中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望.pdf

中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望CHINAS COAL INDUSTRY THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究China Coal Consumption Cap Plan and Policy Research Project201905煤炭工业规划设计研究院执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT系列报告煤炭转型中的就业问题研究现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望“一带一路”重点区域（国家）环境影响评价体系研究报告“一带一路”可再生能源发展合作路径及其促进机制研究东盟国家可再生能源发展规划及重点案例国研究中国高耗能行业“一带一路”绿色产能合作发展报告“一带一路”电力综合资源规划研究中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国煤控项目“十三五”中期评估与后期展望研究报告中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2018中国大气污染防治回顾与展望报告 2018中国现代煤化工的煤控实施与产业发展煤炭行业继续深化供给侧结构性改革供给侧结构性改革背景下如何实现煤炭行业的公正转型气候变化风险及碳社会成本研究报告中国实现全球 1.5目标下的能源排放情景研究钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革推进水泥行业转型升级，实现绿色低碳发展深化供给侧改革，助推实现部门积极煤控目标建筑领域煤炭消费控制潜力及实施路径研究持续推进电力改革 提高可再生能源消纳执行报告中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2017钢铁行业煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究水泥行业煤控战略（计划）实施研究中国散煤治理调研报告 2017中国煤炭行业供给侧改革关键问题研究城市低效燃煤总量配额交易政策建议报告“去产能”政策对煤炭行业造成的就业影响研究“十三五”电力行业控煤政策研究煤化工产业煤炭消费量控制及其政策研究执行报告建言“十三五”中国煤炭消费总量控制规划研究报告行业部门煤炭消费总量控制研究煤炭消费总量控制目标的协同效应中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究( 煤控研究项目 )中国是世界煤炭生产和消费第一大国。以煤炭为主的能源结构支撑了中国经济的高速发展，但同时也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。为了应对气候变化、保护环境和减少空气污染，国际环保机构自然资源保护协会 (NRDC) 作为课题协调单位，与包括政府智库、科研院所和行业协会等 20 多家有影响力的机构合作，于 2013 年 10 月共同启动了“中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究”项目，为设定全国煤炭消费总量控制目标、实施路线图和行动计划提供政策建议和可操作措施，以帮助中国实现资源节约、环境保护、气候变化与经济可持续发展的多重目标。 了解更多详情，请登录： coalcap.nrdc/自然资源保护协会（ NRDC）是一家国际非营利非政府环保机构，拥有逾 140 万会员及支持者。自 1970 年成立以来，以环境律师、科学家及环保专家为主力的 NRDC 员工们一直为保护自然资源、公共健康及环境而进行不懈努力。 NRDC 在美国、中国、加拿大、墨西哥、智利、哥斯达黎加、欧盟、印度等国家及地区开展工作。请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc。未完待续，请见封三中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望煤控研究项目系列报告中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控 中期评估及后期展望CHINAS COAL INDUSTRY THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT煤炭工业规划设计研究院2019 年 5 月煤控研究项目4目录执行摘要 6Executive Summary 71. “十三五”煤控相关指标完成情况 91.1 煤控相关指标完成情况1.2 2018 年煤控进展1.3“十三五”煤控指标中期评价2. 供给侧结构性改革的进展和成效 202.1 去产能2.2 去杠杆2.3 去库存2.4 降成本2.5 补短板3. 供给侧改革实施过程中面临的问题 333.1 去产能面临的问题3.2 去杠杆面临的问题5中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望3.3 降成本面临的问题3.4 补短板面临的问题4. “十三五”后期煤控形势分析 464.1 产业布局西移，产业集中度进一步提高4.2 产能结构优化将成为化解煤炭过剩产能的主基调4.3 正确处理控制总量和保障供应的关系4.4 去产能工作超额完成任务，煤矿数量大幅减少4.5 煤炭生产需考虑应对煤炭需求下行风险5. 煤炭行业“十三五”后期发展建议与措施 505.1 去产能相关建议与措施5.2 去杠杆相关建议与措施5.3 降成本相关建议与措施5.4 补短板相关建议与措施参考文献 61煤控研究项目6执行摘要本报告在前期煤控课题的基础上，通过数据和资料分析，总结了煤控相关指标的完成情况和 2018 年的煤控进展，对“十三五”中期煤控指标进行了评估。同时在我国供给侧结构性改革的大背景下，总结了煤炭行业供给侧结构性改革的主要措施、经典案例及其效果，为“十三五”后期煤炭行业改革发展提供了有效的经验借鉴。本报告还基于煤炭行业供给侧结构性改革及煤控现状，对“十三五”后期煤控形势进行了展望，分析了煤炭行业结构性改革实施过程中面临的问题并提出了行业后期发展的建议和措施。本报告研究显示，煤炭行业在“十三五”前半期取得了显著的成果，煤炭在一次能源产量中的占比从2015年的78.2%降低至2018年的69.7%左右，煤炭在能源消费总量中的占比从2015年的 68.1%降低至2018年的59.0%，煤炭在能源生产及消费结构中的占比逐年下降。煤炭科学产能占比从2016年的60.26%上升至了2018年的64.31%，煤炭科学产能比例及得分逐年提高，煤矿百万吨死亡率从2016年的0.152下降至了 2018 年的 0.093，安全生产事故及死亡人数逐年下降。在“十三五”后期，煤炭产量及消费量在能源结构中的占比逐渐降低，煤炭产量占比力争达到 67% 左右，煤炭消费量力争达到 55% 左右，优化能源结构，实现高质量绿色发展。在“十三五”后期，中国煤炭行业产业布局西移，产业集中度进一步提高；产能结构优化将是化解煤炭过剩产能的主基调；总量控制与保证煤炭供应并行；行业在超额完成去产能任务的同时，也存在煤炭消费量下行风险，需有长远应对战略。在煤炭行业的供给侧结构性改革中，去产能面临煤炭供应集中度高，区域性、时段性供应紧张加剧；人员安置问题压力加大；企业资产债务问题加重；产业布局与生态环境保护存在矛盾等问题。去杠杆面临着资产负债率高、债转股落地困难等问题。降成本面临着财务成本增加，企业税费负担重，运输环节涉煤收费不合理，社会成本难以转移等问题。补短板面临着不同地区转型难度差异大，现阶段科学产能水平不高等问题。对于煤炭行业在供给侧结构性改革过程中面临的问题，本报告提出了相应的建议与措施。对于去产能而言，通过实现优产能与保供应、加强人员安置的针对性、尽快制定产能退出矿井资产处置相关政策、统筹生态环境保护与资源开发利用等方式对问题加以解决。对于去杠杆而言，解决问题主要可从明确规定产能退出矿井的新增债务、尽快落实市场化债转股配套政策，提供财政补贴和税收优惠政策着手。对于降成本而言，建立现代企业制度，加强产业升级、规范行业税费体系、加强运力建设、加快分离国企办社会职能可对行业面临的降成本问题进行缓解解决。对于补短板而言，煤炭企业应该走多元化的转型升级之路，对于行业而言应该构建行业平稳运行机制，促进行业提质增效，同时加强行业的科技进步，健全科技创新体系。7中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望Executive SummaryBased on the past coal cap policy research of this project, this report summarizes the completion of coal industry coal cap targets through data statistics and document review, analyses the progress made in 2018 and provides a mid-term evaluation of progress on 13th Five-Year Plan coal cap targets. Given the background of supply-side structural reform in China, the major measures, main case studies, and the effects of supply-side structural reform in the coal industry are summarized, providing guidance for the reform and development of the coal industry in the late stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Based on the ongoing supply-side structural reform of the coal industry and on the current status of coal cap progress, it forecasts the coal cap in the late stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan, analyzes the problems faced in implementing structural reform in the coal industry, and puts forward corresponding suggestions and measures for development.This report shows that the coal industry has made remarkable results in the 13th Five-Year Plan thus far. The share of coal in the total primary energy production has decreased from 78.2% in 2015 to 69.7% in 2018. The share of coal in the total energy consumption has decreased from 68.1% in 2015 to 59.0% in 2018. The proportion of coal in the energy production and consumption structure has been declining year by year. The proportion of scientific coal production capacity increased from 60.26% in 2016 to 64.31% in 2018. The proportion and score of scientific coal production capacity increased year by year. The mortality rate per million tons of coal production decreased from 0.152 in 2016 to 0.093 in 2018. In the late stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of coal in the energy structure should be gradually reduced in the energy mix. The proportion of coal production should reach about 67%, and the proportion of coal consumption should reach about 55%. While the energy structure should be further optimized, it should continue to strive to achieve high-quality green development.In the late stage of the 13th Five-Year Plan, Chinas coal industry will face the following challenges: the layout of Chinas coal industry is moving westward and the industrial concentration needs to be further increased; the coal production capacity structure needs to be further optimized in order to resolve the overcapacity problem; capping coal production and consumption should be implemented in parallel with securing coal supply. While the industry has overfulfilled its capacity reduction targets, there are also downsides and risks to reducing coal consumption, which require a long-term strategy to address.In terms of supply-side structural reform of the coal industry, reducing production capacity is in tension with a high concentration of coal supply, and reginal and time-煤控研究项目8based supply shortage. There is also increased pressure on personnel placement, aggravated asset and debt problems for enterprises, and the tension between industrial distribution and environmental protection. Furthermore, de-leveraging is faced with the problems of high asset-liability ratio and difficulty in debt-to-equity swaps. Cost reduction is faced with the problems of increasing financial costs, heavy tax burdens on enterprises, unreasonable coal-related charges in transportation, and difficulty in transferring social costs. There are significant disparities within regions in promoting industrial transformation and in improving technical productivity.This report also puts forward corresponding suggestions and measures to address the problems faced by the coal industry in the process of structural reform. As for reducing capacity, the problems can be solved by optimizing capacity structure, ensuring reasonable supply, strengthening relevant personnel placement, formulating relevant policies for capacity withdrawal from mine assets as soon as possible, and coordinating environmental protection and resource development and utilization. For de-leveraging, the main solution is to specify the new debt for production capacity withdrawal from mines, to implement market-oriented debt-to-equity swap policies as soon as possible, and to provide financial subsidies and preferential tax policies. Establishing a modern enterprise system, strengthening industrial upgrading, standardizing the industrial tax and fee system, strengthening transportation capacity construction, and speeding up the separation of the social functions of state-owned enterprises will alleviate and solve the problem of cost reduction. In order to address weak links, coal enterprises should take diversified paths towards transformation and upgrading. For industry, it is necessary to develop a smooth operating mechanism to promote quality and efficiency, while promoting industrial scientific and technological progress and improving technological innovation.1“十三五”煤控相关 指标完成情况煤控研究项目101.1 煤控相关指标完成情况1.1.1 完成退出产能任务，产量控制效果明显（ 1）去产能指标在供给侧改革诸多政策调节下，煤炭行业共化解过剩产能任务提前完成。2016 煤炭行业化解过剩产能2.9亿吨，2017年煤炭退出产能达2.5亿吨，2018年退出煤炭落后产能 2.7 亿吨，提前两年完成“十三五”目标任务。时间任务实际2016年2.5 2.92017年1.5 2.52018年1.5 2.7总计5.5 8.1* 数据来源：国家发改委、国家安监总局（ 2）煤炭产量指标据统计，2016年全国原煤产量为34.1亿吨，同比减少9.1%；2017年全国原煤产量 35.2 亿吨，同比增长 3.2%；2018 年全国原煤产量 36.8 亿吨，同比增长 4.5%。 自煤炭行业实施去产能政策以来，全国煤炭产量控制效果明显。表1-1-1 “十三五”前半期公告去产能统计表