资源描述
Economic Research September 2, 2019 Global Data Watch: Asia US-China trade tensions ratchet up again In the past couple of weeks, China raised its tariffs on US imports to 10% from 5% on US$75bn of goods, effective on September 1, and re-imposed 25% and 5% tariffs on auto and auto parts imported from the US, effective December 15. The US responded with 5% additional tariffs on approximately US$550 billion worth of Chinese imports. For the existing 25% tariffs on ap-proximately US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports, the US will begin the process of increasing the tariff rate to 30%, effective October 1 following a notice and comment period. For the remaining 10% tariffs on approximately US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports announced earlier this month, the tariffs will now be raised to 15%, effective on the already scheduled dates: September 1 for list 4.A products with estimated import value of US$129bn, and December 15 for the rest. If all these newly announced tariff are imple-mented, the average US tariff on Chinese imports will increase by another 4.9%-pts to 21.7% from 16.8% and the average China tariff on US imports will increase by another 3.6%-pts to 18.8% from 15.2%. While the growth impact for 2019 likely will be limited given that the tariffs on US$300 billion of exports will only be implemented at year-end, the im-pact on growth next year will be more noticeable. We thus maintain our 2019 GDP forecast at 6.2%y/y, but lower our 2020 growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.0%. Chinas policy reaction likely will not deviate from our current fore-casts: (i) modest fiscal expansion, with the augmented fiscal deficit increasing by 0.8%-pt in 2019 and 0.4%-pt in 2020; (ii) two more RRR cuts and 10bp OMO policy rate cuts, with TSF growth increasing marginally to 11%-12%; (iii) the USD/CNY exchange rate to reach 7.35 at end-2019 and 7.40 in mid-2020. The new interest rate reform could foster monetary policy transmission and opens the door for lower bank lending rates, but the adjustment likely will be gradual in the near term. In a risk scenario that the trade war further esca-lates and broadens with a more substantial knock-on to growth, the govern-ment likely will deploy more policy stimulus in 2020, including additional RRR cuts or rate cuts, accelerating infrastructure investment, and subsidies to consumers, while the CNY would depreciate further. A temporary lull in trade flows, policy preempts Despite the negative headlines on tariffs, EM Asias recent trade data paint a more benign picture. Exports look to have bottomed in late 2Q19, juxtaposed against weakening capital goods demand, and we also expect the August manufacturing PMIs in China, Korea, and Taiwan, due next week, to stabilize (Figure 1). However, the recent swings in regional exports likely owe largely to the impact of the tariffs, with front-loading of tariffed exports followed by a drop after the imposition of tariffs skewing the export data (Figures 2 and 3). We expect that tariff-related shocks will dominate EM Asia trade flows again through the rest of the year, especially if the US tariffs on US$300 billion in imports from China, effective September 1 and December 15, remain in place. This could again lead to front-loading of exports followed by a contraction over late 3Q19 and late 4Q19 and 1Q20. However, if and when the dust around tariffs settles, we do not expect the underlying macro environment to be conducive to a sustained capex revival, especially if corporate profits come under pressure, with a knock-on to EM Asias exports. Sin Beng Ong (65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ongjpmorgan JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch jpmorganmarkets Contents US-China will weigh more on Japans growth than US-Japan 6 Debt crises in Asia and their lessons for China 10 India: An implicit fiscal stimulus 14 Australian labor supply: Demographic lags and NAIRU drags 17 Data Watches Japan 19 Australia and New Zealand 23 China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 25 Korea 28 ASEAN 30 India 34 Asia focus 36 Regional Data Calendars 37 Economic Research Global Data Watch: Asia September 2, 2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Sin-gapore Branch Sin Beng Ong(65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ongjpmorgan This latter consideration likely has prompted policy to turn more supportive. In Korea, the government announced an expansionary 2020 budget plan this week, proposing 9.3%y/y growth in spending compared with the original 2019 budget (or 8.0% com-pared with the supplementary 2019 budget) after 9.9% growth in 2019. As we expect revenue growth to slow materially, we now see the fiscal balance falling to a deficit of 0.9% of GDP after a 0.6% surplus in 2019, buffering the downside risk from rising trade tensions. While we had expected a preemptive Bank of Korea easing in August as a close call, the MPC chose to wait and hint at near-term action. That is, two dovish members dissented for a cut, and the governor highlighted uncertainty on the growth path and downside risk to the inflation outlook. Thus we continue to expect two more easing actions by 1H20. The timing is fluid, yet disappointing inflation pressure likely would lead to a 25bp cut in October. We maintain a follow-up cut in 1Q20 but as a closer call given the BoKs cautious stance, and depending on incoming data and the impact from trade tensions. Indias growth woes worsen; fiscal and monetary policy to act in tandem Indias growth woes worsened with 2Q GDP printing at just 5%oya, much below ex-pectations (J.P. Morgan and consensus: 5.7% oya). Unsurprisingly, private consump-tionwhich has been the linchpin of Indias growth in recent yearscollapsed in 2Q, reflecting tighter financial conditions in the shadow-banking system, a struggling auto sector, and adverse agrarian terms-of-trade that are depressing rural purchasing power. Thus far, monetary policy has borne the brunt of the policy response with policy rates being eased by 110bp in 2019. Fridays downside surprise to GDP increases our con-viction of more easing, and we expect another 25bp at the October review. By contrast, policymakers have struggled to find fiscal policy space because total public sector bor-rowing is already consuming all household financial savings. Therefore, the finance minister studiously eschewed a fiscal stimulus when announcing a series of sector-specific measures last week. However, authorities caught a break this week. The RBI Board accepted an expert committees recommendation to transfer “surplus capital” from the RBIs balance to fiscal authorities to the tune of 0.3% of GDP. This is tanta-mount to an asset sale on the Budget but because asset sales are counted above the line in India, this will effectively translate into a fiscal impulse of 0.3% of GDP this year (India: An implicit fiscal stimulus). Fiscal and monetary policy acting in tandem should buffer the downside risks to our full-year growth forecast of 6.4%, which is already below consensus. 2Economic Research Global Data Watch September 2, 2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Sin-gapore Branch Sin Beng Ong(65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ongjpmorgan 3Economic Research Global Data Watch: Asia September 2, 2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Sin-gapore Branch Sin Beng Ong(65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ongjpmorgan Regional Economic Outlook in Summary Source: National statistics authorities and J.P. Morgan Total % of perbillion region capita 2017 2018 2019f 2017 2018 2019fJapan 4,971 n.a 39,287 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.4Australia 1,432 n.a 57,305 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.4New Zealand 205 n.a 41,966 3.1 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.3Emerging Asia 21,504 100.0 6,499 6.2 5.9 5.4 2.0 2.3 2.3ex China and India 5,169 24.0 9,172 4.1 3.7 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.4China 13,608 63.3 9,771 6.8 6.6 6.2 1.5 2.1 2.5Hong Kong SAR, China 363 1.7 48,717 3.8 3.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.5India 2,726 12.7 2,016 7.2 6.8 6.4 3.6 3.4 3.3Indonesia 1,042 4.8 3,894 5.1 5.2 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.8Korea 1,619 7.5 31,363 3.2 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.5Malay sia 354 1.6 11,239 5.7 4.7 4.3 3.8 1.0 0.8Philippines 331 1.5 3,103 6.7 6.2 5.5 2.9 5.2 2.5Singapore 364 1.7 64,582 3.7 3.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8Taiw an, China 590 2.7 25,018 3.1 2.6 2.1 0.6 1.3 1.0Thailand 505 2.3 7,274 4.0 4.1 3.0 0.7 1.1 0.82017 2018 2019f 2017 2018 2019f 2017 2018 2019fJapan n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.2 3.5 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.Australia n.a n.a n.a -2.6 -2.0 -1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.New Zealand n.a. n.a. n.a. -2.9 -3.7 -3.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.Emerging Asia 369.0 208.6 199.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 5484 5421 5548ex China and India 253.4 215.6 189.8 5.0 4.0 3.6 1944 1996 2048China 164.9 49.1 76.3 1.3 0.4 0.5 3140 3040 3080Hong Kong SAR, China 1.8 10.3 6.8 0.5 2.8 1.8 422 462 492India -49.3 -56.1 -66.3 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 399 385 420Indonesia -17.3 -31.1 -28.6 -1.7 -3.0 -2.6 130 114 109Korea 79.7 69.9 58.9 4.9 4.1 3.5 373 376 379Malay sia 9.4 8.3 12.8 3.0 2.3 3.4 107 109 106Philippines -2.4 -8.0 -7.5 -0.8 -2.4 -2.2 72 71 74Singapore 55.4 65.1 68.8 16.4 17.9 19.8 192 200 206Taiw an, China 82.8 68.8 62.5 14.4 11.7 10.7 451 459 467Thailand 44.1 32.4 16.2 9.5 6.4 3.1 197 204 2152017 2018 2019f 2017 2018f 2019f 2017 2018 2019fJapan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -3.0 -2.7 -2.5Australia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.6 -0.5 -0.1New Zealand n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 0.4 0.5China 4.2 3.1 2.7 491.8 461.8 431.8 -3.0 -2.6 -2.8Hong Kong SAR, China n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.5 1.6 1.0India 19.4 20.3 19.6 90.7 97.7 104.7 -6.6 -6.3 -6.2Indonesia 27.6 26.7 25.2 78.8 78.8 78.8 -2.7 -2.2 -1.9Korea 24.8 24.3 24.8 120.3 123.3 126.3 1.3 1.6 0.6Malay sia 65.2 57.8 55.1 103.5 103.5 103.5 -3.0 -3.7 -3.4Philippines 23.1 21.3 19.8 16.2 16.2 16.2 -2.6 -3.2 -2.7Singapore n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.aTaiw an, China 30.0 30.6 32.2 155.0 163.0 171.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6Thailand 28.8 26.6 26.3 53.4 53.4 53.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.6Real GDPCurrent account Short-term foreign debt% of GDP% of GDP, end of period% y ear-on-y ear2018 Nominal GDP, US$External debtUS$ billion, end of periodCurrent account balanceUS$ billionConsumer prices% y ear-on-y earForeign reservesUS$ billionGovernment balance% of GDP, end of period4Economic Research Global Data Watch September 2, 2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Sin-gapore Branch Sin Beng Ong(65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ongjpmorgan Key economic statistics Source: National statistics authorities and J.P. Morgan 2017 2018 2019f 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19f 4Q19fReal GDP, %-ch over 1 quarter, saarJapan 1.9 0.8 1.1 -0.3 1.6 -1.9 1.6 2.8 1.8 0.2 -2.0Australia 2.4 2.8 1.8 3.9 3.6 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 2.6 3.8New Zealand 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.1 3.8 1.5 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.4Emerging Asia 6.2 5.9 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2ex China and India 4.1 3.7 2.8 4.9 3.0 2.6 3.4 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.8China 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.0 6.1 6.8 5.9 5.9 5.6Hong Kong SAR, China 3.8 3.0 0.3 7.8 -1.2 0.4 -2.0 5.3 -1.6 -2.0 0.0Taiw an, China 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.2 3.2 2.7 1.3 1.4Korea 3.2 2.7 1.9 3.9 2.3 1.8 3.8 -1.5 4.4 2.0 2.0India 7.2 6.8 6.4 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.4 4.8 5.8 7.0 7.6Indonesia 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.8Malay sia 5.7 4.7 4.3 5.3 2.5 6.0 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.0 3.8Philippines 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 8.3 2.6 5.6 5.6 5.6Singapore 3.7 3.1 0.5 4.9 0.7 0.8 -0.8 3.8 -3.3 1.5 1.0Thailand 4.0 4.1 3.0 7.8 4.4 -0.9 3.6 4.2 2.4 3.6 3.2Consumer prices, %oya, averageJapan 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3Australia 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4New Zealand 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.2Emerging Asia 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.6ex China and India 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5China 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.8Hong Kong SAR, China 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.2 3.0 2.8 3.0Taiw an, China 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.9Korea 1.9 1.5 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.5India 3.6 3.4 3.3 4.6 4.8 3.9 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.5Indonesia 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8Malay sia 3.8 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.6 1.5 1.2Philippines 2.9 5.2 2.5 3.9 4.8 6.3 5.9 3.8 3.0 1.8 1.5Singapore 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.6Thailand 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.02017 2018 2019f 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 Current 3Q19f 4Q19fOfficial interest rates, % p.a., end-periodUnited States Fed funds rate 1.75 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.00 2.00Japan Ov ernight call rate -0.10 -0.10 -0.30 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.30 -0.30Australia Cash rate 1.50 1.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00New Zealand Cash rate 1.75 1.75 0.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.00 1.00 0.75China 1-y ear w orking capital 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35Taiw an, China Official discount rate 1.38 1.38 1.25 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.25Korea Base rate 1.50 1.75 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.25India Repo rate 6.00 6.50 4.90 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.25 5.75 5.40 5.40 4.90Indonesia1BI rate 4.25 6.00 5.00 5.25 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.25 5.00Malay sia Ov ernight policy rate 3.25 3.25 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75Philippines2Rev erse repo rate 3.00 4.75 4.00 3.50 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.00Thailand 1-day repo rate 1.50 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50Exchange rates, end-periodJapan USD/JPY 112.6 110.0 104.0 111.0 113.6 110.0 110.5 107.7 106.2 106.0 104.0Australia AUD/USD 0.78 0.70 0.66 0.76 0.72 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.66New Zealand NZD/USD 0.71 0.67 0.63 0.70 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.63 0.64 0.63China USD/CNY 6.51 6.88 7.35 6.36 6.87 6.88 6.71 6.86 7.15 7.20 7.35Hong Kong SAR, ChinUSD/HKD 7.81 7.83 7.85 7.84 7.83 7.83 7.85 7.81 7.84 7.85 7.85Taiw an, China USD/TWD 29.66 30.60 32.20 29.70 30.49 30.60 30.84 31.00 31.33 31.80 32.20Korea USD/KRW 1069 1115 1255 1075 1110 1115 1135 1157 1209 1230 1255India USD/INR 63.84 69.78 73.50 67.25 72.50 69.78 69.00 68.95 71.46 72.00 73.50Indonesia USD/IDR 13568 14380 14800 13900 14902 14380 14170 14128 14185 14600 14800Malay sia USD/MYR 4.05 4.13 4.30 3.96 4.14 4.13 4.07 4.13 4.21 4.22 4.30Philippines USD/PHP 49.96 52.50 52.75 52.50 53.99 52.50 52.67 51.24 52.12 52.25 52.75Singapore USD/SGD 1.34 1.36 1.41 1.33 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.39 1.40 1.41Thailand USD/THB 32.58 32.38 31.50 31.90 32.33 32.38 31.63 30.68 30.62 31.30 31.50Vietnam USD/VND 22710 23300 23450 22900 23000 23300 23200 23305 23186 23450 234501. The BI rate for Indonesia reflects announced recalibration effectiv e August 19, 2016. 2. The BSP introduced a recalibrated rev erse repo rate effectiv e June 3, 2016. 5Economic ResearchUS-China will weigh more on Japans growth than US-JapanAugust 30, 2019JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Hiroshi Ugai(81-3) 6736-1173hiroshi.ugaijpmorganYuka Mera(81-3) 6736-1167yuka.merajpmorganEconomic Research NoteUS-China will weigh more on Japans growth than US-Japan Impact of US-Japan
展开阅读全文