2018-2019年医药板块总结分析报告.pptx

2018-2019年医药板块总结分析报告,2018年9月3日,报告目录,医药行业2018年中报分析各子板块2018年中报分析风险提示,21.2%,25.0%,2018中报：医药行业与其他行业经营情况比较根据上市公司2018年中报，18年中期实现28个行业的全行业营收增长，共有21个行业营收增速超过10%，其中医药生物行业营收增长为21.2%，在28个一级行业中排在第7位。2018年上半年医药行业扣非归母净利润增速为23.5%，相较营收增速更快，在28个一级行业中排在第12位。各一级行业2018年上半年营收增长情况35.0%30.0%,23.5%,20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%*本页剔除了：医药行业里会影响计算结果的次新股；以及其他行业会影响计算结果的次新股,40.0%,20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%各一级行业2018年上半年扣非归母净利润增长情况160.0%140.0%120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%,(-，-100%,(-100%,-90%,(-90%,-80%,(-80%，-70%,(-70%,-60%,(-60%,-50%,(-50%，-40%,(-40%,-30%,(-30%,-20%,(-20%，-10%,(-10%,-0%,(0%,10%,(10%，20%,(20%,30%,(30%，40%,(40%,50%,(50%，60%,(60%,70%,(70%，80%,(80%,90%,(90%，100%,(100%，+,(-，-100%,(-100%,-90%,(-90%,-80%,(-80%，-70%,(-70%,-60%,(-60%,-50%,(-50%，-40%,(-40%,-30%,(-30%,-20%,(-20%，-10%,(-10%,-0%,(0%,10%,(10%，20%,(20%,30%,(30%，40%,(40%,50%,(50%，60%,(60%,70%,(70%，80%,(80%,90%,(90%，100%,(100%，+,公司数目,增速区间,增速区间,医药上市公司2018年上半年营收增速分布,医药上市公司2018年上半年扣非归母净利润增速分布公司数目,2018中报：医药板块上市公司营收和扣非归母净利润增速分布从医药上市公司2018年上半年增速分布来看，有109家医药上市公司营收增速集中在0-30%，这个增速区间比重达到49%，集中度颇高；有102家医药上市公司扣非归母净利润增速集中在0%-40%，占比46%。还有19家公司扣非归母净利润增速超过100%，原因主要有并购引起报表合并、上年同期本身基数较小以及投资收益等情况导致。,0 0 0,2,0 0 1,3 3,7,17,37,40,32,30,17,9,3 3 2 3,15,20151050,40353025,45,11,2 1,0,3 3,9,5,7,15 14,20,26,32,24,12,10,3 4 2 2,19,151050,302520,35,2018中报：医药行业2018年中期主要财务指标以整体指标来看，2018年上半年医药行业营收增速为21.2%，与2017年同期增速相比略微上扬，扣非归母净利润增速同比为23.5%，相较2017年同期增速同样有所上升。行业毛利率35%，同比提升约3%，继续保持上升趋势。2018年第二季度，医药行业营收增速为18.2%，扣非归母净利润增速同比为16.5%，两者相较2017年同期增速有所回调。行业毛利率35%，同比提升约3%。截止到2018年一季度医药板块经营指标统计（百万元）,备注：为保证对比口径一致，剔除了报告期极端值股票和部分次新股。,行业总体,15A,1Q16,2Q16,1H16,3Q16,1-3Q16,4Q16,16A,1Q17,2Q17,1H17,3Q17,1-3Q17,4Q17,17A,1Q18,2Q18,1H18,收入,801744 215467 227527 442994 230664 673657 270259 943917 251739 275178 526917 278699 805616 311707 1117323 313415 325252 638667,收入增速归母净利润归母净利润增速扣非归母净利润扣非归母净利润增速毛利率扣非净利率经营现金流/归母净利润,14.5%6666122.1%5627115.4%31%7.0%0.84,16.8%1866825.0%1590820.1%31%7.4%-0.06,16.7%2055515.6%1884927.2%32%8.3%1.11,16.8%3922319.9%3475723.8%31%7.8%0.55,17.7%1957434.6%1737736.3%32%7.5%0.74,17.1%5879724.4%5213427.7%31%7.7%0.61,19.4%19275-0.7%15384-0.4%32%5.7%1.83,17.7%7807317.1%6751820.0%32%7.2%0.91,16.8%2068610.8%1934221.6%31%7.7%-0.24,20.9%2500521.6%2168815.1%32%7.9%0.70,18.9%4569016.5%4103018.0%32%7.8%0.27,20.8%2770241.5%1953512.4%33%7.0%0.44,19.6%7339224.8%6056516.2%32%7.5%0.34,15.3%2177112.9%162645.7%36%5.2%1.86,18.4%9516321.9%7682913.8%33%6.9%0.69,24.5%2656428.4%2538131.2%35%8.1%-0.19,18.2%2865714.6%2527416.5%35%7.8%0.93,21.2%5522120.9%5065523.5%35%7.9%0.39,加应收票据后的经,营现金流/归母净利,润,1.46,2.10,3.02,1.55,2.50,1.20,2.47,1.52,2.07,2.51,1.26,2.00,0.93,4.42,1.27,1.85,2.61,1.27,营业成本,550201 149670 154622 304292 157818 462111 182877 644987 172670 187276 359946 187201 547147 199969 747116 204209 212507 416716,经营现金流/归母净利润应收票据,5624841079,-107740322,2275539239,2167839239,1445034582,3612934582,3527312425,7140147007,-488047680,1742745215,1254845215,1225943169,2480743169,4051655781,6532355781,-493354184,2650948307,2157648307,报告目录,医药行业2018年中报分析各子板块2018年中报分析风险提示,2018年中报分析化学制剂（1）2018H1增长情况与2017H1对比,行业基本财务指标（剔除次新股成分调整后，百万元）, 同比去年同期，营业收入增速、归母净利润增速和扣非归母净利润增速加快明显。, 营收增速2018H1为26.7%，同比提高10.8pct；归母净利润增速为23.3%，同比提高13.9pct；扣非后归母净利润增速2018H1为20.2%，同比提高8.6pct。 行业整体毛利率提高3pct为59%，归母净利润率和扣非归母净利润率略有下滑，分别下降0.3pct和0.6pct，总,体盈利能力略有下降；化学制剂受到一致性评价、两票制政策影响明显。,26.7%15.9%,23.3%9.4%,20.2%11.6%,5%0%,25%20%15%10%,30%,营收增速,净利润增速,扣非净利润增速,2017H1,2018H1,化学制剂收入收入增速归母净利润归母净利润增速扣非归母净利润扣非归母净利润增速毛利率扣非净利率经营现金流/归母净利润加应收票据后的经营现,金流/归母净利润,15A10934813.5%1322724.8%1212628.4%53%11.1%1.191.88,1Q16282719.4%365618.0%323917.8%54%11.5%1.023.39,2Q163069314.8%436324.9%402827.1%55%13.1%1.303.12,1H165896412.1%801821.7%726722.8%54%12.3%1.172.17,3Q162989311.8%400736.3%367750.5%56%12.3%1.373.21,1-3Q168885812.0%1202626.2%1094430.9%55%12.3%1.241.85,4Q164000433.2%39376.5%3192-15.2%52%8.0%2.002.58,16A12886117.8%1596320.7%1413616.6%54%11.0%1.432.03,1Q173329817.8%423115.7%398323.0%55%12.0%0.623.03,2Q173506514.2%45454.2%41242.4%56%11.8%1.243.32,1H176836315.9%87769.4%810711.6%56%11.9%0.952.02,3Q173759925.8%10427160.2%3592-2.3%57%9.6%0.511.44,1-3Q1710596219.2%1920359.7%116986.9%56%11.0%0.711.21,4Q17411512.9%40262.3%2802-12.2%59%6.8%1.604.54,17A14711314.2%2322945.5%145002.6%57%9.9%0.861.37,1Q184357630.9%531725.7%483021.3%59%11.1%0.882.84,2Q184301522.7%550321.1%491719.2%59%11.4%0.662.56,1H188659126.7%1082123.3%974620.2%59%11.3%0.771.73,营业成本经营现金流/归母净利润应收票据,51680156819122,1312137338674,1395156847944,2707394187944,1321454937382,40287149117382,1911678752281,59403227869662,14886263810167,1543356589421,3031982969421,1633252749721,46652135709721,17077645811816,637282002711816,17819465410440,17687365410412,35506830710412,收入增速,归母净利润（亿元）及增速,EPS,投资要点,2018Q1,2018H1,2018Q1,2018H1,2018Q1,2018H1,2018E,2019E,2020E,丽珠集团恩华药业信立泰,11.4%10.5%15.9%,6.8%11.2%11.4%,3.51.04.2,6.762.587.88,26.3%19.3%10.3%,25.7%25.2%8.1%,1.550.491.56,1.860.601.83,2.180.732.15,管线推进，二线专科药放量新产品放量氯吡格雷通过一致性评价，阿利沙坦放量,科伦药业,61.5%,57.7%,3.8,8.13,98.9% 202.2%,0.83,1.08,1.39,制剂管线推进、仿制药放量,康弘药业翰宇药业,9.0%30.4%,1.0%35.1%,2.11.0,3.102.10,35.9%25.2%,33.1%30.9%,0.350.50*,0.450.74*,0.620.96*,康柏西普放量、其余制剂业务稳定原料药业务放量,贝达药业普利制药,24.0%94.8%,16.7%92.7%,0.40.3,0.630.70,-43.4% -51.4%200.4% 125.2%,0.550.90,0.641.60,0.852.72,新产品获批制剂业务进展,人福医药恒瑞医药现代制药,33.3%21.7%31.4%,28.8%22.3%27.8%,1.89.51.7,6.8719.445.75,-10.2%16.9%8.6%,33.5%21.4%14.9%,0.551.110.64*,0.691.440.80*,0.861.810.95*,海外业务进展，麻药业务提速新产品获批和放量国企改革,2018年中报分析化学制剂（2）多数龙头公司保持20%30%的业绩增速，随着药审改革取得成效，产品管线成为市场关注的投资要点。申万分类下板块内公司收入及扣非归母净利润增速情况,2018年上半年，化学制剂子行业中，49家企业实现营收同比增长，2家同比下降。在扣非归母净利润,同比增长的企业中，有4家企业增幅在100%以上，有13家企业增长幅度在30%-100%之间。,申万分类下板块内公司收入及扣非归母净利润增速情况,2018年中报分析化学制剂（3）,行业基本财务指标（剔除次新股成分调整后，百万元）, 营收增速、归母净利润增速2018H1均提高 营收增速2018H1为21.7%,同比提高7.6pct，高增长部分预计来自产品价格较去年同期上涨。, 扣非后归母净利润增速2018H1为83.4%，同比增长82.8pct。 化学原料药整体明显受到价格因素影响，行业整体毛利率、归母净利润率较去年同期明显提高。,2.0%,0.6%,14.1%21.7%,74.2%,83.4%,0%,50%40%30%20%10%,80%70%60%,90%,营收增速,净利润增速,扣非净利润增速,2017H1,2018H1,化学原料药收入收入增速归母净利润归母净利润增速扣非归母净利润,15A639432.9%478021.1%3602,1Q161726710.0%152656.0%1310,2Q161827213.2%218858.5%2039,1H163553911.6%371457.4%3349,3Q161822620.7%192798.6%1678,1-3Q165376614.5%564169.4%5028,4Q161986016.8%1390-4.2%1318,16A7362515.1%703147.1%6345,1Q171974714.4%16457.8%1467,2Q172081013.9%2143-2.1%1903,1H174055714.1%37882.0%3370,3Q172037611.8%1883-2.3%1682,1-3Q176093313.3%56710.5%5052,4Q172374919.6%258485.9%2065,17A8468215.0%825517.4%7117,1Q182581230.7%4003143.3%3821,2Q182352713.1%259521.1%2359,1H184934021.7%659874.2%6181,扣非归母净利润增速,1.2%,64.0%,88.3%,78.0% 109.9%,87.5%,43.1%,76.2%,12.0%,-6.7%,0.6%,0.2%,0.5%,56.7%,12.2%,160.4%,24.0%,83.4%,毛利率扣非净利率经营现金流/归母净利润加应收票据后的经营现,金流/归母净利润,30%5.6%1.561.94,31%7.6%0.211.48,35%11.2%0.871.85,33%9.4%0.601.18,34%9.2%1.332.29,33%9.4%0.851.18,36%6.6%2.292.52,34%8.6%1.131.44,33%7.4%0.602.02,36%9.1%0.821.96,34%8.3%0.721.37,38%8.3%1.332.66,36%8.3%0.931.37,46%8.7%1.182.31,38%8.4%1.011.36,47%14.8%0.501.21,41%10.0%1.262.30,44%12.5%0.801.20,营业成本经营现金流/归母净利润应收票据,4467774461811,118703251932,1196619052134,2383622302134,1207225711850,3590948011850,127423178318,4865179802168,132639822341,1330717592451,2657027412451,1264925122490,3921952532490,1288130452926,5210082982926,1372919852859,1380632702691,2753552552691,2018年中报分析化学原料药（1）2018H1增长情况与2017H1对比,收入增速,归母净利润（亿元）及增速,EPS,投资要点,2018Q1,2018H1,2018Q1,2018H1,2018Q1,2018H1,2018E,2019E,2020E,新华制药新和成亿帆医药金达威金城医药浙江医药华海药业九洲药业,9.4%148.0%44.6%79.6%44.5%61.7%9.7%20.5%,11.8%78.3%25.2%47.0%24.7%36.5%8.0%15.2%,0.714.93.33.40.74.71.60.5,1.3420.685.194.881.584.612.360.88,31.1%544.6%63.1%410.0%32.9%1838.1%15.6%22.3%,15.5%251.3%12.2%228.6%21.6%419.9%-22.4%20.9%,0.643.38*1.05*1.32*0.941.240.76*0.25*,0.803.07*1.18*1.46*1.151.100.97*0.35*,1.02*4.46*1.30*1.47*1.361.171.23*0.46*,原料药提价，一致性评价VA提价和蛋氨酸业务VB5提价，医保品种和创新药业务VA提价和保健品业务头孢制剂业务和朗依业务奈诺沙星和原料药业务制剂出口业务和一致性评价业务CMO业务高增长,2018年中报分析化学原料药（2）原料药领域，解热镇痛原料药，VA和VB5价格较Q1有所下调，相应上市公司新和成、金达威和亿帆医药业绩增速放缓；制剂转型企业华海药业因缬沙坦原料药事件业绩下滑，金城医药业绩保持稳定增长；CMO领域九洲药业稳定增长。具体原料药品种请参照月报相关内容。,2018年上半年，化学原料药子行业中，32家企业实现营收同比增长，2家同比下降。在扣非归母净利润同比增长的企业中，有11家企业增幅在100%以上，有9家企业增长幅度在30%-100%之间。,申万分类下板块内公司收入及扣非归母净利润增速情况,2018年中报分析化学原料药（3）,2018年中报分析中药（1）2018H1增长情况与2017H1对比,行业基本财务指标（剔除次新股成分调整后，百万元）,中药收入收入增速归母净利润归母净利润增速扣非归母净利润扣非归母净利润增速毛利率扣非净利率经营现金流/归母净利润加应收票据后的经营现金,流/归母净利润,15A20265616.9%2637526.0%2190010.3%46%10.8%0.651.43,1Q165224817.3%741832.4%603514.2%45%11.6%0.462.91,2Q165613117.4%70137.0%645120.1%47%11.5%0.893.26,1H1610837917.4%1443118.7%1248617.1%46%11.5%0.671.82,3Q165417118.9%682230.4%603627.4%47%11.1%0.752.93,1-3Q1616254917.9%2125322.2%1852120.3%46%11.4%0.701.40,4Q1663403-2.1%6570-26.9%5350-17.8%47%8.4%1.462.51,16A22595211.5%278235.5%238719.0%46%10.6%0.881.66,1Q175845611.9%7368-0.7%710717.8%46%12.2%0.173.19,2Q176312512.5%827518.0%786021.8%47%12.5%0.673.14,1H1712158012.2%156448.4%1496719.9%47%12.3%0.431.74,3Q176013211.0%72346.0%679312.5%49%11.3%0.543.22,1-3Q1718171311.8%228787.6%2176017.5%48%12.0%0.471.32,4Q177749722.2%791620.5%58038.5%51%7.5%1.284.70,17A25920914.7%3079410.7%2756215.5%49%10.6%0.681.55,1Q187068720.9%928326.0%874423.0%49%12.4%0.353.18,2Q187400217.2%1013722.5%83185.8%48%11.2%0.802.96,1H1814468919.0%1941924.1%1706214.0%48%11.8%0.581.71,营业成本经营现金流/归母净利润应收票据,1088341713920615,28722341918205,29937626216586,58659968016586,28762513214886,874211481214886,3388896246862,1213092443621748,31363122722271,33225557820424,64588680520424,30661389919387,952491070419387,382171017027010,1334662087427010,36278323126320,38346812121923,746241135221923, 同比去年，营业收入增速、归母净利润增速加快明显，但是扣非后归母净利润增速有所下降。 营收增速2018H1为19.0%同比提高6.8pct；归母净利润增速为24.1%，同比提高15.7pct；扣非后归母净利润增速2018H1为14.0%同比下降5.9pct。 行业整体毛利率提高1pct为48%，归母净利润率也明显提升，但是扣非后归母净利润率下降0.5pct，总体盈利,能力略有下降。说明行业的收入增长可能部分来自两票,制的高开影响，并且2018H1非经常性损益较多，导致归母净利润增速的大幅提高。,19.0%12.2%,19.9%14.0%,5%0%,30%25%20%15%10%,营收增速,净利润增速,扣非净利润增速,2017H18.4%,2018H124.1%,收入增速,归母净利润（亿元）及增速,预测EPS,投资要点,2018Q1 2018H1,2018Q1 2018H1 2018Q1 2018H1,2018E,2019E,2020E,西藏药业天士力康缘药业济川药业,-13.40%18.06%16.46%51.45%,3.99%16.68%10.90%35.36%,0.68663.71510.94624.6683,1.29689.25002.01688.4252,26.84%16.77%8.95%60.58%,122.93%22.32%5.38%44.81%,1.471.080.682.02,1.851.330.762.56,2.311.660.883.21,优势产品叠加大股东康哲优秀销售能力现代中药龙头，研发能力优秀，大品种开始发力研发能力强劲、产品储备丰富，长期看好儿科用药受医保控费影响小，公司销售能力强，存在外延并购预期,收入增速,归母净利润（亿元）及增速,预测EPS,投资要点,2018Q1 2018H1,2018Q1 2018H1 2018Q1 2018H1,2018E,2019E,2020E,东阿阿胶云南白药仁和药业华润三九同仁堂羚锐制药中新药业亚宝药业片仔癀,1.17%7.26%26.02%37.59%-0.09%34.22%9.00%37.29%42.06%,1.76%8.47%26.68%29.50%3.82%32.56%4.18%22.36%37.14%,6.09428.06251.06404.22913.16860.74341.73370.60053.2612,8.622516.33062.44378.26506.39371.46683.13491.45156.1753,0.80%11.18%34.05%12.87%7.81%8.24%29.62%47.81%44.07%,-4.35%4.35%51.27%11.50%6.60%9.46%12.97%35.46%42.55%,3.413.230.451.490.820.450.780.351.87,3.783.660.581.670.920.561.000.452.53,4.204.150.731.861.040.711.270.563.30,阿胶龙头，业绩增速较快，估值便宜传统药品稳健增长，日化板块竞争力强OTC领域销售能力强大的企业，经营变革带来业绩提升OTC龙头企业，医保控费对公司影响小，业绩稳健增长传统中药龙头企业，具备品牌、产品的双重优势，长期看好国内贴膏剂龙头企业之一，营销改革推动业绩扩张传统中药底蕴深厚，新管理层上台带来经营变动核心产品去库存结束，营销变革推动传统产品片仔癀稳定增长，价格有望持续提升,健民集团,-14.96% -27.13%,0.2892,0.5749,63.40%,19.38%,0.78,1.03,1.33,儿科用药龙头企业，新管理层有望提升公司活力,中药处方药：康缘药业收到注射剂拖累以外，其它公司经营情况良好，预计未来优秀的处方中药企业业绩依然有望改善。重点公司财务指标,中药OTC：受到医保控费的影响较小，但是以大体量国企为主，整体维持中低的稳定增速，而片仔癀、中新药业等经营改善的，以及羚锐制药、健民集团、仁和药业等机制灵活的民营企业业绩持续表现良好。,2018年中报分析中药（2）中药领域，国家对中医药顶层扶持态度明显，中医药法、中医药发展战略规划纲要等重磅文件发布。重点公司财务指标,2018H1，中药子行业71家企业中，有15家企业增幅在30%以上，有42家企业增长幅度在0%-30之间，有14家企业增长幅度小于0 。在扣非归母净利润同比增长的企业中，有15家企业增幅在30%以上，有31家企业增长幅度在0%-30之间，有25家企业增长幅度小于0。,申万分类下板块内公司收入及扣非归母净利润增速情况,2018年中报分析中药（3）,2018中报分析医疗器械（1）2018中报增长情况与2017年同期对比,行业基本财务指标（剔除次新股成分调整后，百万元）, 2018年中期，医疗器械板块营收和归母净利润增长均较,快，分别实现增速20.9%、15.5%，扣非归母净利润增速8.3%。千山药机2018年上半年扣非归母净利润严重亏损2.2亿元，扣除此项极值影响，2018年医疗器械板块扣非归母净利润增速为18.3%。, 2018年第二季度，营收实现同比增速25.1%，扣非归母,净利润实现同比增速10.8%，均保持增长。 医疗器械整体行业增速保持稳定，收入的增加部分来源于,业务的增长及行业加速整合。行业整体毛利率与净利率较去年有所提升。,医疗器械收入收入增速归母净利润归母净利润增速扣非归母净利润扣非归母净利润增速毛利率扣非净利率经营现金流/归母净利润加应收票据后的经营现金流/归母净利润营业成本经营现金流/归母净利润应收票据,