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Smart Buildings and Carbon Neutrality: A Race Against Time How greener buildings help tackle climate change White paper In association with 2 SmartCitiesWorld Trend Reports examine an emerging or growing trend in smart cities, highlighting progress so far and future potential, as well as spotlighting case studies from cities around the world. In this report, we examine the potential for policy interventions and innovative technologies to mitigate building emissions, support carbon neutrality measures and facilitate green initiatives. Written by Jon Glasco Freelance contributor, SmartCitiesWorld Making buildings smarter and greener Our modern world depends on buildings and increasingly on smart buildings. However, the worlds millions of buildings are among the main contributors to harmful emissions and climate change. Construction and operation of buildings “account for 36 per cent of global energy use and 39 per cent of energy and process-related carbon dioxide emissions,” according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). In Europe, buildings consume more energy and emit more carbon dioxide than any other economic sector. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that to “keep the global temperature rise to 1.5C compared to pre-industrial times and limit the negative impacts of climate change, the world needs to rapidly cut its emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases (GHG) to achieve net- zero emissions of CO 2 by 2050”. The transition to climate neutrality depends on smart buildings getting even smarter. The built environment must change. The process for designing and constructing new buildings must change. And existing buildings must be renovated at a much faster rate in this race against time. In this trend report, we describe the potential for policy interventions and innovative technologies to mitigate building emissions, support carbon neutrality measures and facilitate green initiatives. 3 Cutting global emissions demands bold actions Based on a collaborative university study, global energy demand increased by 2.3 per cent in 2018 (the highest increase since 2010), and CO 2 emissions from the energy sector reached a new record. This research indicates global warming when compared to pre-industrial levels is approaching 1.5C, most likely before mid-century, and will have a severe impact. According to figures from the World Research Institute (WRI), the European Union countries and nine others generate more than 68 per cent of global GHG emissions (China is responsible for 26 per cent of total emissions and the United States 13 per cent). The EU known for its ambitious climate goals and legislation reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 23 per cent between 1990 and 2018. Through its climate and energy framework for 2030, the EU plans to accomplish further emission reductions and has the target of reducing GHG emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. Despite its ambitions, clearly there is more work to be done. A 2019 report from the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction (GlobalABC) shows the buildings and construction sector is not on track to meet emissions targets by 2030 and beyond and without urgent actions “energy demands for this sector could rise by 50 per cent by 2060”. In this report, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) states: “Our analysis shows that the pace of energy efficiency improvement slowed to 1.2 per cent from 2017 to 2018 whereas we need a rate of improvement of three per cent to meet our Sustainable Development goals.” While the report highlights some positive trends in the sector, such as increased penetration of efficient LED lighting systems and an increase in the use of renewables, it reveals disturbing trends. For example: CO 2 emissions from buildings are persistent, staying at about 39 per cent of the worlds total emissions each year, while activities to mitigate emissions are lagging. Increased demand for space cooling is a growing problem, mainly a result of floor space growing 23 per cent since 2010 and building energy consumption growing seven per cent in this timeframe. Urgently needed energy efficiency measures suffer from under- investment. An estimated 75 per cent of Europes current building stock is considered energy inefficient, according to a report from the European Commission. “This means a large part of the energy used goes to waste. Such energy loss can be minimised by improving existing buildings and striving for smart solutions and energy efficient materials.” 4 5 Technologies lead while policies lag The World Resources Institute defines zero-carbon buildings (ZCBs) as “structures that meet all their energy needs by being highly efficient and totally powered by zero-emissions energy, either on-site or off-site”. ZCBs eliminate GHG emissions and increase resilience to climate impacts. The WRI says “energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies are now available just about everywhere, though in many places, policies and regulations have not caught up with technological advancements or the imperative for quick adoption in all buildings”. UNEP, in its 2019 Emissions Gap report, says: “The buildings sector shows only scattered policy action at high levels of mitigation ambition, mainly centred on policymaking in the European Union.” Although six countries and more than 20 cities have committed to zero targets in the buildings sector, UNEP reports a general lack of targets worldwide for achieving zero emissions, performing deep retrofits of existing structures and phasing out fossil fuels for heating. To meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, all buildings must be net zero carbon by 2050. But the building sector faces a difficult road ahead: less than one per cent of todays buildings are considered net zero carbon, according to a WRI report on accelerating decarbonisation. In 2017, only 2,500 net zero energy buildings existed worldwide, including 500 commercial buildings. And these estimates cover only the structures “officially recognised” through green building certification or adherence to a recognised standard. An IPCC report claims that cost-effective technology solutions to reduce energy use and emissions are available. Advances in technology, design practices, knowledge and behavioural changes can achieve a “two to tenfold reduction in energy requirements of new buildings and a two to fourfold reduction for existing buildings”, according to the report. “In existing buildings 50 to 90 per cent energy savings have been achieved throughout the world through deep retrofits.” However, barriers hinder the adoption of these opportunities which in the absence of aggressive policy interventions remain untapped. Even when progressive building designers and smart city leaders focus on energy use and its consequent carbon footprint, they confront a scarcity of strict, well-defined building codes. Attempts to establish tighter energy targets at local government levels are constrained by a lack of consensus on how to design codes which specifically address zero energy and zero carbon measures or how to ensure buildings actually achieve the targets. 6 The Global Climate Community The world does not suffer from a shortage of organisations tackling global emissions and carbon neutrality challenges. Numerous government bodies, alliances, institutes, leadership groups and other entities offer a wide range of policy recommendations, legislation, research, targets and mandates on climate change and building emissions. In 2011, the European Commission released a roadmap for advancing to a competitive low-carbon economy and reducing GHG emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels). The roadmap called for GHG target reductions of 25 per cent by 2020, 40 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2040. In Energy Procedia, researchers from the Politecnico di Torino and International Energy Agency (IEA) write: “This essentially means that the carbon-based society of today which took 200 years to develop would need to radically transform to a new low carbon society in less than 40 years.” C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) European Commission European Environment Agency (EEA) Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction International Finance Corporation (IFC) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) Programme for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (PEEB) The Climate Group UN Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction (GlobalABC) UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) UN Environment Programme (UNEP) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) World Economic Forum (WEF) World Green Building Council (WorldGBC) World Resources Institute (WRI) The global climate community includes: Today, most of the international community is committed to a low carbon future, with the Paris Climate Agreement serving as a global framework for change and innovation. More than 200 countries including European Union member states have ratified the treaty and most have established climate laws and policies. National governments and cities are launching climate reduction initiatives, many of them with the built environment as a primary focus and with strategies, subsidies and financial incentives designed to accelerate the transition to net zero energy buildings. However, the IPCC predicts if the world continues on the current decarbonisation path, it will fall dangerously below the Paris climate targets. An ominous IPCC report in 2018 warned that the world has only 12 years to prevent the planet from warming above 1.5 o C and stressed the urgent need for a global low carbon transformation. “By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 40 to 70 per cent below the levels they were in 2010.” Getting from the current path to a new path and meeting the IPCC targets requires significant changes in energy efficiency in the built environment. To accelerate decarbonisation policies, the WRI created eight pathways each comprising a mix of basic energy efficiency, exemplary energy performance and on- or off-site carbon-free renewable energy. Yet another hurdle is that energy-efficient buildings are not the standard in most countries. “Architects and engineers lack information about technologies and building design, and banks and investors are reluctant to invest,” says the Programme for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (PEEB), whose mission includes transforming the building sector by promoting sustainable buildings, providing technical assistance and redirecting investments towards energy efficiency. GlobalABC claims that “nearzeroenergy construction shares are typically less than five per cent in most markets, and typical renovation rates are around one to two per cent of the building stock per year with 10 to 15 per cent energy intensity improvements”. Achieving sustainability targets requires refurbishment rates “to double and to avoid the lockin of inefficient buildings and their subsequent emissions”. Adding to the complexity of the challenge, the GlobalABC says the buildings and construction sector value chain is fragmented and lacks stakeholder coordination among national and local authorities, international organisations, companies, civil society and financial institutions. Because the building sector is one of the major generators of CO 2 emissions, all new buildings in the EU must be designed according to nearly Zero Energy Buildings (nZEB) criteria starting from 31 December 2020. A European directive requires that existing buildings meet the same nZEB targets defined for new constructions. 7 In March 2020, the European Commission announced its proposed European Climate Law, a legislative mandate for the EU to be climate neutral by 2050. President Ursula von der Leyen says: “We are acting today to make the EU the worlds first climate neutral continent by 2050. The Climate Law is the legal translation of our political commitment, and sets us irreversibly on the path to a more sustainable future. It is the heart of the European Green Deal.” Current climate and energy policies in the EU could be threatened by the coronavirus pandemic. Although the pandemic impact and lockdown measures have led to reduced carbon emissions, governments in coal- intensive countries believe the EU should revisit its European Green Deal targets as national leaders focus on the pandemic and economic recovery. Fazlun Khalid, a UN adviser, says that “scientists have long warned of the inevitability of a pandemic” due to our encroachment on natural ecosystems. Climate change amplifies the risks. Khalid thinks that “if the EU fails to transform its economic priorities, we will be unable to avoid not only the next pandemic, but also an unprecedented climate disaster”. The Financial Times reports that global emissions have plunged during the coronavirus crisis. “Yet despite the potential short-term dip in emissions, there is a risk that the pandemic which is likely to dominate debate for months or even years to come will overshadow environmental concerns. Climate talks have already been delayed and new policy initiatives postponed.” Francesco La Camera, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says pandemic recovery policies should support and accelerate low-carbon development. “COVID-19 does not change the existential path required to decarbonise our societies and meet sustainability goals. By making the energy transition an integral part of the wider recovery, governments can achieve a step change.” La Camera believes recovery measures should include investments in sustainable energy infrastructure and clean energy technologies not in fossil fuels. The U.S. version of a Green New Deal proposed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey might change the way America builds. Implementing this controversial proposal requires a transformation of Americas buildings and construction industry, including the countrys existing buildings. The Green New Deal calls for retrofitting all of them within a decade. In other pre-pandemic actions, New York City enacted a law with its own citywide green new deal. The Climate Mobilisation Act defines measures that include “forcing the owners of the citys large buildings a huge source of its carbon footprint to make them more efficient”. The new law requires large buildings to cut emissions 40 per cent by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2050. 8 9 Strategies for low-carbon innovation The buildings and construction sector faces major hurdles to make the changes needed to reach inter
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