资源描述
SAC S0850513110005 SAC S0850523040001 2023 6 6 CXO 2022 23 CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 1 1ZCXwPrMnOmNrPtQsPrOpO9PdN7NoMrRtRtQlOoOqOkPmMtNbRpPzRvPrNwONZqQmP CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 2 2022 CXO 22 23 CXO 2023 CXO 1 CXO 2022 2023 2 CDMO 3 CXO 4 CXO CXO CXO CXO 3 CXO 22 23 23 CXO CXO 23 Wind 2022 4 22 22 yoy 22 22 22 yoy 23Q1 23Q1 yoy 23Q1 23Q1 yoy 23Q1 CRO 393.5 72%36%94.0 83%89.6 5.8 23.0 14%40%102.7 38%36%18.3 25%27.2 29.5 4.4 20%36%22.7 50%49%10.7 93%3.7 36.3 1.9 50%52%CRO 70.9 36%43%15.4 25%18.0-0.7 3.8 1%40%6.4 5%38%1.1 14%1.6-5.5 0.3 8%36%5.9 17%26%0.7 25%1.6 30.0 0.3 160%25%CDMO 214.5 165%/61.6 193%/152.7 48%47%49.3 49%/102.6 121%44%33.0 209%22.5 22.5 6.3 26%48%70.3 126%41%20.1 283%13.8 13.8 3.0-20%50%2.9 14%52%0.4-28%0.3 0.3-0.3-363%-21%Non-IFRS Non-IFRS CXO 22 23 4 1 CDMO 2 CRO biotech Wind 2022 5 22 22 yoy 22 23Q1 23Q1 yoy 23Q1 2.94 38%63.82%0.68-7%65.4%7.98 34%44.23%/0.29 16%/8.34 38%44.11%2.52 42%43.51%2.46 78%/3.53 40%60.16%/5.17 31%71.29%1.4 21%69.21%3.03 10%41.47%0.87 19%39.78%4.06 2.64 53.8%/CRO 26.08 21%21.83%6.55 13%19.88%3.78 31%58.65%0.87-5%61.61%22 23 5 CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 6 2026 52.2%60.5%US CRO outsourcing rate,2017-2026E China CRO outsourcing rate,2017-2026E 7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Outsourcing In-house0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Outsourcing In-house 22 2022 20109 2021 8%11351 11%1 2947 10%2 2922 6%3 1119 9%PharmaProjects 2013-2022 020004000600080001000012000 1 2 3 2021 2022 2022 vs2021 11%10%6%9%8 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%030006000900012000150001800021000240002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%IND 2022 FDA IND 2022 2021 2021 IND 2068 2022 1865 10%NMPA IND 2022 2021 2021 IND 496 2022 475 4%IND 1 2 Me too FDA 2014-2022 FDA IND 2014-2022 NMPA IND 0501001502002503003504004505002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 IND 12001400160018002000220024002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022FDA IND 9 2022 FDA NMEs/BLAs 2022 2021 2021 50 2022 37 NMPA IND 2022 2021 2021 IND 29 2022 24 Nature Reviews 2014-2022 FDA NMEs/BLAs 2014-2022 NMPA NDA/BLA 051015202530352014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022NMPA NDA/BLA 0510152025303540455055602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022FDA NMEs/BLAs 10 86.5 88.9 91.4 105.4 114.4 122.9 131.5 140.2 148.6 156.7 164.6 171.8 178.7 185.0 52.3 54.3 56.4 61.7 67.6 73.7 80.0 86.3 92.9 99.2 105.4 111.3 117.1 122.6 26.3 30.8 34.6 37.7 42.1 47.2 52.7 58.8 65.3 72.9 81.1 90.0 99.7 110.2 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E US$bn Large pharma Mid-size pharma Small Pharma/Biotechs/Virtual Pharma 2021-2025 CAGR 8%12%2022 2438 Large Pharma 50.4%2017 2.0pp 2026 47.7%Period Large pharma Mid-size pharma Small pharma/Biotechs/Virtual pharma Total 2017-2021 7.2%6.6%12.5%7.9%2021-2025E 6.7%8.3%11.6%8.2%2025E-2030E 4.5%5.7%11.0%6.4%MNC Biotech 11 22 2013 820 2022 1380 CAGR 5.3%2022 2021 1.5%2013 17%2022 19%2020 IQVIA 2013-2022 12 16%16%17%17%18%18%19%19%20%20%21%03060901201502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2022 278 2021 540 49%2023 2023 Q1 71 32%2023 54 20%22 23 2022 1-2023 3 2017-2022 13 48 27 29 27 28 34 23 24 25 25 30 22 28 20 23-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0102030405060 yoy%131 240 229 359 540 278-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%2022 2022 71.2 2021 179.0 60%2023 16.35 54%14 2022 1-2023 3 2016-2022 14 20 6 10 6 8 8 8 13 4 2 6 7 8 5 3-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0510152025 yoy%17 20 57 40 100 179 71-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0204060801001201401601802002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%2022 220 2012 23 VC 2012 Healthcare Investments and Exits Annual Report 2022 2012-2022 15-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%051015202530352012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 16 18.96 4.0 3.25 4.75 1.51 0.57 23.80 6.29 4.49 5.89 2.64 0.92 80.24 32.63 10.53 6.66 6.74 2.44 1.32 111.98 45.66 14.83 11.67 6.97 3.11 2.35 138.32 62.45 22.14 16.59 8.61 3.30 2.75 020406080100120140160 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CRO 39.6%34.0%54.4%53.2%13.6%27.2%59.9%23.5%36.8%49.3%23.6%6.0%2020 2021 2022 CRO 2022 23.5%36.8%49.3%17.0%42.1%Wind 17 CRO CRO CRO 2022 2019 2020 2022 CRO Wind 39.1%37.7%39.1%40.3%42.7%43.5%45.1%53.3%51.5%49.0%48.3%35.6%45.5%48.8%47.0%37.1%33.0%36.2%35.6%47.0%47.7%45.0%43.9%41.1%38.1%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 18 CRO%2022 21 2022 35.2%2023 2023 Wind/2019 2020 2021 2022 22/21 yoy 59 63 66 89+35.2%51 47 50 53+5.6%52 73 71 81+14.8%37 41 48 50+5.1%100 83 90 104+15.6%67 53 66 65-1.7%50 47 56 49-12.9%19 55000 m2 2023 42000 m2 105000 m2 2024 140000 m2 2023 70000 m2 2022 20000 m2 2023 9000 m2 2023 2022 GLP 18000 m2 25000 2300 m2 46000 4300 m2 2024 215000(20000 m2)34000(3100 m2)67000(6200 m2)122 81000 m2 3 2025 20400 m2 2022 CRO CRO 20 CRO CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 21 CRO SMO 2017-2022 CRO 2022 39.33%36.85%34.89%32.96%27.29%11.46%Wind 2017-2022 CRO CRO 2021-2022 yoy 34.99%6.40%45.82%4.93%16.50%38.50%2017-2022 CAGR 27.29%28.11%35.52%15.34%31.76%19.74%22 010203040506070802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 43.85%43.15%46.31%47.24%43.38%39.33%15.34%25.33%24.97%18.78%10.31%36.16%37.72%43.50%39.25%38.32%36.85%34.28%32.53%32.88%29.12%26.08%27.29%14.48%34.21%37.11%32.86%33.58%32.96%5%15%25%35%45%55%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 23 CDMO 2018-2022 Wind 2022 2018-2022 020406080100120 2018 2019 2020 2021 202201020304050607080 2018 2019 2020 2021 202224 /2022 CDMO 3.32 2.83 2.78 2.38 1.81 1.22./来 源：各公司 年报，各公司 官网，海 通证券 研究所 注：药明康德 未披露 反应釜 总体积，但其小 分子CDMO 收入远 大于同 行，我们 推测其 产能水平 也是行 业 领先水平 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 25 Wind CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 26 CDMO 2022 153+48%2022 1.20+50%2022 CDMO 0.91+7%CDMO 2022 CGT 1.95+29%2022 1.01 Wind CDMO CDMO 27 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0501001502002019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%03060901201502019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0204060801002019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%22 44%CDMO 41%24.8%CDMO Wind 41.64%45.13%46.93%44.04%31.10%23.18%30.53%24.80%39.73%26.76%39.05%40.99%10%20%30%40%50%2019 2020 2021 2022-CDMO-CDMO 28 CDMO CDMO 2022 22H1 64%22H2 37%22 120+63%70+56%29 2888 4474 4986 6999 1519 1410 2220 1063 01000200030004000500060007000800090002021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 4407 5884 34%-7%+55%22%+57%+11%7206 8063 12%-52%+40%2189 3896 3040 4600 1161 1792 1350 1927 990 1297 1286 1249 4407 7206 5884 8063 02000400060008000100002021H1 2022H1 2021H2 2022H2+64%+37%CDMO 22 22 CDMO 588(+108)106(+43)48 30 CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 31 CGT CDMO 22 2022 CGT CDMO 1.25+54%0.43 34.24%2022 CGT CDMO 0.75+443%2022 CGT CDMO 0.22 2022 CGT CDMO 13.08(+27%)-0.80-6.12%2022 CGT CDMO 1.95+29%-0.54-27.70%Wind 23 25 40 1 102 1056 81 14 193 1026 151 125 75 217 1308 195 0200400600800100012001400 2019 2020 2021 2022 CGT CDMO 21-22 26%25%31%-3%56%47%38%-1%-6%-14%-28%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 CGT CDMO+GCT 32 CGT CDMO 2022 2022 2022 2022 1603 18%2022 159 25%52 2022 I 50 II 10 III 8 CMC 55 IND 14 IND 2 27 52 CGT CDMO 2022 CGT CDMO 2022 III 8 II 10 I 50 CGT CDMO 2022 33 CXO CRO CRO SMO CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO 22 34 1 CDMO 2 CRO biotech Wind 35 22 22 yoy 22 23Q1 23Q1 yoy 23Q1 2.94 38%63.82%0.68-7%65.4%7.98 34%44.23%/0.29 16%/8.34 38%44.11%2.52 42%43.51%2.46 78%/3.53 40%60.16%/5.17 31%71.29%1.4 21%69.21%3.03 10%41.47%0.87 19%39.78%4.06 2.64 53.8%/CRO 26.08 21%21.83%6.55 13%19.88%3.78 31%58.65%0.87-5%61.61%35 22 22H1 22H2 78.3%78.5%22H1 22H2 50.2%30.8%22H1 22H2 68.28%61.89%22H1 22H2 63.81%60.16%Wind 36 2022 2022 42.17%33.28%38.87%36.58%47.86%43.96%43.22%43.23%20.10%53.06%65.44%55.32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 78.3%78.5%78.4%50.2%30.8%39.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%22H1 22H2 22-68.28%61.89%63.81%60.16%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%21 22-2022 36 2019-2022 22 59%2019 62%2022 74%2020-2022 2022 134%2022 2020-2022 2019-2022 37 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0204060801001202020 2021 2022%22 22Q1-22Q4 51.16%32.07%34.21%14.22%22Q1-22Q4 33.88%-15.11%25.78%2.32%22Q1-22Q4 76.70%74.12%69.49%65.79%22Q1-22Q4 49.89%30.74%41.89%42.03%22 Wind 38 2022 51.16%32.07%34.21%14.22%33.88%-15.11%25.78%2.32%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 76.70%74.12%69.49%65.79%49.89%30.74%41.89%42.03%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 2022 38 22Q1-22Q4 41.87%16.50%32.05%0.22%22Q1-22Q4 46.69%26.40%31.13%24.84%2022 10.1%36.2%26.4%Wind 39 2022 2020-2022%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0123456789102020 2021 2022-yoy-yoy-yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 39 CXO 40 SAC S0850513110005(0755)82780398 Email SAC S0850523040001(021)23219671 Email:41 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%42
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