中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究.pdf

2020.07执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（2 .0 版）RESEARCH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINAS RURAL AREAS (VERSION2.0)中国电动汽车百人会China EV100中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目( 油控研究项目 )中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自然资源保护协会（ NRDC）和能源基金会中国（ EF China）作为协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等十余家有影响力的单位合作，于 2018 年 1 月共同启动了“中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究”项目（简称油控研究项目），促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用，助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变化等多重目标做出贡献。自然资源保护协会（ NRDC）是一家国际公益环保组织，拥有约 300 万会员及支持者。 NRDC 致力于保护地球环境，即保护人类、动植物以及所有生灵所倚赖的生态系统。自 1970 年成立以来，我们的环境律师、科学家和专家一直在为公众享有清洁的水和空气以及健康的社区而努力。通过在科学、经济和政策方面的专业知识，我们在亚洲、欧洲、拉美和北美等地区与当地合作伙伴一起共同推进环境的综合治理与改善。请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc本报告是油控研究项目的子课题之一，由中国电动汽车百人会（ China EV100）统筹撰写。中国电动汽车百人会（ China EV100）是以促进电动汽车和智能网联汽车发展为目标，打破行业、学科、所有制和部门局限，搭建的一个通过研究和交流推动多领域融合，协同创新的第三方智库平台。中国电动汽车百人会正在持续探索更多的可能性，发挥更专业的推动和协调作用，整合资源、协同创新，助力电动汽车和智能网联汽车产业发展，实现低碳可持续经济。请登陆网站了解更多详情 chinaev100系列报告中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（ 2.0 版）中国汽车全面电动化时间表的综合评估及推进建议（ 2.0版 ）中国传统燃油汽车退出进度研究与环境效益评估中国城市公共领域燃油汽车退出时间表与路径研究中国重型货运部门减油路径评估中国石油消费总量达峰与控制方案研究中国石油消费情景研究（ 2015-2050）国际石油消费趋势与政策回顾中国石油消费总量控制的财税政策研究中国石油消费总量控制体制机制改革研究油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究中国石油真实成本研究石油开采利用的水资源外部成本研究中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究下载以上报告请登录 NRDC 官方网站 nrdc 或扫描右方二维码i中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（2.0 版）油控研究项目系列报告中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究 （2.0 版）RESEARCH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINAS RURAL AREAS(VERSION2.0)执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT张 永伟 朱 晋 徐 阳 张 健 王晓旭 李松哲 厉一平 赵泽文 中国电动汽车百人会（ China EV100）2020 年 07 月油控研究项目系列报告ii目录摘要 ivAbstract vi1.农村电动化出行的背景与意义 11.1中国农村地区即将进入机动化出行时代1.2以传统燃油车为主的机动化路径不可持续1.3以电动汽车为主的路径具有显著效益2.农村电动化出行基础条件分析 102.1农村地区对电动化出行产品的接受程度较高2.2 农村具备电动化出行产品充电配套保障条件2.3电动汽车产品高延展性能够匹配农村需求3.农村电动化出行产品需求分析 133.1考虑因素分析3.2购车预算和配置需求分析3.3充电设施关注因素分析iii中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（2.0 版）4.农村电动化出行企业供给分析 194.1企业推广情况4.2企业产品特点5.农村电动化出行发展制约因素 225.1产品供给问题：价格竞争力不足导致消费和生产积极性差5.2安全保障问题：消防体系不完善导致电动汽车着火控制能力不足5.3服务保障问题：售后服务体系不健全导致便利性较差并增加安全风险5.4充电基础设施配套问题：公共快充桩布局驱动力不强导致投资主体缺失6.农村电动化出行发展路径及保障 276.1农村电动化出行发展路径6.2农村电动化出行发展保障附录农村电动运输车发展供需分析 331.企业推广布局情况2.产品供需匹配分析油控研究项目系列报告iv摘要随着城镇化进程加快、农业工业化水平提高和农民消费水平持续提升，农村居民远距离出行需求日益增多，农村道路交通配套设施逐步完善 ,机动化出行工具成为农村居民的重要选择，农村地区开始进入机动化出行阶段。在农村地区进入机动化出行这一时期，电动汽车已经在部分 城市地区和领域推广普及，成为解决能源、环境问题及产业升级的重要途径，是汽车产业转型的重要方向。农村地区能否成功跨越燃油车时代，直接进入电动化出行时期，以避免传统燃油产品及相关基础设施的重复性投资，成为本课题重点关注与研讨的内容。从基础条件来看，农村具备直接进入电动化的条件：一是农村居民对电动化出行产品的接受程度较高；二是农村具备电动化产品充电空间和电力保障条件；三是电动汽车产品高延展性能够匹配农村差异化需求。从产品需求来看，一是农村居民购买电动汽车的支出预期在 7万元以下，主要集中在5万元左右；二是 农村居民对续驶里程期望值高，但低里程、慢充产品基本能够满足日常需要；三是充电设施的安全性、充电速度和充电价格是农村居民关注的因素；四是对电动汽车有兼顾农用或拉货等特殊需求。从产品供给来看，企业比较关注农村市场，有产品储备和开发能力。一是部分企业已在农村地区推广部分产品；二是在未来政策引导下，大多数企业将针对农村市场开发特定车型；三是微型、小型车是企业在农村市场布局的重点；四是针对农村市场开发的产品质量与销往城市地区产品保持一致。农村地区虽然具备了电动化基础条件并具有一定消费需求，但电动化发展依然面临以下挑战：一是产品供给与市场需求存在错位，价格竞争力不足导致消费和生产积极性差；二是安全保障方面，消防体系不完善导致电动汽车着火控制能力不足；三是服务保障方面，售后服务体系不健全导致便利性较差；四是充电基础设施配套方面，公共快充桩布局驱动力不强导致投资主体缺失。除上述共性因素外，不同的地区也具有各自差异性的基础条件与产品需求。因此，应采取分地区、分阶段的电动化路径。本报告首先根据经济发展、电力条件、道路条件、所在地区城镇化率、市场服务便利度、临近城市新能源汽车推广情况、所在区域新能源v中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（2.0 版）汽车产业发展状况、是否为大气治理重点区域等条件，对不同农村区域进行分类并划分优先级，结合层级划分设计了分阶段、分区域的农村地区电动化推广路径：导入阶段以电动乘用车下沉产品和升级的低速电动车导入农村市场，重点在东部沿海等农村地区（第一层级）开展电动化出行示范。发展阶段通过产品多样化扩大农村电动化市场，在第一层级农村地区全面推广电动化出行，并重点发展省会农村区域（第二层级）电动化出行。成熟阶段农村电动化进入市场化发展阶段，电动汽车在农村地区开始普及。为了加快电动汽车在农村地区的推广，并解决电动汽车大规模应用的主要阻碍因素，本报告提出六个保障机制建议：一是经济保障方面，研究针对农村电动汽车推广的财政与金融扶持政策；二是安全保障方面，加强电动汽车安全使用和消防体系建设；三是服务保障方面，加强农村地区电动汽车售后服务网点建设及维修人才培养；四是便利性保障方面，将充电桩纳入农村基础设施建设范畴；五是产品保障方面，研发生产适合农村地区的电动化产品；六是模式保障方面，探索农村地区电动汽车共享出行、电动汽车与光伏协同发展等模式。油控研究项目系列报告viAbstractWith accelerated urbanization, improved agricultural industrialization and road transportation facilities in rural area, rural residents have growing demands for long-distance travel by the day given their increased income. And hence, motor vehicles have become important means of mobility for rural residents who witness the beginning of the phase of motorization. At the same time, EV (electric vehicles) have been promoted and popularized in some urban areas and fields, becoming an important solution for energy and environmental problems as well as for industrial upgrading. EV also represents a crucial direction for the transformation of the automotive industry. This subject focuses on whether rural areas can successfully skip the stage of ICE (internal combustion engine) and enter the era of electric mobility directly to avoid the repetitive investment of traditional ICE-based products and relevant infrastructure.From the perspective of basic conditions, rural areas have the foundation to directly enter the stage of electric mobility. First of all, there is a high degree of acceptance of EV; Second, abundant space for charging and sufficient power supply for electric products; Third, the multi-utility nature of electric vehicles can meet local needs. From the perspective of product demand, first of all, rural residents expected expenditure on electric vehicles is found to be below 70,000 yuan, primarily around 50,000 yuan; Second, they have a high expectation for range, but short-range, slow-charging products can basically meet their daily needs; Third, the safety of the charging facilities, charging speed and electricity price are some of the factors rural residents most concerned about; Fourth, there is a special demand for EV that takes into account agricultural use or freight transport. From the perspective of product supply, companies value the rural market and have product reserves and development capabilities. First, some electric passenger car companies have been promoted in rural areas; Second, under the guidance of future policies, most companies will target the rural market and develop car models accordingly; Third, microcars and compact cars are the focus of electric passenger car companies in the rural market; Fourth, the quality of products developed for rural markets is consistent with those sold in urban areas. vii中国农村地区电动汽车出行研究（2.0 版）Although rural areas have the basic foundation for electric mobility and certain consumption needs, the development of electric mobility still faces the following challenges: first, a mismatch between product supply and market demand. The lack of price competitiveness leads to less enthusiasm in consumption and production; Second, in terms of safety assurance, the underdeveloped fire safety system finds it hard to control latent EV fire accidents effectively; Third, in regard to service guarantee, an incomplete after-sales service system leads to poor convenience and increased safety risks; Fourth, in terms of charging infrastructure and power grid facilities, insufficient driving force in the layout of public fast-charging piles has led to a lack of investors. In addition to these common factors mentioned above, different regions also have their own basic conditions and product requirements. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a region and phase-specific approach to realize electric mobility. This report first classifies and prioritizes different rural areas according to criteria such as economic development, grid facilities, road conditions, urbanization rate of the region, convenience for market service, promotion of new energy vehicles in neighbouring cities, development of NEV (new energy vehicle) industry in the region, and whether it is a key area for air pollution control. Next, a roadmap by region and phase to promote electric mobility is formulated according to the result of classification. In the introduction phase, electric passenger vehicle sinking products (products of good value for money) and low-speed EV are introduced into the rural market with an emphasis on the eastern coastal and other rural areas (the first tier) to build electric mobility demonstration areas. In the development phase, we will expand rural electric mobility market through product diversification, comprehensively promote electric mobility in first tier rural areas, and focus on the development of electric mobility in the areas around provincial capitals (the second tier). In the advanced phase, electric mobility in rural areas will enter a mature, market-oriented development stage, and EV will be popularized. In order to speed up the promotion of EV in rural areas, and to remove barriers of large-scale adoption of EV, this report puts forward six suggestions as safeguard mechanisms. First, in terms of the security of funding: conduct study on the fiscal and financial support policies for the promotion of rural EV; Second, in terms of safety, we should promote the safe use of EV and continue to improve fire safety systems; Third, in terms of service guarantee, we should accelerate the construction of after-sales service stations and the training of maintenance personnel in rural areas; Fourth, in terms of convenience, include charging piles in rural infrastructure construction; Fifth, in terms of product, develop products suitable for rural areas; Sixth, in terms of development mode, explore modes such as EV shared mobility in rural areas and coordinated development between EV and photovoltaic. 1农村电动化出行的背景与意义