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Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020Published: 21 October 2019 ID: G00432920Analyst(s): David Cearley, Nick Jones, David Smith, Brian Burke, Arun Chandrasekaran, CK LuStrategic technology trends have the potential both to create opportunityand to drive significant disruption. Enterprise architecture and technologyinnovation leaders must evaluate these top trends to determine howcombinations of trends can power their innovation strategies.Key Findings Strategic technology trends have signif_icant potential to create and respond to disruption and topower both transformation and optimization initiatives. Artif_icial intelligence (AI) is a foundational catalyst for advanced process automation and humanaugmentation and engagement. Physical environments including factories, off_ices and cities will become “smart spaces” withinwhich people will interact through multiple touchpoints and sensory channels for an increasinglyambient experience. Dealing with privacy, digital ethics and security challenges generated by AI, the Internet ofThings (IoT)/edge, and other evolving technologies will become critical to maintain trust andavoid legal entanglements.RecommendationsEnterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders must: Center their innovation efforts on people and use tools such as personas, journey maps,technology radars, and roadmaps to evaluate opportunities, challenges and time frames foradoption. Build an overarching view across functional and process silos and exploit a complementary setof tools including RPA, iBPMS, DTO, application development, and AI domains that guide howthe tools are used and the systems they create are integrated. Embrace multiexperience and implement development platforms and design principles tosupport conversational, immersive and increasingly ambient experiences. Establish governance principles, policies, best practices and technology architectures toincrease transparency and trust regarding data and the use of AI.Table of ContentsStrategic Planning Assumptions. 3Analysis.4People-Centric Smart Spaces Build on the Intelligent Digital Mesh. 6Trend No. 1: Hyperautomation.10RPA and iBPMS Are Key Components of Hyperautomation.10The Digital Twin of an Organization. 11Machine Learning and NLP Explode the Range of Hyperautomation Possibilities.12Trend No. 2: Multiexperience. 13Immersive Experiences. 14The Language Factor.15The Multiexperience Development Platform. 16Trend No. 3: Democratization. 17Democratization of Application Development.18Low-Code, No-Code and the Citizen Developer. 19Augmented Analytics and the Citizen Data Scientist. 19Dealing With Shadow AI. 20Trend No. 4: Human Augmentation.21Cognitive and Physical Augmentation. 22Cultural and Ethical Aspects of Human Augmentation. 23Trend No. 5: Transparency and Traceability.25Explainable and Ethical AI and Algorithms.25Data Privacy, Ownership and Control.26Best Practices and Regulations Are Emerging. 28Trend No. 6: The Empowered Edge.29Data, Analytics and AI at the Edge.30Communicating to the Edge The Role of 5G. 31Digital Twin of Things at the Edge. 32Trend No. 7: Distributed Cloud. 33Distributed Cloud Delivers on the Hybrid Cloud Promise.33Getting to Distributed Cloud. 34The Edge Effect. 35Page 2 of 52 Gartner, Inc. | G00432920Trend No. 8: Autonomous Things. 36Common Technology Capabilities.36Combining Autonomous Capabilities and Human Control.37Autonomous, Intelligent and Collaborative. 38Trend No. 9: Practical Blockchain. 39Blockchain Will Be Scalable by 2023. 40Blockchain Use Cases.41Trend No. 10: AI Security.43Protecting AI-Powered Systems. 43Leveraging AI to Enhance Cybersecurity Defense. 44Anticipating Nefarious Use of AI by Attackers. 45List of FiguresFigure 1. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020.5Figure 2. People-Centric Smart Spaces.7Strategic Planning AssumptionsBy 2022, 70% of enterprises will be experimenting with immersive technologies for consumer andenterprise use, and 25% will have deployed them to production.By 2022, 35% of large businesses in the training and simulation industry will evaluate and adoptimmersive solutions, up from less than 1% in 2019.By 2021, at least one-third of enterprises will have deployed a multiexperience developmentplatform to support mobile, web, conversational and augmented reality development.By 2024 75% of large enterprises will be using at least four low-code development tools for both ITapplication development and citizen development initiatives.By 2022, at least 40% of new application development projects will have artif_icial intelligence co-developers on the team.By 2021, automation of data science tasks will enable citizen data scientists to produce a highervolume of advanced analysis than specialized data scientists.By 2025, a scarcity of data scientists will no longer hinder the adoption of data science andmachine learning in organizations.Gartner, Inc. | G00432920 Page 3 of 52By 2022, 30% of organizations using AI for decision making will contend with shadow AI as thebiggest risk to effective and ethical decisions.Through 2023, 30% of IT organizations will extend BYOD policies with “bring your ownenhancement” (BYOE) to address augmented humans in the workforce.By 2020, we expect that companies that are digitally trustworthy will generate 20% more onlineprof_it than those that arent.By 2020, we expect that 4% of network-based mobile communications service providers (CSPs)globally will launch the 5G network commercially.By 2024, most cloud service platforms will provide at least some services that execute at the pointof need.By 2023, blockchain will be scalable technically, and will support trusted private transactions withthe necessary data conf_identiality.Through 2022, over 75% of data governance initiatives will not adequately consider AIs potentialsecurity risks and their implications, resulting in quantif_iable f_inancial loss.Through 2022, 30% of all AI cyberattacks will leverage training-data poisoning, AI model theft oradversarial samples to attack AI-powered systems.AnalysisGartners annual top 10 strategic technology trends (see Figure 1) highlight trends that enterprisesneed to consider as part of their f_ive-year strategic technology planning process. These trends havea profound impact on people and the spaces they inhabit. Strategic trends have broad impactacross industries and geographies, with signif_icant potential for disruption. In many cases, thetrends arent yet widely recognized or the conventional wisdom regarding the trends is shifting (seeNote 1). Through 2025, technologies related to these trends will experience signif_icant changes,cross critical tipping points and reach new levels of maturity that expand and enable repeatable usecases and reduce risk. Technology innovation leaders must examine the business impact of our top10 strategic technology trends and seize the opportunities to enhance existing, or create new,processes, products and business models. Prepare for the impact of these trends they willtransform industries and your business.Page 4 of 52 Gartner, Inc. | G00432920Figure 1. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020The top 10 strategic technology trends are a critical ingredient in driving a continuous innovationprocess as part of a ContinuousNext strategy.1 Technology innovation leaders must adopt a mindsetand new practices that accept and embrace perpetual change. That change may be incremental orradical, and may be applied to existing or new business models and technologies.Technology is changing peoples lives, enabling the ongoing digitalization of business and drivingorganizations to continually refresh their business models. In this long march to digitalization,technology is amplifying continuous change at an ever-increasing velocity. Organizations need toconsider how these strategic trends can be applied across two continuous and complementarycycles: Continuous operations exploit technology to run the business today, modernize it and improveeff_iciency, and incrementally grow the business. Existing business models and technologyenvironments set the stage upon which innovation opportunities are explored and will ultimatelyinf_luence the cost, risk and success of implementing and scaling innovation efforts. Continuous innovation exploits technology to transform the business and either create orrespond to disruptions affecting the business. This innovation cycle looks at more radicalchanges to business models and supporting technologies as well as new business models andtechnologies that extend the current environment.Trends and technologies do not exist in isolation. They build on and reinforce one another to createthe digital world. Combinatorial innovation explores the way trends combine to build this greaterGartner, Inc. | G00432920 Page 5 of 52whole. Individual trends and related technologies are combining to begin realizing the overall visionembodied in the intelligent digital mesh.2 For example, AI in the form of machine learning (ML) iscombining with hyperautomation and edge computing to enable highly integrated smart buildingsand city spaces. In turn, this enables further democratization of the use of technology as businessusers and customers self-serve to meet their individual needs. CIOs and IT leaders are challengedwith a number of “and dilemmas” such as delivering existing services and innovating new services.You can turn “and dilemmas” into “and opportunities” by applying “and thinking,” where thecombined effect of multiple trends coalescing is to produce new opportunities and drive newdisruption. Combinatorial innovation is a hallmark of our top 10 strategic technology trends for2020.People-Centric Smart Spaces Build on the Intelligent Digital MeshThe future will be characterized by smart devices delivering increasingly insightful digital serviceseverywhere. We call this the “intelligent digital mesh.” It can be described as: The intelligent theme explores how AI with a particular emphasis on machine learning isseeping into virtually every existing technology and creating entirely new technology categories.The exploitation of AI will be a major battleground for technology providers through 2022. UsingAI for well-scoped and targeted purposes delivers more f_lexible, insightful and increasinglyautonomous systems. The digital theme focuses on blending the digital and physical worlds to create a natural andimmersive digitally enhanced experience. As the amount of data that things produce increasesexponentially, compute power shifts to the edge to process stream data and send summarydata to central systems. Digital trends, along with opportunities enabled by AI, are driving thenext generation of digital business and the creation of digital business ecosystems. In thisintelligent digital world, massive amounts of rich and varied data are generated, thusnecessitating a greater focus on digital ethics and privacy and on the transparency andtraceability that they require. The mesh theme refers to exploiting connections between an expanding set of people andbusinesses as well as devices, content and services to deliver digital busi
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