资源描述
2021 GLOBAL LOGISTICS OUTLOOK MAY 20212 CUSHMAN not least of all being higher acquisition costs and increased land taxes and infrastructure charges. OUTLOOK Demand drivers highlight gaps in supply chains that can potentially be addressed by the expanded range of logistics asset types. To the extent supply chains connect production to consumption, these gaps can be in the same or across multiple regions. Structural trends fueling demand over the long-term are also being accelerated by both business and consumer reactions to the pandemic. The investor outlook, therefore, is continued strong capital and income returns, with the latter likely to increase in contribution. The combination of strong demand and supply chain reconfigurations to enhance efficiencies puts a sharper focus on land availability for new development. This will be a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed for real estate to meet the future needs of the sector.INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION We witnessed a story of resilience in 2020 as COVID-19 held the worlds economies hostage. Record-breaking declines in economic activity during Q1 and Q2 would normally not be conducive to healthy occupier demand or investor appetite, but this was not the case for the global logistics sector. Just as longer-term global drivers of demand have shaped logistics real estate, COVID-19 will undoubtedly leave its mark on the sector. By exposing global supply chain vulnerabilities and accelerating long-term trends in consumer behavior, COVID-19 will be etched in history as a turning point. In this report, we consider some of the key drivers affecting the global logistics market, examine recent market performance, and provide an outlook for the sector in the years to come. 4 CUSHMAN and (ii) managing the increasing amounts of product returns. Although not mutually exclusive, these challenges have different real estate needs with regards to location, accessibility, size and quality of building. Companies that can identify their needs earliest and secure appropriate building space can expect to benefit from first- mover advantage. 4 DeloitteDRIVERS 7 2021 GLOBAL LOGISTICS OUTLOOK DRIVERS Trade policy The free flow of goods relies on the stability of global and regional trade agreements; many of which have been subject to renegotiation or complete abandonment in recent years. As such, trade policy is always in a state of flux. Newly negotiated treaties, like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which took effect in 2020, could create new market opportunities for companies operating global supply chains in North America. Other agreements, such as the 1995 Schengen agreement that advanced the creation of the EU by eliminating borders between EU member states, are under threat as evidenced by the UKs exit last year. Alternatively, the 2018 escalation of the U.S.-China trade frictions have had repercussions for other trade agreements that put global and regional supply chains and production lines at risk. With the new Biden administration, there is renewed optimism that trade disputes that flared in recent years will begin to calm. However, this has not stopped the logistics industry from closely examining the disruptions already encountered. While some companies have been relatively quick to reroute supply chains through more neutral locations, these have mainly been enacted as short-term safeguards. A complete supply chain overhaul will only occur over the longer term when companies may eventually decide to increase or shift production closer to consumers. Of course, with new trade agreements regularly being placed on the diplomatic table, corporates will need to remain nimble when it comes to their longer- term planning. Connectivity through infrastructure Trade agreements serve as the backdrop for global and regional distribution. Quality infrastructure networks are essential to physically connect markets and are the backbone of expansion in the logistics sector. As population centers continue to grow, there remains a voracious appetite for new or upgraded infrastructure indeed the Asia Development Bank has identified a requirement for annual expenditure of USD 1.7 trillion on infrastructure in Asia Pacific alone to meet the needs of the growing population. At the trans-regional level, the ongoing advancement of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to focus on strengthening both rail and maritime freight routes to Africa and Europe. Within Europe, the TEN-T regional infrastructure initiative has a specific aim to reduce transportation-related carbon emissions. While TEN-T projects include both passenger and freight networks, an emphasis on trans-modal transportation addresses severe road congestion along the continents traditional distribution motorway corridors that has increased costs for the logistics industry. At the national level, projects are more numerous, though smaller in nature. In the U.S., President Bidens American Jobs Plan includes proposals for $617 billion to be invested in traditional Quality infrastructure networks are essential to physically connect markets and are the backbone of expansion in the logistics sector.8 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD DRIVERS infrastructure (such as roads, bridges and ports) in addition to $683 billion for modernizing, upgrading and/or expanding broadband, the electric grid, water infrastructure, affordable housing and education facilities. The plan contains another $1.295 trillion in investment in R&D, manufacturing, workforce development and the caretaking economy. In addition, governments have sought to fast-track new infrastructure projects to spur economic growth in response to the COVID-19-induced recession. This has been especially prevalent in Asia Pacific where Australia is looking to bring forward approximately AUD72 billion in projects, the Singaporean government has recommitted to the Tuas Mega Port and China has recently announced new infrastructure initiatives, including enhanced ultra-high voltage capacity and an expanded industrial internet network. No matter where it is occurring, connectivity through infrastructure investment is essential to the logistics sector and is the foundation for creating new markets and strengthening the flow of goods to existing ones. Supply chain resiliency Heightened geopolitical risks, increasing wages, evolving trade agreements and now COVID-19 are forcing companies to rethink supply chains. Many are moving towards a gradual increase in sourcing products and raw materials closer to consumers, a growing reliance on regional manufacturing and moving forward with longer-term plans for reshoring. Improving supply chain transparency through blockchain technology, RFID (Radio-Frequency IDentification) and other big data solutions make it possible to monitor the movement of goods and therefore, rectify any problems that arise. Many occupiers are likely to build higher inventory levels to safeguard supply chains against near-term disruptions, including those associated with the current pandemic. Looking ahead, we expect elevated leasing demand in the next two to three years as companies adjust to higher e-commerce volumes and higher inventory levels. Such demand growth is highlighted in the U.S. where it is estimated that every 100 basis points (bps) of growth in inventories requires an additional 57 million square feet (msf) of warehouse space. 5 Elsewhere, such as emerging markets in Asia Pacific, the trend is very much expansionary as the sector remains somewhat nascent across much of the region. Recent experiences have revealed the benefits of having a diversified manufacturing base across the region. This is expected to accelerate the transition of lower-order manufacturing out of China and into emerging markets. In turn, expect Chinese manufacturers to move up the value chain and focus on the production of higher order goods. This will likely require the development of new, high quality premises and accelerate the trend of decentralization already underway in many of Chinas Tier 1 cities as older industrial parks become consumed by higher and better uses. On a global level, achieving greater supply chain resiliency will undoubtedly mean reorganizing both logistics and production platforms. As part of this, expect continued growth in 3PLs as ongoing outsourcing to these operators affords enormous efficiencies and greater flexibility and in an increasingly unpredictable world, flexibility is rapidly moving up the priority list. Such flexibility offered by 3PLs is founded upon scale, both in regard to geographical coverage and volume of goods movement. Not surprisingly, there has been considerable merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the sector to build that scale such that today, many 3PL platforms have large enough geographic footprints to be able to offer the nimbleness and flexibility required to maneuver supply chains in a fast-moving global landscape. 5 PrologisDRIVERS 9 2021 GLOBAL LOGISTICS OUTLOOK Figure 1: Number of 3PL acquisitions over $100 Million per annum (1999-2019) Source: Armstrong & Associates 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Acquisitions10 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD GLOBAL LEASING MARKET DYNAMICS GLOBAL LEASING MARKET DYNAMICS Notwithstanding the challenges wrought by the current pandemic, global demand for warehouse space is extremely strong, fueled by the gamut of structural drivers presented above. In this context, it is supply conditions that are differentiating landlord- from tenant-favorable markets. Table 1: Global warehouse rental ranking Q4 2020 MOST EXPENSIVE LEAST EXPENSIVE RANK COUNTRY MARKET USD SQFT/ YEAR COUNTRY MARKET USD SQFT/ YEAR 1 United Kingdom London $24.90 India Hyderabad $2.45 2 China Hong Kong $19.93 India Ahmedabad $2.61 3 U.S. San Francisco Peninsula, CA $18.25 Turkey Izmir $2.79 4 Switzerland Geneva $17.97 Turkey Ankara $3.07 5 Singapore Singapore $16.68 India NCR $3.27 6 Japan Tokyo $14.71 India Chennai $3.41 7 Norway Oslo $14.68 U.S. Memphis, TN $3.61 8 U.S. San Francisco North Bay, CA $14.62 India Kolkata $3.70 9 U.S. Puget Sound - Eastside $14.31 Greece Thessaloniki $3.72 10 Switzerland Zurich $13.97 U.S. Columbus, OH $3.95 11 U.S. Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA $13.93 U.S. Greenville, SC $4.06 12 Sweden Stockholm $13.62 India Pune $4.08 13 U.S. San Diego, CA $13.44 India Mumbai $4.15 14 U.S. Orange County, CA $12.73 U.S. Cleveland, OH $4.15 15 Ireland Dublin $12.41 U.S. Louisville, KY $4.20 16 Finland Helsinki $12.30 China Dalian $4.23 17 U.S. Long Island, NY $11.87 India Bengaluru $4.24 18 U.S. Los Angeles, CA $11.64 U.S. Roanoke, VA $4.27 19 U.S. Northern VA $11.42 U.S. Kansas City, MO $4.31 20 U.S. Oakland/East Bay, CA $11.37 China Chongqing $4.42 Source: Cushman & Wakefield (Converted with the Q4 2020 FX rateMARKET DYNAMICS 11 2021 GLOBAL LOGISTICS OUTLOOK EMEA Europes logistics sector is grappling with supply constraints, stemming from a combination of a lack of developable land and strict planning regimes. In contrast to pre-GFC when speculative development represented roughly 80% of new construction, post-GFC has been characterized by predominantly built-to-suit development that led to severe supply shortages in most of Europes core logistics markets. Compounding the supply dilemma further, low vacancy levels and a pause in speculative development during the first half of the year (H1) contributed to a growing supply-demand gap. In many markets, the consequence of supply constraints has been reflected in restrained gross leasing activity. As speculative construction resumed post-lockdowns during the second half of the year (H2), bringing more product to market, pent-up demand was released and leasing activity accelerated. Based on year-end 2020 data, vacancy continues to trend downward in most of Europes key logistics hubs. Vacancy of approximately 4% in Dutch and UK markets and vacancy hovering around 2% in Rotterdam, Lyon, Prague and Budapest points to a severe lack of stock that, so far, a rise in speculative construction has been unable to alleviate. Furthermore, increased demand from e-retailers and 3PLs, as they expand their logistics footprint, has offset any vacancies created through tenant bankruptcies during 2020. While many markets experienced a lull in activity during the first half of 2020 due to strict lockdowns, a resurgence in activity during Q3 and/or Q4 resulted in record European-wide total/gross leasing of 345 msf during 2020, 14% above the 2019 level of 301 msf. The regional result was underpinned by strong performances in the UK (+44% YOY) and CEE countries (+19% YOY), though was partially offset by markets such as France where leasing was 7% below the 2019 level. Accordingly, annual rental growth was the strongest in UK markets, growing on average by 4.3%. London, the most mature e-commerce market in Europe, posted 12.5% annual growth in rents in western submarkets where urban logistics solutions are becoming more prevalent. The same market dynamics fueled a 5.6% average annual rental growth in Germany as well as steady growth ranging between 1-2.5% in Europes key logistics market. APAC In broad terms, the regional industrial market remains resilient. Out of the 34 key markets covered within Asia Pacific, 15 are considered landlord-favorable with six being tenant favorable and the remaining 13 in neutral territory. The status quo has largely been maintained year-to-date, with only Singapore showing any significant change to becoming more tenant friendly, though this is restricted to certain parts of the industrial market. In local currency terms, industrial rents grew steadily in 2020 and into 2021 in key Indian and South East Asian markets where rents in Delhi, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata and Hanoi have all increased by over 2.5%. Rents have held broadly flat in Australia while they have seen a slight uptick of 2% in the Chinese logistics market, due to boosted demand from online shopping soaking up some of the vacancy. In contrast, Singapore and Hong Kong have been under the greatest downward pressure, with both suffering from weaker re-export demand. In addition, Hong Kong is currently managing several challenges and in line with this rents have eased 10% over the year. Table 1: Global warehouse rental ranking Q4 2020 MOST EXPENSIVE LEAST EXPENSIVE RANK COUNTRY MARKET USD SQFT/ YEAR COUNTRY MARKET USD SQFT/ YEAR 1 United Kingdom London $24.90 India Hyderabad $2.45 2 China Hong Kong $19.93 India Ahmedabad $2.61 3 U.S. San Francisco Peninsula, CA $18.25 Turkey Izmir $2.79 4 Switzerland Geneva $17.97 Turkey Ankara $3.07 5 Singapore Singapore $16.68 India NCR $3.27 6 Japan Tokyo $14.71 India Chennai $3.41 7 Norway Oslo $14.68 U.S. Memphis, TN $3.61 8 U.S. San Francisco North Bay, CA $14.62 India Kolkata $3.70 9 U.S. Puget Sound - Eastside $14.31 Greece Thessaloniki $3.72 10 Switzerland Zurich $13.97 U.S. Columbus, OH $3.95 11 U.S. Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA $13.93 U.S. Greenville, SC $4.
展开阅读全文