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CBRE RESEARCH2018 ASIA PACIFICREAL ESTATE MARKETOUTLOOK2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK3CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.06ECONOMYCONTENTS15RETAIL09OFFICE04EXECUTIVE SUMARY26CAPITAL MARKETS21LOGISTICS32DATA TABLE2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK4CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.ECONOMYThe global outlook for 2018 is upbeat although Asia Pacific is set to feel the impact of the China slowdown. Business sentiment will remain positive but employment growth will continue to be constrained by the labour shortage. Low inflation has reduced pressure for major interest rate hikes and exchange rate volatility is expected to subside. Geopolitical tension on the Korean peninsula; quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes in the U.S.; and the possibility of a faster downturn in China top the list of major risks.OFFICEOffice leasing demand wil remain stable in 2018, with activity expected to be driven by tech and domestic financial firms. Asian corporates wil dominate as new industries and sources of demand continue to emerge. Oversuply presure wil persist, led by China and India. Regional rental growth is forecast to slow but Singapore and selected Australian markets are set to outperform. The workplace will take on greater importance as the war for talent intensifies. Ocupiers desire for greater agility will result in the adoption of a mix of traditional, core and flexible solutions.RETAILRetail sales are forecast to remain solid and e-comerce growth will continue. Rental growth is expected to remain stable, driven by the improved performance of high quality properties. More retailers will adopt an omni-chanel strategy and make greater use of technology in their stores and to inform business decisions. The role of bricks-and-mortar shops will change and more use wil be made of alternative formats such as pop-ups. Among landlords there will be a stronger focus on retailtainment and securing high-impact tenants capable of increasing fotfal and generating publicity.EXECUTIVE SUMARYMODERATE GROWTH IN A FAST CHANGING WORLDECONOMY4.5%GDP GrowthOFFICE2.1%Rental GrowthRETAIL0.3%Rental GrowthFigure 1: Forecasted Asia Pacific Growth in 2018Source: CBRE Research, January 2018.2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK5CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.LOGISTICSThe continued expansion of the e-comerce industry will drive solid demand for logistics space this year. Growing consumer demand for shorter delivery times is expected to create stronger requirements for urban logistics space. Rental growth is set to increase as supply pressure remains modest. Landlords will need to enhance their portfolios to prepare for the adoption of automated storage and retrieval systems and logistics robots.CAPITAL MARKETSInvestment demand wil remain robust although transaction volume is likely to decline folowing the completion of numerous major deals in 2017. Purchasing activity will be led by funds and institutional investors. With the era of riding on yield compresion to achieve capital returns approaching an end, income growth will become the major driver of capital value appreciation. Investors are advised to identify markets in the upward rental cycle or assets with potential rental reversion. There will be a stronger focus on asset management as a means by which to increase rental income. It will therefore be esential for landlords and investors to understand curent ocupier trends.EXECUTIVE SUMARYLOGISTICS1.7%Rental GrowthCAPITAL MARKETS1.8%All Sector Capital Value GrowthBusiness sentiment will remain positive, supported by the upbeat global economy.Source: CBRE Research, January 2018.ECONOMY2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 7CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.Better-than-expected economic growth in 2017 points to a positive year ahead, despite the slight slowdown in China. While the posibility of future interest rate hikes remains a key concern, CBRE Research believes upward pressure is minimal. GLOBAL OUTLOOK BRIGHTENS; REGION TO FEEL IMPACT OF CHINA SLOWDOWNThe global economy surprised on the upside in 2017, recording 2.9% GDP growth for the year. Growth is forecast to acelerate to 3.2% in 2018. The Eurozones fastest growth for a decade and stronger momentum in the U.S. wil suport global demand and buoy Asian exports in the coming year, while lower oil prices are set to boost consumer spending power. However, slower growth in China, where GDP growth is forecast to decline from 6.8% in 2017 to 6.2% in 2018, wil ensure Asia Pacific GDP growth weakens slightly to 4.5%, compared to the 4.7% recorded in 2017.EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO BE CONSTRAINED BY LABOUR SHORTAGEPwCs latest Asia Pacific CEO survey found that 37% of CEOs in the region are confident about revenue growth in 2018, up from 28% in 2017. However, employment growth in many markets is expected to be constrained by the shortage of labour. This issue is particularly acute in Japan, where the unemployment rate stood at 2.7% in November 2017, creating strong upward pressure for wage growth.SOLID BUT SLOWER GROWTHECONOMY2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK8CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.ForecastINFLATION REMAINS SUBDUED; MONETARY POLICY SET TO TIGHTENWeak inflation of 2% or below in most markets will limit pressure for major interest rate hikes in 2018. CBRE Research expects most Asia Pacific markets to implement one or two interest rate hikes this year, with the exception of China, Japan and Australia, where rates are likely to remain flat. While the U.S. and China will see new central bank chairs apointed in 2018, monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged. Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) governor Zhou Xiaochuan will retire in March, with his successor continuing to pursue deleveraging reforms. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Haruhuki Kuroda may be apointed to a second term, in which case the countrys zero rate policy wil be maintained.NORTH KOREA, CHINA DOWNTURN AND INTEREST RATE HIKES TOP KEY RISKSThe risk of a more severe downturn in the Chinese economy persists, although deleveraging will be carefully implemented to ensure growth is relatively undisrupted. While there is a chance that the U.S. may increase interest rates at a faster-than-expected pace, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Jay Powell has stated that he expects to retain the existing policy of gradual rate hikes. Any impact on Asia Pacific is therefore expected to be mild and long-term interest rates are set to remain low.Proposed tax reforms in the U.S. reducing the corporate tax rate to 21% could negatively impact demand from U.S. companies in Asia Pacific. However, the impact will be minimal given the continued growth in demand from Asian corporates. Other key risks include the volatile growth of cryptocurencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. While virtual asets does not pose a direct threat to the real estate market, there is increasing concern that the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency price movements could triger a new financial crisis.Co-working space operators have enjoyed rapid growth in recent years. However, the quality and sustainability of providers in this sector varies widely, and many have yet to record a profit. CBRE Research expects the co-working sector to experience some consolidation in 2018, which is likely to result in the failure of numerous operators.03691215200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Real GDP Growth (%)Asia PacificChina IndiaECONOMYLIMITED PRESURE FOR INTEREST RATE HIKESSource: CBRE Research, January 2018.Figure 2: Forecasted Real GDP Growth Geopolitical tension centred on North Korea will continue to pose a threat to regional safety and prompt a certain degree of caution among selected investors considering purchasing assets in South Korea. While there were signs of improved relations between the South and North in early 2018, this issue will remain on investors radar.OFFICE2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 10CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.The coming year will se more occupiers reconfiguring their ofice portfolios to include a mix of core premises (owned or leased) and flexible space (co-working or shared space) as they seek to improve their readiness to respond to rapidly changing busines conditions. As the war for talent intensifies, the workplace wil take on a more prominent role. DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT; FINANCE AND TECH SET TO DRIVE ACTIVITYOffice leasing demand wil remain stable in 2018, with net absorption forecast to be flat or slightly down on 2017.Demand will be suported by robust leasing activity in India and the upgrading of premises in Japan as new suply comes on stream. Demand in China is expected to decline due to a combination of factors including many companies having completed upgrading moves in 2017; slower expansion by third-party space providers; and the effect of deleveraging on corporate investment. Among sectors, the financial and tech industries will retain their position as the major drivers of office leasing demand. Within the financial sector, Asian institutions are expected to acount for the bulk of demand, while wealth management firms are set to emerge as an expanding source of leasing activity in Hong Kong. Tech companies will continue to grow rapidly but leasing demand will be negatively impacted by large Asian firms preference of constructing their own headquarters buildings. Other key demand drivers wil include co-working operators, although demand from this sector comprises only a smal portion of the overal market, acountingOCCUPIERS TO FOCUS ON FUTURE-PROFING PORTFOLIOSOFFICE2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK11CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.OFFICENEW SUPPLY DOMINATED BY INDIA AND CHINAfor 5% of total leasing volume in 2017. Although co-working operators are still expanding at a rate of more than 20% per year, the sector is expected to se some consolidation that may push some smaler operators out of busines.Weaker demand is expected from BPO providers, primarily in India and the Philippines, as a result of protectionist U.S. policies and tax reforms, along with the automation of low value-added business processes.CBRE Research foresees that across all sectors, the strong focus on portfolio optimisation wil continue to keep a tight rein on new space requirements.SUPLY PRESSURE TO INCREASE; CHINA AND INDIA LEAD NEW COMPLETIONSNew Grade A office supply is forecast to rise to an historical high of over 60 million sq. ft. NFA in 2018, 26% higher than the total for 2017. India and China will account for 71% of total new Grade A office suply in 2018. Most new projects are located outside CBDs, meaning that availability in core locations will remain limited and prime rents will be unaffected. However, new suply in decentralised locations, along with related infrastructure and lower ocupancy costs, could encourage more occupiers to relocate from expensive core areas.New supply in mature markets represents less than 5% of their respective total stock. The suply shortage wil be at its most severe in the Sydney CBD, where the demolition of office buildings for residential development is set to further intensify relocation demand. Tokyo is the only major developed market expecting significant new suply in 2018, with new Grade A stock due for completion this year more than double the 10-year average. However, the pre-comitment rate for new Grade A projects is already estimated to have reached 70% amid solid demand from medium to large sized occupiers.Figure 3: Asia Pacific Grade A office new suply and net absorption (2013 -2018F)Source: CBRE Research, January 2018. 01020304050607020132014201520162017E2018FMillion sq. ft. NFAOffice new supplyOffice net absorptionSource: CBRE Research, January 2018. Figure 4: 2018 new suply as a % of total Grade A stock-5%0%5%10%15%20%Shenzhen Shanghai Tokyo Beijing Delhi NCRHCMC Bangalore Mumbai BangkokSingapore Guangzhou Taipei Kuala Lumpur Seoul Perth Melbourne Hong Kong Auckland HanoiBrisbane Sydney2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK12CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.OFFICESINGAPORE TO LEAD RENTAL GROWTHRENTAL GROWTH TO SLOW; SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA OUTPERFORMGrade A CBD rental growth wil remain limited across Asia Pacific in 2018, with the 15 major markets tracked by CBRE Research expecting to record anual growth of around 2%. Growth wil be led by Singapore, which remains the only market in the region displaying clear signs of faster growth. Limited new Grade A suply until 2021 will enable existing Grade A stock to be absorbed by flight-to-quality demand. Australian markets are also expected to remain positive, with Sydney and Melbourne registering further gains while Brisbane and Perth bottom-out. However, Sydney is now in the late upward cycle, with efective Grade A rents having risen by 45% over the past two years. In addition, the recovery in Brisbane is unlikely to be significant.Other upbeat markets wil include India, where rental growth in relatively smaller markets including the likes of Hyderabad and Pune wil remain strong. Rental growth in Bangalore will be solid as occupiers remain willing to pay a premium for locations with good infrastructure. Rents in the Delhi NCR and Mumbai are projected to stay flat. In China, oversuply is likely to result in a rental decline in Shanghai and Shenzhen and limited growth in Beijing. Rental growth in Guangzhou is expected to be confined to the CBD, where new suply is minimal. In Hong Kong, rents are projected to increase in Central but will weaken in decentralised areas where new suply is concentrated. Oversuplied markets including Tokyo and Shenzhen will see the onset of the rental downward cycle in 2018.Figure 5: Asia Pacific Grade A Office Rental Outlok Remarks: Office rental growth refers to Grade A ofices in CBD areas only, unles specified.Source: CBRE Research, January 2018. -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%SingaporeSydneyGuangzhouBangalore ORRMelbourneBangkokBangaloreHong KongMumbai BKCGurgaonHo Chi Minh CityHanoiTaipeiSeoulNew DelhiMumbaiKuala LumpurAucklandBeijingShanghaiShenzhenTokyoBrisbanePerth2017E2018F2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK13CBRE RESEARCH 2018CBRE, Inc.OFFICESTRONGER EMPHASIS ON USER EXPERIENCEASIAN CORPORATIONS SET TO DRIVE LEASING DEMANDWhile large space users in Asia Pacific have traditionally been multinationals, recent years have seen Asian corporations rise to prominence, a trend that is set to continue in 2018. Asian companies comprised 40% of the Fortune Global 500 in 2017, compared to just 23% in 201, and their numbers now eclipse those of American and European firms.Asia is also home to a growing number of unicorn start-up companies (defined as those valued at over US$1 billion), accounting for more than 30% of CB Insights top 100 in 2017. While such firms have expanded rapidly and comprise a steady source of office leasing demand, newer companies are often funded by venture capital and not by solid revenue gr
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