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FOLOWUSCONTACT US A CEIC Insights Report Rusia Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019 2 Executive Sumary Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Russia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 3 Economic Outlok Despiteapick-upto2.3%inQ42018,realGDPgrowthsloweddownagainto0.63%inthefirst quarterof2019arecordlowsinceQ42017.Inthefaceoftighteningfiscalpolicy,private consumptionandinvestmentcontracted,whileexportvalueshrunkonthebackoflowglobaloil prices. InflationhasclosedintotheCentralBankstargetof4%,standingat4.66%inJune2019.A25-bp policyratecutinJuneandexpectationsforfurtherlooseningofthemonetarypolicyaretoput upwardpresureonpricesintheupcomingmonths. Unemploymentreachedapost-Sovieteralowof4.6%inMarchandhasbeensustainedatthis levelsincethen. ThecontaminationoftheDruzhbaoilpipelinedepresedRussianexportsinMayamidrisingoil prices,whiletheeconomicslowdownofthecountrysmaintradepartnershascontributedtoa decreaseinimports. RussiaseconomicdecelerationisexpectedtocontinueaccordingtotheCEICLeadingIndicator,which hassustaineditsnegativetrend.Theindicatorincreasedto108.10inMay2018(forecastingthe subsequentaccelerationoftheeconomyinH22018),beforeslopingdownwardtoreach100.10inJune 2019,marginalyabovethethresholdof100.Whileequitymarketindexandpasengercarsproduction impactedpositivelyoveralgrowth,coalminingandpetroleumproductsproductioncontractedinQ2 2019tooffsetthispositiveeffectandcontributetotheeconomicslowdown. Thisforecastisinlinewiththeleadinganalystsprojectionsofanaemiceconomicdevelopmentin 2019:bothOxfordEconomicsandFitchRatingsforeseaweak1.2%GDPgrowthfortheyear,while FocusEconomicsisslightlymoreoptimisticwith1.4%y/y.Thelooseningofmonetarypolicyis expectedtostrengthenprivateconsumption,whileanexpectedroubledepreciationislikelytoboost exportsintheshortterm. Russianexports,stildependenttoagreatextentonoilandgas,areforecasttostabilizeoverthe secondhalfof2019.AdecisionwasmadeduringthesixthOPEC+meetinginthebeginingofJulyto extendoilsupplycutsforanadditionalninemonths.Thisisexpectedtomaintainstability ininternationaloilpricesamidglobaltensionsbetwentheUSandIran,theseizureofanIranian tankerbytheBritishRoyalMarinesandthesubsequentresponsefromTehrantonameafew. Key Highlights EXECUTIVE SUMARY Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 4 Purchasing Managers Index CEIC Leading Indicator Consumer Sentiment Index Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: CEIC Data Source: CEIC Data A CEIC Insights Report Sumary 5 Realgrowthrate(seasonallyandworking-dayadjusted)deceleratedto0.63%onananualbasisin Q12019andtheMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentexpectsittoend2019atmere1.3%.Giventhe record-lowunemployment,therestrictedaccestoforeigncapitalandthetinyrealimpactofPutins ambitiousNationalProjectsinfrastructureplan,upwardcorectionsoftheGDPgrowthrateare unlikelyin2019. Industrialproductionindexgrewbyatwo-yearhighof3.53%y/yinJune,underpinedmainly bythegrowthoftwoofthecountryshighestgrosingindustries-oilandgas,andbasicmetals by2.3%and14.6%y/y,respectively.Theexpansionofthelatercomesasaconsequence oftheTrumpadministrationsdecisiontoliftsanctionsoncompanieslinkedtoRussianoligarch OlegDeripaska. However, thesecond-highestgrosingindustry, refinedpetroleum products,contractedby4.8%y/yinQ22019. DespitetheupwardeffectoninflationoftheJanuaryVAThike,indicatedbyamarginalriseto5.25%in March,theConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)hasbeenclosingintothe4%target,downto4.66%inQ2.Itis projectedtoend2019at4.34%,thoughforecastsmaychange,asfurtherpolicyratecutsareexpected inthemonthstocome. Inthefirsthalfof2019,theroublegainedonallmajorcurrencies:5.88%againsttheUSdollarand 8.15%againsttheeuro, raisingconcernsregardingRussianexports international competitivenes.MOEXtherouble-denominatedstockmarketindexreachedapost-Sovietera highof2,842.78onJuly4,indicatingadecreasingeffectofsanctionsuponthetopplayersonthe market. Praisedbyinternationalauthoritiesforitssoundfiscalpolicyinrecentyears,theRussianfederal governmenthassustainedabudgetsurplusthroughoutthewholeH12019,scoringRUB277.8bninQ2 2019.TheJanuaryVAThikehasfurtherstrengthenedthisposition,however,additionalrevenuemight berequirediftheambitioussix-yearNationalProjectsprogrammeistobecompleted. Thisyearhasnotbeenveryfavourabletothecountrystradesurplus,witha21.99%plungeonan anualbasisinMay.Fromaslumpinoilpricesattheendof2018,totheDruzhbaoilpipeline contaminationinAprilandtheconstantlyappreciatingrouble,thevalueofRussianexports,which arestilverydependentonoilpricesandoutput,contractedby13.5%y/yinMay.Amidgeopolitical tensionsandweakeningdomesticconsumption,importsdroppedby7.39%onananualbasis, underpinedmainlybya10%decreaseinmachinesandequipmentimports. EXECUTIVE SUMARY Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 6 Real GDP Growth: QoQGrowth Rusian Economy: Statistics at a Glance Headline December) RUB bn 1334,7 -397,9 Net Capital Inflow (-) /Outflow (+) USD bn 3,4 23,9 33,1 Gros Capital Formation RUB bn 3999,4 7863,1 Pasenger Cars Production Unit 138040,0114550,0147501,0136891,0133957,0112673,0124931,0 Construction Works Value Index Same Mth PY=10 100,1 100,2 100,0 100,2 100,3 100,1 102,6 Electricity Generation kWh bn 82,7 85,5 90,1 100,4 97,0 107,3 109,2 Crude Oil: Mining & Quarying Ton th 45673,046998,245999,847802,343296,448113,848443,9 Agricultural Production Index Same Mth PY=10 101,1 101,0 101,4 101,5 101,0 100,7 100,1 Consumer Confidence Index % Point -14,6 -16,5 -16,6 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 7 Average Export Price: Crude Oil CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Foreign Exchange Rate: vs USD and EUR 8 Real Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Russia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Real Sector 9 Inthefaceofstronger-than-expectedeconomicslowdowninQ12019,FitchRatingshasrevisedthe 2019GDPgrowthprojectionforRussiadownto1.2%,whileFocusEconomicsanalystsprojecta1.4% growthrate,0.1ppdownfromtheJanuaryprediction.AccordingtotheRussianStateStatistical Service(Rostat),seasonalyandworkingdayadjustedGDPgrowthfelto0.63%y/yinQ12019the countrysslowestgrowthratesinceQ42017.Thedropwasmainlydrivenbylowprivateconsumption growthat0.57%q/q,whichcamepartlyasaconsequenceoftheJanuaryVATincreasefrom18%to 20%.AdeclineininvestmentsinQ12019by1.91%q/qcontributedtothedropinoutput,again underpinedbythecountrystightenedfiscalpolicy.However,consumptionandinvestmentare expectedtoreboundastheCentralBankcutthepolicyrateinJuneby25bpto7.5% andafurtherpolicylooseningisexpectedinthefolowingmonths.Moreover,duetolowoilpricesand slowingdemandfromRussiasmaintradingpartners,exportscontractedinthebeginingoftheyear anddidnotmanagetoreboundtotheirpreviousvalue,leadingtoa0.37%decreaseq/q. Theunemploymentratedecreasedtoapost-Sovieteralowof4.6%inMarchandhasbeensustained sincethen.TheamountofofficialyregisteredjobseekershasbeengradualyslidingsinceFebruary 2019,reaching899,100people.Unemploymentratewasslightlyhigherformencomparedtowomen 4.9%vs4.5%,respectively,inMarch2019.Thenumberofeconomicalyactiveindividualscontinuesto drop,markinga1.01%decreasey/yinJune2019.However,lastyearspensionreformthatraised retirementageto65formenand60forwomenisaimedatreversingthistrend.Worisomesignals comefromthestagnatingrealwagesindex:asofFebruary2019,therewaszeroanualpayrise causedbytwo-yearhighinflationandtheconsecutivemonetarypolicytightening.However,wages wentupby2.3%y/yinJune,whileinnominaltermstheyexperienceda7.1%rise.Whiletheminimal wageremains11,280RUB,averagewagehasreached47,926RUB,upby8.74%y/y. Industrial outputgrowth, asmeasured bythe anual change of theIndustrialProductionIndex(seasonallyadjusted),hasbeenquitevolatilesofarin2019,though reachingatwo-year-highat3.53%y/yinJune.ThehighestgrosingindustriesinMay2019werestil oilandgaswithRUB1.19tn,andpetroleumcokeandrefinedpetroleumproductswithRUB831.5bn.Oil andgasoutputroseby2.3%y/yinJune2019,whilepetroleumcokeandrefinedpetroleumproducts outputdeclinedby4.8%.However,thisnegativeeffectontheindustrywasbalancedbya14.6%y/y increaseinthevalueofbasicmetals-thethird-highestgrosingindustry. REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 10 SincetheseasonalJanuarydrop,retailtradehasbeenexpectedlyfluctuating,decreasingm/mtoRUB 2.45tninFebruarybutincreasingby7.76%onayearlybasis.Duringthefollowingmonthsithasbeen gradualyexpandingtoreachRUB2.73tninJune2019a6.13%risey/y.AsofJune2019,non-food productsacountedfor51.94%oftotalretailtradeamarginaldecreasefromthe52.44%inJune2018. Amongthefooditems,thehighestgrowthrateinQ12019wasshownbyvegetables,sugarandeggs, at18.2%,18%and15.7%y/y,respectively,whilethehighestvaluewasrecordedbymeat,meat productsandtinedmeatRUB641.9bn.Asregardsnon-fooditems,monitorsalestopthe highestgrowthrankingwith22.4%y/y,followedbymobilephones,andtoysandgames saleswith18.4%and16.8%y/y,respectively.Gasolineandpasengercarssalescontinuetoholdthe topretailsalespositionswithRUB467.7bnandRUB408bninQ12019,thoughrecordingslowinggrowth ratesof7.1%and7.5%,respectively. TraditionalyimportantfortheRussianeconomy,realestateactivitiesconstituted9.2%ofGDPasof 2018.AccordingtoRostat,housingpricesincreasedbothontheprimaryandsecondary markets,by6.96%and4.41%y/y,respectively,inQ12019.Theaverageapartmentpriceroseby3%y/y inQ1,reaching60,705RUB/m2.TheaverageapartmentpriceinthecapitalMoscowwasthretimes higher,increasingby13%y/y.Pricesonthesecondarymarketroseataslightlyfaster7%ratey/y, reaching57,005RUB/m2foranaverageapartment.Thetotalnumberofbuildingscompleteddeclined by3.26%y/yinQ1to62,200units. Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 GDP: Real Growth and Nominal Source: A CEIC Insights Report 11 GDP by Expenditure CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 GDP: Monthly Estimates Unit 03.201912.201809.201806.201803.201812.201709.201706.2017 Gros Domestic Product (GDP) RUB bn24487,129486,727127,224823,822438,125689,923795,521971,9 GDP: Final Consumption RUB bn17377,518462,617740,016874,416256,017195,416711,415921,9 GDP: Final Consumption: Households RUB bn12576,413754,413105,412268,711722,612871,812448,011673,2 GDP: Final Consumption: Government RUB bn 4687,3 4598,3 4525,8 4498,0 4427,2 4228,3 4167,4 4153,7 GDP: Final Consumption: Non Profit Institutions Serving Households RUB bn 113,8 109,9 108,8 107,7 106,2 95,3 96,0 95,0 GDP: Gros Capital Formation RUB bn 3999,4 7863,1 6525,0 5542,2 3680,9 7160,1 6458,0 5192,1 GDP: Gros Capital Formation: Gros Fixed Capital Formation RUB bn 3855,1 8449,6 5416,4 4848,7 3522,7 7904,2 4898,7 4462,5 GDP: Gros Capital Formation: Changes In Inventories RUB bn 144,3 -586,5 1108,6 693,5 158,2 -744,1 1559,3 729,6 GDP: Net Exports RUB bn 2706,8 3331,2 2554,0 2329,5 2143,6 1554,9 641,8 1005,5 GDP: Net Exports: Exports RUB bn 7706,6 9228,5 8376,5 7749,3 6578,3 6889,7 5890,1 5636,4 GDP: Net Exports: Imports RUB bn 4999,8 5897,3 5822,5 5419,8 4434,7 5334,8 5248,3 4630,9 GDP: Statistical Discrepancy RUB bn 403,4 -170,2 308,2 77,7 357,6 -220,5 -15,7 -147,6 A CEIC Insights Report 12 GDP: Final Consumption: QoQGrowth GDP: Net Exports: QoQGrowth GDP: Consumption and Investment: QoQ Growth Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 13 Industrial Production Index: YoY Growth Retail Trade Turnover CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Gros Value Aded: by Industry Source: A CEIC Insights Report 14 Unemployment Rate and Job Search Average Wekly Hours Worked: Per Employe Property Price IndexConstruction: No of Buildings Completed CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Nominal and Real Wages Minimal and Average Wages 15 Monetary & Financial Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Russia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Monetary & Financial Sector 16 Apartfromamarginalincreaseto5.25%inMarch,inflationhasbeengradualydecreasingdownto 4.66%inJuneastheeffectsfromtheJanuaryVAThikearefadingaway.CPIisnowclosingintothe CentralBankstargetof4%,thoughtheministryofeconomicdevelopmentexpectsittoend2019at 4.34%.However,projectionsmaychangeasthecentralbankcutthepolicyrateby25bpinJuneandis expectedtocontinuelooseningitspolicy.AnalystsarelookingforwardtotheCentralBanksreaction tobothEUsdecisiontoextendsanctionsuntilJanuary2020andtothefurtheroiloutputcuts decidedduringthesixthOPEC+meeting. Thevalueoftheconsumerbasketofgoodsandservicesameasurethatincludes83fixeditemsof goodsandservicesintendedtomonitorthepriceoflivinghasbeensteadilyincreasing,withgrowth reaching6.56%y/yinMaybeforefalingtoa2019lowof5.92%inJune.ThevalueforMoscowhas followedasimilargrowthpathwitha2019highinMayat5.69%and2019lowinJuneat 5.24%.Foodprices(37.61%outoftotalCPI)roseatahigherpacethantheirnon-food counterparts,by5.5%and3.5%,respectively,inJune,thoughbothdecreasedincomparisontothe previousmonth.Coreconsumerpricesgrowthsloweddownduringthepastquarter,slipingto4.56% inJune,only10bpbelowtheCPI. Amidsluggishrealincomegrowth,householddebthassustaineditsupwardtrendtoreach16%of GDPinQ12019,upby53bpcomparedtothepreviousquarter.Innominalterms,itroseby18.78%on ananualbasistoa2019highatUSD270.3bninMay2019.Thegrowthcomesagainstthebackdrop ofagradualfalinlendingratestoreacha2019lowat14.91%inQ1,downby3ppfromtheprevious quarter. Duringthefirsthalfof2019,theroublehasbeengainingonallthremajorcurrencies:itsratewas RUB70.56totheeuroonJuly18andRUB62.81totheUSdollaronJuly17.Sincethebeginingofthe year,theRussiancurrencyhasgained5.88%againsttheUSdollarand8.15%againsttheeuro,despite thesanctionsandgeopoliticalisuessuchastheallegedRussianmeddlingintothe2016USelections andsuspectedcolaborationwithIranfortheUKoiltankerseize. Thefinanceministry iscloselyfollowingtheappreciatingroubleandhasanouncedplanstopurchaseuptoRUB69.9bnin ordertocontainnegativeeffectsonRussianexports. Themainrouble-denominatedindex,whichiscomprisedofthe50mostliquidanddynamicaly developingRussianmarketstocksMOEXexperiencedastepupwardtrend,reachingahistoric highof2,842.78onJuly4,19.66%upfromitsJanuary3valueof2,375.60.Inthefaceofrecent geopoliticaltensions,however,thebenchmarkindexslipedto2,701.06onJuly23.TheUSD- denominatedRTSindexhasalsobeenontherise,topingat1,411.53onJuly4.Giventheeconomys highdependencyonoilexports,thetrendis,toagreatextent,underpinedbythereboundin internationaloilprices,combinedwithincreasedconfidenceamonginvestorsthatnoUSsanctions arecomingsoon.Moreover,theeffectofEUsanctionsontheeconomyisfadingaway,asthemarkets barelyreactedtotheirextensionuntilJanuary2020. MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 17 Consumer Basket of Gods and Services: YoY CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Rusia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Consumer Price Index Source: A CEIC Insights Report 18 Consumer Price Index Lending Rates CEIC
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