2019-2020中国老龄化社会潜藏价值分析报告.pptx

2019-2020中国老龄化社会潜藏价值分析报告,POPULATION AGEING IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WORLD. THE AGED POPULATION IS CURRENTLY AT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN HUMAN HISTORY. UNITED NATIONS人口老龄化正在全世界范围内蔓延。在人类历史上，地球从未 如此老过。联合国,2,WHAT ABOUT CHINA?DID YOU KNOW THAT PEOPLE AGED OVER 60 YEARS OLD ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY 1/5TH OF THE CURRENT TOTAL POPULATION, AND THE NUMBER IS ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED 1/3RD IN THE NEXT THREE DECADES?那么中国呢？你是否知道，中国目前60岁以上的人口占比已接近1/5，未来30年内预期将超过1/3。,3,FOR CHINA THE IMPACT OF AGEING SOCIETY ISALREADY HERE.我们在“预见”的老龄社会，已经“遇见”了。,4,A BRIEF LOOK AT HOW CHINA IS AGEING中国正在如何变“老”,250million,THE SPEED IS FASTSince entering the ageing society era in 1999, the ageing speed ofthe Chinese population has kept increasing. China is now the 2nd fastest ageing country after Japan.,THE LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASESIn 2017, the number of people aged 80+ y/o in China reached 26million, and is estimated to increase to 120 million by 2050. 80+ y/o is the fastest growing age group within the seniors.,THE SCALE IS ENORMOUSBy 2018, there were close to 250 million people aged 60+ y/o inChina, accounting for 18% of the population, and over 160 million people aged 65+ y/o, accounting for 12% of the population.,THE STRUCTURE IS STABLEAgeing population is predicted to peak at 35% of the total population around 2050, and maintain at around 33% over the long term.,33%,NO. 2,26million,速度快自1999年进入老龄社会，中国老龄化的速度持续上涨，是除日本之外老龄化速度最快的国家。,高龄化截至2017年底，中国80岁及以上高龄人口已达2600 万，预计到2050年将增至约1.2亿，是老龄人口中增 长最快的群体。,规模大截至2018年底，中国60岁及以上人口近2.5亿，占总人口的18%，其中65岁及以上超1.6亿，占比12%。,结构稳中国老龄化水平预计在2050年左右达到35%的峰值，此后将长期稳定在33%左右的重度老龄化社会。,Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 根据中国国家统计局数据整理,5,HOWEVER, IS CHINAS POPULATION REALLY GROWING “OLD”?THE SENIORS SAY “NO”.,中年“无限”延长，“老”需要重新定义中年和老年的边界越来越模糊，中年的期限开始不断延长，而对“步入老龄”的心理感知不断延后。生命的长度在伸展，生命的宽度在勃发他们在人生第二场，更自由、更有底气地去探索生命的无限可能。“活力”已不足以形容他们，老龄化群体的潜力早已迸发。,The perceived extension of middle age signifies a redefinition of “old” As the boundary between middle age and old age becomes increasingly blurred, middle age lengthens, and the psychologicalperception of “growing old sets in later.,6,Seniors not only live the length of life, but they also live the breadth of it With a new lease on life, seniors explore the possibilities of life more freely and with more courage than ever before. The potential of the ageing population is already apparent and “vitality doesnt begin to describe their mindset.,但人们真的在变“老”吗? 中国的“老龄化”群体认为 并非如此,PSYCHOLOGICALLY, SENIORS REFUSE TO AGE. THEY REFUSE TO BE DEFINED OR RESTRICTED BY THE TRADITIONAL VIEW OF AN “OLD” PERSON.他们有“变老拖延症”，不愿做传统定义上的“老人”， 不愿被年龄所束缚。,7,Despite the great potential of the ageing market, younger generations are still the main focus for most brands at the moment, while knowledge and understanding of seniors remain limited and shallow. Apart from their economic value, the needs of seniors truly deserve our attention as they created what we have today. Moving forward, we shall think about how we can create a better tomorrow, for them, and also for ourselves.At Wavemaker, we are eager to understand the “current” and “future” senior consumers in China, to portray the true and stereotype-free image of the ageing population. Thus, we are confident to work out how to best reach them, connect with them, and achieve a win-win scenario to not only create a better life for seniors, but also drive growth for our clients with this increasingly important consumer group.老龄市场的潜力已不容小觑，但在当下，品牌仍主要聚焦于年轻世代，对老龄化群体的认识仍知之甚少。除了商机之外，他们的需求更值得我们去关注和关怀。他们创造了今天，而我们又将如何创造明天？而这明天，既是他们的，也是我们的。Wavemaker将目光对准中国“现在”和“未来”的中国城镇老龄化群体，通过全面深入的研究，打破目前存在的对老龄化群体的刻板印象，并去探讨如何触达他们、如何与他们进行连接，在为他们创造美好生活和体验的同时，为客户赢得增长，达到双赢的局面。,8,WHY ARE WE PAYING ATTENTION TO THE AGEING POPULATION?我们为什么关注老龄化人口,There is great social and commercial significance associated with our ageing society. As the largest media group in the world, our mission involves supporting the growth and evolution of the entire industry ecosystem. We remain committed to drawing everyones attention to the societys future as the population gets older. For the development of our industry as well as that of the wider society, it is an enormously important issue.,Patrick Xu 徐俊CEO, GROUPM CHINACEO, WPP CHINA群邑中国区首席执行官WPP中国区首席执行官,Gordon Domlija 高顿CEO, WAVEMAKER CHINAPRESIDENT, WAVEMAKER ASIA-PACIFICWAVEMAKER中国区首席执行官WAVEMAKER亚太区总裁,PLEASE JOIN US TO BUILD A BETTER FUTURE TOGETHER我们呼吁您的关注，携手共建美好的未来,An organization with vision needs to continuously invest into the future. At Wavemaker, we believe that only with serious focus on decoding the future will we be able to seize opportunities to grow our clients and our own business. With this valuable insight into the increasingly important role of seniors in the Chinese economy, we hope pioneers from different industries can join us to co-create a prosperous future together.,The ageing population is no doubt the “Growth Opportunity for NOW” and “Growth Driver for FUTURE” with high importance toboth commercial and social aspects of society. We aim to bridge our understanding of seniors into implications that fuel the strategic development of future growth plans for brands.,Christina Lu 吕宣伶CSO, WAVEMAKER CHINAWAVEMAKER中国区首席战略官,老龄化是兼具社会和商业价值的重要议题。作为 全球最大的媒介传播集团，我们肩负着推动行业 的发展的使命。我们希望引发行业的关注，共同 探索老龄化社会的未来。这不仅对于产业健康， 更之于社会发展，都将产生深远的意义。,任何一家前瞻性的机构都需要持续地投资未来， 而Wavemaker就是这样一家通过认真地投资未来， 继而捕捉增长机会的机构。我们倡导各界伙伴加 入我们，关注已经“遇见”的中国老龄社会，共建 美好未来。,中国的老龄化群体毋庸置疑是”现在的增长变 量，更是未来的增长常量”，其重要性不仅之 于商业价值，更之于社会意义。基于对老龄化 群体的深度洞察，我们致力于为品牌探索推动 未来增长的启示。,9,HOW WAVEMAKER STUDIES SENIORS IN CHINA TODAY我们如何研究中国的老龄化群体,10,TO GAIN A HOLISTIC PICTURE OF CHINAS AGEING SOCIETY, WE COVERED ALL ACCESSIBLE SENIORS, WITH DATA PROJECTION TO NEARLY 115 MILLION CHINESE POPULATION在研究中，我们尽最大限度地覆盖了中国的老龄化群体，数据推及近,11,1.15亿中国人口，旨在全面了解中国老龄社会,Look at “current” and “future” seniorsNearly 30 years age range, people born between 1943and 1970, now aged from 49 to 76 y/oConsider cultural diversities in different regions of China Cover 7 regions, i.e. North West, South West, Middle, South, East, North East, and NorthConsider city tier differencesFrom Tier 1 to Tier 3,Note: This study covers different types of seniors for offline fieldwork, but excludes those in very poor health condition who are inaccessible for survey (e.g. severe diseases, long-term bedridden patients),不仅着眼于现在，同时放眼未来年龄跨越近三十载，1943-1970年间出生，目前49-76岁的人群考虑到中国地域文化的多样性涵盖西北、西南、华中、华南、华东、东北、华北七 大区域考虑到中国城市级别间的差异覆盖一到三线城市注意：本次研究实地考察和调研了不同类型的老龄化群体，但不包括研究无 法接触到的健康极为不佳的人群（如严重疾病、长期卧床等）,OUR RESEARCH LASTED FOR 18 MONTHS TO THOROUGHLY UNDERSTAND SENIORS VIA 3 PHASES,历时18个月，分3个阶段，通过完善的研究框架，从深度和广度全景剖析老龄化群体,CULTURAL SCANNING &VALUE SYSTEM EXPLORATION文化背景与价值体系探究,Literature review to build context andfeed hypothesesAnthropological method to discover how social changes influence value systemGenerational cohort analysis on seniors,文献综述及案头研究人类学方法论探究社会变迁对价值观塑造 的影响针对老龄化人群进行世代族群分析,ETHNOGRAPHYTO DEEP DIVE民族志挖掘,Visited different cities from Tier 1 to 3Visited homes of different types ofseniors across 3 generations,造访一到三线不同城市实地入户深度访问不同类型和年代的 老龄化群体,QUANTIFICATIONTO VALIDATE量化验证,123,Face-to-face offline surveyAcross Tier 1 to 3 cities in 7 regions,线下面对面访问收集定量数据覆盖7大区域的一到三线城市,12,CULTURAL SCANNING & VALUE SYSTEM EXPLORATION文化背景与价值体系探究,TO TRULY UNDERSTAND HOW THEIR VALUES WERE SHAPED, WE TRACED THE SOCIOCULTURAL CHANGES THEYVE BEEN THROUGH在第一阶段，通过人类学方法论，追溯他们的经历，探究社会变迁对价值观的塑造,PHASE 1,War战争,Disaster灾害,Power change体制变革,Economic fluctuation经济起伏,Rise of China中国崛起,Technology innovation科技革新,13,WE GOT INTO THEIR REAL LIVES, HEARING THEIR STORIES AND THOUGHTS, AND CAPTURING THEIR JOYS AND SORROWS我们走入他们的真实生活，聆听他们的故事和心声，感受他们的悲欢与喜乐,Mix respondents in terms ofGender, ageIncome levelEducational level, from junior high to bachelorWorking status, e.g. working, retiredTypes of occupations and industries, e.g. state- owned enterprise, joint venture, entrepreneur, etc.Living status, e.g. with spouse, with kids, solo, etc.混合不同背景的被访者，包括：性别及年龄收入水平教育水平，从初中到本科工作状态，如在职、退休工作性质及行业，如国企、合资、创业等居住状况，如和配偶、和子女、独居等,14,ETHNOGRAPHY TO DEEP DIVE民族志挖掘,PHASE 2,WE INTERVIEWED EACH SENIOR FACE-TO-FACE OFFLINE, ENSURING OUR DATA AND ANALYSIS WERE AUTHENTIC AND REPRESENTATIVE我们实地考察，面对面搜集量化数据，确保给到真实且具代表性的分析结果,Representative samplingGood mixture of different districts in each fieldwork cityWide coverage of fieldwork venues, e.g. neighbourhood, park, in order to approach respondents with different routinesRandom sampling with intercepting rule,e.g. only interview one individual from a group of seniors,Strict fieldwork executionInterviewers able to communicate withrespondents in local dialectComfortable environment for survey, e.g. venue with chairs,具有代表性的抽样覆盖城市的不同区域选择不同地点访问，如小区、公园等， 确保涵盖不同生活轨迹的人群随机抽样且遵循拦截规则，如同一群老 龄人中只允许访问一个被访者,严谨的访问执行访问员可以用方言与被访者交流访问地点环境舒适，适于访问,Fieldwork photos街头拦截访问照片,15,QUANTIFICATION TO VALIDATE量化验证,PHASE 3,They may be seen as他们可能被认为是,LET US MEET THE SENIORS AND REMOVE ANY POSSIBLE,STEREOTYPED AND BIASED PERCEPTIONS我们邀您一同“重遇”老龄化群体，打破那些可能的刻板印象和偏见,Distant from “now” and falling behind the times与时代有距离的,16,Facing health challenges, need to be taken care of面临健康困扰需要照料,Living a life that seems lonely and boring生活略显孤单乏味,17,SENIORS IN CHINA: THE “HIDDEN TREASURE”中国老龄化社会的潜藏价值,18,THREE GENERATIONS OF THE AGEING POPULATION IN CHINA,中国老龄化群体的世代划分,Birth years出生年份Age now目前年龄,MAJOR GENERATIONS OF THE WESTERN WORLD 西方主流划分,Z,GENERATIONS OF CHINA 中国世代划分,THE AGEING POPULATION IN CHINA STRETCHES ACROSS MULTIPLEGENERATIONS,20,中国的老龄化群体跨越了多个代际SENIORS 老龄化群体,WE HAVE REDEFINED THE OLDER GENERATIONS BASED ON THESOCIOCULTURAL CONTEXT OF CHINA,考虑到中国的特殊性，我们需要“重新”定义和划分老龄化群体,Growing up under entirely different sociocultural and economic environments, seniors in China cannot be generalised as a single group. We group them based on Generational Cohort Analysis.成长于截然不同的社会文化和经济发展时期，中国的老龄化群体不可一概而论。依据世代族群分析，我们将其细分为三代。,123,21,THEIR VASTLY DIFFERENT UPBRINGING HAS SHAPED THE DIFFERENTMINDSETS AND BEHAVIOURS OF THE THREE GENERATIONS,不同的社会时代背景，塑造了截然不同的三代人,1WITNESS OFREVOLUTION革命见证者“A cog in the machine”to create collective value一颗创造集体价值的螺丝钉,2TOUGHENED NEW-CHINA1ST GENERATION百炼成金建国一代Missed opportunities but now restarting life 错失芳华但重启人生,3THE OPENING UPNEWBORNS改革开放新生儿Benefiting from economicand cultural opening经济文化开放的受益人,22,SIGNIFICANT GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES ALSO INDICATE THEDIVERSITY AND VIBRANCY OF THE AGEING SOCIETY IN CHINA,差异化的三代人意味着中国的老龄社会，既具多样性又充满活力123,23,AN INTRODUCTION TO THE VITALITY OF SENIORS IN CHINA TODAY朝气蓬勃的中国老龄化群体,SENIORS ARE REDEFINING MIDDLE AND OLD AGE. THEIR PERCEIVED,LENGTH OF YOUTH AND MID-LIFE ARE BOTH LARGELY EXPANDED他们在重新定义“中年”和“老年”，其主观认知的青年及中年期都大幅度延长,When do you consider as the starting point of你认为多少岁算步入,“,”,MENTALLY, MANY FEEL YOUNG AT HEART AND HAVE DEVELOPED“AGEING PROCRASTINATION” SYNDROME他们发展了“变老拖延症”,58%My mental age is,younger than,my chronological age 认为自己的心理年龄 小于实际年龄,I cared about beauty since young, and now its the same. Who doesnt want to be young and beautiful all the time?年轻的时候就爱美，现在还是， 谁都愿意年轻、漂亮。,Aunt Zhang, 52 y/o, BJ张阿姨，52岁，北京,33%I look,younger than,my chronological age认为自己看上去比实际年龄小,“,PHYSICALLY, THEY CONSIDER THEMSELVES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE,AND ACTIVELY MAINTAIN THEIR HEALTH健康信心足，且积极养身,Very well 很好,Well 还不错,OK 一般般Not very well 不太好Hard to say 说不清,59%are positive about health status对健康状况乐观,TAKE AVG. 4-5 MEASURES FOR HEALTH人均采取4-5种不同的健康措施,Pay attention to diet注意饮食,73%,68%,Do exercise运动锻炼,Pay attention to rest注意作息睡眠,51%,Less or no smoking or drinking少或戒烟戒酒,20%,24%,Take dietary supplements吃营养保健品,HEALTH SELF-ASSESSMENT健康自我评价,38%,Have regular health checkup定期体检,Fieldwork photos 访问照片,THEY LIVE A VIGOROUS LIFE, PURSUING DIVERSE HOBBIES AND,CONTINUOUSLY EXPLORING THE WORLD精力充沛，不断探索世界,AVG. 5 LEISURE ACTIVITIES PER PERSON人均参与5种不同的休闲活动,TOP ACTIVITIES 热门活动 (Spontaneous answers 自发回答),74%Walking散步/快走,60%Watching TV看电视,30%Going online上网,30%Music听音乐,24%Tea喝茶/品茶,23%Mahjong/Poker麻将/纸牌,22%Gardening种植花草,20%,Dancing,跳舞/广场舞,18%Shopping逛街/购物,17%Reading阅读看报,17%Bicycling自行车,16%Hiking/climbing徒步/登山,HALF ARE ANNUAL TRAVELLERS半数每年会出游旅行,50%,At least 1 domestic trip every year每年至少1次国内游,9%,At least 1 outbound trip every year每年至少1次出境游,“,My wife and I have been to 80 countries since 1995, and our target is to hit 100 by the time were 80 y/o.从1995年开始，一发不可收拾地去了80个国家。我们的目标是80岁之前走完100个国家。,Uncle Wang, 73 y/o, BJ 汪叔叔，73岁，北京,A GLIMPSE AT THEIR COLOURFUL LEISURE LIFE闲暇掠影：缤纷多彩，动静皆宜,69%Rarely feel lonely极少感到孤独,WITH SUCH PASSION AND ENERGY FOR LIFE, THEY RARELY FEELLONELY如此热爱生活且闲不住的他们，大多并不孤独,Both my wife and I used to be very busy with work, but after retirement, we got more time for each other. We go play ping-pong. Baking is another passion now, taking part in contests and teaching in the community. I also like making baking molds by myself. Plus, our daughter also takes us on overseas travel now and then. Life is even busier than before.我和爱人以前都是各管各工作的，反而退休 之后，相处的时间多了。刚开始和她到社区 里打球，后面小区里搞烘焙，去参加比赛， 也给别人上课，自己会搞搞模具，再加上女 儿也经常带我们去国外玩玩，现在可以说是 比以前上班还忙了。Uncle Teng, 72 y/o, SH 滕叔叔，72岁，上海,70%Claim to be free of negativeemotions, e.g. loneliness, frustration没有个人情绪的忧虑，如孤独，失落,“,”,Fieldwork photos 访问照片,MOREOVER, THEY ASPIRE TO KEEP UP WITH SOCIETY并且，始终寻求进步，希望与时俱进,“Live and learn. First time drawing on porcelain plate, need to be careful and serious. How does the plum blossom look?”,Agree on “Never too old to learn”认同“人就是要活到老，学到老”,Agree that “It is vital to keep learning new things to avoid alienation from the society”认同“人不能和社会脱节，要不断 了解和学习新事物”,97%,94%,Fieldwork photo 访问照片,THEY MAKE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS TO BOTH FAMILY AND,SOCIETY热忱在家庭和社会中发光发热，为此他们永不放弃,81%Agree that “Seniors should not be a burden to family or society”认同“老年人不该成为 家庭和社会的负担”,And they put words into action且付诸于行动,32%are employed now 在职,12%still work after retirement 退休后仍在工作,67%help or support their children 帮子女做事,Volunteering 志愿服务,Taking care of grandchildren 照看孙辈,Fieldwork photos 访问照片,AN OVERVIEW OFSENIORS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED BY BRANDS,老龄化群体绝对不容低估的商业潜力,96%USE SMART PHONEON A DAILY BASIS每天使用智能手机,SENIORS ARE INCREASINGLY A DRIVING FORCE FOR INTERNET,ECONOMY GROWTH在人口红利逐步到顶的今天，老龄化群体会是互联网经济增长的新动力,THEY ARE ACTIVE ONLINE WITH MULTIPLE ACTIVITIES他们活跃于网络，且活动多样化,Typically online activities上网通常做的事Social chat社交聊天,86%,Short video短视频43%,News 新闻 87%,Fooddelivery外卖22%,65%I like surfing the Internet very much 我非常喜欢上网,90%Social社交,Online video看视频76%97%,Information & entertainment 资讯娱乐,Transportation打车出行32%64%,Consumption消费,Fieldwork photos 访问照片,THEY ARE ALREADY FUELLING E-COMMERCE MARKET GROWTH他们已然是互联网消费增长的主力军,