20240128_广发证券_公用事业行业深度跟踪：辅助服务再度加深电改央企考核提速公用事业化_26页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/26 T ab l e _ P ag e 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 T ab l e _ T i t l e T ab l e _ S u m mar y+8 11 2 023 2 02 4+2 02 5+80 200%/2024+50%+(A)/(H)(A)/(H)+(A)/(H)T a bl e _G r a de 2024-01-28 T ab l e _ P i cQ u o t e T ab l e _ A u t h o r SAC S0260514030003 SFC CE No.BNX688 021-38003655 SAC S0260521070002 021-38003624 SAC S0260524010002 021-38003618,T ab l e _ D o cRe p o r t:2024-01-21:2024-01-14:2024-01-01 T ab l e _ C o n t ac ts 021-38003800-23%-17%-11%-5%2%8%01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 600011.SH CNY 8.88 2023/10/25 11.09 0.92 1.04 9.65 8.54 2.34 2.06 11.80 11.70 00902.HK HKD 4.60 2023/10/25 5.19 0.92 1.04 4.98 4.43 1.10 0.97 11.80 11.70 600027.SH CNY 5.82 2023/10/31 7.67 0.59 0.71 9.86 8.20 2.76 2.48 9.00 10.10 01071.HK HKD 3.74 2023/10/31 4.90 0.59 0.71 6.34 5.28 1.61 1.45 9.00 10.10 600795.SH CNY 4.34 2023/10/29 5.91 0.39 0.46 11.13 9.43 1.57 1.43 13.90 14.80 600642.SH CNY 7.04 2024/01/14 9.18 0.69 0.76 10.20 9.26 3.78 3.37 10.00 10.60 600863.SH CNY 4.09 2023/10/27 5.01 0.42 0.46 9.74 8.89 3.39 3.16 14.10 14.10 600900.SH CNY 24.13 2024/01/21 28.92 1.12 1.45 21.54 16.64 9.88 8.62 12.10 15.00 Wind EPS 0YFUxOsPnOrQqOpMmRoRqRaQaO8OsQnNsQqMkPrRqRfQoNnN7NpPzRwMrMqRvPnPoO 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业.6.6/.8.9 2023 293GW 48%.11 23 24.13.14.14 23.19.21+.21 2010.21.23.23 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 1.6 2.6 3.9 4 2023 0.80%+0.15pct.10 5 2023.10 6 2023 2920GW.11 7 2023 47.6%.11 8 2023 1-12 355.6GW.11 9 2023 1-12+90.0%.11 10 2023 57.9GW.12 11 2023 8.0GW.12 12 2023 75.9GW.12 13 2023 216.9GW.12 14 2023 1.4GW.13 15 5500/.15 16 5500k.15 17/.15 18/.15 19/.16 20/.16 21.16 22.17 23.17 24.17 25.17 26/.18 27.19 28.19 29.19 30 LNG/.19 31 LNG/.20 32.20 33.20 34 2020 GFGY.22 35 GFGY 2021 8.22 36 GFGY PE 2010 32%.22 37 GFGY PB 2010 20%.22 38.22 39 2024.23 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 40.23 41 GFGY.23 1 2023.6 2 2023.7 3.8 4 GF.10 5.13 6.17 7.18 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 1 25 8 11 2023 2 024+2 02 5+1 2 Q4 80 200%2023+54%+21%+35%1 2023/2023 2022 2023 2023Q4 2022Q4 2023Q4 4.52-2.0 0.43 4.4-90%-6.0-4.5-6.8-4.8-3.3-7.3 3.14.2 1.2 197%-3.3-2.3-1.4-2.0-1.7 0.3-784%-2.2-1.9 2.8-173%13.115.0 4.3 230%0.12.0-0.1 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 61.173.2-18.3 1.413.6-22.9 33.035.0 10.8 214%8.010.0-0.6 22.323.3 19.1 19%6.17.1 3.7 78%15.820.4 11.6 56%-1.43.2-6.7 13.816.4 3.2 369%-0.91.7 1.0-64%5.15.4 3.0 72%-0.5-0.2-0.6 273.9 237.3 15%58.7 23.6 148%57.268.6 40.8 54%-3.38.1-0.5 44.0 35.2 25%5.6 6.0-6%11.312.3 32.1-63%0.01.0-0.1 73.5 70.3 5%19.1 9.9 94%15.016.5 13.9 14%0.52.0 2.2-43%8.99.4 6.7 36%-2.0-1.5-1.5 13.013.3 10.9 21%1.72.0 1.5 23%14.3 12.2 17%3.2 3.6-11%8.3 6.6 27%3.9 2.5 56%3.23.8 2.6 35%0.20.8 0.5 1%/2024/1/27/2 2023/2022 2023 2022Q4 2023Q4 4251.93 4478.56 5.33%1050.35 1104.76 5.18%2209.23 2237.95 1.30%537.80 510.82-5.02%1846.03 1932.64 4.69%464.44 500.79 7.83%1519.91 1632.38 7.40%361.54 424.59 17.44%627.84 753.91 20.08%172.01 182.81 6.28%610.69 607.15-0.58%148.88 148.01-0.58%537.14 551.11 2.60%137.42 135.47-1.42%329.07 323.62-1.66%81.11 83.47 2.91%223.37 241.89 8.29%73.83 66.30-10.20%201.11 236.42 17.56%48.92 66.18 35.27%2622.58 2762.63 5.34%564.54 729.26 29.18%1565.01 1617.75 3.37%381.34 407.73 6.92%1115.68 1070.61-4.04%235.98 242.02 2.56%47.87 52.31 9.27%13.51 12.40-8.22%706.32 762.26 7.92%191.79 207.21 8.04%483.52 551.79 14.12%130.36 151.46 16.19%415.37 285.07-31.37%73.59 66.45-9.70%84.81 84.32-0.58%17.94 19.82 10.48%2113.21 2282.90 8.03%589.73 585.83-0.66%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 1992.87 2098.58 5.30%531.78 536.94 0.97%20.29 25.19 24.10%0.69 6.02 766.67%/1 24 2023 3/PB LF/2023Q3/1009.30 1.91 3.63 950.69 0.38%5904.18 2.99 1.15 2,082.02 0.06%461.12 2.92 0.08 193.28 0.04%60.58 1.58 0.04 66.62 0.07%1569.60 2.93 0.73 571.13 0.13%1605.15 2.33 8.16 810.63 1.01%180.66 1.06 12.19 194.19 6.28%1273.72 1.59 3.16 928.22 0.34%206.80 0.91 1.16 228.51 0.51%189.06 1.17 0.70 172.14 0.41%55.63 1.32 0.08 42.79 0.19%117.19 1.00 0.62 213.59 0.29%1393.99 2.41 32.81 766.89 4.28%595.24 1.50 14.86 511.00 2.91%125.64 1.22 0.27 106.47 0.26%462.67 1.57 13.29 441.41 3.01%40.20 10.33 2.08 8.94 23.32%228.72 1.24 3.40 453.58 0.75%69.67 4.93 0.29 15.52 1.90%*ST 175.54 5.02 1.06 59.98 1.77%266.95 1.69 2.68 193.02 1.39%774.07 1.59 46.51 1,189.29 3.91%285.62 0.89 0.68 386.16 0.18%1802.80 1.60 0.82 1,646.44 0.05%1559.76 1.76 2.14 1,544.09 0.14%32.62 1.16 0.14 28.22 0.49%138.44 1.25 0.18 113.57 0.16%286.36 1.39-0.11 241.75-0.05%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 28.80 2.35 0.04 14.04 0.26%129.62 2.63 0.16 49.21 0.32%187.50 2.77 0.59 74.65 0.78%Wind 2024+50%+3 2023 0.80%0.15 2023 2023 0.80%2023Q3 0.15 0.30%0.07 2023 0.163%8-9 0.046%10 0.043%A H 3-7 0.071%0.070%0.069%0.065%0.065%0.117%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 4 2023 0.80%+0.15pct Wind GF 47=/)=+5 2023 Wind 4 GF 2 0 2 3/1 2/3 1 2 0 2 3/9/3 0 2 0 2 3/6/3 0 2 0 2 3/3/3 1 2 0 2 2/1 2/3 1 2 0 2 2/9/3 0 2 0 2 2/6/3 0 1 600900.SH 0.163%0.130%0.107%0.053%0.035%0.044%0.029%2 601985.SH 0.117%0.062%0.047%0.027%0.016%0.010%0.040%3 00836.HK 0.071%0.070%0.081%0.078%0.075%0.065%0.074%4 600011.SH 0.070%0.058%0.064%0.069%0.058%0.054%0.015%5 00902.HK 0.069%0.061%0.082%0.074%0.076%0.065%0.105%6 02380.HK 0.065%0.072%0.066%0.074%0.076%0.065%0.105%7 600027.SH 0.065%0.051%0.076%0.033%0.062%0.041%0.014%8 600025.SH 0.046%0.034%0.031%0.023%0.020%0.018%0.013%9 600674.SH 0.046%0.038%0.035%0.024%0.025%0.023%0.017%10 600886.SH 0.043%0.019%0.014%0.009%0.014%0.010%0.006%11 000543.SZ 0.027%0.028%0.020%0.004%0.006%0.002%0.000%12 01071.HK 0.024%0.021%0.026%0.006%0.076%0.065%0.105%0.23%0.39%0.80%0.63%0.65%0.80%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%GF 0.36%0.29%0.24%0.31%0.38%0.34%0.46%0.35%0.37%0.22%0.30%0.13%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%GF GF GF GF 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 13 600795.SH 0.018%0.006%0.005%0.002%0.004%0.013%0.009%14 600863.SH 0.017%0.012%0.023%0.003%0.003%0.015%0.013%15 00956.HK 0.015%0.013%0.000%0.014%0.076%0.065%0.105%Wind/2 0 2 3 2 9 3 GW 4 8%2023 2 920GW 4 7.6%2023 2023 2920GW 47.6%2022 52.0%36.0%2022 29.6%6 2023 2920GW 7 2023 47.6%Wind Wind 2023 1-12 3 55.6G W 82.3%2023 355.6GW 90.0%2023 75.9GW 216.9GW+105.4%+152.0%82.3%57.9GW 8.0GW 1.4GW 8 2023 1-12 355.6GW 9 2023 1-12+90.0%Wind 2023 12 Wind 1900 2010 2202 2377 2564 2920 6.9%5.8%9.6%7.9%7.9%13.9%0%3%6%9%12%15%0600120018002400300036002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%60.2%59.2%56.6%54.6%52.0%47.6%18.6%17.8%16.8%16.4%16.1%14.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/%/%/%/%/%/%35.1 59.0 84.4 110.5 141.0 172.2 198.6 226.3 250.1 283.1 355.6 0721442162883601-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12/GW2020 2021 2022 202349.5%85.8%99.4%108.6%104.0%103.9%106.1%97.4%95.5%94.2%90.0%-50%-10%30%70%110%150%1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12/%2021 2022 2023 2020-2022 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 202 3 5 7.9G W 8.0G W 2023 1-12 57.9GW 62.7%2023 1390GW+4.3%21-22 2023 2023 8.0GW 64.4%2023 422GW+1.9%10 2023 57.9GW 11 2023 8.0GW Wind Wind 2023 2023 75.9GW 105.4%216.9GW 152.0%2023 82.3%2023 2023 441 609GW 36.0%47.6%3 3 2023 1.4GW 12 2023 75.9GW 13 2023 216.9GW Wind Wind 1144 1190 1246 1297 1332 1390 3.5%4.0%4.8%4.1%2.7%4.3%0%2%4%6%8%10%0300600900120015002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%353 358 370 391 414 422 2.6%1.5%3.4%5.6%5.8%1.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%01002003004005002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%184 209 282 328 365 441 12.9%13.5%34.7%16.6%11.3%20.8%0%8%16%24%32%40%0901802703604502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%174 204 254 307 393 609 34.7%17.1%24.2%20.9%28.1%55.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%01302603905206502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 14 2023 1.4GW Wind 23 24 2024/1/22-2024/1/26 1 1 25 2024 2023 1.17 2024 2023 5.7+7.9%61.4%6845 47.3%2023+34%6700 3800 2 1 26 2023 2023 12 29.2+13.9%/4.22/13.90/0.57/4.41/6.09+1.8%/+4.1%/+2.4%/+20.7%/+55.2%2023 6000 3592-101/3133/4466-285/+76 5 2024/1/22 2024 1 2 45 49 50 53 56 57 24.7%9.1%2.4%6.8%4.3%2.5%0%6%12%18%24%30%012243648602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/GW/%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 2024/1/23 2023-2025 1 2025 2+3 2025 1 2000 14430 800 10 2024/1/24 1 2 2024/1/25 2024 1 23 1.17 24 2 23 5.7+7.9%61.4%6845 47.3%3 23+34%6700 3800 2024/1/26 2023 1 2023 12 29.2+13.9%/4.22/13.90/0.57/4.41/6.09+1.8%/+4.1%/+2.4%/+20.7%/+55.2%2 2023 6000 3592-101/3133/4466-285/+76 2023 6 14 5500 765/7 8 9 9001050/1 26 5500 926/12 34.2%1 24 730/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 15 5500/16 5500k 17/Wind Wind 1 26 Q4200 Q4800 Q5500 689 841 1000/-0.3%-0.4%-0.4%Q4200 Q5500 902/2023 5 6-8 9 Q 550 0 Q 4 200 Q 5 500 2 4/18/1599 1610 1230 926 40090014001900240029001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 202402004006008001000/02004006008001000 689841100040072010401360168020002021/11 2022/02 2022/05 2022/08 2022/11 2023/02 2023/05 2023/08 2023/11/Q4200 Q4800 Q5500 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 19/2023 1 27 5500 780 730 835/-10-8-5/20/2023 6 9-5-11-20+17 20 206 1 26 540 363 165 186 1254 18.6 21 60084010801320156018002021/11 2022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 2023/2 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 Q5500/Q4200 Q5500/0300600900120015002021/11 2022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 2023/2 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 Q5500/01703405106808502022/01 2022/04 2022/07 2022/10 2023/01 2023/04 2023/07 2023/10 2024/01 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 22 23 Wind:=Wind 2021 12 1 22 1 27 50.09+7.18%368.49/-0.78%350.77 305.61/-44.55%+8.92%24 25 2022 6 12 6/1 27 8.288 370.93-1 26 8.713 372.87 329.76 1 25 8.358 371.07 331.84 1 24 8.566 365.83 350.77 1 23 7.730 367.29 305.61 1 22 8.432 362.80 318.18 99.1/17191254 40072010401360168020001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12020 2021 2022 2023 2024250206 01002003004005001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12020 2021 2022 2023 202402571012300330360390420450/025710120150300450600750/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 2021 11 1 24 518.19/521.32/541.30/406.27/1 22 416.43/423.01/450.90/346.69/26/7/1 27 476.83 478.73 486.05 418.30 1 26 453.20 452.38 463.92 405.25 1 25 517.29 515.90 538.07 423.60 1 24 518.19 521.32 541.30 406.27 1 23 441.29 444.35 458.20 388.87 1 22 416.43 423.01 450.90 346.69 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 2024 2024 1 19 86%89%88%6.3 2 2 2 026052078010401300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 27 28 29 2 3 LNG 2023 61.88%30.81%2024 1 26 LNG 8.91/3291/12 7112/53.73%2023 61.88%LNG 1 26 LNG 5037/5.27%2023 30.81%30 LNG/Wind LNG/1 LNG=52 0%20%40%60%80%100%12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2021 2022 2023 20240%20%40%60%80%100%12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2021 2022 2023 20240%20%40%60%80%100%12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2021 2022 2023 202406000120001800024000300001 1 1 31 3 6 4 10 5 15 6 19 7 24 8 28 10 2 11 6 12 11 LNG/2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 31 LNG/Wind 3-7 2024 1 26 TTF 27.70/MWh 2.6%2023 61.7%JKM 2022 8 25 69.96/2024 1 26 9.29/3.1%2023 68.3%2024 1 26 NYMEX 2.72/7.9%2023 32.2%32 IPE Wind NYMEX Investing 2021/3/1 33 IPE Wind NYMEX Investing 02000400060008000100001 1 2 1 3 8 4 13 5 19 6 24 7 30 9 4 10 10 11 15 12 21 LNG/2020 2021 2022 2023 2024015304560750801602403204002021/3 2021/6 2021/9 2021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9 2022/12 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 TTF/MWh JKM/MMBtu NYMEX/MMBtu-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2021/3 2021/6 2021/9 2021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9 2022/12 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 TTF/%JKM/%NYMEX/%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业+1 22 2023 5.05 5.35 2023 86.33 13.37 A 1 24 1 168 2 460MW 29.98 1 24 1 2023 13 13.3 19.27%22.03%2 2023 2023 4.33 2023 32.56%33.31%3.40%3 2023 10 4.00 1 25 1 2023 2237.95+1.3%516.78/MWh 2 660MW 506MW 23 1 26 2023 13.1015.00+161.84%199.82%2 0 1 0 2020 2024 1 26 300 38.81 51.36%2024 4.08%GFGY PE-TTM 17.77 PE 2010 31.64%PB 1.71 2010 20.26%2021 8 300 54.17 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 34 2020 GFGY 35 GFGY 2021 8 Wind Wind 36 GFGY PE 2010 32%37 GFGY PB 2010 20%Wind Wind 38 Wind-30%0%30%60%90%120%GFGY 300-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%GFGY 300 0714212835 0.01.22.43.64.86.0()()51.36%-30%10%50%90%130%170%GFGY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 39 2024 Wind 1 5.6%5.4%3.7%3.1%0.7%2 9.6%8.6%7.8%40 41 GFGY Wind Wind 7-8 9 4.08%-15%-9%-3%3%9%15%GFGY 5.6%5.4%3.6%3.1%0.7%0.0%1.2%2.4%3.6%4.8%6.0%GF GF GF GF GF9.6%8.6%7.8%6.6%6.6%-0.9%-0.9%-1.2%-1.9%-2.2%-5%-2%1%4%7%10%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业 T able_ResearchT eam 2019 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 T a bl e _R a t i n gI ndus t r y 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%T a bl e _R a t i n gC o m pa ny 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%T able_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-T able_LegalD isclai mer/4 T able_I mportant N o tices 1 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 26/26 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 跟踪分 析|公用 事业/5 T a b l e _I nt e re s t D i s c l os ure(1)12 T able_Copyright