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2009 1210 2023 05 09 000963 58 41 2023 2023 3 Arcalyst ADC ELAHERE 2023-2024 EBD 2023-2025 M MaiLi Perfectha 2020 2021-2023 2022 5.1 2023-2025 30.2 36.8 45.6 20.9%21.7%23.9%PE 24 20 16 2023 689 512+121+56 270 54 2023 1014 58 1 2 3 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()37,715 42,300 47,444 53,733(%)9.1%12.2%12.2%13.3%()2,499 3,022 3,679 4,556(%)8.6%20.9%21.7%23.9%()1.42 1.72 2.10 2.60()29 24 20 16()3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2023 5 5 S0360520110002()175,399.53()174,972.70()725.80()724.04(%)37.97()11.01 12/50.58/32.86(12)000963 2022 2022-09-06 000963 2021 2021-08-10 000963 MB-102 2021-03-09-10%12%34%55%22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-092023-05-05 300 000963 2009 1210 2023 Arcalyst ADC ELAHERE 2023-2024 2023-2025 M MaiLi Perfectha 2020 2022 5.1 2023-2025 30.2 36.8 45.6 20.9%21.7%23.9%PE 24 20 16 2023 689 512+121+56 270 54 2023 1014 58 000963 2009 1210 3.6.7.7.9 1 GLP-1.9 2 BD.14 3.17.23.24.25.29.32.33.33.35.35 000963 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7 GLP-1.9 8 2018-2022.10 9 2018-2022.10 10 2022.10 11.11 12 GLP-1.11 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.13 18 GLP-1.13 19.14 20.14 21.15 22.15 23.15 24.15 25.16 26.16 27 Arcalyst III.17 28 Arcalyst.17 29.18 30 EGFR-TKI.18 31 EGFR NSCLC mPFS().18 32 PFS.19 33 TP53 PFS().19 000963 2009 1210 5 34.19 35 ELAHERE.20 36 FR.21 37 FR ADC.21 38 ELAHERE.22 39 Heidelberg Pharma ATAC.22 40 Heidelberg Pharma ATAC.22 41 BCMA PSMA ADC.23 42.23 43.24 44.24 45 2019.24 46.24 47.25 48.25 49.25 50.26 51.26 52.27 53.27 54 MaiLi.28 55.29 56 NMPA 2023/04.29 57.30 58.30 59 Glacial Spa.31 60.31 61.32 62.33 63.33 64.34 65.34 66.35 000963 2009 1210 6 2000 20 2007-2020 14 ROE 20%2020 2023 2023 3 Arcalyst ADC ELAHERE 2023-2024 1 EBD 2023-2025 MaiLi Perfectha 000963 2009 1210 7 2020 2021-2023 2022 5.1 30 30 2001-2019 CAGR 21%2 Wind 2020-2021 2020 2020Q2 2020 114.0 4.9%2021 105.2 7.7%2003 1 2020 33.0%0.5g/33.8%0.2g/2021Q1 2 91%2021Q2 000963 2009 1210 8 3/22 20Q2-28.6 8.0 21Q2-91%8.4 0.7 22Q4-62%0.5 0.5 22 12.0-3%2020 21Q1-33%38.5 26.3 2022 2022 11 22 2022 116.7 10.9%1 2021 3 2022 2020 4 2021 5 2022 2 1 4 2022 8.8 3 1 19.3 0 1 12.0 0 1 10.6 2 0 3 2022 2.66+42%2022 6 13 1 000963 2009 1210 9 2021 10 19 2022 2.21 5 6 2021 2019 2020 2021 FDA ANDA 2022 ANDA 1 GLP-1 30 2010 10 GLP-1 GLP-1 NASH 7 GLP-1 000963 2009 1210 10 GLP-1 2023 3 2017 VTV TTP273 GLP-1 GLP-1 DR10624 I 2024 GLP-1 HDM1002 GLP-1 GLP-1 III 2021 10 Ashvattha HDM7003 D-4517.2 II 1 2022 656 4513 16%GLP-1 228 1569 49%18-22 CAGR 28%2022 GLP-1 35%2021 8pct 8 2018-2022 9 2018-2022 2022 4 GLP-1 2017 12 2022 86+66%10 2022 1 GLP-1 2 000963 2009 1210 11 GLP-1 2022 GLP-1 51.2 103%3%2022 GLP-1 1569 2022 509 GLP-1 10.1%2021 5.2pct 2022 GLP-1 35%8 GLP-1 6 2-5 2016 2019 2022 10 20 GLP-1 11 12 GLP-1 2023 3 NMPA 3 4 III GLP-1 6.3 000963 2009 1210 12 13 Wind 2 2020(2020)2 GLP-1 GLP-1 2014 Saxenda FDA Wegovy 2021 FDA 56 9%68 17%14 15 2022 Saxenda 106.8 16 52%Wegovy 61.9 9 346%000963 2009 1210 13 16 17 GLP-1 2022 8.2 OTC 2022 2 GLP-1 2022 7 GLP-1 18 GLP-1 4.3+10.7 000963 2009 1210 14 19 Wind 2 2020(2020)2 BD BD 2020 HDM3001 QX001S 2021 Provention Bio PRV-3279 2022 Kiniksa Arcalyst/IL-1/Mavrilimumab GM-CSF 24 20 Arcalyst 2023 BLA HDM3001 HDM3001 QX001S 000963 2009 1210 15 III 2023Q3 BLA 2024 Globenewswire 2022 185 8%TNF-IL-12/23 IL-17 IL-23 2022 13 35%21 22 Globenewswire IL-12 IL-23 IL-12 IL-23 p40 2009 FDA 2022 97.2 6%2010-22 CAGR 31%2017 14 2021 75%2022 3.38 924%23 24 000963 2009 1210 16/HDM3001 25 Stelara 2017 11 2021 2020 3 HDM3001/III 2021 5 23Q3 BLA BAT-2206/III 2021 6 III 2023 1 GLR-1027-8.4 26 Wind(2022 Arcalyst IL-1 Rilonacept Arcalyst 2022 Kiniksa Rilonacept IL-1 IL-1 IL-1&IL-1 cytokine trap Rilonacept Regeneron 2008 FDA cryo-pyrin-associated periodic syndromes CAPS 2020 FDA IL-1 deficiency of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist DIRA 2017 Kiniksa Regeneron Rilonacept 2019 Rilonacept FDA 2020 2021 3 Rilonacept FDA FDA 12 Rilonacept III NCT03737110 000963 2009 1210 17 n=86 Rilonacept 5 97%C C-reactive protein CRP 7 n=61 Rilonacept 7%2/30 74%23/31 Rilonacept Kiniksa 2022 Arcalyst 1.23 8.4 218%2023 1.90-2.05 55-67%27 Arcalyst III 28 Arcalyst Klein,A.,et al.Phase 3 Trial of Interleukin-1 Trap Rilonacept in Recurrent Pericarditis Kiniksa 2018 Arcalyst CDE 2022 Arcalyst 2022 7 CDE CAPS Pre-BLA 2023 1 DIRA 3+ADC/CAR-T 000963 2009 1210 18 29 1 EGFR-TKI EGFR NSCLC 8 EGFR-TKI 2022 EGFR-TKI 98.5+6%EGFR-TKI 2017 EGFR-TKI 2022 EGFR-TKI 75.8 77%22.7 EGFR-TKI III 23Q2 III PFS 2024 Ib/II EGFR NSCLC PFS 15.4 ORR DCR 84.9%97.2%mPFS 5 EGFR-TKI 30 EGFR-TKI 31 EGFR NSCLC mPFS()Matteo Canale et al.The Role of TP53 Mutations in EGFR-Mutated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer:Clinical Significance and Implications for Therapy 29%ORR 87.1%PFS 12.8 OS 25.2 47.8%EGFR 000963 2009 1210 19 TP53 20.3%EGFR TP53 EGFR PFS TP53 EGFR PFS 14.0 vs 15.4 32 PFS 33 TP53 PFS()James C H Yang et al.Osimertinib in Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer and Leptomeningeal Metastases:The BLOOM Study H Hou et al.Concurrent TP53 mutations predict poor outcomes of EGFR-TKI treatments in Chinese patients with advanced NSCLC EGFR-TKI TP53 EGFR 5.4 34 Matteo Canale et al.The Role of TP53 Mutations in EGFR-Mutated Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer:Clinical Significance and Implications for Therapy 2 ADC ADC ImmunoGen Heidelberg ADC ADC ADC ADC ADC 2022 BD 10 ADC 000963 2009 1210 20 ELAHERE 2020 10 ImmunoGen 4000 2.65 ImmunoGen ADC Mirvetuximab Soravtansine ELAHERE IMGN853 HDM2002 ELAHERE FDA ADC FR DM4 Folate receptor FR 1-3 ELAHERE FR/35 ELAHERE ORR mPFS FR SORAYA 2022 11 FDA 32.4%4.3 FR MIRASOL III 23Q2-FR PICCOLO II 23 ORR 64%-FR GLORIOSA ELAHERE+III 52%10.1 FR 420 STUDY ELAHERE+II 89%16.5 ImmunoGen 80%2 FR 76-89%3 ImmunoGen FORWARD FR ORR 10.0%mPFS 3.3 2022 11 14 ELAHERE FR FDA FR ADC SORAYA 106 FR 1-3 SORAYA ORR DOR ORR 31.7%ORR 10.0%mDOR 6.9 mPFS 4.3 mPFS 3.3 ELAHERE 2 Matulonis,U.et al.Efficacy and Safety of Mirvetuximab Soravtansine in Patients With Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer With High Folate Receptor Alpha Expression:Results From the SORAYA Study 3 Scaranti,M.et al.Exploiting the folate receptor in oncology 000963 2009 1210 21 36 F R ORR mDOR mPFS mOS FR ELAHERE 31.7%6.9 4.3 13.8 SORAYA 10.0%-3.3 12.0 FORWARD ELAHERE+52.0%9.4 10.1-FORWARD Matulonis,U.et al.Efficacy and Safety of Mirvetuximab Soravtansine in Patients With Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer With High Folate Receptor Alpha Expression:Results From the SORAYA Study ImmunoGen ELAHERE III MIRASOL MIRASOL ELAHERE 23Q2 ELAHERE FORWARD ELAHERE FR ELAHERE FR ORR 52.0%mPFS 10.1 5 FR ADC ELAHERE ImmunoGen ELAHERE 2022 12 240 37 F R ADC ELAHERE ImmunoGen/FR DM4 FR III-FR ELAHERE+III-II-FR ELAHERE+II-MORAb-202 BMS/farletuzumab FR II-STRO-002 Sutro/FR SC239/I-STRO-002+I-PRO-1184-I/II I BAT-8006 FR I-I 2020 ELAHERE III 2022 8 2023H2 NMPA BLA 2024 PRO-1184 BAT-8006 I ELAHERE ELAHERE FR 13.7 ELAHERE 000963 2009 1210 22 38 ELAHERE ImmunoGen ATAC 2022 Heidelberg 1.05 Heidelberg Pharma 35%Heidelberg Pharma 2000 4.5 Heidelberg Pharma HDP-101 HDP-103 20 Heidelberg Pharma HDP-102 HDP-104 Heidelberg Pharma ATAC Antibody Targeted Amanitin Conjugates-Amanitin ATAC 1 Amanitin RNA II 2 Amanitin ATAC 3 17p Del 17p 39 Heidelberg Pharma ATAC 40 Heidelberg Pharma ATAC Heidelberg Pharma Heidelberg Pharma HDP-101 HDP-103 BCMA PSMA ATAC HDP-101/I/IIa 2022 2 HDP-103 mCRPC Heidelberg HDP-101 HDP-103 ADC ADC ATAC ADC 000963 2009 1210 23 41 BCMA PSMA ADC BCMA Belantamab mafodotin GSK 2020 2022 III HDP-101 Heidelberg/I/IIa-MEDI2228 Medimmune Llc I-Ispectamab debotansine BMS I-AMG-224 I-JS-115-SG-1116-PSMA ARX-517 Ambrx Inc I-HDP-103 Heidelberg/-CB-108 Crescendo Biologics-3 2022 1 27 2022 5 2023 1/CAR-T CT-053 CT-053 2022 10 NMPA 2023 42 2022 1 2022 1 27 CAR-T/2023 1 2023 2022 2023 2023 GLP-1 HDM1002 GLP-1 HDM1005 best in class DR10624 I Provention Bio PRV-3279 Kiniksa Arcalyst Mavrilimumab ADC Heidelberg ATAC HDM2005 3 10 ADC 000963 2009 1210 24 43 44+10+Sinclair 80 Frost&Sullivan 2019 17 29 47 53 91 Frost&Sullivan 2030 6500 45 2019 46 Frost&Sullivan 2030 1.28 0.2 21-30 CAGR 18%11%2022 0102030405060708090100韩国 美国 巴西 日本 中国01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E非手术 手术 000963 2009 1210 25 2022 84%47 48 2022 2013 49 2018 11 Sinclair 100%Silhouette Ellans 80 2020 10 Kylane Sinclair Kylane 20%MaiLi 2020Q1 MaiLi 2021 9 KiOmed 1 skin booster 3 1 Ellans-S PLLA Poly-L-Lactic-Acid PCL Polycaprolactone Frost&Sullivan 2030 40 2025-2030 20.4%0204060801001201401602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E手术类 非手术类0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022非手术 手术 000963 2009 1210 26 50*2021 Ellans-S 30%PCL 70%CMC+CMC PCL+Ellans/0.02%-0.03%51 2021 4 2021 6 2021 4 30%PCL+70%CMC PLLA-(PLLA)+500+2022 600 2022 N.A 1100+2022 700+2022 200 2021 335 2022 18800/1ml 11000-12800/0.75ml 18800/1ml APP NMPA Ellans-S 2009 CE FDA 10 2021 8 2022 6.26 0510152025303540452021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E市场规模（亿元）000963 2009 1210 27 2 Frost&Sullivan 2023 100 2030 443 23-30 CAGR 24%52*53 Allergan 10-20min 5-7 1-2 5000-7000/0.8mL Allergan 10-20min 5-7 1 2800-3800/0.8mL Q-Med AB 10-20min 5-7 8-12 1800-2500/1mL 10-20min 5-7 12-18 700-1000/1mL 10-20min 5-7 9 400-700/1mL C LG 5-10min 5-7 6-9 400-1000/1mL 10-20min 5-7 9 400-700/1mL 10-30min 3-5 6 400-1500/1mL 10-20min 5-7 6 200-500/1mL APP MaiLi MaiLi 2020 6 CE 2021H1 MaiLi 1 2 OxiFree MaiLi MaiLi 2023 1 4 0501001502002503003504004505002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E市场规模（亿元）000963 2009 1210 28 MaiLi Extreme 54 MaiLi MaiLi Perfectha Sinclair Perfectha 1 BDDE 1,4-12 2 3 Perfectha 2021 5 CE 2022 Perfectha 3 PDO PPDO Frost&Sullivan 2030 13.07 2025-2030 47.5%000963 2009 1210 29 55*Silhouette 3D PLLA+PLGA 2022 Silhouette Instalift 56 NMPA 2023/04 PPDO PPDO 1-2 1 QUILL 1-2 5-7 TIGHTLY PPDO 6-8 3-5 KJ PPDO 1-2 1/meshfill PPDO 12 5-7/LINE PPDO 12 5-7/PM sling 5 1 PPDO 1-1.5 1-3 APP 4 2021 9 Sinclair KiOmed 4 KiOmedine 1 3 CE 3 2024 CE 000963 2009 1210 30 2022 2022 53%1-1.5 2021 2025 508 57 2019 4 R2 Dermatology R2 34 2021 2 High Tech 100%2022 2 Viora 100%Viora 60/1 8 58 Q Max Fotona 20-30min 5-7 3-5 MCL31 Asclepion 5-10min 5-7 3-5 Sinon Q Alma 10-30min 1 1-2 5-10min 0-1 1-2 XTRAC 5-10min 0-1 1-2 C6 Cynosure 30min 1 1-2 Q HLS 20-30min 5-7 9 Alma 30min 1 6 Q Nd:YAG 5-10min 5-7 3-6 Revlite SI Cynosure 20-30min 0-1 3-6 Q Nd:YAG 5-10min 1-3 1-3 Vbeam Perfecta Candela Corporation 10-20min 5-7 1-3 App 000963 2009 1210 31 Glacial Rx F1 R2 2022 Glacial Rx F1 2022 Glacial Spa F0 2022 3 Glacial Spa 2022 40 2023 59 Glacial Spa glacial spa 2 2020 2020 18 16.4%60 Liposonix Solta Medical 1-1.5h 5-7 10 UltraShape-Syneron-Candela 30min-1h 1-3 10 ZELTIQ Aesthetics Inc 1-1.5h 5-7 10 30min-1h 1-3 3-5 UNIFORM Alma 30min-1h 1 2-3 Reaction Viora 30min-1h 0-1 6-2 Vanquish ME BTL Aesthetics 30min-1h 1-3 9 VelaShape-Syneron-Candela 20-30min 1-3 6 Fotona 30min-1h 1-3 3-6 NA 000963 2009 1210 32 Venus Freeze VenusConcept 20-30min 1-3 3-6 NA REFIT 30min 0-1 3-6 Emsculpt BTL Aesthetics 30min 2-5 1-3 App 1 High Tech Medical insight 2019 EMEA High Tech 2 Viora Reaction Reaction CORE 0.8MHz 1.7MHz 2.45MHz 23Q2 40 2020 2021 1 2 2022 1 2 2023 61 2020 01 ADC CDMO-2021 11 2023H2 2021 12 2023 2022 05-2022 08 2023 04 000963 2009 1210 33&ADC&2022 5.1+22%CMO CDMO 2022 2023 62 1+DCF 2023 122.8 14%20%2023 24.6 2023 21 PE 512 63 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 600079.SH 443.77 20 17 14 002262.SZ 288.17 26 21 17 000963 2009 1210 34 002020.SZ 131.48 16 14 12 PE 21 17 14 Wind 1 Wind 2 2023/05/05+2023 3 Arcalyst 2023 DIRA 2024 ADC ELAHERE DCF 121 2023 57%8 20%2023 1.6 2023 35 PE 56 64 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 688639.SH 166.07 37 26 19 688166.SH 96.83 33 27 22 605116.SH 102.44 35 27 21 PE 35 27 21 Wind 1 Wind 2 2023/05/05 2 2023 56%30 15%4.5 2023 60 PE 270 65 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 300896.SZ 1129.83 59 42 31 Wind 1 Wind 2 2023/05/05 3 2023 270+5%4.2 2023 13 PE 000963 2009 1210 35 54 66 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 600998.SH 304.69 12 10 8 600511.SH 315.38 14 13 12 601607.SH 851.39 13 12 11 PE 13 11 10 Wind 1 Wind 2 2023/05/05 2023 689 512 121 56 270 54 2023 1014 2023-2025 30.2 36.8 45.6 20.9%21.7%23.9%PE 24 20 16 2023 689 512+121+56 270 54 2023 1014 58 1 2 3 000963 2009 1210 36 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,996 8,276 11,612 15,723 37,715 42,300 47,444 53,733 8 2 3 5 25,682 27,992 30,270 32,904 7,199 7,731 8,800 10,010 208 225 255 287 500 400 427 488 6,335 7,191 8,421 9,941 4,495 4,822 5,249 5,648 1,249 1,497 1,779 2,096 0 0 0 0 1,016 1,489 1,945 2,654 1,369 1,205 1,397 1,567 78 67 68 66 17,568 22,436 27,488 33,441-69-69-69-69 14 14 14 14-4-4-4-4 1,659 300 300 300 28 28 10 0 3,982 4,221 4,533 4,909-142-142-142-142 873 873 873 873 93 50 0 0 2,280 2,415 2,603 2,840 3,061 3,711 4,511 5,580 4,817 4,822 4,826 4,829 8 8 8 8 13,624 12,645 13,149 13,766 38 38 38 38 31,192 35,081 40,637 47,208 3,031 3,680 4,480 5,549 948 1,148 1,348 1,548 498 618 753 932 1,029 827 925 1,055 2,533 3,062 3,728 4,617 4,873 4,778 5,267 5,717 33 40 49 61 1 1 1 2 2,499 3,022 3,679 4,556 146 164 184 209 NOPLAT 2,598 3,118 3,784 4,672 2,275 2,275 2,275 2,275 EPS()1.42 1.72 2.10 2.60 148 148 148 148 732 888 1,063 1,284 10,153 10,229 11,212 12,238 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,051 2,344 3,838 5,538 0 0 0 0 9.1%12.2%12.2%13.3%811 811 811 812 EBIT 9.1%20.5%21.4%23.5%1,863 3,155 4,650 6,350 8.6%20.9%21.7%23.9%12,016 13,384 15,861 18,587 18,578 21,091 24,155 27,962 31.9%33.8%36.2%38.8%599 606 621 658 6.7%7.2%7.9%8.6%19,176 21,697 24,775 28,620 ROE 13.5%14.3%15.2%16.3%31,192 35,081 40,637 47,208 ROIC 20.0%18.0%17.7%17.9%38.5%38.2%39.0%39.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 15.4%20.5%24.8%28.1%2,382 3,221 3,729 4,597 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 3,240 3,821 4,529 5,473 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3-521-326-427-399-998-422-1,093-1,269 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1,725-298 588 580 65 64 63 63-1,065 447 131 213 61 62 60 60-2,436 292-1,240-1,411 59 60 60 60-871-1,066-1,234-1,403()-674 1,359 0 0 1.42 1.72 2.10 2.60-890-1-7-8 1.36 1.84 2.13 2.62-100 766 847 925 10.59 12.02 13.77 15.94 526 1,492 1,695 1,900-579-719-851-1,029 P/E 29 24 20 16 175 175 175 175 P/B 4 3 3 3-221-181-171-121 EV/EBITDA 20 17 14 12 000963 2009 1210 37 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2023 2021 2022 2022 2022 000963 2009 1210 38 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 000963 2009 1210 39(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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