资源描述
1 2 3 4:JKemp Energy,CFTC5 2018GAMMA:bloomberg6 OPEC:bloomberg7 11 109 10119 WTI 7 11 16WTI BRENT contangoOPEC340/(KRG)OPEC11 26 OPEC:wind OPEC Kpler8:IMFAverage20002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE1Oil exportersAlgeria 102.1 89.6 111.4 85.7 112.4 111.9Azerbaijan 51.9 66.3 57.9 63.6 77.0 78.2Bahrain 83.2 113.7 134.8 133.6 126.2 129.1Iran 85.6 546.5 259.4 278.3 351.7 375.4Iraq 75.8 56.6 53.3 66.3 75.8 76.4Kazakhstan.192.1 183.5 95.5 99.8 83.9Kuw ait246.8 76.2 62.4 63.2 70.7 66.3Libya 71.7 141.7 52.0 85.1 64.4 62.2Oman 69.1 86.4 76.7 62.1 72.2 66.4Qatar 45.1 49.3 46.5 44.7 44.8 41.5Saudi Arabia 80.4 76.3 83.6 85.8 80.9 75.1Turkmenistan.40.5 32.3 37.3 38.1 40.0United Arab Emirates 49.9 51.7 53.1 55.1 55.6 54.8ProjectionsOil exportersAlgeria 85.2 80.2 79.4 75.2 74.2 83.5Azerbaijan 57.4 64.8 69.5 85.9 60.4 63.1Bahrain 52.5 84.6 34.6 39.4 40.5 45.7Iran 40.4 36.7 44.5 48.8 47.2 44.1Iraq 65.3 53.7 56.1 75.7 67.4 76.5Kazakhstan 86.7 80.5 123.9 65.8 102.4 96.2Kuw ait 37.8 37.1 33.0 43.4 45.1 46.2Libya 54.3 58.0 57.2 86.0 61.5 55.5Oman 71.3 75.6 75.7 85.1 64.1 62.2Qatar 50.6 43.5 43.4 46.3 40.2 42.7Saudi Arabia 55.4 50.8 57.1 52.7 54.7 57.0Turkmenistan.25.9 21.7 31.4 30.7 31.8United Arab Emirates 45.7 18.5 16.8 36.8 39.4 35.311 17 OPEC OPEC11 26 OPEC11 18100/+11 26100/11 26 OPEC2024 H1OPEC2024OPEC9 wind bloomberg10:bloomberg GasBuddy2022 EIA 202311 IEA EIAIEA 10 12IEA 121-11 812 2001Q3-2001Q4 9112002Q1-2008Q240%2008 140/700%2008Q3-2009Q1 2007 20082009Q2-2009Q42010Q1-2011Q22011Q3-2014Q22014Q2-2016Q120142016Q2-2018Q3 OPEC2018Q4-2019Q42020Q1-2021Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 20212022Q1OPEC+13:美国 C P I 下降 时间 段 美国 C P I 下降 时长 W T I 油价 走势 W T I 实际 价格 W T I 累计 涨跌 幅1 9 8 3-0 4 1 9 8 3-0 7 3 个月 小幅上升 2 9.8 5 3 2 2.2%1 9 8 6-0 1 1 9 8 6-1 2 1 1 个月 先下降后上升 1 9.6 6 1 0.4 1 8-1.7%1 9 9 0-1 1 1 9 9 2-0 1 1 4 个月 下降 3 0.9 1 8.9-12.0%1 9 9 6-1 2 1 9 9 8-0 2 1 4 个月 下降 2 5.9 2 1 5.5-10.4%2 0 0 1-0 5 2 0 0 2-0 1 8 个月 下降 2 8.3 7 1 9.4 8-8.9%2 0 0 3-0 3 2 0 0 4-0 2 1 1 个月 小幅上升 3 1.0 4 3 6.1 6 5.1%2 0 0 6-0 6 2 0 0 6-1 0 4 个月 下降 7 1.0 3 5 9.5 0-11.5%2 0 0 8-0 7 2 0 0 9-0 7 1 2 个月 下降 1 3 4.0 2 6 4.5 9-69.4%2 0 1 0-0 1 2 0 1 0-0 6 5 个月 先上升后回落 7 4.4 8 8 4.8 4 7 5.6 7 1.2%2 0 1 1-0 9 2 0 1 4-0 2 2 9 个月 先涨后跌，高位震荡 8 5.5 4 1 0 6.3 1 0 0.7 9 15.3%2 0 1 4-0 6 2 0 1 5-0 1 7 个月 下降 1 0 5.1 5 4 7.3 4-57.8%2 0 2 0-0 1 2 0 2 0-0 5 4 个月 下降 5 7.5 5 2 9.6 6-27.9%2 0 2 2-0 6 2 0 2 2-1 0 4 个月 下降 1 1 1.7 9 8 6.2 5-25.5%14:宏观如果是稳定变量需求稳定增长(过往10 年平均增速)供应(明确)-跟踪投产进度寻找供应 需求的细分品种寻找催化剂使需求增长加速A 品种当年供需改善，利润上升考虑行业竞争格局寻找行业龙头，产能弹性大的品种考虑估值是否低估全球宏观-动态变量逆全球化海外央行利率紧缩化工品需求预期的波动15:总量思路从历史经验判断PPI 及CPI 见底后顺周期反弹制造业景气周期的波动行业思路 库存周期国内外库存周期共振带来的补库提振需求行业周期供给放缓或出清需求出现实质改善行业利润偏高或偏低均值回归行业环境的变化导致利润中枢上移或下移催化剂16 Kpler wind17 bloomberg18 2023 H1-Q419 EIA windEIA HFIEIA HFI 20221,300/1,240/40/EIA100/EIA 8 100/2022 EIA 2022 EIAEIA20 EIA IEA2022 OPECOPEC IEA 2023 7 2024100/2024 721 IEA2021 2025-2026LNG22 IEA23 IEALNG24 25 OPEC()OPECOPEC原油价格长期中枢将高于80 美元/桶长期看美国产量增速下降，新井成本抬升沙特等OPEC 国家长期需要高油价支撑财政平衡长期看中东市场份额增加，话语权增强长期看欧美高利率政策不可持续，但利率中枢可能抬升长期看实物商品的战略意义提升26 欧美消费国 抑制通胀利益交换，换取产油国增产放松对委内瑞拉及伊朗制裁希望将巴以控制在局部冲突，避免扩大化尚未看到明确制裁伊朗意愿避免制裁俄罗斯减少供应EIA 数据偏差的加大OPEC 国家油价维持高位保持市场份额控制供应提高需求预测受制裁国家增产阶段性可能引起内部分歧27 PKVerleger windEIA+/-200/1/Philip Verleger 192-3%1973-10 4 231.6-3.3 1979-10 2 15.1 0.2 1979-01 2 64.5-2.5 1979-05 1 30.7-0.2 1979-11 14 17.8-0.3 1980-09 2 28.4-1.5 1990-08 6 58.4-0.5 1999-01 12 43.5 0.1 2002-11 2 117.5-5.1 2008-08 4 11.2-1.2 2007-01 4 18.8-1.1 2007-12 6 31.1 0.7 2008-03 6 45.2-1.3 2011-01 3 27.7-0.7 2014-07 3 15.8 1.3 2017-01 7.8-1.7 2017-09 3 12.7-0.6 2017-11 12.7 0.5 2018-05-0.928 EIA IEAWorld oil demand and supply balance(a)Total world demand 91.19 97.13 99.62 101.74 101.26 102.06 103.18 102.06 103.76 103.43 104.74 105.28 104.31(b)Total non-OPEC liquids production and OPEC NGLs 68.27 69.18 71.21 73.16 72.91 72.82 72.46 72.83 73.74 73.85 74.43 75.11 74.282020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024Total OECD 29.31 29.77 30.97 32.04 32.09 32.67 32.87 32.42 33.10 32.99 33.41 33.85 33.34Total Non-OECD 31.64 31.85 32.44 33.21 32.87 32.26 31.70 32.50 32.63 32.80 33.00 33.24 32.92Total Non-OPEC liquids production 63.11 63.90 65.81 67.72 67.43 67.39 67.04 67.39 68.25 68.31 68.93 69.61 68.78OPEC crude oil production(secondary sources)Total liquids productionBalance(stock change and miscellaneous)Total Non-OPEC production 60.95 61.61 63.42 65.25 64.96 64.93 64.57 64.92 65.73 65.79 66.41 67.09 66.26Processing gains 2.16 2.29 2.40 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52OPEC NGL+non-conventional oils 5.17 5.28 5.39 5.44 5.47 5.43 5.43 5.44 5.49 5.54 5.50 5.50 5.5125.73 26.35 28.86 28.85 28.28 27.44 27.44 28.00 27.44 27.44 27.44 27.44 27.4494.00 95.53 100.07 102.01 101.18 100.26 99.90 100.84 101.18 101.29 101.87 102.55 101.722.81-1.60 0.45 0.27-0.08-1.79-3.27-1.22-2.59-2.14-2.87-2.73-2.581Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024Total Demand 100.4 101.7 102.6 102.5 101.8 101.1 102.6 104 103.5 102.8Total OECD Supply 28.3 28.4 28.6 29 28.6 29 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.2Total Non-OECD Supply 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.2Total Non-OPEC+Supply 49 49.7 50.3 50.3 49.8 50.3 51.1 51.6 51.4 51.1OPEC+Crude 44.6 43.8 42.7 42.9 43.5 43.9 43.9 43.8 43.9 43.9Total OPEC+Liquid 52.9 52.1 50.9 51.1 51.8 52.2 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.1Total Supply 101.9 101.8 101.2 101.4 101.6 102.5 103.3 103.7 103.5 103.2Stock Change 1.5 0.1-1.4-1.1-0.2 1.4 0.7-0.3 0 0.429 30 Rystad EnergyRystad 202248/7%36/40/130031 bloomberg32 2023IEA202333 IEAIEA 2023 7%20235%2023 201934 IEA2020-2023OPEC25%HESS IOC35 IEA2022 202236 IEA2019201537 38 2020 20232023 2 23 2023GDP 20222023 4 72018 11 17 10 739 wind Bloomberg 2022 11 212023 ROEROE40 2022wind2017 44.3-66.5 PB0.85-1.1;201850.3-87.3 1.02-1.550.812X0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%178155232309386463540617694771848925100210791156123313101387146415411618169517721849EOG 能源 康菲石油 中国海洋石油先锋能源 大陆能源 布伦特原油41 80/wind2023 12001300(/)2023 650-6601045.0242.0339.8234.6732.5430.3929.7826.342 30.394.05010203040502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023Q3/42 wind Bloomberg2022 ROE 2022 ROE EOG类型 代码 名称 净资产收益率 销售净利率 资产周转率 权益乘数COP US Equity 康菲石油 0.297 0.210 0.818 1.914OXY US Equity 西方石油 0.232 0.273 0.487 2.422DVN US Equity 戴文能源 0.357 0.315 0.846 2.109PXD US Equity 先锋能源 0.245 0.314 0.617 1.653EOG US Equity EOG 资源 0.248 0.366 0.646 1.670883 HK Equity 中国海洋石油 0.263 0.336 0.490 1.590600938.SH 中国海油 0.263 0.336 0.490 1.590纯油气标的平均-0.272 0.307 0.628 1.850XOM US Equity 埃克森美孚 0.265 0.156 1.090 1.789CVX US Equity 雪佛龙 0.161 0.154 0.920 1.595TTE FP Equity 道达尔集团 0.255 0.082 0.834 2.474BP/LN Equity BP 公司 0.282 0.105 0.865 3.196SHEL LN Equity 壳牌 0.187 0.114 0.899 2.195ENI IM Equity 埃尼 0.196 0.099 0.847 2.554EQNR NO Equity 挪威石油 0.266 0.204 0.913 2.667386 HK Equity 中国石油化工 0.085 0.023 1.730 2.460600028.SH 中国石化 0.085 0.020 1.730 2.460601857.SH 中国石油 0.113 0.046 1.250 1.970综合性油公司平均-0.190 0.100 1.108 2.336纯油气标的综合性油公司43 PV-10wind BloombergPV-10 PV-10 SEC PV-10 PV-10PV Proved PV-10 DCF SEC10%PV-10 PV-10 PV-10-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PV-10()PV-10 YoY(2022 PV-10-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PV-10()PV-10 YoY(PV-1044 2023wind 2023 2022 75%70%2 3%2023 15%5%232023 4-2023 10 80%22 40%-80%23 2023 11-2024 32 80%120%22 70%80%2023 10%22 1.68/0.168/23 2023 2022 80%2022 LNG 3.1-3.6/2023 2023 519 1.68/36%15%18%2023 10%6.5%27.6%10.0%15%3%20%120%42%3%55%45 IEA westwood global energy2023 LNG LNG202446 IEA westwood global energy2023 202347-EniRefinery(%)2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023Q2E 2023Q3E 2023Q4E 2022E 2023EEurope 74%77%77%76%76%76%79%78%76%77%Fsu East 85%76%83%84%78%81%80%81%82%80%Asia 80%77%77%79%79%78%79%80%78%79%Middle East 74%75%76%78%79%81%83%82%76%81%Africa 55%54%53%54%51%49%52%61%54%53%North America 87%89%89%87%87%88%87%86%88%87%Central&South America 53%59%60%61%59%57%59%57%58%58%World 78%77%78%78%78%78%79%79%78%78%48-wind Kpler0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%PX PTA-50000500010000150002000025000-4000-3000-2000-10000100020003000400050006000-49 wind 2023 CPI020406080100120140-200-1000100200300400500600700(,)(/)-150-100-50050100150200250020406080100120140/50/+4000 2040 51%PX+900 459 51%160 160 100%1060 2659PTA600 508 84.60%600 306 51%550 165 30%210 105 50%1950 1084110 110 100%20 14 70%130 124200 100 50%70 59.22 84.60%270 159.2225 17.5 70%+“4000 EVA POE ABS DMC 202351 windQ3 12.34+1367%+262%12.58+580%2023Q3/PX/PTA/LLDPE/HDPE/PP/MTBE+4.15%/+5.41%/+3.93%/+1.99%/+7.06%/+0.08%/+1.83%/+3.49%/+1.76%/+2.95%2023Q3 86.58/+10.32%2022 8 17 70/EVA 100/LDPE 18/PMMA 160/ABS35-40/POE1000 11 9 1479.6 1000140()/140-35 2730 POE 40 6638-1 8 SAR 2027 100 100120 60 6040 EVA 30 A 2425 LDPE 3025 30HDPE35 25/ABS 40 28 LDPE 70HRG 10 66 50 EVA 406 60 DMC 2010 1,4-50 PMMA 183 PBS 20 ABS 12020PTMG1280 NMP 3-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.002018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3 52 2000 202353 6 2066.33%33.67%100%PBT24 PBT 38.6 BOPET3.3 PBAT PBS/PBAT2022 110.46 61.46 2022 2.19 2023 2023 4547 10 15 PBT 8 PBAT 2023 5 31 4.4 2022 126 2024 34.4 1816(PP)(PE)PE PP200054 2000 PBT 24PX 520 PBAT 3.3180 160120 DMC 2085 ABS 3072 A 2340 PC 2640 PBS/PBAT/PBT 4514 47150 10PTA 1660 PBT 15PBAT 815 BDO 1,4 4115 PTMEG 6POY 30 10POY 3060-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00-55 C2/C3wind PDH 2023Q4 C22023Q1/2023Q2/2023Q3 24.95/20.58/23.37/50/2023Q3LLDPE 8352/+1.3%HDPE9110/+1.83%PDH-2023 PDH(500)05001,00005001000150017-08 18-08 19-08 20-08 21-08 22-08 23-08价差:丙烯-1.2 丙烷(美元/吨，右 轴)现货价(中间价):丙烯:CFR 中国现货价:丙烷(冷冻货):CFR 华东-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00(%)-500.000.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00(%)202356 C2-ETP-2022 8 PDH 2023EAA 2023 6-POE-/1252021 5 EO/EG 146/182HDPE 40501252022 8 HDPE 406073802022 32075-POE 10-2502026-50POE 60100PVC 805-1.5ETP/Energy Transfer PartenersMarcus Hook Pennsylvania 140115Borealis 25Enterprise Product Parteners Morgan s Point Houston 410Reliance 150100Sabic 100Braskem 2040Energy Transfer PartenersNederland TerminalTexas 36531352AEC Martin Terminal Beaumont 1000-wind57 23H1 70%23H1 79%58 2023 46%65%/59-C2-C5 2022 720/700/440/120/2022 40%2023 2024 96 1922024 90/2023700/120/60 20 200/60 103 8930%700-1200/DMTO/60 141 103 1.7260 152 89 1.5100 197 1.97300 478 1.5960 175 2.92-70 220 3.1460 144 2.402019/0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-61 100/25 EVA300/20232024120 5201000/120/2025 520/2021 2022E 2023E 2024E60 60 110 11060 60 110 110EVA 25 2520 2010 10400 700 700 700720 720 812 10021501501000/62 2023H1 2024wind 2023H1 202314-15 8.59 Q2 2024 2024 200 20232023051015202530354045502018-082018-102018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10FDY POY DTY 020406080100120140-1000010002000300040005000PX/PTA/POY/POY/63 CR4 70%100-200/CR6 2016 37.56%2021 57%12%5%8%5%5%3%62%18%13%13%6%5%2%43%2023/2023/PTA500 630 801020 1170 150wind64 EVA-EVA1+N EVA EVA 30EVA EVA2023H1EVA 40%EVA 60EVA.1600 2022 1+N2022 2023 31+NEVA POE PBAT1+N020406080100120 GW/1600PX 280PTA 390110MTO 240PDH 703307025EVA 30 60POE 103030UHMWPE 2EC/DMC 1078 26MMA 25.5EO 3020BDO 15PBAT 1265-LAOLAO()LAO00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.501002003004005006007008009002001 2003 2005 2006 2007 2016 2018 2022-45%14%14%9%7%4%3%1%3%357C6 C4 1-21112.5 1-90%112 1-50%7030 C4 1-55 1-1-CPChem,106Ineos,72Shell,135Raven,12Sasol,11others,21LAO CPChem INEOS Shell LAO2022 LAO 800 1-150357 45%LAO95%LAOCP Chemical Ineos Shell78%LAO 112 C4LAO66-2025 LAO 122 LAOC4 90%POEPAO 2025 LAO 122 LAO 3611.15 LAO 2036%15%11%3%14%9%5%7%LAO0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%01000200030004000500060002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EPE%202167-LAOLAO POE LAO 56%2024 LAO LLDPE HDPE POELAOC418%C624%C818%C1010%C1210%C145%C166%C184%C20+5%C493%C102%C14-C184%1%C6 LAO68 POE-N POE POE POE N EVA POE PIDN POE EPEN topcpn PP540WpN555Wp540 55520.90%21.48%PB0S2278X1134 2278X113449.73 50.4713.89 14.07-0.35%/-0.30%/N70 5%80 5%2%1%N0.45%0.4%POE E VA69 POE-N POEEVA POE2020 2021E 2022E 2023EGW 136.9 160.0 240.0 340.0GW164.28 192 288 408N 14%13%15%16%N GW 23.00 24.96 43.20 65.28P 86%87%85%84%P GW 19.78 21.72 36.72 54.84EVA/GW 5000 5000 5000 5000EVA 70.64 83.52 122.40 171.36YoY 18%47%40%POE/GW)5100 5100 5100 5100POE 11.73 12.73 22.03 33.29YoY 9%73%51%POE POEPOEPOE POEPOE-()70(PMIA)(PPTA)2020 8-9 2.2 2025 3.5CAGR 10%5006500 110002021(/)2021(/)()35000 32000 7000 6000 3200 2000 1000()1200()1000()5000 500 93900()30000 11000 5000 4500 1500 1000 5300071-C3 6PPD2022 60 PDH 65/24 A 40 PO 15ECH 21%2021 37HPPO ECH 20 5000 20224000 UD 6PPD 60 PDH 65 24 A 40 PO 15 ECH 139.13 122.80 11.84 4.49 6.37 13.25%110.11 17.15 72 0 173 0 1 33002021 334285%LCOE522502030 25%2030 76011762022 6400 750 1538 400 4500 800 92000 300 22502022E2023E 2024E 2025E 2030E 2250 2363 2481 2605 2735 1%3%5%8%25%30 39 51 66 100 53 110 175 274 784/kg 30 27 24.3 21.87 15 158 297 425 600 11762030 1176CNKI74 0 1“”“”3.0 205030%“”20“”PDH 90 3.6250 1475 00.10.20.30.402000400060008000100002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E%00.050.10.150.20200040006000800010000%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%02000400060002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EPE%00.10.20.3020004000600080002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EPP%76 2021 36%77 ADHO PDH 2023 4 69.36wind2023 58%PDH78 wind 11 1079 80 81 82
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