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Global Market Research 2018 An ESOMAR Industry Report in cooperation with BDO Accountants nonetheless all anecdotal evidence from commentators in those markets is positive, and some of them have successfully expanded their local measure to incorporate a wider selection of services and providers. The relationship between local currency measures and then the subsequent impact of inflationary effects and/ or currency exchange rates, remains challenging; nonetheless, only very few markets show a decline in local currency terms (and the biggest market USA records above average growth of +1.6%). As with each version of this report, we are delighted to announce a couple of improvements: broader market measurements are now available in Australia, Nigeria and Pakistan, and with this change in methodology, we look forward to having trend data next year. Sadly, we have had to again exclude Venezuela from our calculations this year, as market economic conditions make it nigh-on impossible to collect any reliable market estimates. This issue sees our commentary chapters concentrate on automation, 7 FOREWORD “ Only very few markets show a decline in local currency terms.“ Foreword A.I. and some of the newer trends in our profession, all of which make for fascinating reading! Lastly (and as always), we owe a very large debt of gratitude to the many people who make this study possible. Firstly, to the Sounding Board, who help us to review and refine the data collection process each year (all changes to which are detailed in Chapter 9) thank you! Then, to the Trade Associations, industry experts, interviewees and ESOMAR representatives, all of whose contributions and support is essential to the production of this report thank you, one and all for all of your invaluable input we have listed them all in the Acknowledgements. I would also like to extend a very special word of thanks to our tireless and dedicated partners - John Smurthwaite (ESOMAR APAC Ambassador), Diane Bowers (Consultant), Robert van Heeg (Journalist), Ned May (Outsell), Suzy Young (WARC), Jakub Fuln (Admosphere), Gijs van Blokland and Jaired Defares (DataIM) and especially the team at BDO Robbert van Kleef and Simone van Belkum - whose time, efforts, regional expertise, guidance and contribution are critical to the success of the GMR. I hope this report will continue to provide you with the authoritative review of the market it aspires to, and I look forward to any thoughts or suggestions you may have, on how we could further improve it to meet your needs. With best regards, Finn Raben ESOMAR Director General8 8 89 1. Highlights 9 This chapter offers insight into the behaviour of the industry for 2017, looking at results and trends for the world, the worlds regions and the most noteworthy countries, as well as a view on types of clients, methods and projects. 910 Global market research turnover 2017 US$ 45,829 million Regional shares of total turnover 2013/17 45% (+1) North America $20,574 1% Middle East $414 1% Africa $536 35% (-1) Europe $15,937 15% Asia Pacific $6,756 3% Latin America $1,612 1.1 HIGHLIGHTS THE TOP LINE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Relative stability defined the industry along 2017, showing the consolidation of some of the trends observed in previous years. All in all, turnover in net terms grew by a moderate 1.0%, mainly affected by two opposite forces, on the one hand the healthy growth reported by the United States (1.6%), and on the other the slight decline estimated for what we have categorised as the 15 core European Union countries (-0.7%), these two areas alone representing over 75% of the world market. Global turnover, thus, sits at almost UD$ 46 billion. In this chapter, we will break down this number to create a proper diagnosis of the situation of the industry. Of particular significance is the variation in the representation each region has in the world picture. Long term trends are relatively sticky, and regions have not shifted their positions substantially. However small, in the last 5 years the world has seen a relative decline of the European prominence, in favour of both North America and The top line Europe North America Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Middle EastESOMAR estimates. Rounded figures presented. Percentage-point changes in market share compared to 2016 are provided between brackets. See chapter 9, table 9.2.1, for regional data11 1.0% -0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 2.9% 2.6% World Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Net growth rates 2017 (adjusted for inflation) THE TOP LINE HIGHLIGHTS North America Asia Pacific. It will be interesting to observe the macroeconomic evolution of this region in the future, particularly given its historically low growth rates as compared to the rest of the world. As far as market research is concerned, 2017 saw the shrinkage of Europes share in the world landscape by 1 percentage point, down to 35%. Market research is a rapidly changing industry, and a number of new players have appeared on the scene that either did not exist in the past, or simply became at some point direct competitors of the established brands. We examine this emerging (and definitely sizeable!) area of research later on in this chapter (section 1.8 - New approaches to market research) and present the figures through which we have arrived at an extra turnover, estimated over US$ 30 billion. Incorporating this figure into our estimates for the traditionally defined market research turnover (thus excluding any number that would result in double-counting amounts), the total value of the industry now exceeds US$ 75 billion! There are a few interesting highlights. None of the regions of the world recorded higher growth than 3%, showing a general moderation in reported turnovers. China overtakes Japan once again and becomes the 5th largest market globally. Prospects for the industry in 2018 remain positive, albeit slightly less optimistic than for 2017 (as we will see in section 1.7 Outlook for 2018). 1.4% Exchange rate fluctuations eliminated. IMF inflation rates (chapter 9, table 9.8) used to determine growth.12 15,981 18,556 16,420 15,821 15,937 -1.4% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -0.8% Turnover US$m Net growth (%) 2.8% 1.6% -0.4% Europe- Market research turnover 2013 2017 (US$ millions) 1.2 HIGHLIGHTS REGIONAL PROFILES Regional profiles Europe The numbers for Europe show an uncomfortable reality for the region, as it sits on the edge of a flat growth performance (1.7% in absolute terms, but -0.4% in net ones). A large part of the positive absolute growth (almost 70%) comes thanks to the United Kingdom and Russia, the former mainly due to inflationary effects which get corrected when calculating net growth, and the latter due to the significant recovery experienced by the country which is bringing it back to previous levels. Of the 3 largest markets, the United Kingdom is the only one showing a positive growth rate, whereas Germany and France experienced slight declines in national turnover. Despite the uncertainty and caution regarding the potential impact of Brexit, and the increasing tendency to bring research in-house (due to data-hosting concerns over the new GDPR laws and the accessibility to big data and the technologies that empower it), demand for research in the United Kingdom remained high and was mainly driven by the traditional companies. Faced with many of the same challenges as the rest of the countries, Germany is also experiencing the impact of other market research tools like DIY solutions, which offer cheaper and faster insights. Acting upon a perceived risk associated with such DIY systems: namely the potential loss of quality that may come from a non-researcher using the system, part of their focus consists on further developing their automated solutions while maintaining high quality of results. Immersed in what appears to be a period of relative flat growth, France is experiencing a shift in the business models of the industry, and while the largest players seem to be struggling to See chapter 9, table 9.2.3, for country data. Exchange rate fluctuations eliminated. IMF inflation rates used to determine growth.13 Russia Romania Hungary Poland Estonia Lithuania Bulgaria Portugal Cyprus 7.6% 7.3% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% Top 10 Fastest growing markets in Europe according to net growth rates (%) REGIONAL PROFILES HIGHLIGHTS adapt to these rapid changes, medium- sized companies have demonstrated the ability and the means to cover the clients needs while adapting to the landscape. However, ever-shrinking margins seem to be holding the industry in a tight grip. Whereas the region has remained relatively stable over 2017, 2 countries have experienced a severe effect of inflation on their growth rate. Ukraine, still experiencing the turbulence caused by conflict in the East of the country but presenting positive economic results, saw an excellent absolute growth of 10.2% turned to a negative 3.7% due to the correction of inflationary effects, mainly due to a swift increase in wages in the country. Turkey, on the other hand, suffered from strong depreciation of the lira. Despite a satisfactory absolute growth rate of 5.6%, resulting from an increased domestic demand, the country slides into the negative when adjusted by the strong inflation rate. Other markets worth mentioning are Russia, which records the highest growth rate for 2017 in Europe, and the so-called “New EU member states”, which combine a very satisfactory growth rate of 4.2% in net terms and whose members populate the rest of the top-10 fastest growing markets in Europe (except for Portugal, the 9th fastest growing market for the second year in a row).LatviaSee chapter 9, table 9.2.3, for country data. Exchange rate fluctuations eliminated. IMF inflation rates used to determine growth.
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