2022-2023医药外包业绩强劲将迎来反弹窗口研究报告.pptx

2022-2023 研究 报 告 1 2 2021 CXO 2-3 45%+3 CXO CRDMO CDMO 4 CXO CXO 2022 PE 5070 2359.HK 6821.HK 22.4%5.1%7.7%8.1%2015-2024E 2015-2019 2019-2024E 4.6%4.4%3.6%2.6%8.7%9.8%Frost&Sullivian 2015-2024E 2015-2019 2019-2024E 8.1%6.8%5.1%3.5%7.7%3.1%22.4%19.4%Frost&Sullivian Nature Review-Drug Discovery 2010 10.1%2020 2.5%2010 11.9 2020 25.1&2010-2020 13.1 11.9 11.8 13.5 14.0 15.8 14.8 18.1 21.7 24.0 25.1 10.1 7.6 7.3 6.4 7.2 6.1 5.5 5.3 3.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2.5 1.6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020:%MAH 2016+2016 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2017 12 1 2 7 2018 6 1 2 2018 7 1 2020 1 2020 1 2 CRO CDMO CDMO 1 2 3 4/CMC 1-2 2-4 6-7 0.5-2 CDMO CDMO CGT CDMO IND NDA/BLA GMP API DP/+/-T NK 18 15 19 23 3 36 20 32 33 5 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 I II III CRO CRO Frost&Sullivan 10%25%70%25%50%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%I II/III Frost&Sullivan 25%-40%34.4%CRO wind=-/CXO CXO CXO CXO Biotech CXO 10/4-6 IND 3-9 NDA 903 247 898 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 12%H 1273 522 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2013 2014 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021 2022 2021 1273 yoy34%3699.13 yoy32%522 yoy53%1113.58 yoy26%Frost&Sullivan 2020 2048 yoy12%247 yoy17%2021Q1-Q3 2021H1 2021Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2021H1 2021Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2021H1 2021Q3 2021Q1-Q3 64.1%62.5%63.5%235.9%145.0%194.0%60.4%56.8%59.0%CXO 47.0%36.8%43.0%50.8%47.8%49.9%39.5%39.8%39.6%63.0%12.9%40.2%83.6%8.3%43.0%42.7%47.0%44.3%24.3%22.5%23.6%40.8%33.9%38.2%63.9%62.0%63.2%45.7%-0.4%27.6%61.3%-21.0%26.8%62.7%58.6%61.5%13.5%28.9%19.9%19.8%34.4%25.6%53.3%59.0%55.8%29.6%11.2%22.6%42.2%-16.8%20.3%10.5%10.4%10.4%19.0%1.5%12.5%24.6%-8.1%12.5%57.0%55.9%56.6%14.7%6.9%12.0%26.2%-13.7%12.3%44.2%42.9%43.8%13.6%16.3%14.5%17.9%-8.2%9.6%37.2%36.4%36.9%14.2%14.4%14.2%1.2%-1.9%0.3%44.7%43.2%44.2%27.0%10.8%21.0%44.1%-0.4%27.2%35.3%34.1%34.9%wind wind 2021 2269.HK 2359.HK yoy yoy yoy Yoy 2018 25.4 57%6.3 152%96.1 24%22.7 83%2019 39.8 57%10.1 60%128.7 34%19.6-14%2020 56.2 41%16.9 67%165.4 28%30.4 60%2021Q1-Q3 44.1 2021H1 127%18.4 2021H1 148%165.2 40%31.7 50%2021 102.9 83%33.9 101%229.0 39%50.9 72%2021Q4 58.3 2022H2 59%15.5(2021H2)63%63.8 35%14.3 142%3759.HK 6821.HK yoy yoy yoy yoy 2018 29.1 27%3.3 47%18.3 29%4.3 25%2019 37.6 29%5.6 61%24.6 34%5.5 29%2020 51.3 37%11.3 114%31.5 28%7.2 30%2021Q1-Q3 53.0 48%9.9 32%29.2 40%6.9 37%2021 74.4 45%16.0 42%45.1-46.6 43%-48%10.4-10.8 44%-49%2021Q4 21.4 38%6.1 65%15.8-17.4 48%-63%3.4-3.8 64%-81%wind CDMO 2018-2021 CDMO 77.7 96.1 128.7 165.4 165.2 22.9 29.1 37.6 51.3 53.0 18.4 24.6 31.5 29.2 14.2 11.8 11.9 15.5 20.7 20.3 0 50 100 150 2021 CXO 2022Q1 65%-68%2022 65%-70%CXO 200 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1-3 48%40%36%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1-3 25.4 39.8 102.9 0 16.2 20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021H1 2021H2 57%57%83%10%0%56.2 58.3 50%41%44.1 40%30%20%70%60%90%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q3 30%2021 2021Q3 30%+2020Q2 2021Q2 CXO 59.84 20.16 11.63 7.74 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 31%64%42%37%-20%0%20%40%60%80%6.6 9.6 10.6 14.8 16.1 23.7 19.5 36.7 44.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 61%54%52%60%21%55%126%59%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%58.3 140%2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2020 5 CXO CXO 44.1 31.5 27.8 12.8 17.5 2.2 1.9 40 20 0 60 80 100 140 120 2018 2019 2020 75%86%56%88%40%84%21%28%0%20%40%60%80%123.9 100%2018 2019 2020 41.2 7.0 24.6 3.7 19.0 3.2 8.5 4.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 2018 2019 2020 25%14%44%12%60%16%79%72%40%20%0%60%CXO 120%100%80%2018 2019 2020 CXO CXO 2021Q3 35%+2021H1 52%25%-35%56%27%37%45%20%30%40%50%60%25%19%0%10%20%30%40%50%39%42%39%41%42%42%40%48%52%43%45%40%35%30%25%20%50%CXO 55%2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 14%17%24%26%28%24%38%26%42%27%20%15%10%5%35%30%25%45%40%2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 CXO 2020 18A 20.95 5.51 5.13 2.29 0 5 10 15 20 25 40.7 20.0 273%40%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 CPEX yoy 2359.HK 42%39%39%38%37%17%24%15%18%22%22%16%0%5%10%15%20%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1-3 CRDMO CTDMO 2022 65%2021 229 39%51 72%2022 1-2 65%+2022Q1 81.68-83.16+65%-68%2022 377.9-389.3+65%-70%2021 2020 30.48%2021Q1-3 41%2020 22%16%389.3 70%72%20%0%-20%-40%100%80%60%0 50 100 150 200 300 30%250 229.0 40%25%350 400 450 2022E 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy CDMO CDMO 23%CRDMO Wuxi Chemistry 62.6%2021 Wuxi Chemistry 31+1666 42 CDMO 2022 70%15 9 2022 H2 140.9 45.3 19.9 12.5 10.3 0 50 100 150 200 250 2018 2019 2020 2021 CTDMO 528 1318 257 109 40 16 49 42 693 994 1314 1666 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1800 1600 1400 2018 2019 2020 2021 III I II CDMO CGT CDMO CGT CDMO CGT CDMO CTDMO Wuxi ATU 53 8 11 4 2021 CDMO 6.7%65.7%2021 3 Oxgene TESSA AAV 10 2022 WuXi ATU 2023 ATU CGT CDMO 23 24 53 8 14 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 I II/III 2019 2020 2021 11.0 10.3-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 CTDMO yoy 2269.HK CDMO 2014 2 27 CDMO CDMO 2019 78.6%2022 45%2021 102.9 83%33.9 148%2022 45%2021 47%33%102.9 148%40%20%0%0 20 40 60 80 100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021H1 2021H2 41%40%42%45%47%15%25%25%30%33%10%5%15%160%45%140%40%120%35%100%30%80%25%60%20%120 180%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CDMO/cGMP/Lonza Bochringer Ingelhelm Patheon Catalcnt CMC Samsung Biologics CDMO Biotech-the-the-2021 CDMO CDMO 2021 63%-the-the-2019 5%2021 10%2025 18.9%10.3%9.9%8.3%8.4%6.9%37.2%Lonza WuXi Biologics Catalent Samsung Biologics Fujiflim BI 7%7%5%5%3%2%71%Lonza BI WuXi Biologics Catalent Samsung Biologics CMC 2019 CDMO 2.4%3.2%5.1%6.4%10.3%2%0%4%6%8%10%12%2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2017-2021 2021 480 32 9 4 3 mRNA 2 97 121 169 268 253 68 85 103 119 114 26 27 32 52 47 13 16 32 28 1 1 2 28 9 5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 I II III 4 175 334 9 34 33 62 39 60 40 43 72 243 480 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2021 2020 2019 2018 43.7%38.9%50.0%59.0%3.0%43.7%67.4%2-6 2-6 2021 12 31 156 2021 7 9 2022-2023 2-4 2024-2025 4-6 2021 4 4.6 2022 3 2021年综合 项目保 持高 速 增长，结构 健康 2021/12/31 2020年综合 项目保 持高 速 增长，结构 健康 2020/12/31 2021 年剔 除 新冠 贡 献业务 发展势头 迅猛，增 长动 力 强劲 2021/12/31 6821.HK 2021 CDMO+API+2021 2021 45.8 46%10.4 44%45%23%-24%29.2 45.8 6.95 10.4 46%44%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1-3 2021E yoy yoy 52%47%46%47%45%24%23%23%23%24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1-3 2022 80 CDMO CDMO 20 2021H1 CDMO 8.29 CDMO 7.87 6.88%2021 4.81 27.20 2022 35.42 80 2022 413 42 199 32 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 800 700 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 TJ1 5.35 API cGMP TJ2 7.47 cGMP TJ3 199.25 cGMP FX1 618 RSM+FX2 372.1 RSM+DH1 1490.6 cGMP RSM DH2 287 SH/TJ3 160 2021 DH1 1000 2021 DH2 230 2021 DH3 1200 2022 ZJ 300 2022 CXO VS TTM wind 2022 3 25 20 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 TTM CXO TTM 2018H2 2019H2 2020H2 2021 7 2 CDE 2021 12 CDMO 2022 2 CXO wind 2022 3 25 58 50 0 100 250 200 150 2018/12/13 2019/2/13 2019/4/13 2019/6/13 2019/8/13 2019/10/13 2019/12/13 2020/2/13 2020/4/13 2020/6/13 2020/8/13 2020/10/13 2020/12/13 2021/2/13 2021/4/13 2021/6/13 2021/8/13 2021/10/13 2021/12/13 2022/2/13 2359.HK PE TTM 232 417 59 0 100 200 300 400 500 2017/6/13 2018/6/13 2019/6/13 2020/6/13 2021/6/13 2269.HK PE TTM 52 0 50 100 3759.HK PE TTM 84 75 0 20 40 60 250 216 120 200 100 150 80 2021/12/10 2022/1/10 2022/2/10 2022/3/10 6821.HK PE 2022 PE 50-70 2269.HK 2359.HK 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 56.2 102.9 145.0 204.6 165.4 229.0 347.5 439.5 yoy 41.0%83.3%40.9%41.1%28.5%38.5%51.7%26.5%16.9 33.9 47.4 66.7 29.6 51.0 73.2 92.3 yoy 66.6%100.6%39.8%40.8%59.6%72.2%52.3%26%ROE 8.2%10.5%13.6%16.1%9.1%14.1%16.9%17.9%ROA 8.6%10.9%10.3%13.1%7.9%10.9%11.6%12.6%PE 79 57 40 77 54 43 UVL 2022 2022 50%+3759.HK 6821.HK 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 51.3 74.4 98.5 130.7 31.5 45.0 91.3 102.2 yoy 36.6%45.0%32.3%32.8%28.0%43.0%102.8%11.9%11.7 16.6 21.1 28.3 7.2 10.4 21.3 23.9 yoy 114.3%41.7%26.8%34.5%30.4%44.2%104.2%12.6%ROE 13.2%17.3%17.3%19.2%12.1%14.4%23.0%21.0%ROA 10.5%10.4%12.3%13.8%13.2%11.7%17.0%16.5%PE 64 50 38 106 52 46 2022 CDMO 3 2022 100%+2022 3 25 THANKS!