资源描述
FOLOWUSCONTACT US A CEIC Insights Report China Economy in a Snapshot Q3 2019 2 Executive Sumary Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 3 Economic Outlok RealGDPgrowthrateinQ22019was6.2%y/y,theweakestinatleast27years,suggestingthe economyistransitioningtoslowergrowthdrivenbyweakerdomesticdemandandexternal headwinds.Consumptionlookedrelativelyrobust,supportedbyataxcutandafairlymoderate monetarypolicy.ThegrowthofgroscapitalformationwasfasterinQ2thaninQ1,buoyedby activefiscalspendingoninfrastructure.Theexternalsectorwasingoodcondition.Thecurrent acountsurplusincreasedfurther,reaching1.64%ofGDPinQ2.Currently,therequiredreserve ration(RRR)issetat11%andthereseemstoberoomforfurthercuts.Pricesignalsweremixed- theheadlineCPIinflationwas2.63%,up0.8ppcomparedtoQ1.PPIwas5%against0.2%inQ1. Realestateinvestmentgrewby10.4%y/yinQ22019,slightlylowerthanthe11.8%y/yinQ1. InvestmentinresidentialbuildinggeneratedmostofthegrowthinrealestateinvestmentinQ2. However,monthlydatasuggeststhatresidentialbuildinginvestmentgrowthhasalreadystarted tolosemomentum. Recently,thePolitburo,thetopdecision-makingbodyoftherulingComunistParty,pointedout thatthedownwardpresureonthedomesticeconomyhadincreased.AccordingtothePolitburo guidelines,astablemonetarypolicywithampleliquidityconditionswouldbeimplemented. Moreover,amoreactivefiscalpolicyinvolvingadditionalpersonalincometaxcuts,anincreaseof VATrefundonexports,andmoreinfrastructureprojectsfinancedbythegovernmentsspecial purposebondswouldalsobeimplementedinthecomingquarters. Key Highlights EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 ThesmoothedCEICleadingindicatorremainedonasteadydownwardtrendinQ22019, sugestinglowergrowthrateatleastforaquarterahead.Theindicatorsreadingwas93.71in April.DuetotheshockfromtheUS-Chinatradetensions,itdecreasedsignificantlyto90.63inMay butmanagedtogainalitlegroundto90.87inJune.ManufacturingPMIpointedtoacontinuing weaknesinthesector,asinMayitfelagainbelowthethresholdof50to49.4.Theindexhasbeen hoveringabovethe50valuethresholdinMarchandApril.ServicesPMIremainedabovethethreshold ataround54inQ2.Businesconfidencelookspesimistic,butconsumerconfidenceseemstobe sanguine.Specificaly,businesconfidencedeclinedby4.2%y/y,whileconsumerconfidenceindex readingsincreasedby7.7%y/yinQ2. A CEIC Insights Report 4 Chinaseconomicgrowthisexpectedtoslowdowninanorderlyway,withrelativelymoderate andprudentmonetarypolicy,activefiscalpolicyandefficientstructuralreform.Giventheweak externaldemand,exportsareexpectedtoremainsluggish,exertinganegativeimpactonindustrial productionandemployment.However,domesticconsumptionislikelytoberesilient.Theongoing structuralreformofthesocialsecuritysystemandthefretradeofrurallandareexpectedtonarow theurban-ruralwealthgapandprovideaboosttoruralconsumption.Iftheongoingstructural reformsinthefinancialmarketprovetobeefficient,businesconfidencewouldimprove.Themore activefiscalexpendituresoninfrastructuremightplayadecisiveroleinfixedassetinvestment(FAI). TheIMFandtheFocusEconomicsconsensusforecastisfor6.2%y/yrealGDPgrowthin2019, downfrom6.6%y/yin2018,whiletheUnitedNationsESCAPforecastsa6.3%y/ygrowthratein 2019.TheIMFforecastindicatesthefiscaldeficitwouldbe6.12%ofGDPin2019,thelargest forecastdeficitsince1995.TheIMFforecastshowsthecurentaccountbalanceisvergingtoa morestablelevel,at0.3%ofGDP.Thedownwardriskstotheoutlokstemfromtheslowingglobal growthandthetradeprotectionismmovesoftheUS. CEIC Leading Indicator Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 5 Purchasing Managers Index: China EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: CEIC Data Real GDP Growth Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Source: CEIC Data Source: CEIC Data A CEIC Insights Report 6 ForChina,thetradewarwiththeUSisoneofthecriticalfactorsaffectingeconomicactivity.InQ1 2019,thetensionhadbeensubdued,andtheeconomygrewby6.4%y/y.Thegrowthoutlokreacted immediatelytothecomebackoftradetensionsanddeterioratedinMay.InQ22019,realGDPgrowth hit6.2%y/y,thelowestinrecentyear.Thechosenottoresorttotheriskymoveofstimulatingthe realestatemarketandintroducedmorestructuralreformstostabilizebusinesconfidenceinthereal sectorinstead.Inanutshel,Beijingseemstobemoretoleranttoslowergrowthinanorderlyway withrelativelymoderateandprudentmonetarypolicy,activefiscalpolicyandefficientstructural reform. RealGDPgrowthdroppedto6.2%y/yinQ22019,themostsluggishgrowthrateinatleast27years. Theindustrialproductionindex(IPI)roseby5.6%y/yinQ22019,deceleratingfrom8.5%inQ1. Theheadlineconsumerpriceindex(CPI)inflationremainedslightlybelowthePeoplesBankof China(PBoC)s3%target.Duetothehigherfoodprice,theheadlineCPIinflationwas2.63%in2019 Q2,upby0.8ppcomparedto1.83%inQ1. ThetradesurpluswidenedtoUSD106.47bn(RMB742bn)inQ2,a12.3%y/yincrease,withimports decliningby3.9%y/yandexportsdroppingataslowerpaceof1.5%y/y. Sumary Quarterly Busines Confidence in Manufacturing (y/y%) EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: CEIC Data Monthly Busines Confidence in Manufacturing(y/y%) Source: CEIC Data A CEIC Insights Report 7 China Economy: Statistics at a Glance Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Unit 08.01.201907.01.201906.01.201905.01.201904.01.201903.01.201902.01.2019 Real GDP: YoY % 6,2 6,4 Industrial Production Index: YoY % 4,4 4,8 6,3 5,0 5,4 8,5 PMI: Manufacturing % 49,5 49,7 49,4 49,4 50,1 50,5 49,2 PMI: Services % 53,8 53,7 54,2 54,3 54,3 54,8 54,3 Consumer Price Index: YoY % 2,8 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,5 2,3 1,5 Producer Price Index: YoY % -0,8 -0,3 0,0 0,6 0,9 0,4 0,1 Electricity Generation GWh 668 240657 310583 390558 900544 020569 790 Total Imports: YoY: sa % -2,2 -9,3 -2,4 -4,9 -4,3 -3,8 6,5 Total Exports: YoY: sa % -0,4 0,7 2,6 3,4 -8,3 16,9 1,5 Unemployment Rate: Registered % 3,6 3,7 Unemployment Rate: Urban Survey % 5,2 5,3 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,2 5,3 Retail Sales: YoY % 7,5 7,6 9,8 8,6 7,2 8,7 Consumer Confidence: YoY % Point 4,7 7,7 0,5 2,4 1,8 2,0 Real Estate Investment: YTD: YoY %CHANGE(Over Year) % 10,5 10,6 10,9 11,2 11,9 11,8 11,6 Fixed Asets Investment: YTD: YoY % 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,6 6,1 6,3 6,1 Foreign Direct Investment USD mn 32 700 47 589 Curent Account Balance USD mn 57 000 49 014 M2: YoY % 8,2 8,1 8,5 8,5 8,5 8,6 8,0 Policy Rate % pa 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,3 Interbank Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years % pa 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,2 Non Performing Loans Ratio % 1,8 1,8 A CEIC Insights Report 8 IMF and UNESCAP Forecast Real GDP Growth y/y% IMF Forecast: General Government Structural Balance: % of GDP: EMDE: Emerging and Developing Asia: China Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 IMF Forecast: BPM6: Current Acount: % of GDP: EMDE: Emerging and Developing Asia: China 9 Real Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Real Sector 10 TheChineseeconomyfacedexternalheadwindsandweakerbusinesconfidenceinQ22019.RealGDP growthsloweddownto6.2%y/y,drivenbypolicyshiftingfromhigh-spedtohigh-qualitygrowthand agrowinglyuncertainexternalenvironment. FinalconsumptionscontributiontorealGDPgrowthslowedto3.4%y/yinQ22019from4.2%y/yin Q1,indicatingshrinkingdomesticconsumption.GroscapitalformationscontributiontorealGDP growthexpandedto1.6%y/ycomparedto0.8%y/yinQ1,supportedbymoregovernmentspendingon infrastructure. ThetradeconflictwiththeUSescalatedsinceitsstartinspring2018,andtheoutlokfortheglobal economyin2019isweakerthanin2018oroundsoftheUStarifsandcounter-tarifswere implementedbeforenegotiationsbeganattheendof2018.However,thenegotiationsfelthroughin themiddleofQ22019andtrigeredanotherroundoftarifincreases.AttheendofJunepresidentsXi andTrumpagredtorestartthetalks.Theturbulenttradingenvironmenthadanegativeimpacton netexports,whichcontributed1.2%y/ytorealGDPgrowthinQ1,slipingfrom1.5%y/yinQ1. NominalGDPgrowthinQ22019acceleratedto8.3%y/yfrom7.84%y/yinQ1,drivenbyslightlyrising producerpricesandsignificantlyclimbingfoodprices.Mining,primaryindustry,andmostofthe subsectorsinthetertiaryindustryexperiencedhighernominalgrowththaninQ1.However,the manufacturingandconstructionsectorsnominalgrowthdeceleratedcomparedtoQ1. BasedonthePurchasingManagerIndex(PMI),businesactivitiesweremixedinQ22019.PMI indicatedthatthenon-manufacturingsectorcontinuedtoexpand,whilethemanufacturingsector experiencedacontraction.TheunderlyingsegmentsofPMIindicatorstelanidenticalstory.New orders,materialinventoryandemploymentallplungeddeeperintonegativeteritorycomparedtoQ1. Industrialproductionsrealgrowthratedeclinedfrom8.5%y/yinQ1to5.6%y/yinQ2. Nominalretailsalesgrowthrecoveredto8.4%inJune2019.Basedononlineretailsalesdataand surveydataonlarge-sizeenterprises,theretailsalesgrowthacceleratedmodestly.Byproduct,retail automobilesalesbouncedbackfromnegativeteritoryinMayandJune2019asauthoritiesupgraded theemisionstandardfromVtoVI.ThisupgradesetaJune30deadline,afterwhichonlyvehicles meetingtheneweststandardscanbesold.AccordingtoaReutersreport,retailersresortedtobig discountsforstage-Vcars.Therecoveryofvehicleretailmightbetransitorybecausethedemand trigeredbytheemisionstandardupgradeschemewasunsustainable.Otherconsumergoodsretail salessawamarginalincreaseof1.3%y/y. Thenominaldisposableincomegrowthwas8.9%y/y,a0.17ppincreasecomparedtoQ1.The consumptionexpendituregrowthratewas7.8%y/y,a0.46pprisecomparedtoQ1.Thegapbetwen incomeandexpenditurenarowedslightlyfrom1.4%inQ1to1.1%inQ2,castingashadowon consumerexpectations. REAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 11 CEIC Data REAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Real GDP Growth and Nominal GDP InQ22019,theconsumerconfidenceindexstodat125.9points,upby1.8pointsfrom124.1inQ1.The monthlyindexsuggestedthatconfidencebouncedbackinJune,inspiteoftherisingtensionbetwen ChinaandtheUS,whicherodedconsumerconfidenceinMay. FAIgrowthratestayedaround6%y/yinQ22029.Thegrowthratewasinlinewiththelong-term downwardtrendsince2009.PrivateFAIgrowthratewasabout5.3%y/y,lowerthanthestateFAI growthrateof7.3%y/y,sincethetradetensionsbetwenChinaandtheUSandthestagnating reformsinstate-ownedenterprisescloudedbusinesconfidenceinprivateinvestment.Themonthly datashowedapronounceddropinMay,followingthestrongtradeheadwinds. TherealestateinvestmentsgrowthratesinApril,MayandJunewere11.9%,11.2%and10.9%, respectively.Theoptimisticoutlokinrealestateinvestmentcouldbeexplainedbythelower inventoryandtheexpectationsforanotherrunofhousingsectorincentivesbytheauthorities. However,duringitsmeetingonJuly2019,thePolitburoconfirmedthatChinawouldnotuse investmentsinrealestateandstimulatehouseholdstobuyresidentialpropertyasashort-term remedytosupporteconomicgrowth.UndertheguidelinesisuedduringtheJulymeeting,realestate investmentsgrowthratemightdecelerate,andpropertypricesmighthitaplateauinthenext quarter. Source: A CEIC Insights Report 12 Industrys Nominal Growth Rate Contribution to Real GDP Growth (based on GDP by expenditure) REAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 13 Value AddedsGrowth Rate in Manufacturing by Sector, % CEIC Data REAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 08.01.201907.01.201906.01.201905.01.201904.01.201903.01.2019 Food and Beverage 0,0 1,5 2,5 4,4 3,4 5,7 Pharmaceutical 8,3 7,4 5,9 5,6 9,1 6,9 Non Ferous Metal Smelting furthermore,thePolitburoreafirmedthatmonetary policywouldremainprudentinordertopreserveampleliquidityconditions. Also,thePolitburosstatementsuggestedthatPBoCpaidmoreattentiontothefinancialsectors structuralreformratherthantoaneasingmonetarypolicy. IntermsoftheChina-UStradefrictions,thegovernmentwouldtakestepstocopewithtradefrictions andworktostabilizeemployment,thefinancialsector,investmentandmarketexpectations. Currently,theRRRissetat11%.Tobemorespecific,large,mediumandsmaldepositoryinstitutions RRRsaresetat13.5%,11.5%and8%,respectively.Themedium-termlendingfacility(MLF)one-year ratehoversaround3.3%. MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 22 IntheInterestRateCoridor,animportantinterestrateisDR007,namelytheseven-dayreporatein theinter-bankmarket.DR007isessentialbecauseitinvolvesenormoustradingvolumesandcan affectallmarketinterestrates.DR007isrunningat2.66%inQ22019,higherthanthe2.69%inQ1. TheM0monetarybasegrewby4.4%y/yinJune.M1andM2increasedby4.4%and8.5%,respectively. BecauseoftheturmoilcausedbytheChina-UStradefrictions,theexchangerateoftheChineseyuan wasrathervolatile.AccordingtotheChinaForeignExchangeTradeSystem(CFETS)sCurrencyBasket, theRMBexchangerateindexdeclinedfrom95.04to92.89.TheCentralParityRateoftheUSD/RMB depreciatedby2.08%from6.73inQ1to6.87inQ22019. TheescalationofthetradetensionbetwenChinaandtheUSaffectedthestockmarketaswel,and theShanghaiStockExchangeIndexplummetedby10.8%inMay.Besides,theCSI300Index,a capitalisation-weightedstockmarketindextrackingtheperformanceofthetop300stockstradedin theShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges,onlyincreasedby2.6%inMay,comparedtogrowth ratesof17.3%inApriland15.6%inJune.Furthermore,thetreasurybondyielddroppedinQ2dueto simeringtradetensionanduncertainty. Headline & Core Inflation China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 23 CPI: Main Categories (y/y %) PPI: Main Categories (YOY Growth) CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Producer Price Index 08.01.201907.01.201906.01.201905.01.201904.01.201903.01.201902.01.2019 Food, Tobaco, Liquor 7,3 6,7 6,1 5,8 4,7 3,5 1,2 Clothing 1,6 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,8 2,0 2,0 Household Facility, Article, Service 0,7 0,8 0,8 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 Healthcare, Medical Service 2,3 2,6 2,5 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 Transportation and Communication -2,3 -2,1 -1,9 -0,9 -0,5 0,1 -1,2 Education Culture, Entertainment 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,4 Residence 1,0 1,5 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,1 2,2 Miscelaneous Gods, Service 4,7 3,4 2,7 2,1 1,9 1,9 2,0 08.01.201907.01.201906.01.201905.01.201904.01.201903.01.201902.01.2019 Fuel and Power -3,2 -2,1 -0,2 1,4 1,6 0,7 -0,5 Ferous Metal Material 3,8 5,7 4,3 3,9 3,1 1,6 1,6 Non Ferous Metal and Electric Wire -2,3 -2,5 -3,5 -2,5 -1,6 -1,7 -2,9 Chemical Material -6,8 -5,4 -4,7 -3,5 -2,8 -2,4 -2,3 Timber and Paper Pulp -4,5 -3,7 -3,0 -2,5 -1,3 -0,4 0,4 Building Material 3,8 3,9 4,3 4,4 5,1 5,2 5,5 Industrial Raw Material and Semi Finished Product -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,3 Farm and Sideline Product 2,9 2,4 1,9 1,5 1,1 0,4 -0,7 Textile Material -1,6 -0,8 -0,1 0,7 1,1 1,2 1,5 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 24 Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) Rate: Monthly Old LPR and Short-term Lending Rate Reserve Requirement RatioUnemployment Rate CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 25 Reverse Repo Rate % of Executed Lending Rate Relative to Benchmark Rate CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR China Economy in a Snapshot, Q3 20
展开阅读全文