. worldweatherattribution/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/ 3. gsi-alliance/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/GSIR_Review2018.3.28.pdfInvestors, from the very largest institutional investors to the smallest millennial retail savers, increasingly want their holdings across different asset classes to have smaller environmental footprints and for these to become aligned with environmental thresholds over time. The primary focus has been on climate change, but this growing societal demand extends to other environmental challenges including habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, air quality and water stress, among others.Dr Ben Caldecott 03Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsWhile we shouldnt take these staggeringly large numbers at face value as finance is nowhere near to realising the genuine integration of the environment into financial decision-making, they nonetheless demonstrate the rapid growth and increasing interest in sustainable finance. This is the context into which this report and its underlying analysis arrives. The authors seek to answer important questions: what role, if any, can gold as an asset class play in reducing i) the negative climate impact that investment portfolios have and ii) the climate-related risks that portfolios face? How can the gold value chain align with net zero by mid-century? And what role does gold have in supporting other sectors to achieve net zero?Gold has a role to play in answering all these questions. But as with anything, and particularly with climate change, the devil is in the detail. For example, while in general newly mined gold has greater environmental impact than recycled gold, can we differentiate between the two as investors and should they be priced differently? Can gold mining play a role in increasing the resilience of communities and local economies to climate change? What environmental impacts beyond climate does gold have and how do we factor that into the analysis? To what extent is decarbonisation of other sectors dependent on gold vs other metals and minerals? What are the most effective pathways for gold companies to achieve net zero? And which companies have credible targets and pathways, and how can these be monitored and improved?This report does much to systematically map out the questions the industry should now answer, and I commend its proactive contribution. Gold can be a part of the solution, but there is much more to do. The report is an initial roadmap for turning the shared ambition of net zero into a reality across a global industry. Much will depend on the industry itself, as well as investors in gold as an asset class. Both need to work together so that net zero alignment can be achieved. Time is of the essence. Dr Ben Caldecott is founding Director of the Oxford Sustainable Finance Programme and an Associate Professor at the University of Oxford, as well as Co-Chair of the Global Research Alliance for Sustainable Finance and Investment and a Senior Advisor to the Chair and CEO of the Green Finance Institute. Bald Mountain, Nevada USA. Image courtesy of Kinross Gold Corporation.04Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsPhysical risks Potential nancial risksTransition risksExtremeweatherProduction/operation disruptions(e.g. power, transportation, worker availability)Supply chain disruptionsPhysical damage to assets(and raising insurance costs)Changes in resource/input prices(e.g. water, energy, food)Changes in demand for products/servicesLiability TechnologyPolicyFlooding Drought Sea levelriseHeat stress Wind4 See the Glossary for a fuller description of CO2e.5 Confronting the Reality of Climate Change (2018), IGEL (The Initiative for Global Environmental Leadership) and KnowledgeWharton Special Report.The potential consequences and impacts of climate change are significant and wide-reaching. Scientists can now say with virtual certainty that extreme weather events caused by global warming, such as heatwaves and very heavy rainfall, will continue to increase in scale, intensity and frequency.5Changes in temperatures and weather patterns alter plant and animal behaviour and have significant implications for natural environments and human society across the world.Introduction Climate change nowHuman activity has caused the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere causing climate change. The concentration of atmospheric CO2e4has increased by more than 40% since pre-industrial times. This has led to a global average temperature rise of 1C above pre-industrial levels, with some regions, such as the Arctic, experiencing far greater warming. Social and political understanding of climate science, and the urgency behind calls to action to limit global warming, have rapidly been gaining momentum since the Paris Agreement on Climate Change was successfully negotiated by 196 countries in December 2015. The Paris Agreement, entered into force on 4 November 2016, sets a goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2C” compared to pre-industrial levels.05Gold and climate change: Current and future impactsRecent extreme weather events have reinforced the significance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report,6 published late last year, which stressed that immediate and concerted action is needed to limit the rise in global temperatures to below 1.5C this century. This will require a 45% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2030 and net zero carbon emissions globally by mid-century. Current plans are falling far short of what is necessary to achieve these objectives.Consequences for national economies and local communities are far reaching, with the worlds poorest nations being particularly vulnerable to physical climate-related risks. The recent United Nations update on the progress of the Sustainable Development Goals stated that climate change probably represents the most substantial obstacle to achieving the goals.7Furthermore, rapid and substantial changes to move towards a global net zero carbon economy will increase climate-related transition risks that could strand assets, prematurely curtailing their economic value and ability to generate returns.8Every future scenario presents combinations of climate-related physical and transition risks. Even though significant action on climate change may reduce physical risks, it is likely to heighten transition risks.9Risks and opportunitiesWhile there are many challenges, energy transition and climate risk mitigation will also create substantial opportunities for clean, low-carbon technologies and more robust, sustainable infrastructure. In 2016, the World Banks International Finance Corporation (IFC) assessed the national climate change commitments and policies in 21 developing countries and found that the period 2016 to 2030 offered an initial investment opportunity of US$23trn in key sectors. Commenting in 2017 on climate-related opportunities for investment, and noting the vast pool of low- and negative-yield bearing assets that has become a feature of the current financial landscape, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim stated, “Quite apart from what you think about climate change, there are opportunities for investments that will give you higher yield than any of those investments in which over US$40trn is sitting right now.”10Seeking to identify specific investment opportunities in the context of future climate scenarios, the investor-led Global Adaptation ipcc.ch/sr15/ 7 un/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/07/sdg-progress-report-2019/8 See Stranded Assets in Agriculture: Protecting Value from Environment-Related Risks (2013), Caldecott, Howa
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