资源描述
SAC S0850519100002 SAC S0850516070002 2023 3 5 1 2 Dicks Sporting Goods Deckers Lululemon Nike 2021 2020.3 FY1 PE 3 4 5 2021 2021 2020.3 2021 Nike 1854.2 Nike Converse Jordan 467.1 60.5 142.1%Lululemon 381.5 Lululemon 62.6 9.8 170.2%VF 102.2 Vans North Face Timberland Dickies 118.4 13.9 26.2%Dicks Sporting Goods 108.0 Nike Aidas UA 122.9 15.2 579.9%Deckers 110.9 Hoka UGG Teva 31.5 4.5 230.8%Skechers 71.3 Skechers 62.9 7.4 110.6%Columbia 55.6 Columbia Sorel Mountain Hardwear Prana 31.3 3.5 63.1%2 Bloomberg 2023 3 3 2021 Nike FY2022 21/6/1-22/5/31 Lululemon FY2021 21/2/1-22/1/30 VF FY2022 21/4/1-22/4/2 Dicks Sporting Goods FY2021 21/1/29-22/1/29 Deckers FY2022 21/5/19-22/5/19 Skechers Columbia FY2021 2021/1/1-2021/12/31 YWBYzQrMtQnMqOtQqNsNnMbR8QbRsQpPmOtQeRoOpMkPnNoQ7NmNpMMYsOwPuOqQmM0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%010002000300040005000600070002017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-09%10%20%30%40%50%60%100001200014000160001800020000220002017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-09%2020 4 33.8%2020 4 21Q1 21 3 2022 2 2020 3 Wind 4 2020 2021 2022 2 月 部分中国工厂运营中断 3 月中起，欧美客户受封城影响，导致运输延期及订单取消 Q2 全球运力大幅削减，诸多运营商暂停服务 上半年全球海运运输量下降25%下半年，供应弹性下降，新冠疫情导致物流延误及拥堵，集装箱运费大幅上涨 11 月底，国内进出境船舶数量同比下降28.5%2020 全年，全球海运贸易同比萎缩3.8%3 月，苏伊士运河关闭，海运运费进一步上涨 7-10月，越南南部供应链受到疫情影响 同行业越南南部工厂持续运行 6 月，上海出口集装箱指数创新高，海运价格持续上涨 年初，集装箱运价仍处高位，但部分航线运价开始下降 2-3 月奥密克戎影响到越南全境 Q2，集装箱运价开始下降 8-9 月，部分航线运价出现两位数降幅，到9月第三周上海集装箱运价指数较年初下跌近60%，但运价仍是疫情前平均水平的两倍多 4 月，参考adidas 数据，我们估计全球商店闭店率超过70%，中国疫情形势有所缓和，零售表现提升 9 月，参考adidas 数据，我们估计全球商店开店率超95%10-12 月，欧美零售表现提升 5-6 月，欧美市场零售门店逐渐放开 一季度，欧美二次封城，参考adidas 数据，我们估计全球商店开店率89%3-5 月，多个国家开始注射疫苗，欧美封城政策逐渐放开 6 月，参考adidas 数据，我们估计全球商店开店率97%4-5 月，奥密克戎影响中国，部分城市防疫形势严峻 6 月，上海封控及中国大部分城市封控措施解除 3 月，NBA、NCAA、NFL、MLB、NHL、欧冠、F1 宣布停赛，东京奥运会、欧洲杯宣布延期 7 月，NBA、F1、MLB 复赛 8 月，欧冠，NHL 复赛 9 月，NFL 复赛 11 月，NCAA 复赛 7 月，2022 亚运会宣布延期一年 7 月，东京奥运会举办 6 月，欧洲杯举办 1 月，F1 宣布2021 年中国大奖赛取消 10月，F1 宣布2022 年中国大奖赛取消 2020-2022 2022 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2022 2.19 2.18 2.02 2021 1.86 1.80 1.84 2.10 2020 2.29 2.43 9.13 3.12 2019 2.37 2.40 2.44 2.46 2018 2.42 2.40 2.41 2.44 2017 2.44 2.44 2.46 2.45 2016 2.46 2.46 2.49 2.48 2015 2.49 2.45 2.43 2.44 2014 2.41 2.42 2.41 2.46 2013 2.42 2.40 2.36 2.33 2012 2.34 2.34 2.30 2.24 2011 2.31 2.29 2.27 2.28 2010 2.29 2.34 2.32 2.31%2019 2020 2021 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 2.7 2.9 5.5 4.5 4.6-5.8-20.3-5.8 2.2 3.4 3.6 6.6 5.9 4.2 3.2 9.3 6.9 30.3 53.7 29.0 19.8 2.9 2.8 3.7 0.9 3.1 27.8 10.7 12.7 10.1 9.0 7.3 8.1 7.3 8.5 6.9 9.5 9.4-12.8 1.2 0.1 2.7-0.6-1.5 4.6 3.8 2.4-49.1-87.3-62.7-22.7-20.6-18.6-6.9-9.4-14.3-13.9-8.3-12.5 109.3 739.9 199.1 50.5 4.9 0.9 5.6 3.5 1.5-16.4-44.7-3.9 21.3 18.1 10.8 17.3 15.2 17.3 14.8 27.5 18.0 73.5 153.6 40.9 8.7 0.7-1.0 1.9 1.1 2.6 8.4-5.5 1.6 2.8 1.2-0.1 4.9 3.0 2.4-0.2 9.4 3.6 8.2 21.0 9.9 9.5 2010 2019 2021%20 3-5 2021Q2-Q4 2 10 5 Wind 1YR forward PE 010203040506006/03/201906/19/201907/05/201907/23/201908/08/201908/26/201909/11/201909/27/201910/15/201910/31/201911/18/201912/04/201912/20/201901/09/202001/28/202002/13/202003/03/202003/19/202004/06/202004/23/202005/11/202005/28/202006/15/202007/01/202007/20/202008/05/202008/21/202009/08/202009/24/202010/12/202010/28/202011/13/202012/01/202012/17/202001/06/202101/22/202102/09/202102/25/202103/15/202103/31/202104/19/202105/05/202105/21/202106/08/202106/24/202107/12/202107/28/202108/13/202108/31/202109/16/202110/04/202110/20/202111/05/202111/23/202112/09/202112/28/202101/14/202202/02/202202/24/202203/16/202204/01/202204/21/202205/09/202205/25/202206/13/202206/30/202207/19/202208/04/202208/22/202209/08/202209/26/202210/12/202210/28/202211/15/202212/02/2022Nike Lululemon VF Columbia Deckers Dicks Sporting Goods Skechers FY 1 PE 6 Bloomberg FY 1 PE 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 12/1-2/28 103.3 101.0 63.1 105.9 112.4 103.6 123.4 122.5 113.6 108.7 122.34 126.87 10.2%5.1%-38.0%-0.6%8.9%2.5%95.5%15.6%1.0%5.0%-0.9%3.6%Deckers 1/1-3/31 9.4 3.7 2.8 6.2 10.8 5.6 5.0 7.2 11.9 7.4 6.1 8.8 7.4%-4.9%2.3%15.0%14.8%49.7%78.2%15.8%10.2%31.2%21.8%21.3%Skechers 1/1-3/31 13.3 12.4 7.3 13.0 13.2 14.3 16.6 15.5 16.5 18.2 18.7 18.8 23.1%-2.9%-42.1%-3.6%-0.4%15.5%127.8%19.2%24.4%26.8%12.4%21.1%VF 12/29-3/28 31.6 21.0 10.8 26.1 29.7 25.8 21.9 32.0 36.2 28.2 22.6 30.8 4.9%-10.8%-47.5%-18.0%-5.8%22.8%103.8%22.6%22.0%9.4%3.1%-3.7%Columbia 1/1-3/31 9.5 5.7 3.2 7.0 9.2 6.3 5.7 8.1 11.3 7.6 5.8 9.6 4.0%-13.3%-39.7%-22.7%-4.0%10.2%78.5%14.8%23.3%21.7%2.1%18.6%Lululemon 2/2-5/3 14.0 6.5 9.0 11.2 17.3 12.3 14.5 14.5 21.3 16.1 18.7 18.6 19.7%-16.7%2.2%22.0%23.8%88.1%60.7%29.8%23.1%31.6%28.8%28.0%Dicks Sporting Goods 2/2-5/2 26.1 13.3 27.1 24.1 31.3 29.2 32.7 27.5 33.5 27.0 31.1 29.6 4.7%-30.6%20.1%22.9%19.8%118.9%20.7%13.9%7.3%-7.5%-5.0%7.7%2020 Q1 3 20Q4 Dicks Sporintg Goods Deckers Lululemon 2020 Dicks Sporintg Goods Deckers 69%Lululemon 71%21H2 Lululemon Hoka 7 Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon Dicks Sporting Goods 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 5.3%4.4%-46.5%-2.0%1.0%-10.0%141.0%15.0%12.0%9.0%-5.0%12.9%Skechers 3.3%-7.0%165.6%28.4%15.0%30.5%20.9%16.1%VF 3.0%-10.0%-54.0%-21.0%-11.0%25.0%125.0%27.0%24.0%12.2%6.0%-3.0%Columbia 7.6%-8.7%-42.1%-23.2%-5.5%8.8%107.1%14.3%27.2%22.7%8.7%19.0%Lululemon 20.0%-17.0%-4.2%20.1%23.3%85.0%67.2%26.6%19.1%29.3%28.3%29.1%Deckers 12.7%-8.4%10.2%19.4%19.3%64.3%82.4%20.4%3.3%37.4%14.4%Skechers 19Q4 VF 19Q4-22Q1 Lululemon EMEA EMEA 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 9.7%11.3%-46.0%5.0%17.0%-4.0%124.0%14.0%6.0%7.0%9.0%0.8%Skechers-10.3%178.5%14.1%93.0%49.3%7.6%47.6%VF 4.0%-7.0%-48.0%-16.0%1.0%11.0%126.0%19.0%26.0%15.1%10.1%-4.0%Columbia 6.4%-21.1%-37.0%-4.8%-14.0%26.8%53.4%10.1%32.6%33.8%-34.8%41.3%EMEA/21Q1 20Q2 8 Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon APAC 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 13.1%8.2%-41.9%-18.0%0.0%-7.0%82.0%33.0%-8.0%11.0%15.0%4.8%Skechers-71.9%60.8%8.9%14.4%4.4%0.2%8.4%VF 14.0%-23.0%-12.0%2.0%6.0%71.0%32.0%13.0%5.0%-11.4%-20.1%-6.0%Columbia-3.9%-22.6%-34.3%-26.0%-4.7%8.7%16.4%13.2%5.5%8.9%-6.4%11.7%Nike Columbia APLA 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 19.6%-5.2%-2.9%6.0%24.0%51.0%17.0%11.0%-20.0%-5.0%-19.0%-16.4%Skechers-174.4%50.9%10.0%8.6%9.0%-19.6%-18.5%VF 30.0%-33.0%0.0%16.0%18.0%81.0%19.0%9.0%-6.0%-13%-33%-10-20%20-25%40-45%35-40%10-20%10-20%10-20%30-40%10-20%10-20%80-90%90-100%40-50%30-40%20-30%40-50%20%+20-25%55%30-35%20-25%30-35%20-25%APAC 9 Nike Skechers VF Columbia 19Q4-22Q3 2020 10 71%15%14%64%17%12%7%APLAEMEA 69%31%Nike 41%27%19%13%EMEA APLADeckers 50%20%31%EMEAAPACSkechers VF 50%5%28%17%EMEAAPACColumbia Lululemon Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 8.0%2.0%-48.1%-7.0%-2.0%-8.0%113.1%9.0%-5.0%-1.0%-6.6%1.0%Deckers 8.9%-2.9%-27.1%1.8%6.2%41.4%140.3%20.7%7.3%37.6%24.7%16.7%Skechers 24.8%-9.1%-54.9%-10.9%-22.9%6.4%149.9%12.1%25.9%32.7%18.3%26.1%VF 3.0%-11.0%-55.0%-19.0%-10.0%14.0%111.0%17.0%14.0%16.0%12.6%-4.0%Columbia 4.5%-10.2%-46.0%-27.7%-5.3%2.9%89.1%9.9%13.1%21.7%-0.8%24.5%DTC 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 15.0%11.0%-16.9%12.0%32.0%20.0%73.0%28.0%9.0%15.0%7.0%8.0%Deckers 5.6%-7.9%74.2%74.2%25.7%63.0%14.7%2.8%13.4%22.2%15.4%15.4%Skechers 19.4%19.7%-14.2%13.1%53.7%35.9%101.5%33.1%22.8%15.7%4.3%11.9%VF 7.0%-11.0%-37.0%-17.0%-2.0%36.0%97.0%32.0%30.0%1.1%-6.9%-4.0%Columbia 3.7%-16.9%-31.8%-9.7%-3.0%19.8%68.5%24.8%33.1%21.7%5.3%8.2%Lululemon 34.7%67.8%154.7%93.9%94.0%54.8%7.8%22.6%16.6%32.3%29.8%30.8%DTC 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 33%36%61%82%84%59%53%29%12%19%8%16%VF 16%8%78%44%53%106%25%24%21%-10%-18%-7%Columbia 72%55%41%35%5%6%25%21%-5%9%Lululemon 34.7%67.8%154.7%93.9%94.0%54.8%7.8%22.6%16.6%32.3%29.8%30.8%20Q2-Q4 40%DTC Lululemon 2020 38%21 21 DTC 11 Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon DTC 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 31.5%32.6%40.9%34.5%38.3%38.2%36.1%38.3%41.3%41.9%38.9%39.8%Deckers 44.1%38.5%49.4%27.6%48.2%41.9%31.8%24.5%49.6%39.0%30.1%27.3%Skechers 29.8%29.1%47.5%35.5%46.0%34.3%42.0%39.6%45.4%31.2%38.9%36.6%VF 49.3%40.0%50.7%34.6%51.3%44.3%48.9%37.3%54.7%41.0%44.2%37.2%Columbia 50.7%42.6%49.4%32.8%51.3%46.3%46.6%35.5%55.4%46.4%48.1%32.4%Lululemon 33.2%54.0%61.4%42.8%52.0%44.4%41.2%40.4%49.3%44.7%41.5%41.3%DTC 12 Nike Nike 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 12.6%13.9%26.9%17.9%21.3%21.2%21.1%20.4%23.8%24.8%22.9%22.9%Columbia 16.0%28.0%12.0%23.0%20.0%16.0%11.0%23.0%20.0%15.0%11.0%Lululemon 33.2%54.0%61.4%42.8%52.0%44.4%41.2%40.4%49.3%44.7%41.5%41.3%Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon Statista 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 11.2 8.5-7.1 15.2 12.5 14.5 15.1 18.7 13.4 14.0 14.39 14.7 31.6%-23.1%-179.9%11.1%12.2%71.1%291.0%23.5%6.9%-3.7%-4.6%-21.7%Deckers 2.0 0.2-0.1 1.0 2.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.3 0.7 0.4 1.0 2.7%-32.9%-58.8%30.5%26.8%107.9%703.6%0.5%-8.8%105.7%-6.8%-0.9%Skechers 0.6 0.5-0.7 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.0 4.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 25.7%-54.9%-190.6%-37.6%-10.4%133.2%337.6%60.3%655.0%18.9%-34.4%-16.6%VF 4.7-4.8-2.9 2.6 3.5 0.9 3.2 4.6 5.2 0.8-0.6-1.2 0.3%-475.5%-681.6%-60.6%-25.4%-118.5%213.7%80.8%49.1%-9.7%-117.3%-125.5%Columbia 1.1 0.0-0.5 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.9%-99.7%-317.4%-47.9%-15.8%600%182.0%61.3%63.5%19.6%-82.9%12.0%Lululemon 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 3.3 1.4 2.1 1.9 4.3 1.9 2.9 2.6 36.4%-70.4%-30.6%14.0%10.7%406.3%139.7%30.7%31.7%31.1%39.1%36.0%Dicks Sporting Goods 0.7-0.6 2.8 1.8 2.2 3.6 5.0 3.2 3.5 2.6 3.2 2.3-31.9%-211.8%146.0%207.8%214.5%662.4%79.0%78.6%58.0%-28.0%-35.7%-27.6%Lululemon 20Q1-20Q2 21Q1-21Q2 Lululemon Dicks Sporting Goods 13 Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon Dicks Sporting Goods 2021 5 2021Q2-Q4 2 10.14 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nike FY23Q1 43.8%44.7%43.4%44.8%46.0%44.3%5.3%10.3%6.8%12.9%12.9%11.7%Deckers FY23Q2 48.9%51.5%51.8%54.0%51.0%48.2%6.0%13.1%12.9%15.0%14.3%11.6%Skechers 22Q3 46.6%47.9%47.7%47.6%49.3%47.1%4.3%6.5%6.6%2.1%11.8%4.6%VF FY23Q2 50.5%50.7%55.3%52.7%54.5%51.4%5.2%12.3%6.5%4.4%11.7%-3.8%Columbia 22Q3 47.0%49.5%49.8%48.9%51.6%48.9%4.6%9.8%10.9%4.3%11.3%8.1%Lululemon 22Q3 52.8%55.2%55.9%56.0%57.7%55.9%9.8%14.7%16.2%13.4%15.6%13.8%Dicks Sporting Goods 22Q3 29.0%28.9%29.2%31.8%38.3%35.6%3.8%3.8%3.4%5.5%12.4%9.2%Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon Dicks Sporting Goods 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 Nike 62.0 58.1 73.7 67.1 60.9 66.9 68.5 67.0 65.1 77.0 84.2 96.6 15.1%7.2%31.0%14.9%-1.8%15.3%-7.0%-0.1%6.8%15.0%22.8%44.2%Deckers 3.7 3.1 4.4 4.8 3.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 5.5 5.1 8.4 9.3 7.0%11.8%-8.1%-13.4%-16.6%-10.7%5.2%31.4%80.4%82.2%83.4%45.4%Skechers 10.7 9.9 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.7 10.6 12.3 14.7 14.5 15.6 17.8 24.0%33.1%20.1%18.3%-5.0%8.2%2.8%16.8%44.6%35.9%48.0%44.6%VF 15.6 12.9 14.0 14.3 10.8 10.6 12.2 14.6 12.9 14.2 23.4 27.5 11.7%-9.7%1.5%-24.1%-31.2%-17.9%-13.3%2.1%19.6%33.6%92.4%87.7%Columbia 6.1 5.8 8.1 7.7 5.6 5.3 6.8 7.2 6.5 7.1 9.6 10.6 16.1%10.7%6.7%7.7%-8.1%-8.8%-16.2%-6.6%15.8%22.0%45.4%36.0%Lululemon 5.2 6.3 6.7 7.7 6.5 7.3 7.9 9.4 9.7 12.8 14.6 17.4 28.1%41.3%36.1%22.9%24.8%17.1%17.4%22.4%49.3%74.0%85.1%84.4%Dicks Sporting Goods 22.0 21.0 18.8 23.2 19.5 20.1 20.1 24.9 23.0 28.2 30.0 33.6 20.7%-2.1%-12.2%-9.8%-11.3%-4.0%7.2%7.3%17.6%44.6%48.9%67.1%2020 2 2020 15 Nike Deckers Skechers VF Columbia Lululemon Dicks Sporting Goods HOKA HOKA FY2018-FY2023Q1 Deckers Deckers Hoka FY19-22 30%FY23Q1 50%FY23Q1 HOKA EMEA 66%DTC 48%58%18-34 Adidas Nike Wind Deckers 2019Q1-2022Q2 16 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q2HOKA(%)8.1%11.0%16.5%22.4%28.3%53.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23Q1HOKA(%)6.1%5.9%5.9%6.8%7.4%8.1%0%5%10%15%FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022Deckers HOKA%2008-2009 2020 17 Euromonitor 18 PE(X)2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E NIKE NKE.N 1854.2 57.3 60.5 48.7 61.0 32.4 30.7 38.0 30.4 Adidas ADS.DF 274.2 4.3 21.2 6.0 1.6 63.5 13.0 45.5 172.5 Lululemon LULU.O 381.5 6.1 9.8 12.7 14.3 62.3 39.1 29.9 26.7 2020.HK 2607.7 51.6 77.2 73.3 94.5 50.5 33.8 35.6 27.6 VF VFC.N 102.2 4.1 12.2 8.1 8.6 25.1 8.4 12.6 11.9 2331.HK 1648.2 17.0 40.1 44.9 56.1 97.0 41.1 36.7 29.4 Puma PUM.DF 85.7 0.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 108.5 27.7 23.6 22.2 Deckers DECK.N 110.9 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.7 29.0 24.5 22.4 19.4 1368.HK 242.1 5.1 9.1 9.9 12.2 47.2 26.6 24.4 19.9 2313.HK 1176.0 51.1 33.7 46.2 55.3 23.0 34.9 25.5 21.3 300979.SZ 658.2 18.8 27.7 33.5 38.5 35.0 23.8 19.6 17.1 Nike Adidas Lululemon VF Puma Deckers Bloomberg 2023 3 3 19 20 SAC S0850519100002 021-23154510 Email SAC S0850516070002 021-23219407 Email 021-23219405 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%21 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
展开阅读全文