钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望.pdf

钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究China Coal Consumption Cap Plan and Policy Research Project201905中国钢铁工业协会China Iron and Steel Industry Association执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT系列报告“十三五”时期重点部门煤控中期评估及后期展望水泥行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望“十三五”电力煤控中期评估与后期展望中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望煤炭转型中的就业问题研究现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望“一带一路”重点区域（国家）环境影响评价体系研究报告“一带一路”可再生能源发展合作路径及其促进机制研究东盟国家可再生能源发展规划及重点案例国研究中国高耗能行业“一带一路”绿色产能合作发展报告“一带一路”电力综合资源规划研究中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国煤控项目“十三五”中期评估与后期展望研究报告中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2018中国大气污染防治回顾与展望报告 2018中国现代煤化工的煤控实施与产业发展煤炭行业继续深化供给侧结构性改革供给侧结构性改革背景下如何实现煤炭行业的公正转型气候变化风险及碳社会成本研究报告中国实现全球 1.5目标下的能源排放情景研究钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革推进水泥行业转型升级，实现绿色低碳发展深化供给侧改革，助推实现部门积极煤控目标建筑领域煤炭消费控制潜力及实施路径研究持续推进电力改革 提高可再生能源消纳执行报告中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2017钢铁行业煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究水泥行业煤控战略（计划）实施研究中国散煤治理调研报告 2017中国煤炭行业供给侧改革关键问题研究城市低效燃煤总量配额交易政策建议报告“去产能”政策对煤炭行业造成的就业影响研究“十三五”电力行业控煤政策研究中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究( 煤控研究项目 )中国是世界煤炭生产和消费第一大国。以煤炭为主的能源结构支撑了中国经济的高速发展，但同时也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。为了应对气候变化、保护环境和减少空气污染，国际环保机构自然资源保护协会 (NRDC) 作为课题协调单位，与包括政府智库、科研院所和行业协会等 20 多家有影响力的机构合作，于 2013 年 10 月共同启动了“中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究”项目，为设定全国煤炭消费总量控制目标、实施路线图和行动计划提供政策建议和可操作措施，以帮助中国实现资源节约、环境保护、气候变化与经济可持续发展的多重目标。 了解更多详情，请登录： coalcap.nrdc/自然资源保护协会（ NRDC）是一家国际公益环保组织，拥有约 300 万会员及支持者。 NRDC 致力于保护地球环境，即保护人类、动植物以及所有生灵所倚赖的生态系统。自 1970 年成立以来，我们的环境律师、科学家和专家一直在为公众享有清洁的水和空气以及健康的社区而努力。通过在科学、经济和政策方面的专业知识，我们在亚洲、欧洲、拉美和北美等地区与当地合作伙伴一起共同推进环境的综合治理与改善。 uni00A0请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc。未完待续，请见封三钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望煤控研究项目系列报告钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT中国钢铁工业协会China Iron and Steel Industry Association2019 年 5 月May 2019煤控研究项目4目录执行摘要 6Executive Summary 81. 钢铁行业发展总体情况分析 101.1 钢铁行业整体发展情况2. 钢铁行业煤控措施及落实情况 192.1 钢铁行业去产能情况2.2 钢铁行业去杠杆情况2.3 钢铁行业超低排放改造情况2.4 钢铁行业绿色发展2.5 节煤减排技术推广情况2.6 结构节煤情况2.7 管理节煤情况3. “十三五”钢铁行业规划目标和煤控指标评估 393.1 “十三五”前半期钢铁行业煤控指标及完成情况3.2 “十三五”后半期钢铁行业煤控指标调整预测5钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望4. “十三五”钢铁行业煤控形势展望及政策建议 444.1 钢铁行业面临的新形势4.2 钢铁行业发展新趋势4.3 “十三五”后半期钢铁行业煤控形势展望4.4 主要政策研究建议参考文献 51煤控研究项目6执行摘要2018年是改革开放40周年。40年来，我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就，钢铁工业顺应国民经济的发展而壮大，为保障国民经济发展提供了重要的基础原材料。但同时钢铁行业在快速发展中也存在能源和煤炭消耗量大，产能过剩，污染物排放高等问题，本报告旨在为解决上述问题，总结经验，提供政策建议及相关支撑。“十三五”以来，钢铁行业大力推进行业供给侧结构性改革。历经三年的努力，提前完成了国家化解钢铁产能 1 亿 -1.5 亿吨的上限目标任务，同时取缔了 1.4 亿吨“地条钢”，有效地优化了市场环境，缓解了产能严重过剩矛盾，发挥了优质产能，提高了企业经营效益。行业抓住盈利向好有利时机，积极推进去杠杆工作，企业资产负债率稳步下降，资产质量明显改善。此外，钢铁行业推动超低排放改造，加快行业低碳绿色发展，积极补齐环保短板，助力打赢蓝天保卫战。“十三五”以来，钢铁行业积极采取有效的节能降煤措施和政策建议，通过结构节煤（如增加废钢利用、提高入炉球团比、新能源利用、产业融合发展等）、技术节煤（如高效余热余能回收、加强节能技术研发及推广应用等）、管理节煤（如加强能源管理、原燃料物流管理等）等多方面节煤措施，推动行业煤炭消耗总量控制，有效降低单位产品煤炭消费量、单位产品污染物排放量，取得了积极成果。2018 年钢铁行业煤炭消费总量为 4.52 亿吨标准煤（tce），较 2015 年煤炭消费总量增加0.27亿tce，增幅6%，与同期粗钢产量增幅15%相比，增幅降低约9个百分点，同时吨钢煤炭消费量从 2015 年的 531 千克标准煤 / 吨钢（kgce/t-s）降低到 2018 年的486 kgce/t-s，降幅达8.4%。这充分表明行业节能节煤技术、结构优化调整等措施应用取得了良好的控煤效果。通过这三年的评估，总结得出：一是钢铁行业煤炭消费总量与生铁产量的正相关关系更加突出；二是废钢资源大量利用，铁钢比明显降低，特别是重点统计钢铁企业的铁钢比从2015年的0.98降至2018年的0.91，降幅达7%，对钢铁节能节煤起到积极有效作用。未来随着钢铁行业稳生产、控产量以及节能节煤、二次能源回收、废钢利用等技术措施进一步采用实施后，钢铁行业煤炭消耗总量总体上是可控的。本次中期评估对“十二五”期间预测的钢铁行业“十三五”煤控目标进行了调整，7钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望原因在于受“地条钢”影响，“十三五”期间粗钢产量的统计口径发生了较大变化，导致基于粗钢产量预测的钢铁行业煤炭消费总量发生了明显偏差，因此需对“十三五”后半期钢铁煤炭消费总量重新做出调整，调整结果见下表。预测指标粗钢产量(亿t)废钢单耗(kg/t)废钢消耗总量(亿t)煤炭消耗总量(亿tce)外购电量 (亿kWh)新水消耗总量(亿m3)2019年9.25 200 1.85 4.49 2128 25.502020年9.00 210 1.89 4.32 2070 24.80煤控研究项目8Executive Summary2018 marks the 40th anniversary of Chinas economic reform and opening-up. Over the past 40 years, China has made remarkable achievements in its economic development. The iron and steel industry has grown and strengthened in line with the development of the national economy, providing important basic raw materials for ensuring Chinas rapid economic development. However, there are various problems with rapid development of the steel industry, including excessive energy and coal consumption, overcapacity and high pollutant emissions. This report aims to summarize experience and provide policy recommendations and related support for solving the above problems.Since the start of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the iron and steel industry has pushed for supply-side structural reform. After three years of efforts, it has achieved the national target of reducing 100-150 million tons of iron and steel production capacity ahead of schedule, and phased out the capacity of 140 million tons of “Ditiaogang” (low-quality steel made from scrap metal). This effectively optimized the market environment and alleviated serious overcapacity, making room for high-quality production capacity and improving business operational benefits. The industry seizes favorable opportunities to make profits and actively promotes deleveraging. The asset-liability ratio of enterprises has decreased steadily and asset quality has improved significantly. In addition, the iron and steel industry promotes upgrading with ultra-low emission standards, accelerates low-carbon and green development, and actively addresses the weak links of environmental protection in order to win the Battle for Blue Skies.Meanwhile, the iron and steel industry has actively taken effective energy-saving measures and policy recommendations to reduce coal consumption. This mainly includes the following three aspects: structural measures including increasing scrap steel utilization, increasing the ratio of pellets in the blast furnace, improving new energy utilization and promoting industrial integration development, etc.; technical measures including high-efficiency waste heat recovery, strengthening energy conservation technology research and application, etc.; and management measures, including strengthening energy management, raw material and fuel management, etc. The above measures, combined with other coal-saving measures have promoted the total coal consumption control in the industry, which effectively reduces coal consumption and pollutant emissions per unit of products.9钢铁行业“十三五”煤控中期评估与后期展望The total coal consumption of the steel industry was 452 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) in 2018, an increase of 27 million tce, or 6% compared with 2015. The growth rate of total coal consumption was about 9 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the total crude steel production (15%) in the same period. Meanwhile, coal consumption per ton of steel decreased from 531 kg coal equivalent per ton of steel in 2015 to 486 kg coal equivalent per ton of steel in 2018, a decrease of 8.4%. This fully shows that applications of energy-saving and coal-saving technology, industrial structural optimization and adjustment measures have achieved good results in controlling coal consumption. Through the three years of assessment, it is concluded that: first, the positive correlation between the total coal consumption and the pig iron production in the steel industry is more prominent. Secondly, the utilization of scrap steel resources greatly reduces the iron-steel ratio, especially in key iron and steel enterprises covered by national statistics institutes (the iron-steel ratio decreased from 0.98 in 2015 to 0.91 in 2018, a decline of 7%), which plays an effective role in saving energy and coal in the industry. In the future, with steady production, output control, energy saving, coal saving, secondary energy recovery, scrap steel utilization, and other technical measures further implemented, controlling total coal consumption in the steel industry is feasible.Due to the impact of “Ditiaogang”, the statistical measure of crude steel production has changed greatly during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, resulting in a significant deviation in estimates of total coal consumption in the iron and steel industry based on crude steel production. Therefore, it is necessary to readjust the total coal consumption of the iron and steel industry in the latter period of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The results of the adjustment are shown in the table below.Year Steel production (Mt)Scrap per ton steel (kg/t)Total scrap consumption (Mt)Total coal consumption (M tce)Electricity consumption (M kWh)Total new water consumption (M m3)2019 925 200 185 449 212800 25502020 900 210 189 432 207000 24801钢铁行业发展总体情况分析