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Towards a Better Hong Kong: Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 1 WRI XIAOQIAN JIANG LAWRENCE IU J ROBERT GIBSON LAUREN CHAN WEE KEAN FONG ROMAN HENNING PATHWAYS TO NET ZERO CARBON EMISSIONS BY 2050 Towards a Better Hong Kong2 WRI Design and Layout by: Harry Zhang ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication is a joint effort by HK 2050 Is Now, an initiative of the World Resources Institute (WRI), Civic Exchange, the ADM Capital Foundation, HSBC, the RS Group and the WYNG Foundation. We would like to express our gratitude to colleagues who provided timely and helpful advice, support and assistance during the preparation of this publication. Special thanks go to the following individuals and organizations for providing inputs and reviewing draft versions of this document: Edward Chow, Hong Kong Productivity Council Michael Edesess, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Lisa Genasci, ADM Capital Foundation Tracy Wong Harris, Hong Kong Green Finance Association Mak Kim Kong, Electrical and Mechanical Services Department Victor Kwong, Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited (HKCG) Chiu-ying Lam, Individual Capacity Edwin Lau, Green Earth Tina Li, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Debra Tan, China Water Risk Chin-wan Tse, Environment Bureau Agnes Wong, Environmental Protection Department Jan Stempienm, Lantau Group Jeanne Ng and Jim Taylor, CLP Hong Kong Limited TC Yee, Hong Kong Electric Investments Limited (HKE) Yan Yan Yip, WYNG Foundation Fiona Lau, Berto Lee and John So, Civic Exchange Juan Carlos Altamirano, Beth Elliott, Kelly Levin, Carlos Muoz Pia, Katie Ross, Qianyu Shao (intern), Shailesh Sreedharan, Debbie Weyl, Wenyi Xi, Lulu Xue, Xiaoliang Yang, Mofan Zhang, WRI We are also grateful to Barbara Karni, Beth Elliott, Bill Dugan, Emily Matthews, Emilia Suarez, Joshua Dominick, Lawrence MacDonald, Romain Warnault, Ruiyun Dou, Rhys Gerholdt, Ye Zhang and Cheddar Media for providing editing, administrative and design support. We are pleased to acknowledge our institutional strategic partners, which provide core funding to WRI: the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. Funding from the ADM Capital Foundation, HSBC, the RS Group and the WYNG Foundation made this analysis possible. We appreciate their supportTowards a Better Hong Kong: Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 I TABLE OF CONTENTS III Foreword V Executive Summary 1 The Need for a Long-Term Deep Decarbonisation Strategy 2 Global Climate Goals and the Role of Cities 4 Hong Kongs Climate Policies 7 Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in Hong Kong 8 Emissions Profile 10 A Roadmap for Deep Decarbonisation 13 Emission-Reduction Gaps 15 Potential for Emissions Reduction 16 Environmental Benefits of Deep Decarbonisation 17 Economic Benefits of Deep Decarbonisation 18 Ensuring a Just Transition 21 Improving the Generation of Electricity 22 Summary of Policy Recommendations 25 Expand Renewable Energy on a Large Scale 27 Explore Sourcing More Nuclear Energy Regionally 28 Generate Power from Zero- or Near-Zero Carbon Hydrogen 28 Use Natural Gas with Carbon Capture and Storage 28 Store Electricity 29 Optimize the Demand Response 31 Reducing the Use of Piped Gas and Non-Transport-Related Liquified Petroleum Gas 32 Summary of Policy Recommendations 32 Replace Town Gas and Non-Transport Liquified Petroleum Gas with Zero-Carbon Electricity 33 Replace Town Gas with Zero- or Near-Zero Carbon Hydrogen 3 7 Making Buildings More Energy Efficient 38 Summary of Policy Recommendations 40 Set Targets, Track Performance/Benchmark and Improve Transparency 40 Tighten Policies and Regulations 41 Improve Energy Audits and Increase Retrofitting 42 Improve Demand Management and User Behaviour 45 Reducing Emissions from Mobility 46 Summary of Policy Recommendations 46 Avoid Journeys 49 Shift to Lower-Carbon Modes of Transport 54 Improve the Efficiency and Lower the Carbon Intensity of Mobility 59 Opportunities for More Ambitious Climate Action 60 Increasing the Reporting and Management of Carbon Emissions 60 Imposing a Carbon Price 63 Reducing Emissions from the Waste Sector 66 Reducing Emissions from International Travel 70 Reducing Emissions through Lifestyle Changes 71 Endnotes 72 Abbreviations 73 Glossary 73 ReferencesII WRITowards a Better Hong Kong: Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 III FOREWORD The central goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global temperature rise to “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5C.” The latest science shows that to achieve this goal, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030 and reach net-zero by around 2050. This transformation requires ambitious action across all levels of government and sectors of societycountries, states and provinces, cities, companies, investors and the public. Cities will play a particularly crucial role in achieving national goals and achieving net-zero emissions because they make and implement many emission-reduction policies. Around the world, urban centers such as Copenhagen, London, and New York are at the forefront of ambition climate action by committing to achieving carbon neutrality. World Resources Institute is working with a number of Chinese cities to rapidly decarbonise by mid-century while achieving higher levels of economic growth and sustainable development. Hong Kong has the opportunity to be an inspiring example for the region by adopting and implementing a strategy to reach net-zero emissions like its counterparts in Europe and the Americas. New research by World Resources Institute and Civic Exchange proves that achieving net-zero emissions in Hong Kong is within reach. It is not only technically feasible but would offer multiple wins including significant economic and environmental benefits. This study shows that by setting a net-zero emissions target and taking action now, Hong Kong will yield HK$460 billion in new wealth. These actions will also reduce local air pollution and its associated detrimental health effects, increase residents life expectancy and save about 26,000 lives by 2050. But to achieve these benefits and reach net-zero emissions at a reasonable cost, action must be taken as soon as possible. This urgency is why our project is named Hong Kong 2050 Is Now.” Our report focuses on the solutions that offer Hong Kong the greatest potential for emissions reductions: decarbonising electricity and piped gas, building energy conservation and transportation. In addition, the analysis considers waste management, international travel and lifestyles as further opportunities for significant emissions cuts. This research provides Hong Kong with a roadmap to a brighter future. Now is the time to translate this research into objectives and further translate the objectives into policy measuresand then ensure these policies are fully implemented. This is a major undertaking that requires joint effort from all stakeholders in Hong Kongthe government, private sector and the public. Together we can achieve a better Hong Kong: a city that is prosperous, healthy and fully decarbonised. Li Fang Chief Representative, Beijing Representative Office, WRI China Lisa Genasci Board Member, Civic ExchangeIV WRITowards a Better Hong Kong: Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS To keep the Earths average temperature within 1.5 o C of warming above pre- industrial levels, the world must be close to carbon neutral by 2050. Hong Kong, like other regions, must develop a concrete plan that can transform the city into a net zero emissions economy and society. The analysis presented in this report demonstrates that Hong Kong can reduce its carbon emissions by 90 per cent by 2050 relative to 2005 levels and offset the remaining 10 per cent which comes from hard-to-abate sectors. To progress towards a net zero emissions future, Hong Kong must begin planning and taking accelerated action now. It needs to adopt a significantly more aggressive decarbonisation target, with annual reductions of 6.6 per cent beginning immediately and continuing through 2050. The greatest potential for reducing emissions comes from improving electricity generation, making buildings more energy efficient and increasing the sustainability of mobility. A net zero emissions economy and society would provide Hong Kong with a cleaner, greener and healthier environment and yield substantial economic and social benefits. Projected reductions in air pollutants would increase life expectancy to the equivalent of about 26,000 lives saved by 2050, and cumulative economic benefits could amount to HK$460 billion.VI WRI Introduction In order to achieve the 1.5C goal set by the Paris Agreement on climate change, human civilisation must achieve net zero emissions by around 2050. The special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on global warming of 1.5C, released in October 2018, concludes that human activities have caused global temperatures to rise by about 1C above pre-industrial levels. Even a significant reduction in emissions by 2030 would not be enough to ensure that temperature increases are kept below 1.5C by the end of this century. Rapid and large-scale transformation in energy consumption, land use and urban infrastructure, including transportation, construction and industry, is required, leading to a decline in global net anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions of 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 and net zero emissions around 2050. Achieving this target will mean decarbonising most emissions while offsetting emissions where decarbonisation is especially difficult. The change will require careful planning, new technology and buy-in with respect to the costs and behavioural change that will need to be embraced. Adjustment time for business and people will also be necessary. Hong Kong is developing its own long-term decarbonisation strategy. The government kicked off a public engagement program in June 2019 to collect public views; it is expected to announce the results later this year. It will subsequently formulate a long-term decarbonisation strategy. This report analyses the feasibility of Hong Kongs reaching a net zero emission target in 2050 and provide inputs for the formulation of Hong Kongs long-term decarbonisation strategy. About This Report This study highlights where action is needed through 2050 and provides context for landmark decisions that must be made under current policy plans until 2030. This project involved a detailed modelling exercise that incorporated scientific, technical and economic perspectives. The model evaluated the medium- and long-term impacts on CO 2 e emissions in Hong Kong of key policies for the power, building and mobility sectors and devised additional policy recommendations to strengthen the pathway towards net zero emissions. The study was conducted in 2019, before the outbreak of COVID-19. The pandemic will not significantly affect theTowards a Better Hong Kong: Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050 VII Figure ES-1 | Projected greenhouse gas emissions in Hong Kong under the Current Policy Scenario and the Decarbonisation Scenario, 201750 overall trends, especially mid- and long- term decarbonisation, or the studys recommendations. The impacts of the pandemic on the projections in this study will likely be greatest for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This study takes 2017 as the base year and uses a GDP growth of 3.5 per cent for 201821, based on projections from the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau. Annual GDP growth was 2.9 per cent in 2018, 1.2 per cent in 2019 and 8.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2020. The forecast for 2020 as a whole has been revised downwards to between 4 per cent and 7 per cent, as announced by the Financial Secretary on April 29. The model may have overestimated energy consumption and emissions for 201820. The changes in fossil fuel prices associated with the COVID-19 outbreak may also alter cost-benefit estimations. Investment plans may be delayed because of the increased strain on the citys budget, for example; conversely, a green stimulus, if it were provided, could spur investment. However, most of the impact would be in 2020 and 2021; overall trends are unlikely to be significantly affected. Follow-up studies and an update of the model will address the effects of COVID-19. This report focuses on Hong Kongs direct emissions (Scope 1) that are emitted from Hong Kong Special Administration Region territory. In the last section of the report we also consider Scope 2 emissions relating to imports of energy into Hong Kong and Scope 3 emissions relating to the embodied carbon in goods traded with other territories. Conclusions Hong Kong has high potential to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. In 2017, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions amounted to 37.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e), excluding waste, agriculture and forestry, corresponding to per capita emissions of 5.2 tonnes (t). Under the Current Policy Scenario, emissions will be reduced to 22 MtCO 2 e by 2050, or 2.8 tCO 2 e per capita. Under the proposed Decarbonisation Scenariowhich includes additional electricity from renewable energies, energy-efficiency improvements, a shift to lower-emission vehicles and other supportive policiesHong Kongs emissions can be reduced to 3.9 MtCO 2 e in 2050, or 0.5 tCO 2 e per capita (Figure ES-1). Note: Significant drops in 202425 and 203031 reflect the retirement of coal-fired power plants. Emissions include energy and industrial processes; waste and land use change and forestry are excluded. Source: Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) (hongkong.energypolicy.solutions/). Million tonnes of CO2e 0 25 20 30 35 5 15 10 40 Current Policy Scenario 2017 Total: 37 .9 million tonnes Per capita: 5.2 tonnes 2050 Current Policy Scenario Total: 22 million tonnes Per capita: 2.8 tonnes 2050 Decarbonisation Scenario Total: 3.9 million tonnes Per capita: 0.5 tonnes Decarbonisation Scenario 2020 2017 2035 2040 2025 2030 2045 2050VIII WRI Hard-to-decarbonise sectorsmainly remaining gas-fired electricity generation after the introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and industry account for a very small share of Hong Kongs economy. Therefore, it is appropriate for Hong Kong to target net zero carbon emissions by 2050 as its contribution to the Paris Agreement, which China signed. Hong Kong has a role to play under Chinas commitments. It needs to develop a clear and concise strategy, with a roadmap for achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Every day of delay makes the necessary cuts steeper and more difficult. Ambitious emissions-reduction trajectories will be necessary to make net zero emissions a reality. Hong Kong targets GHG emi
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