老龄化和自动化的双重威胁.pdf

1 THE TWIN THREATS OF AGING AND AUTOMATION 2 Executive Summary 3 The Rise of the Older Worker 4 The Rise of Automation 9 The Susceptibility of Older Workers to Automation 11 The Average Risk of Automation to Older Workers 15A Country Analysis 16Key Drivers 20 Retaining and Redeploying the Older Worker 24 Conclusion 25 Appendices 26 CONTENTS3 Workforces around the world have experienced a number of serious challenges in recent years from rapid globalization, to significant business cycle troughs, to fights for gender equality . T wo trends, however , are today unprecedented in their scope: widespread societal aging, and the automation of work by intelligent technologies. The confluence of these two trends raises one crucial question: What effect will increased workplace automation have on older worker populations? In an environment where the demand for particular kinds of labor is diminishing, older workers skilled in the work of yesterday might be at risk of being excluded from the economies of tomorrow. This report finds that across several major economies, older workers are at mid-to-high risk of being displaced by automation. Using data on older workers from the United Nations (UN), and data on automation from Oxford researchers Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, this report puts forth estimates for the average risk of automation to older workers across a sample of 15 countries. Our results show that countries with higher rates of projected aging tend to also have larger proportions of older workers at risk of automation. China and Vietnam, for example, have the highest rates of aging and the highest risk scores in our 15-nation sample. Meanwhile, Canada and Australia have the lowest rates of aging and the lowest risk scores. The risks are particularly pronounced across Asia, as well as in parts of Europe such as Germany and Italy . The report also explores potential explanatory factors behind the variation in automation risk to older workers. In investigating why some countries have more at-risk older workers than others, we have identified a variety of themes likely to be pertinent. In particular , education levels, the size of the manufacturing sector , the level of public spending, and the strength of legal rights around financial systems are found to be strong predictors of the automatability of older-persons work in a nation. This report also emphasizes that older workers tend to face unique difficulties in the labor market such as high long-term unemployment and age discrimination and so are prone to particularly harsh fallouts from displacement by new technologies. Concerted efforts on the part of governments and companies to devise strategies for encouraging and accommodating the older worker will be crucial in the coming decades. As automation increasingly enables unprecedented levels of productivity, firms capacity to invest in new revenue streams and new economies will expand. Investing in younger workers will become increasingly difficult as young populations shrink but older workers in aging nations are increasingly willing and able to engage in meaningful work. Given the opportunities older workers present, this report aspires to start conversations around the risks older workers face in this age of automation and inspire discussions on overcoming them. In an environment where the demand for particular kinds of labor is diminishing, older workers skilled in the work of yesterday might be at risk of being excluded from the economies of tomorrow. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4 Increased life expectancies and decreasing birth rates across the world mean that working-age populations are shrinking in many major economies. For example, UN data shows that Chinas working- age population as a percent of the total population will shrink by 5 percent between 2015 and 2030, denoting a contraction in the size of the young labor force by the millions. Concurrently, the number of Chinese citizens aged 65 and above as a percent of the total population is projected to expand by over 7 percent into 2030 a pattern that is taking hold around the world, both in developed and emerging markets. (See Exhibit 1.) Many economists have expressed concern over the combined effect of these demographic changes, positing that the erosion of younger workforces could result in slowed productivity and labor shortages. Marsh The Centre on Aging Mercer (2018). The New Imperatives for Financial Security , Global Report Source: APRC analysis Exhibit 5: Societal aging pushes firms to seek alternative sources of productivity 89 Along with the rise of the older worker , workforces are also reckoning with the rise of the digital worker . Unprecedented developments in computational power , the spread of connected data-gathering devices, and the rapid sophistication of self-learning algorithms have led to exponential growth in new technologies in recent years. (See Exhibit 6.) Such rapid developments are not only disrupting value chains and industries, but are revolutionizing the fundamental nature of work. Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and robotic process automation are just some of the myriad technologies emerging today. Many of these technologies are still in development, but will likely proliferate across global workplaces by 2030. Source: Oliver Wyman Exhibit 6: Acceleration into the 4th Industrial Revolution, powered by new technologies 1845 2030 2000 1950 1900 INNOVATION 1 strevolution STEAM Late 19s 2 ndrevolution ELECTRICITY 18901920 3 rdrevolution INDUSTRY 19501980 Steam power Railroad Steel Cotton Electricity Chemicals Combustion engine Electronics Aviation Space services 4 threvolution DIGITAL 20002030 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING THE NATURE OF WORK THE RISE OF AUTOMATION10 Exhibit 7: Mercer Technology Industry Analysis 2018 THREE SHIFTS ARE UNDERWAY 1. UNBUNDLING OF WORK FROM JOBS 2. NEW WORK, NEW SKILLS 3. HIGHER COGNITIVE COMPLEXITY OF HUMAN WORK Jobs are no longer the organizing unit for work; rather, there is a redistribution of tasks between humans and machines, depending on who is best suited to do the job With the rise of new technologies, we will see the emergence of new roles associated with the design, development and maintenance of new technologies The human workforce of the future will execute tasks requiring higher cognitive and emotive complexity, and activities requiring the application of general intelligence As the use of these technologies expands, their deployment in the workplace will severely impact repetitive, low-skill labor . Routine and manual work has been on the decline since the 1970s, and this decline will likely accelerate due to todays technological developments. 9In a recent report on the Future of Jobs, the World Economic Forum estimated that between 2015 and 2020, 7.1 million jobs will be lost (largely in office and administrative functions, as well as in manufacturing and production), and just 2 million will be gained (spread out across several different functions, from financial operations to management to engineering) 10 . Factory workers, secretaries, and delivery staff are already seeing many of their tasks being taken over by computers and robots. Mercer predicts three fundamental shifts in the workplace as a result of these developments: the concept of “work” becoming structured more around tasks rather than jobs; a rise in the importance of technology-related and cross-functional skills; and an increase in the cognitive complexity of human work. (See Exhibit 7.) Human work will need to evolve rapidly to keep pace in fact, the WEFs Future of Jobs report warns that only 35 percent of todays skills will be applicable in 2020. The development of advanced technologies and the resulting skills gaps could indeed pose serious risks of displacement to workers with low or basic skills. 9. Citibank (2016). T echnology at Work v2.0 10. World Economic Forum (2016). The Future of Jobs. Source: Mercer