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NOW NEXT COVID-19: What to do Now, What to do Next April 2020 How COVID-19 will permanently change consumer behavior Fast-changing consumer behaviors influence the future of the CPG industry2 The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the world as we know it. People are living differently, buying differently and, in many ways, thinking differently. Supply chains have been tested . Retailers are closing doors. Consumers across the globe are looking at products and brands through a new lens. The virus is reshaping the industry in real-time, rapidly accelerating long-term underlying trends in the space of mere weeks. Our research indicates that new habits formed now will endure beyond this crisis, permanently changing what we value; how and where we shop; and how we live and work. Even as this crisis continues to evolve, by exploring the changes that are happening now, we can consider what consumer goods businesses should do today to prepare for whats next. Were all in this together3 Consumers are deeply concerned about the impact of COVID-19, both from a health and an economic perspective. People are responding in a variety of ways and have differing attitudes, behaviors and purchasing habits. The mix of personas that consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies need to engage with will vary depending on the stage of the outbreak and the local cultural context. People across the globe are afraid as they strive to adapt to a new normal. Fear is running high as individuals contemplate what this crisis means for them, but more significantly, what it means for their families and friends, and the society at large. The highest level of fear is around the impact on the economy, with 88% of consumers revealing they are worried, while 82% worry about the health of others, exceeding the fear for personal health or personal job security. This seemingly ubiquitous lack of consumer confidence illustrates the challenge ahead once we are ready to “restart” the economy. Getting to know the consumer in crisis4 Consumers are more fearful of the economic impact of COVID-19 than for their health I am worried about the impact on the economy. I am worried about the impact on my personal job security. I am fearful for the health of others. I am fearful for my own health. 64% 82% 88% 64% Health Economy Personal Societal Figure 1. Consumers fear for themselves along with the broader society Source: Accenture Covid-19 Consumer Research, conducted April 26. Proportion of consumers that agree or significantly agree5 Meet five new types of consumers Consumers are responding to the crisis in a variety of ways. Some feel anxious and worried, fueling the panic-buying of staple and hygiene products. At the other extreme, some consumers remain indifferent to the pandemic and continue their business as usual, despite recommendations from the government and health professionals. CPG companies will need to understand how their consumers are reacting and develop customized and personalized marketing strategies for each type of consumer. The days of one-size-fits-all marketing are over. The five consumer archetypes we identified through our research include: “Im a senior citizen. I have underlying conditions. Im not willing to take chances.” 5669 year-old male “Both my husband and I will be fine. Im more concerned about people acting stupid and buying up all the toilet paper, then selling it price gauge style.” 1824 year-old female “Im not concerned. All I can do is keep things and myself clean. I hope others do the same.” 2531 year-old female “I want to maintain social distance. This is not only for my self preservation, this is our social responsibility.” 2531 year-old female “This is seriously being blown out of proportion.” 4055 year-old female The nonchalant person who is carrying out business as usual, we call the Indifferent. He or she is the least informed of all consumer types and is unlikely to be aware of, or comply with, the governments advice. Perhaps, as a result, they are 39% less likely to feel stressed or anxious vs. other consumer types. The Activist is looking out for and supporting others in the community. This person is helping ensure theres enough to go around by buying what they need, as needed, and is 59% more likely to be shopping more for people beyond their immediate household. Activists are highly active in new forms and formats of social engagement. This individual is fearful of the future, anxious and reactionary particularly with his or her purchases. He or she (77%) is worried about his or her health and is 25% more likely to be stressed or anxious as a result of the virus. This person is highly aware of news. The Individualist looks out for himself or herself, stockpiling essentials (because everyone else is) and trying to ensure he or she can maintain his or her status quo. This type of consumer is more likely to keep to himself or herselfonly 35% feel more connected to their neighbors because of the crisis. Compared to other consumer types, Individualists are 9% less likely to approve of their governments response. This person has a “keep calm and carry on” mentality. He or she has a high awareness of news82% are keeping more informed sorting information into what is useful vs. what is not. He or she has increased the purchase of only advised products, such as personal hygiene, cleaning and staple products. THE WORRIER 21% THE INDIVIDUALIST 22% THE RATIONALIST 39% THE ACTIVIST 8% THE INDIFFERENT 11%6 These consumer types help us understand the changes that consumers are making to their purchases. The biggest change is in the consumption of personal hygiene products. Worriers increased these purchases by 50% vs. just 10.4% by the Indifferent. Cleaning products and tinned food follow closely with a 25.2% and 20.6% overall net increase, respectively. Shifts in purchasing behavior7 The panic index: Consumer types help understand how purchasing is shifting Increasing 5% Decreasing 5% As Normal Net purchases* The Worrier 21% of consumers The Individualist 22% of consumers The Rationalist 39% of consumers The Activist 8% of consumers The Indifferent 11% of consumers Total net change Change Wave 1Wave 2 Personal hygiene 50.0% 42.5% 27.4% 29.1% 10.4% 33.7% - Cleaning products 42.4% 25.9% 21.0% 24.4% 5.5% 25.2% - Tinned food 40.4% 26.2% 12.6% 11.1% 5.8% 20.6% - Fresh food 32.8% 15.1% 13.8% 15.8% 3.4% 17.1% - Frozen food 25.2% 17.2% 4.4% 8.1% 3.4% 11.7% - Online entertainment 20.1% 11.2% 5.1% 7.7% 2.8% 9.5% - Communication 19.2% 2.8% 4.4% 12.8% -1.2% 7.2% - Wellness 22.8% 6.9% 0.6% 0.9% -1.8% 6.4% - OTC 19.8% 3.4% 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 5.4% - Pet care 6.3% -2.2% -6.8% -9.0% -0.6% -2.5% - Non-alcohol beverage 8.2% -1.0% -7.3% -6.0% -1.2% -1.9% - Toys and games 3.6% -8.2% -12.9% -15.8% -6.1% -7.9% - Consumer electronics -4.2% -10.8% -18.6% -25.2% -5.8% -13.0% - Alcohol beverage -10.8% -17.0% -15.3% -16.2% -6.7% -13.9% - Beauty -12.5% -13.2% -23.0% -25.2% -5.2% -16.9% - Home dcor -12.2% -21.5% -27.5% -34.2% -10.4% -21.7% Fashion -23.4% -26.2% -35.3% -44.0% -16.3% -29.4% Consumption: *Net purchases measured as a % of consumers increasing purchasing, less the % decreasing purchasing vs. prior two weeks Source: Accenture Covid-19 Consumer Research, conducted April 26 34% of consumers are increasing their purchase of personal hygiene products while cutting back on more discretionary categories Figure 2. The Panic IndexConsumers attitudes shift as the pandemic progresses. We split the 15 markets in our survey into three categoriesdeveloping, advancing and stabilizingbased on the stage of an outbreak at the time of our survey. The proportion of both Worriers and Activists decreases, while the Individualists and Indifferents increase in stabilizing markets. However, we also need to consider the cultural factors at play. Prior experience with SARS in Asian markets as well as the high levels of trust in the government (72%) strongly influence how consumers have reacted. No matter what the market is, it will be important for CPG companies in the future to engage with governments and other trusted agencies as part of their brand and consumer engagement strategies. 8 Changes in attitude6% 10% 18% 8% 10% 39% 41% 34% 21% 19% 32% 26% 21% 14% 9 Consumer attitudes change as the pandemic progresses, with the lowest proportion of Worriers in markets where the outbreak is stabilizing Source: Accenture COVID-19 Consumer Research, conducted April 26. Countries are grouped based on the stage where they are in the outbreak at the time of fielding, measured by the time since the first 100 cases were diagnosed in each country and the weekly increase in new cases Developing Advancing Stabilizing 2% NEW DAILY CASES Worriers Indifferent Activists Individualists Rationalists Figure 3. Consumers attitudes shift as the virus is stabilized10 Why, what and how consumers buy is changing due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Consumer priorities have become centered on the most basic needs, sending the demand for hygiene, cleaning and staples products soaring, while non- essential categories slump. The factors that influence brand decisions are also changing as a “buy local” trend accelerates. Digital commerce has also seen a boost as new consumers migrate online for grocery shoppinga rise that is likely to sustain post-outbreak. New buying behaviors to outmaneuver uncertainty11 In times like these, our need for the basic necessities of life takes precedence. It comes as no surprise that personal health is the top priority for the consumers we surveyed, followed by the health of friends and family. Food and medical security, financial security and personal safety were other leading priorities. Getting back to basicsEntertainment Personal accomplishment Job satisfaction Community belonging Hobbies Education Friendships Food and medicine safety Personal health Basic needs Self-fulfillment needs 12 The research proves consumers are very focused on their most basic needs at present 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 29% 6% 6% 4% 51% 3% 7% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 80% 42% 31% 37% 78% Proportion of consumers that rank needs as top 1/top 3 priority Top 1 Top 3 Health of friends and family Financial security Personal safety Source: Accenture COVID-19 Consumer Research, conducted April 26 Figure 4. Basic needs are top of mind for consumers versus self-fulfillment13 Newand everlastingshopping habits The ever-increasing focus on health CPG brands should heed this change and make it a priority to support healthy lifestyles for consumers, shoppers and employees. Having a “health strategy” will be a strategic differentiator in the foreseeable future. The outbreak has pushed consumers out of their normal routines. Consumers are adopting new habits and behaviors that many anticipate will continue in the long term. The virus has accelerated three long-term trends: A rise in conscious consumption Consumers are more mindful of what theyre buying. They are striving to limit food waste, shop more cost consciously and buy more sustainable options. Brands will need to make this a key part of their offer (for example, by exploring new business models). Growing love for local The desire to shop local is reflected in both the products consumer buy (for example, locally sourced, artisanal) and the way they shop (for example, supporting community stores). CPG companies will need to explore ways to connect locallybe it through highlighting local provenance, customizing for local needs or engaging in locally relevant ways.14 Consumers expect their shopping habits to change permanently 67% 60% 54% 47% 44% 41% 36% 23% 24% 68% 59% 54% 49% 46% 41% 39% 26% 24% Limiting food waste Shopping more health consciously Doing larger shops Making more sustainable choices Doing fewer shops Shopping more cost consciously Only buying brands I know and trust Shopping in closer neighborhood stores Shopping more for others April 26 March 1925 Source: Accenture COVID-19 Consumer Research, conducted March 1925 and April 26 Limiting food waste and shopping more health consciously are the top two priorities for consumers Proportion that agree or significantly agree with statement and are likely to sustain this post-outbreak Figure 5. Consumers expect changes in shopping habits to be permanentThe trend toward digital commerce is expected to continue post-outbreak with consumers reporting that the proportion of instances they shop online will increase from 32% to 37% after the outbreak, illustrating the clear need for a substantial increased investment in this channel. 15 The demand for e-commerce has surged due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Alibabas online supermarket, Hema, reported that orders were up 220% year-over-year during Chinese New Year, when the virus started spreading. 1 In the United States, online delivery service Instacarts subscriptions grew 1020 times in states with the most reported COVID-19 cases. 2 Much of this new e-commerce activity has been from new users. One in five consumers who ordered their last groceries online did so for the first timebut for consumers aged 56 years and above, this was one in three. While new users have been flocking online, many existing customers have struggled to get delivery slots. According to UK online supermarket Ocado, almost every one of the nearly 800,000 active customers they had at the end of 2019 wanted to place an order once a week during March. However, as the demand soared, so did the basket size, growing by more than 50% and reducing the number of orders the business could pick and deliver. 3 This lack of system capacity seen across the retail landscape has meant that some new users have replaced existing loyal customers. High-frequency users are now turning elsewhere given challenges with delivery slotsincluding buying more local brands. The eComm phenom16 High-frequency users plan to reduce online purchases as demand goes unmet 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 100 0 12 37 62 87 High-frequency users Pull back New users Adopting Existing ad-hoc users Maintaining % of Current Purchases (midpoint) 25% 2549% 5074% 7599% “Never” “Always” % of Future Purchases New users expect to increase the proportion of purchases made online by Source: Accenture COVID-19 Consumer Research, conducted April 26 April. Average proportion of future purchases made online by current frequency 10% on average, while high- frequency users expect to reduce by on average 9% REVERTING TO LOCAL High-frequency users are 2.7 times more likely to increase their purchases of small local brands than new users Figure 6. High-frequency users plan to pull back on online purchases as demand goes unmet17 The social impact The COVID-19 outbreak has slowed
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